In recent years, the Geelong Cup has really fallen away to the point where last year’s edition didn’t feature one top class horse. The 2015 edition of the Geelong Cup is a step up from years past with some serious horses involved. It’s great to see what has traditionally been a strong lead-in race being used as a stepping stone once again. The grass course at Geelong doesn’t get used as much as it should, so it’s hard to predict exactly how the bias will trend. If it’s anything like the last few years, you want to be on horses closer to the speed.
Geelong Race 7 – Geelong Cup
1. Quest For More: Opened $8+ and has been backed into $5. Missed a Caulfield Cup run as first emergency on the weekend and had been working well coming into that run… so it’s expected that he will be ready to fire today. 7 runs over this distance in the past and he hasn’t missed a place. Wide barrier a major disadvantage today, but he will be pushing forward and end up most likely on speed.
2. Dandino: Going very well this prep as proven by the 1L 4th in Group 1 company last start at Flemington. Will enjoy the step up to 2400m today as well. Barrier should have him in the right spot. Favourite.
3. Bonfire: Didn’t measure up to the top level last start in Group 1 company over this distance, but did run well the previous run in WFA-G1 class. On speed from a good barrier. Would love rain to come.
4. Guardini: Drew well today in barrier 6. Has been backed since opening quote came out. WFA-G2 winner in Germany and 3Y-GP3 winner in France over these distances. Last four runs been well off a win, but has been out here for long enough and has the ability clearly.
5. Sertorius: Disappointing run last start over the 2400m well beaten in Group 2 company. Can’t see the required improvement today.
6. Almoonqith: Looking for the distance today based on his Group 3 win over 2800m over in Dubai. Needs to improve on last three runs to be taking this one out today and awkward barrier doesn’t help.
7. Crafty Cruiser: His last three runs haven’t been up to standard to win this, but he always runs well and you just can’t sack him. Decent place price.
8. Orbec: Measured up over this distance in France. Since arriving in Aus has run well enough over these distances but hasn’t struck a win yet. Was fair from on speed beaten 3L last start in Group 1 company by Magic Hurricane.
9. Genuine Lad: Good record over in Tasmania but his last two runs suggest this is beyond him currently this prep. Take on.
10. Kapour: Well beaten last start at Flemington. Obviously better than that run on what we saw previously. Looking for a wet track.
11. Sonntag: The people’s horse. Has been trained as always for set races and this looks to be that run today. Obviously wants further to find his best. Measured up in similar class in the past.
12. Maygrove: Ran home quite well last start at Flemington and looks to be going the right way. Group 2 winner over in new Zealand over this distance last prep and the stable is obviously flying. Rates well here.
13. Manndawi: Another import going around today. Maiden only winner in 3YO class over in France. Has a WFA-LR placing on record and did run 2nd to FLintshire in a 3Y-GP1 in his first prep also… long time since that form though.
14. Ethiopia: Hasn’t won for a long time and that’s because he just isn’t going well enough to be winning in this grade. Take on again.
15. Renew: 4th up today, his last start run was back on track and he has been set for these next two races. Probably needs further to find his best is the issue.
16. De Little Engine: Took a long time to get into his runs last prep and his last start run didn’t inspire me to be on today. Has the ability.
17. Don Doremo: Been set for these distances this prep… best runs last prep were over 2000-2400m. Has to improve.
18. Disclaimer: Not going well enough to suggest he can place on recent form.
Comments: Quest For More, Dandino, Bonfire, Guardini, Orbec and Maygrove look the 6 horses that have to be considered chances to win today. While i can see Guardini running well, i’m willing to risk the horse against the exposed form today. I’m also willing to risk Bonfire at this distance today based on how the horse ran last start and previous ratings at this distance. I think Maygrove will be running a great race and is overs at the odds, but I just can’t have the horse over a few others in the race. Orbec is the horse in the race crying out for the rain to come with no wins to date on a Good track. It’s on the radar, the more that comes the more you have to consider the horse. If the track condition is as expected (good 4 to soft 5) then Dandino and Quest for More are clearly the two to beat.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Dandino to win. Saver bet Quest For More.
