Looking at one key race at Geelong on Wednesday, we are keen on a $31 shot to blow them away from out front. This is the type of play that on the stables ratings (read in comments) pays off in the long term, but could very well blow up in our face on the day with the horse falling out a long last as well. Based on the profiling and what we know about the stable, we are confident to take the bet and take trust in the odds we have set as being correct for the horse. As always, enjoy the day and good luck!
Geelong Race 7 – 2400m – Geelong Cup
1. Gallante: Likely to lead them along or sit outside of Grey Lion throughout the race and push a strong final 800m tempo. Ignore strong Naturalism run a month ago that will have brought the horse on. Step up to 2400m ideal and onto what i’m hoping will be a Soft track, he is a huge blowout chance and the market may just regret taking him on.
2. Lizzie L’Amour: Group 1 winner over 2000m back in NZ and G3 winner over 2400m. Both wins were on soft tracks and the horse has a tremendous record of 4 starts for 5 wins on soft tracks. Crying out for the rain that is expected to hit in the morning. Flying when blocked for runs two back at Moonee Valley. Felt the hard track last start in the Cranbourne Cup. Has the speed to be pushed forward from the barrier today to find a position just off the leaders.
3. Berisha: Flew home last start in the Cranbourne Cup for second. Up to this distance helps again but only a fair wet record and this is another jump up in class for mine. Has the ability but feel his barrier and racing pattern are against.
4. Gallic Chieftain: Best runs in the past have been on dry tracks but he doesn’t mind soft at all with a 2400m soft 6 win to end last prep. Beaten favourite in the Herbert Power fairly last start but just keeps improving after every run. This stable has him right today and from the barrier will be hard to hold out.
5. Grey Lion: Best runs in the past have all been on wetter tracks so any rain will help his chances. In the Cranbourne Cup he ran a very respectable 3rd from on speed. Can go on with it here.
6. Fanatic: Well beaten in the Herbert Power and Benella Cup prior. Struggle to see this horse turn around the form and hates it wet.
7. Vengeur Masque: Loves a hot tempo and may get that here today. Nice enough run last start for 8th. Has to improve.
8. Kellstorm: Ran well last start at Flemington for his first ever placing on a good surface. Made the step up to Group class and emasured up. With string out of the track today and rain around with the right ride from the barrier could be very hard to defeat.
9. Settler’s Stone: Top weight last start when they crawled around and ran well considering. Previous start out sprinted a concern by easier types. Best good enough but i can’t see it.
10. Violate: Worked for the last start win at Caulfield and makes a huge jump in class, up in distance and onto a wetter surface. Looks the one to take on here.
11. Wheal Leisure: Have to respect this runner. Stable is flying and she won first up on Soft 5 and was a strong winner last start over two quality horses. Query frst run 2400m for prep.
12. Kawabata: Flew home from back last start at Moonee Valley in a much easier race. Doesn’t have a great record on wetter tracks but goes well enough. Step up needed.
Comments: Expecting the track to be a soft 5 to soft 6 depending on just how much rain hits the track int he morning. Weir holds one of the keys to this race with two well backed runners while I can’t ignore the Williams runner not the Baker yard runner who both are crying out to the rain gods. Kellstorm and Gallic Chieftain will be very hard to beat here and Lizzie could very well measure up again today, but I just have to go with the value of the race here in Gallante. This is a stable that gets it right more often than they get it wrong. Most importantly, they are running a 26% winners to runners the past 12 months (49% place) for horses Second Up (only 9% first up) with a 60% ROI at tote odds in that time. Their horses at 2401m+ the past 12 months are winning at 20% and placing an amazing 60%.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Gallante – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $31/$7.00
