Welcome to The Profits form guide for 3 May 2016 at Warrnambool. Day One of the carnival kicks off with several short priced runners and i’m not having a bar of it. Looking forward to some great flat and jumping action and avoiding the Quaddie. There are four bets on the cards for me today and in an unlikely turn of events, two of those are lays! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Warrnambool Race 2 – LAY (Bet Against) Extra Zero for 2 units @ $2.00 (up to $2.30)
Other Best Bet
Warrnambool Race 7 – Turnitaround for 1.5 units @ $3.20 to win
Warrnambool Race 8 – LAY (Bet Against) Grand Dreamer for 1.5 units @ $2.20 (up to $2.50)
Best Value Bet
Warrnambool Race 6 – Nishiazabu for 0.5 unit @ $19/$4.60
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Warrnambool Race 1
With the favourite Eliza’s Viscount coming out, this is Fastnet Isle’s race to lost. Going through the grades, Fastnet Isle has looked goow ining a maiden and then a R-58 race with ease last start over 2430. Looks to be wanting the distance and only query is the horses ability to handle the wet.
Monte Carlo looks an value E/W value runner here on the first run over hurdles this prep, but very hard to trust on the last three runs.
Savvy Dancer has to be considered a chance having won BM-90 grade over 2500m.. but that was 2013 and the form since has been bad.
Shearer is the main threat to the favourite according to the market and I can understand why. Last prep went close 2nd in BM-82 grade at Morphetville in his best run over 2600m. Will stay and is with the right trainer/jockey combo here also. Handles wet also.
Comments: Not sure I could plunge into the odds for Fastnet Isle here as there are better bets over the day. Shearer looks the best priced horse in the race while Monte Carlo looks an okay price to place.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Shearer to win.
Warrnambool Race 2
There are four chances in this race. Let’s start with the favourite Extra Zero. WFA-G1 placed and has measure dup at the top level up to 2000m in the past. This is a horse that has never shown an ability to handle a genuine wet track with 15 runs on soft or heavy for 2 places. The distance is a question, jumping is a question and the track condition is a question. There is no doubt he has the ability required, but is $2 a massive trap here?
Jileks Spur is a hard horse to catch. On previous preps it’s safe to say he needs further than the 3200m to find his very best, but his last two runs over hurdle sin this class were close 2nds to Zataglio and Vatuvei who have proven to be very handy over the hurdles.. franking his form. I would suggest his lead in runs haven’t been awesome, but he is proven here and loves it wet.
Paraggi is the final runner that you would expect to measure up here today. Has run well in BM-78 grade and above in the city in previous preps over 2500m+ and has placed 2nd and 3rd over maiden hurdles last season. Lead in runs left a bit to be desired, but he is a high chap so there is no issues with ground or distance.
Comments: I’m convinced the price on Extra Zero is wrong. He could win by lengths here, but there are too many questions to be asked and i’m happy to ask those questions at the price by laying him.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: LAY Extra Zero for 2 units @ $2.00 (lay up to $2.30).
Warrnambool Race 3
Ancient King is a proven horse over distances and especially on wet tracks. He even won an Open grade 2000m race to start the prep at Colac and a close 1.5L 6th the next start over 2400m at Bendigo. His form this prep is much better than what let into his first hurdles campaign last prep and I think he looks a great betting prospect here.
Evangelist is an obvious danger based on his very best runs, but we really haven’t seen him perform beyond 2400m which was way back in 2013 at Lingfield running 3rd behind Cafe Society. He did win and beat Quest for MOre over 2330m at Bath the run before… but since he came out here in 2014, they have never run him over 2000m and you have to believe there is a reason for that? Most importantly, he has been kept to dryer tracks since coming out here also. Alot of warning signs that point to a no back for me today.
Honey Steel’s Gold looked a good stayer in 2013/14. He ran 3rd in listed grade over 2400m then 2nd (7L) over 2800 in the St Leger. since then he has been kept under 2400m and his best runs over 2400m and 2300m have been 5L off a win. His last start effort in the Vobis Gold Heath wasn’t bad at all. First run over this distance ever. First run over the hurdles. 8 starts on soft or heavy for 1 win 4 places.
Livery looks the type that should handle the step up to the 3200m today with two solid runs over 1600 and then 2520 heading into this. Fitness levels would be my only concern stepping up to the distance for the first time. Should handle the track.
Not sure what to make of Transfixed. Took 16 runs to get a maiden win but did win by 6 lengths last start…. didn’t beat much?
Comments: I’d be leaning to Ancient King to win this one, but i’d also suggest there isn’t a great deal between Livery and Honey Steel’s Gold on my ratings either, so i’m not sure I could be confidently betting.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Ancient King to win.
Warrnambool Race 6
Thubiaan won his last start by 15 lengths over the 4950. Previous start over 3250 was beaten by Nishiazabu by 3 lengths though! Both runs on dry ground. His best ratings in the past have been on wetter surfaces for mine…. very best is over further also. Expect a solid run but certainly has to be at peak fitness with top weight here over this distance.
Lord of the Song went around favourite at Oakbank over the 4950 last start but was well beaten into 3rd. SOmething was clearly not right that day. Past results suggest his clearly better over further and the wetter the better.
Nishiazabu‘s last win was over Thubiann and Lord of the Song over a similar distance. That was after a 21L win the previous race also. Last start over similar distance a few weeks back 17L 4th. Best runs have been on dryer also.
Valediction always seems to run well when needed. Four runs back this prep and got the win two runs back while just beaten last start by earthbound. Soft track a positive and goes well at the Bool.
Earthbound got the win over Valediction leading into this. Previous run was well beaten by Now and Zen though. Previous form suggests he has to be considered, especially as a 7YO on the way up.
Danzadoozie is a 6YO that shot onto the scene the past two runs with strong wins at the Bool and then at Hamilton. Comes into this having everything to prove.
Comments: Wide open race as the betting suggests. I really thought the price for Valediction was well under the odds and shouldn’t be favourite, even at the weights. I couldn’t have Earthbound or Danzadoozie also as they go through the grades. Thubiann should go well here but can I take the horse at the weights? All signs point to me forgiving Nishiazabu for the last start run and smashing the huge odds on offer here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Nishiazabu for 0.5 unit @ $19/$4.60
Warrnambool Race 7
Tristram’s Sun: was piss poor for us on the weekend. Back to 1700m and the sting out of the ground, a win really wouldn’t shock me.
Araldo Junior: showed last prep enough quality to suggest he could be winning this race today.. but has no wet condition form at all. First up run was very bad.
Backbone: hasn’t won since 2014 and I can’t see that turning around today on the three previous runs.
Turnitaround: was a huge win second up at Flemington in harder grade. Has a very good record at this track and should position on speed from barrier 1. Looks well suited and hard to beat here.
Extra Noble: wasn’t a bad run last start behind Turnitaround.. but he needs to improve on that run to be beating Turnitaround from this barrier today.
Try Four: was a nice win first up over 1400m and then a big fail last start. A month between runs though.. obviously has strong ability.
Mossbeat: always seems to run nicely for the stable but hasn’t won in yonks and that was on a heavy track. Suspect the going won’t be an issue today.. but not sure I could jump in at the odds.
Bunchloch: looks well outclassed here.
Vincent’s Thirst: has been running well enough this prep but not winning and this is a big step up in class. Maps okay though could place?
Recalculate: Well supported here. Maps okay from the barrier. Never missed a place on a wet track from 5 starts. Only run here was a win. Best runs over lesser distances it would be suggested though. Last start run 4th to Red Bomber was good but has to improve here i’d suggest.
Luckzat: is hard to suggest here on last prep runs.
Comments: Very happy to take the price on offer today for Tunritaround. About 4-5 chances in this race and while Tristram’s Sun is obviously value again, I can’t suggest the horse here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Turnitaround for 1.5 units @ $3.20 to win
Warrnambool Race 8
Lunayir: Hasn’t won since 2013. Hasn’t got within 3L of a win in years either. Struggle to suggest here.
Master Of Arts: Frustrating horse to back at times. His best is clearly good, but you just can’t trust him all the time. Best runs have bene on dryer, but never really failed on a soft track though. Barrier 18 certainly makes it hard.
Straight Jacket: Won 2nd up last prep in similar grade on a soft track. Three runs this prep to date and well beaten on all occasions. Much easier today but barrier hurts chances.
Crime Fighter: Big odds today for a good reason. Hasn’t done much to suggest a win here on recent form.
Loncava: McEvoy runner who is always around the mark. Best runs have been over further in recent times but has run well enough over similar distances recently.
Peacefuleasyfellin: Open class runner over in NZ. Runs over here over 2400m+ found a few too good each time but ran well. First up run was average. Can run well but barrier hurts.
Glorious Sinndar: Weir runner who was a 2400m winner in Germany. Two runs this prep and failed to make a mark. Was injured last start. Two months between runs.
Slivovitz: Three runs this prep and failed to fire at all. Struggle to suggest.
I’ll’ava’alf: NZ import. Hurdle horse over there. BM-75 winner last win over 2200m. Has ability.
Iteration: Hasn’t shown anything in three starts this prep. Beginning to lose hope in her. Looks a throw at the stumps at this distance.
Grand Dreamer: Smerdon plunge horse. Strange price for mine based on his four runs this prep. Beaten favourite last start. Looks a good type obviously, but looks way short here.
Ultimate Doom: Well beaten the last two starts in harder grade after winning a BM-64. Hard horse to catch and looks outside his class level.
Kawabata: Ran well last start at Cranny in similar class and distance from out the front. Best runs have been on dryer, but goes okay on this ground. Good barrier.
Leventi: Gone through the grades this prep and up in distance, but stuck at BM-64. Hard to have here.
He’s A Genius: Failed to fire the past five races 5.3L off a win. Have to take on here clearly.
Choysa: Failed to win a R-58 race last start. Take on.
The Baptist: Couldn’t measure up in R-58 races this prep.
Comments: The price on Grand Dreamer is well unders here today. While I could take Master of Arts to win, the much better bet today is certainly to lay Grand Dreamer.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Lay Grand Dreamer for 1.5 units @ $2.20 (up to $2.50).
