Welcome to The Profits preview for Day 1 of the Goodwood Carnival. At time of writing the track is Good to soft (good in some places) and the radar doesn’t suggest much rain on the radar heading into this meeting so I’d be surprised if the track got any softer and we are doing form based off those conditions. There looks to be a few solid bets starting Day 1 and we hope to kick the carnival off with some positive results. I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Goodwood Race 5 – Tribal Quest – 6 units @ $3.50 to win
Goodwood Race 3 – Limato 2.25 units Each-Way @ $4.50/$1.87
Goodwood Race 1 – Garcia – 1 unit @ $7.00 to win. UAE Prince – 1 unit $8.60 to win
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Goodwood Race 1 – Matchbook Betting Exchange – 2000m
A nice wide-open race to start the carnival over the 2000m distance.
This really looks a quality renewal of the race with several horses that would have taken out last years races on ratings alone.
In their past 4 runs, Master Carpenter, Murad Khan, Tha’ir, Eddystone Rock, Noble Gift, Speed Company, UAE Prince, Garcia, Erik the Red, Oasis Fantasy and Dark Red have all delivered 120 or above Timeform ratings.
Of those 11 runners, only Tha’ir, Noble Gift, UAE Prince, Garcia and Erik the Red have hit this mark twice or more.
In these races, I’m always looking for the consistently good horses that can repeat the best efforts that will be needed to take out a race like this.
Tha’Ir is a horse I just have to take on having not run in a year and a half coming off a fail in the start of 2016.
Comments: The two standouts on my form both bring the strong Ballet Concerto form line into this race after both running very well first up.
Confidence: 80%
Strategy: Garcia – 1 unit @ $7.00 to win. UAE Prince – 1 unit $8.60 to win
Goodwood Race 3 – Qatar Lennox Stakes – 1400m
Limato is the most interesting runner here. Limato has run the highest career peak in this race but a significant margin and that win came over 1400m. First up run by Limato was Very Very good running a 133+ Timeform rating while the next start was a step backwards. The step up to 1400m is key today and that is the distance we saw Limato run a career peak on in the past. The firmer the track, the better the horse will run.
Oh This Is Us has run up to the mark in past preps but the past three runs have been nowhere near good enough to measure up here.
Aclaim has also run well enough back in 2016 but the two 2017 runs are far short of what is needed.
Librisa Breeze has run well first up over the shorter distance and back up to the 1400m today can step back up to the career peaks of 131+ and be a factor.
Home of the Brave Has run 131+ and 131 the past two starts and can improve on those runs to measure up as a chance here.
Dream Castle is a lightly raced type that measured up well in 3YO grade races but the best run was over 1600m two back and has to find more over this distance.
Comments: As good as we get a Good track surface – which from all weather reports, I’m expecting, I can’t see Limato getting beat with a run close to a peak performance today. The speed will be on throughout and the faster they go the better for this talented 5YO.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Limato 2.25 units Each-Way @ $4.50/$1.87
Goodwood Race 4 – Qatar Goodwood Cup Stakes – 3200m
Big Orange was a huge run and win last start over 4000m holding off a fast finishing Order of St George in running a career peak 129+ Timeform rating. Previous to that run, he ran a huge 3250m win over 3250m winning by a lazy 5.1 lengths on the day. His very best work is done on Good surfaces and as said above, we expect the correct surface to be presented today. Handles weight and loves this distance.
Sheikhzayedroad wasn’t suited last start by the extra distance offered up last start and ran an 118 Timeform rating, the first below 120 in the past 5 runs. This horse has run a 126 rating twice in the past 4 starts suggesting a top run from this 8YO over the 3200m distance would see him well in here and could test Big Orange.
US Army Ranger has been backed into 2nd favourite but has never recorded a run beyond 125+, with a 122 the best at closest to this distance. I really struggle to suggest the horse in this race.
Wicklow Brave has had 4 solid runs this prep including a G1 win over the hurdles while coming back to the flat and running nice enough 4th to Red Cardinal two back in the USA and 2nd in a Group 2 as favourite at the Curragh last start. Has to improve but rates well enough.
Comments: Big Orange is certainly the one to beat but I struggle to get down to the $1.88 price even with Simple Verse and Dal Harraild being scratched. Sheikhzayedroad looks the main danger to the favourite and looks a great place price.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Sheikhzayedroad to place ($3.60 best currently, probably higher Betfair on the day)
Goodwood Race 5 – Irish Throughbred Marketing Stakes – 1200m
It isn’t often that I’m wanting to get involved in a Maiden race on such a big day of racing, but I just can’t pass up the chance with Tribal Quest today.
This is a race that in the past has been won the past five years with an average timeform rating of 102, with the highest being 107 and lowest 94.
Coming into this race, Every horse has a timeform rating of 100 or below outside of Tribal Quest who recorded a 104+ Timeform rating last start. Third up today, Tribal Quest will be rock hard fit and I find it incredibly difficult to see any of these horses improving past him today.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Tribal Quest – 6 units @ $3.50 to win
