Welcome to The Profits form guide for 5 May 2016 at Warrnambool. Day Two looked a tough day on the cards and it certainly was. We went with some value and it didn’t play off. Overall we are still well up from Day One heading into Day Three. There is a lot more on offer today in terms of three bets we like and it’s time to go hard or go home as we are betting at the Bool. Hopefully we can land a few good bets and end the carnival in style. Looking forward to some great flat and jumping action and avoiding the Quaddie. There are four bets on the cards for me today and in an unlikely turn of events, two of those are lays! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bets
Warrnambool Race 8 – Falago for 1.5 units @ $9/$3.10 Each-Way
Warrnambool Race 7 – Thubiaan for 1.5 units @ $5.00. Regina Coeli for 0.5 units @ $13
Warrnambool Race 5 – Like The Clappers for 0.75 units @ $8/$2.75 Each-Way
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Warrnambool Race 1
Shiny Manners: is no mug. His run two back 2nd at Oakbank behind Auld Burns was respectable coming into this. Last start at Gawler was a little disappointing but I think he is crying out for a wetter track. His last two runs on heavy were very good 2nds and he should run well here.
Hucknall: 2nds in the past over the jumps to good types on Zataglio and a 3rd two runs back to Valediction. Always runs well and handles heavy tracks with no troubles. Will be at top fitness today.
Twin Tea Bags: 4 runs for 0 places on a heavy track in the past. Beat Big Ben Chimes over the jumps four back and then ran 3rd to About The Journey three back. Two runs in this prep leading into this have been okay for lead in runs. Needs to handle the track.
Gold Medals: Nice enough type jumping up in distance to hurdles again. 0 wins on Heavy an issue though, but did handle one last year when 3rd to Practiced over the hurdles. Have to consider.
Cross Constance: 5 runs 0 places on heavy and they were very bad. 1 win on soft from 12 starts. Looking for dryer.
Celtic Prince: Nice enough type with a 2600m 2nd to Signoff on the record. Went around $1.70 favourite over the hurdles last start and was beaten 15L by Angelology. 1 win 0 places from 5 starts on soft and 1 place from 3 starts on heavy. Questionable on the heavy 10.
Comments: I wish i had the balls to play this race hard, but this is a very uncertain race. I would be laying the two favourites and hoping for a result or simply laying Twin Tea Bags. Hucknall is the clear value in the race on my ratings.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Hucknall to win.
Warrnambool Race 5
Like The Clappers is a standout runner here. The horse always runs well at the bool and produces his very best runs second up and on heavy tracks. He gets everything to suit today including the 1700m distance.
Comments: There are a bunch of horses in this race with no chance while there are 4-5 that can win. Very happy to take the E/W odds on offer for the Clapper.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Like The Clappers for 0.75 units @ $8/$2.75 Each-Way
Warrnambool Race 7
Thubiaan: Ran fine in the lead in when favourite over a distance that is simply unsuitable. His very best runs have been over this distance in the past. No issues with the track condition.
Regina Coeli: Hasn’t won since this race last year. Goes best over distance and goes best on wet track. Lead in runs haven’t inspired confidence though.
No Song No Supper: Yet to measure up over a distance beyond 3500m. Last prep won a few solid races in easier class. Obviously loves it wet and heavy.
Valediction: Got the win on Tuesday beating King Triton home. Massive step up in distance here that I personally don’t see suiting the horse on what we have seen in the past on this heavy track. Well under the odds here for mine.
Bold Zamour: Doesn’t win out of turn. Last start run just got the win heading into this today. Should run well enough.
Mannertone: Stays the distance which is important here. Never won on heavy from 9 starts a massive issue. Can run well.
Danadoozie: First run well up in distance and just a 5YO. Not convinced at all he is suited by the heavy track or the distance.
Spying on You: Just beaten last start by Bold Zamour. Never won on heavy. Others preferred.
Comments: I’m keen to take the two favourites on today and go with the horses proven with the class over this distance in Thubiaan and Regina Coeli.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Thubiaan for 1.5 units @ $5.00. Regina Coeli for 0.5 units @ $13
Warrnambool Race 8
Falago is the horse i’m most interested in here today. Maps perfectly from barrier 3 today and has 2 runs for 2 wins on Heavy tracks in the past. Falago went around favourite over Master Zephyr last start on a Good track at Terang. Today he finds himself in this race down 1.5kg while Master Zephyr goes up 1kg. He is 1 run for 1 win at this track and his very best is more than good enough to win this.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Falago for 1.5 units @ $9/$3.10 Each-Way
