Day 3 of the Goodwood Carnival kicks off this evening from 11pm AEST. While Day 1 didn’t go to plan, The Gurkha landed our strong 4.25 unit best bet of the night at a very nice price to get us back to even for the carnival. We are equally as confident with two runners on the card today at Goodwood with an eye on Big Orange heading towards the Melbourne Cup in the futures markets also. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Day 1 Result: -3.75 units
Day 2 Result: +3.75 units
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Goodwood Race 2 – 1200m – Richmond Stakes Group 2
1. Mehmas: Strong win at this distance in this class last start at Newbury. Very good 2nd previous run behind Caravaggio and previous two runs around Global Applause including a win certainly are top class 2YO sprint form. Looks very well suited and the barrier should give him every available option.
2. Ardad: Two strong wins before being well beaten last start in what looked a forgive run. Best run was clearly a Soft track win at Ascot when demolishing the field. Respect his class.
3. Blue Point: 11 length smashing in a much easier race last start at Doncaster. The ratings suggest it was as good as it looked as well. Hard to beat.
4. Intelligence Cross: Very good maiden win at Curragh. Ran much better than expected at Newbury behind Mehmas last start. Can run well again.
5. Waqaas: Easy win last start in MUCH easier grade when 2.3L winner at Doncaster. Previous run behind Dream of Dreams was decent at Haydock also.
Comments: Mehmas has the ‘form’ on the board but Blue Point has the runs. There really are only two runners I could consider in the race and Blue Point gets the big tick of approval.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Back Blue Point for 4 units @ $2.00
Goodwood Race 3 – 3200m – Goodwood Cup Group 2
2. Big Orange: Old mate put in one of his best career runs last start at Newbury when demolishing a very strong field that included The Grey Gatsby by 2.6L. Ran a close 2nd three back in Dubai behind a very good horse in Vazirabad running the horse to the wire. 2400m up to 3200m looks an ideal lead in and I really feel he is going better than he ever has based on the first up run.
3. Commissioned: 4300m winner at Ascot first up back to 3200m isn’t the ideal form line you want to follow, but there really isn’t too much between the distances for a type like Commissioned. Certainly his toughest task to date though.
4. Curbyourenthusiasm: Always very well placed in the past this talented stayer. Won 3 and placed seconds in his last six runs. Only run last prep (2 months back) was a 0.6L second in a six horse 2800m race. Has to improve to measure up.
5. Glaring: First up. Has placed in this grade in the past twice. Looked a good type in 2014/15 when running around in group races and placing, but last prep only two months back saw him well beaten on both attempts. Struggle to suggest.
6. Kinema: Well placed this prep with two good wins in a row at Goodwood and Ascot over 2800m and 2400m. Much firmer ground today though and up to 3200m first time a few negatives.
7. Oriental Fox: Three runs this prep and been well off a win after a strong last prep. Hard to back on current form but does have more to offer.
8. Pallasator: Will improve onwards today after a disappointing 4th last start. Very good win in Group 3 class first up this prep and has won at Group 2 level in the previous prep also. Has ability.
9. Quest For More: Two runs this prep and has been fairly disappointing being defeated by some average types in listed company. Has to take the next step up again here and find some form.
10. Sandro Botticelli: Soft track win last start in listed grade after some fairly average runs in group class when didn’t get within 4L of a win. Best runs in the past have been on wetter.
11. Sheikhzayedroad: His best is more than good enough to measure up and win here. Last prep first up won over 2800m by nearly 4 lengths in Group 3 class over in Dubai. Ran a very respectable 3rd behind Order of St George over the 4000m. Back to the 3200m looks well suited. Looks one of the main dangers to the favourite.
12. Suegioo: Hasn’t gone close this prep apart form the 2nd to Pallasator when beaten 2.3L. Hard to suggest.
13. The Twisler: Looked to have talent last prep when up for a long time getting a listed grade win at Goodwood.. but has failed to fire two runs in this prep. Take on.
14. Wicklow Brave: Probably should have beaten Dartmouth first up when jockey dropped the whip beaten 0.3L. Well beaten next start over 2400m. Group 1 placed previous pre over 2800m and in Group 2 grade.
15. Sword Fighter: Gets 8kg on the field as a 3YO. Certainly the untapped potential of the field and may very much be heading out for the Melbourne Cup if he puts in a good run. Best peak runs in the past have been on firmer and even with the weight advantage will have to find a career peak.
Comments: Big Orange is a massive price here today. His last start run as well as his run three back in Dubai would simply win this race. I’m very keen to bet here!
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Big Orange for 2 units Each-Way @ $5.1/$1.94
Goodwood Race 4 – 2800m – Markel Insurance Fillies’ Stakes
1. California: CL3 winner last start over 2400m at Ascot having failed the previous two starts in harder company. Steps up in distance again which has to be considered a positive, but will need to run another career peak to be winning here today.
2. Elysian Fields: Well beaten first up over this distance. Back to much easier grade and got the win, only just. Struggle to suggest in this grade.
3. Mill Springs: Dettori onboard. Ver nice run over 4000m last start for 2rd at Ascot. Back to 2800m where she produced her best run last prep to win in 3YO listed grade. Has ability and looks suited to the task back to a firmer track.
4. Pamona: Listed grade winner heading into this today on a firm surface. Group 2 placed over 2400m as a 3YO in that grade. Comes into this with the highest rated run of the lot. Has to be respected.
5. Tioga Pass: Good run two back at course over 2400m in easier grade. Last start in harder company was a fair run but didn’t get close. Struggle to suggest.
6. Twitch: J Mac onboard. Well backed today after a strong 2nd in FM-LR grade last start at Newbury. Hasn’t won in more than a year is a bit of a concern but has been running well in decent grade races over these distances.
7. Yarrow: Nice enough 2nd at Ponti last start beating some okay types. Up to 2800m which should be no issue. Respect her ability.
Comments: Pamona’s last start run at York was no fluke. It was a strong win and has her well in here today. Worthy of a small bet at the price if you are interested.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Pamona to win.
