Welcome to The Profits form guide for 4 June 2016 at Sandown, Rosehill and Eagle Farm. There’s lots of expected rain on the radars which will make it tricky to be betting up north today. We have targeted two horses up north that love it wet, but will also put in very good runs even if there is only minor rain levels by the time the races begin. I would note that when betting up at Eagle Farm or Rosehill today that it’s important to account for the kickback and also to remember that there is a difference between a Heavy 10 track, and a Heavy 10 track with constant rain.. alot of horses don’t handle top water that hasn’t soaked in yet.. think of running on very soft sand at the beach.. you never feel comfortable so don’t run full speed. Our core focus has been to look around the grounds this week and with the weather conditions down south, the majority of bets come out of Sandown today. Really hoping for some positives results today. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Sandown
Best Bet: Sandown Race 4 – Turnitaround for 3 units @ $2.90 to win
Next Best Bet: Sandown Race 6 – Scherzoso for 2 units @ $4.20 to win
Best Value: Sandown Race Race 9 – Mr Backchat for 1 unit Each-Way @ $14/$4.25
Rosehill
Best Bet: Rosehill Race Race 3 – King’s Officer for 2.5 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$2.05
Sandown Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 12
Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 14
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 13
Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 6, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Rosehill Race 3
1. Falco: Shouldn’t have any ideas with the Heavy track today based on previous run on Heavy. CL2 winner over 1400m on a Good 4 this prep, only just, but has shown ability in the past to suggest can run well here.
2. King’s Officer: Loved his run first up almost a month ago on an unsuitable 1200m distance run. Should have won that day if got a clear run at any stage when it mattered. This looks no harder today and his only run on a Heavy 10 was a win, telling me that he will be hard to beat on any track condition. Will be going back and running on and i’m expecting the track to suit this pattern by then.
3. Stratum’s Siren: Unseen on a very wet track to date. Lost as favourite last prep on a Soft 6 (failed to place), but last start on a Soft 5 won in CL3 grade. I’m not convinced the form lines of this mare are the real deal though on times and runs.
4. Dylan’s Dynasty: Found one too good last start at Nowra in a Cl2 race. Has run ‘okay’ in the past on a Heavy 10, but that was maiden grade and was still beaten 2.5L.
5. Bid of Faith: Nice enough run first up just off the pace when 2nd at Hawksbury. Up in grade last start well beaten at Canterbury last start though from the back. Barrier doesn’t help chances. Should handle the wet.
6. Dashie de Luxe: Three runs this prep and hasn’t got within 3.6L of a win. Last two starts well below this grade. Has won on a Heavy 9 last prep though which is important.
7. Kingia: CL2 winner last start after four previous runs this prep. Went around well backed last start and won in a tight finish. Failed to handle the heavy tracks in the past.
8. Grand Rouge: Heavy 10 winner last prep, returned well with a nice CL2 win at Nowra with a gun ride. Looks to be going well this prep and barrier 7 should get him a nice spot in running. Looks one of the main dangers.
9. Attainment: Won nicely enough in a maiden last start after 17 previous attempts. Has handled heavy tracks ‘well’ in the past, but hasn’t exactly looked very comfortable on the Heavy 10s for mine.
10. Balamentalica: Failed to handle the heavy tracks in the past. Form coming into this not good enough.
11. Canny Henry: Failed to win a race in the past. Hardest test to date and he doesn’t look well rated here.
12. Emerald Ice: Failed to get close to a win since his low grade maiden win on a Good 3 at Tamworth six runs back. Can’t see him enjoying the ground today either.
13. Pinneux: Failed on a Heavy 10 two runs back. CL2 winner previous to that was not too bad but it was just a 6k race. Last start didn’t suggest he will be a chance.
14. Pure Choice: Decent maiden win last prep. Not the worst runner last start when 3L off them at course over similar distance. two runs on wet were not great… but unseen on heavy.
Comments: There are only three real chances on my ratings and one is the clear standout here in King’s Officer. The horse is much better than this grade of race and most importantly is very well in at the weights compared with how I have him rated here. Don’t worry about the fact that he will be last in running, expect Jennings to get going early before the turn on a track that should be suitable for running on.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: King’s Officer for 2.5 units Each-Way @$5.50/$2.05.
Sandown Race 4
1. Turnitaround: Four runs this prep and has impressed going through each run. Most importantly, three runs in a row for three wins in this grade including two of those at Flemington. Beat some very good horses along the way and looks still well enough weighted here today. Most importantly, step back to 1800m looks the trick here. Wide barrier but should be able to slot in just off the speed.
2. Sysmo: Every chance both runs this prep but failed to fire home anything that impresses me. Last start was better, but i’m not sure the Petrology form line will stack up one bit going forward.
3. Wish Come True: Hasn’t won since 2014. Three runs this prep and failed to fire on all occasions. Hard to see it improving here either based on last start.
4. Longeron: One good run this prep was the Petrology form run two back at Caulfield. Failed to show anything last start at course and distance and not long between runs here. Has to improve.
5. Backbone: Hasn’t won since 2014 and has been going around in easier classes. Well beaten by Turnitaround two of last three starts.
6. Extra Noble: Hasn’t been going poorly, but last three runs have seen him beaten by Turnitaround by 2.3L, 4.3L and 5L. Even at the weights it’s hard to see him improving enough.
7. Sandhill Chief: Good win in easier class last start. Previous runs suggest this isn’t the form lijnje you want to follow going forward.
8. Straight Jacket: Not going well enough this prep to suggest.
9. I Feel Good: Not the worst runner last start up to 1800m. Has ability to run a sneaky race and be in with a place chance.
Comments: Very keen on TurnItAround here to continue his winning ways.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Turnitaround for 3 units @ $2.90 to win.
Sandown Race 6
1. Nozomi: Well back in class here. 3YO-LR winner and 3rd in Group 1 class to Preferment as a 3YO. Ran very well first up over 1000m for 2.8L 6th to Supido. Obviously wanting further and last start over 1400m was 3.8L off Jimando over the 1400m. Up to the 1600m where we are approaching his acceptable distance range and a few weeks between runs… maps well from barrier and weighted well with the claim. Can win.
2. Cloudscape: UK import. Found nothing first up over 1400m. Best runs in the past over further with 2000m+ the distance he is looking for. Needs the run.
3. Royal Rapture: Four runs this prep and not been close to a win. Last start was okay but others better suited here for mine.
4. Master Reset: Started the prep very well with a close 2nd to Gingerboy… since then two runs and failed to make his mark. Probably just forgive last start first time ever on a wet track. Dryer today… best runs can obviously measure up and win here.
5. Something to Share: First up run this prep was a very solid 2nd to Artie’s Shore at the bool on a very heavy track. Back to dryer but still suited. Looks well in here.
6. Scherzoso: McEvoy runner. Won last start at Flemington very well in fast time. Down in class here and up in weight. Strong form lines and looks well in here from barrier 3.
8. Aurum Spirit: Has been running very consistently recently. Step up in class again to a class he has never won at is the issue, but his last four-five runs have been good enough to measure up. Win at track two runs back.
9. Schockemohle: Best runs seen over further. Doesn’t find much first up either. Not here.
10. Commanding Time: Hasn’t been going well enough the past four runs to suggest even a place today. Have to take on. Even best runs from past 10 not good enough.
11. Distant Rock: Every chance last start at Flemington and only managed 4th from a good spot in running. Hard to see the step up here.
12. Nesbo: First up for 7 months. Best runs last prep were over 2000m+. Did win first up though in easier grade than this over 1600m and never won in this grade yet. Goes okay at track and nicely in at weights.
14. Red Spyder: Going okay this prep but couldn’t win in easier grade so hard to suggest the win.
Comments: A few main chances here but the standout on form is clearly Scherzoso with the claim from barrier 3.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 12
Strategy: Scherzoso for 2 units @ $4.20 to win.
Sandown Race 7
1. Danestroem: Ran well first up for a nice 2nd at Sale but last start when wide for a long time never really finished off when not allowed to lead. Maps as clear leader today and 3kg claim from Mertens has her well in at the weights. Most importantly, she always seems to run well here and step up to 1300m will suit. If the rail is on, she is a big chance.
2. Enquare: Looked a very good horse back in the day.. but just hasn’t been able to put a recent win on the board. Last win was in 2013! Last two runs haven’t been great. Has to improve.
3. Exclusive Lass: Wide barrier but should have no issues pushing forward if jumps well. Well back in running last start at Flemington but ran home ‘okay’. Has to improve on last three runs to measure up here.
4. Nadeem Lass: Last five runs no better than 7th is an issue. Hard to have on recent runs… but have to admit the barrier has her in a nice spot in running if can find her best.
5. A Lotta Love: Going well enough this prep to win here. Ran very well two back when blocked for runs and probably should have gone close to winning and showed up in Group 3 class last start to run 0.5L 3rd. Barrier 2 will see her get a gun run. Looks the horse to beat.
6. Khutulun: Very strong run first up over the 1200m when not too much was expected. Will improve here with half a month between runs and goes well at track. Good barrier. Only issue for mine is the weight difference against A Lotta Love.
7. Noela’s Choice: Not going well enough this prep based on precious runs.
8. Forgeress: Very nice run two back at Caulfield when showed improvement. Last start well beaten and not greatly well in at weights. Has to find her best and then some.
14. Takeover: Big run at odds last start 2nd to Shades of Bella. Expect a nice run based on that.
15. Jinx: Good win two back then fairly beaten last start in much easier. Hard to see the improvement.
Comments: Clear top pick here is A Lotta Love. But there isn’t a hell of a lot of room between the rated price and the price on offer here. The value on rated prices against market is clearly Danestroem.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 14
Strategy: Back both A Lotta Love and Danestroem.
Sandown Race 8
1. Odyssey Moon: Very nice run first up at Flemington over the 1200m when 0.9L 3rd. Back to 3YO grade here is a massive step back in class. Looks well enough weighted but maps awkwardly.
2. Sooboog: Horrible run last start. Previous run was clearly good enough to win this grade today. Inconsistent type that loves not to win, but today may be his day.
3. Jalan Jalan: Very disappointing last start. Was further back than expected but really not too much of an issue. Previous run in open class 2nd to Miss Promiscuity is a very nice form line. Hasn’t won since 2YO.
4. Bassett: Average ride two back and then last start never got a run at Caulfield so went around untested. New jockey onboard here… better barrier to slot in off the rail. I’m just not convinced that he is really wanting the long straight based on previous runs. They generally run these 1200 and 1300m races fast here. Will need to be at his best.
5. Get The Picture: 2500m last run of last prep. Needs further.
8. Nat’s The Boss: Got the win last start with no weight on his back. Was a very solid win. Equal weight again here… gets out the back.
10. Ascendance: McEvoy runner. Easy CL1 win last start… this stable don’t throw them in the deep end without reason but even I have to question just how well the horse will go here.
11. Battlecamp: BM-64 second last start at Bendigo. has to improve on what we have seen to date to beat these.
13. Sword of Justice: Big improvement shown last start just beaten 2nd to Nats The Boss at Caulfield. Extra 100m today will help again.
14. Bon’s Ghost: Maiden winner only last start. Have to take on.
16. Street Pride: Couldn’t go close in CL1 last start. Not up to this grade.
Comments: This looks to be one of the best races of the day. There are several chances in this race and the betting on the race is actually fairly accurate on my ratings. It’s very competitive and there isn’t much advantage for punters. Speaking frankly, the prices on offer for Jalan Jalan and Battlecamp look to be the unders in the race. The Sooboog and Odyssey Moon prices are where they should be. I think the prices on offer for Nat’s The Boss and Sword of Justice with the low weights are the value runners in the race. If they can improve on from their last start runs then they measure up.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 13
Strategy: Sooboog to win. Also back Nat’s The Boss.
Sandown Race 9
1. Electric Fusion: Never won over this distance in the past. Best runs further into runs in the past as well. Hasn’t seen the track for 6 months. Take on.
2. Mr Backchat: Very strong run last start at Flemington in harder class when ran very well just missing. Form has held up and looks well placed in this grade today with the barrier drawn being the only issue.
3. Magnus Lad: Two runs this prep so far and hasn’t gone close on either run. Coming off a 8 month break and hasn’t shown any ability of running well. Back in class but still very hard to suggest. Best run would win here.
4. Vizhaka: Hasn’t been seen in a while now when well beaten… did have a very good 1600m win in harder class three runs back over 1600m… looks just a bit too short first up.
5. Duke of Brunswick: Ran well enough first up against his natural pattern. Back in class here today and we know his very best generally takes at least a run to appear. Will be lengths better today and looks very well weighted back in this class. Always goes well at this track also. Hasn’t been missed in betting.
6. Belesron: Every chance the last two starts you would have to suggest. Very poor IMO last start at Caulfield with a good weight. Up to 1300m which isn’t his best distance for mine so it’s a bit of a throw at the stumps second up? Hasn’t won in a while and poor barrier.
7. Running Bull: Been going okay this prep but hasn’t gone close to a win. Struggle to suggest even from the barrier.
8. Celeritas: Her best is more than good enough to measure up here, but first up over 1300m isn’t her kettle of fish and I have to take her on.
9. Tankster: Generally takes a few runs to win, but last prep did win second up. First up run this prep was horrible though and I really can’t see the progression up to this grade here so soon into prep.
10. Bon Rocket: 6 runs 0 places in this grade in the past. Has been running well enough the past two runs and up to 1300m well suited. Has to improve again though and never placed at this track an issue.
11. Raposo: Not suited first up by the heavy track, but even so it was a poor run. Clearly his very best is more than good enough to run well here, but it’s been a long time between we have seen his best.
12. Ruettiger: Ran home well enough last start at Morphetville when never a chance against the star winner in Illustrious Lad. Up in distance should suit and really does look well weighted… just a shame about the barrier.
13. Coram: Horrible run last start. Previous runs were better. Hard horse to trust.
14. Mio Dio: Three runs this prep and well beaten every run. Take on.
Comments: There are only a few chances in this race today on my ratings, but the standout at the odds is clearly Mr Backchat coming off a huge run last start at Flemington. This is a horse that is well suited by the long straights and should get a better ride with some cover today. Claim is the key.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 6, 12
Strategy: Mr Backchat for 1 unit Each-Way @ $14/$4.25
