Day 2 of the Goodwood Carnival kicks off this evening and we come off a Day 1 that just didn't go our way. Our first bet of the Carnival pulled its head off the whole way around and ran a respectable third, while our main bet of the night was simply outclassed on the day with the favourite in the race having the run to suit with the speed on out the front. There is one clear strong bet on the card with two value runners that stand out. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Goodwood Race 2 – 2400m – Beringice Gordon Stakes
1. Goldmember: Well beaten last start at Newbury behind Houseofparliament on a similar rated track to today. Has to improve to measure up.
2. Harrison: Fair run last start when 3rd behind Houseofparliament. Previous two runs well beaten in easier grade so that was the peak run so far. Back to 2400m but similar rated ground should see him in the race at the finish.
3. Platitude: 2nd in the same race as the two runners above. Imrpoved onwards as they did also to measure up to a Group 3 race. I do personally have a few questions over the form out of the race though.
4. Prize Money: The 'class horse' heading into the race. On ratings, he has put in the best performance of any horse here by a country mile, it's just whether he can repeat that effort after failing last start at Newbury.
5. Qatari Hunter: Four wins in a row this prep progressing through the grades. Up to 2400m today and ratings suggest he has to take another step forward. One to consider.
6. Shogun: Well beaten three runs in a row which is a big concern. Hasn't won in 8 runs and continues to be well backed. Hard to suggest.
7. Steel of Madrid: Fairly beaten last start with no real excuses outside of it being a soft track. Decent listed win in 4 horse race two back also. Rates well enough to win here.
8. The Major General: Listed race winner three back which was respectable before being fairly beaten the last two times out including a loss to Qatari Hunter. Has to improve but is in this race certainly.
9. Ulysses: 8 length winner two back at Newbury before failing over 2400m in Group 1 class last start at Epsom. Obviously a good type of horse and will run better than what was shown last start.
Comments: There are certainly concerns about Prize Money showing us his peak run today, but if he turns up he simply has the ratings to be winning this. I can't let the prize go by without finding out.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Prize Money for 0.75 units @ $9.6/$3.20 Each-Way
Goodwood Race 3 – 1600m – Qatar Sussex Stakes
1. Gabrial: Ran a career peak last start when 2.5L 3rd in Group 2 class at Ascot in Group 2 company. Up to Group 1 company today. Has to improve onwards again today to just be placing. Has ability to be there at the end.
2. Kodi Bear: Best run in the past was at course and distance in Group 2 company when winning very well on a Soft track. Just firmer today and three runs this prep have shown us nothing. Hard to have.
3. Lightning Spear: First up at Ascot can very well for a 1.9L 3rd behind Tepin! The race rated highly and it was a good return to the track after a few bad runs to end last prep. On a firm track over 1600m last prep put in a solid run. Has to run a career best but being 2nd up here I see no reason why that can't be the case today.
4. Richard Pankhurst: Nice enough type but best runs in past are well off a win here. Take on.
5. So Beloved: Three runs this prep have all been well below the ratings needed to be placing here. Take him on.
6. Toormore: Always runs a decent race but the past four races have seen him well beaten on similar surfaces over 1600m. Has to find a return to form that I can't see being there.
7. Awtaad: Smashed Galileo Gold two runs back at the Curragh. Last start I thought every chance in comparison to The Gurkha and was beaten home. Obviously a good type and he is going well right now, but others preferred at the prices.
8. Galileo Gold: Good win last start at Ascot when got away with murder out front and won it with the ride. This guy is certainly a good horse and one of the top 3 horses in this race.. but he is well under the odds today for mine. I want to take him on.
9. Ribchester: Ran a career best winning last start over 1400m at Ascot. Well beaten two back 3rd behind Galileo Gold though. Firmer track today.. I can't have him.
10. The Gurkha: Class runner. 5.6L Group 1 win three runs back over in France on a Good surface. Run two back saw him get beaten on the day by the way the race was run and tactics. Last start up to Group 1 class ran very well 2nd to Hawkbill in a high rating race… his best runs this prep though were still on firmer tracks and gets that here.
Comments: There are only four real chances in this race on my ratings in The Gurkha, Galileo Gold, Awtaad and Lightning Spear. The track is suited to the two top picks for us here also in The Gurkha and Lightning Spear.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: The Gurkha for 4.25 units @ $2.88. Lightning Spear for 0.75 units @ $15.50.
Goodwood Race 4 – 1000m – Victoria Racing Club Molecomb Stakes
I'm not going to give you a runner by runner breakdown of this one as there is no real point. There are several runners with winning chances here today. Global Applause and The Last Lion deserve to be favourites, but both are under their correct odds. Big Time Baby looks to have progression and so does Sportsmanship. There are still two others below $11 in the market as well i haven't even mentioned. The horse simply at the wrong odds comes off different form lines over in France – Rapacity Alexander. The Listed 2YO win two runs back was a very strong win and then she wasn't disgraced 5th last start in Group 3 company either. Back to a firmer track here, she will be in the finish if a repeat of two back is shown here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Rapacity Alexander for 1 unit @ $22/5.80 Each-Way
