Welcome to The Profits preview for Day 2 of the Goodwood Carnival. Rain is expected to hit the Goodwood track overnight and give us a nice Soft surface on Wednesday. There are just the two races on the day that give us the right types of horses and ratings to bet and we are very confident with what will most likely be the best bet for the carnival. Looking forward to continuing the Day 1 momentum. I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Goodwood Race 4 – Ribchester – 7 units @ $2.10 to win.
Goodwood Race 3 – Happy Like a Fool – 2.5 units @ $2.75 to win. Havana Grey – 1.25 units @ $5.00 to win.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Race 3 – Bombay Sapphire Molecomb Stakes – 1000m
Won the past five years with an average Timeform rating of 120… top of 122 low of 115.
Havana Grey won the last start in Sizzling time at Sandown Park and recorded a 120 Timeform rating. Hasn’t been sighted on wetter surfaces just yet but with a double Irish breed, you would have to believe he will handle it just fine.
Invincible Army continues to put together solid runs and past start in Group 2 company ran a respectable 4th behind Cardsharp at Newmarket. Looked the winner at one stage but faded late.
Happy Like a Fool came to the UK with a huge 117+ Timeform rating but failed to deliver on it first up producing a 112+ at Ascot to run second on the day. Clearly looks the type to have the ability but has to improve again.
Sound and Silence has to be considered a big chance after a strong neck victory at Ascot two back recording a 115+ Timeform rating for the effort.
Comments: I really couldn’t see any horse outside of the four listed above making enough improvement to win. Happy Like a Fool and Havana Grey are the true 1000m horses of the race and look best suited here. We can back both and still come out with a nice result.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Happy Like a Fool – 2.5 units @ $2.75. Havana Grey – 1.25 units @ $5.00.
Race 4 – Qatar Sussex Stakes – 1600m
A quality renewal of this race, the past three winners have recorded Timeform ratings of 130, 130 and 132, numbers that won’t be even close to what is required to get the win today.
Ribchester has conquered all before coming into this race today with a Soft track win over the distance at Newbury recording a 137 Timeform rating and then last start on a Firm surface at Ascot recording a 134+ Timeform rating, two runs in a row that would have won the past four years races. Excluding the Meydan run, his previous two starts before that were 132 and 134 rated… he is the real deal and consistent. Most importantly, he handles a wet surface and has recorded his best ratings on them.
Churchill has the X factor to contest this race with Ribchester today. His very best run came two starts ago at the Curragh recording a 133+ Timeform rating on a Good to Soft track beating Thunder Snow by 2.5 lengths. He failed to fire the last start at Ascot but his very best here will obviously test the favourite.
Lancaster Bomber is an interesting runner in the race. Last start recorded a 129 Timeform rating with a strong second behind Barney Roy, beating home Churchill on the day. Barney Roy has gone onwards to win another Group 1 since that run. Best form though has been on the dryer surfaces.
Lightning Spear’s best run 4 back at Ascot saw him run within 1.5L of Ribchester… and he would need to find that 1.5L today to be considered.
Zelzal the French radar is being considered a chance in the race with a Timeform rating of 128. Personally, I have to take the horse on here as the two favourites would need to lose lengths and Zelzal to improve lengths to turn the tables.
Comments: This for mine on paper is a race in two between Ribchester and Churchill. From everything I’ve seen, Ribchester is the more consistent of the two and has the ratings on the board to take this race today. Most importantly, Ribchester’s best form has come with the rain and that is expected to hit overnight.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Ribchester – 7 units @ $2.10
