Welcome to The Profits form guide for 28 May 2016 at Sandown and Doomben. It’s been a tough few weeks on the punt for us with a number of seconds to our name at very favourable odds, just we haven’t been getting the winning results on the board. We return to Sandown on a wetter than normal track which I believe is going to give us an advantage today. We also look to the main event at Doomben when I feel we have a strong bet on offer. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Doomben Best Bet
Doomben Race 7 – Fell Swoop 1.5 units Each-Way @ $5.10/$1.90
Sandown Best Bet
Sandown Race 3 – Master of Arts for 2.5 units $2.80
Sandown Next Best Bet
Sandown Race 7 – Miles of Krishan 1.5 units @ $6.00
Sandown Best Value Bet
Sandown Race 9 – Niminypiminy for 1 unit Each-Way @ $11/$3.50
Sandown Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 11
Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 7, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 7, 6, 8
Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 7, 13, 14
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 1 – 3400m – The Australian Hurdle
1. Arch Fire: No disgrace when beaten 4L by Gingerboy two runs back at the Bool coming off a 6L defeat to Gingerboy before that. No issues with the track conditions today and goes well at this track.
2. King of Dudes: Weighted to run well today. His very best in the past has been good enough to win decent races, but he just hasn’t ever found enough to compete with the best of them. I’m told he has trained on since last start, but he will need to have improved significantly to run into 2nd, not just 1st.
3. Gingerboy: The horse to beat. Was a nice run 4th to Raw Impulse between hurdles runs and he looks super fit heading into this. Most importantly, no other speed in the race so Allen will be able to rate him out front perfectly.
4. Earthbound: Well backed favourite over the Steeplechases and was found wanting. Won at course three runs back. Has ability but others preferred today.
6. I’ll’Ava’Alf: NZ import who looked just okay over the hurdles in NZ. Ran well enough first up at the Bool on the flat but was disappointing last start over the Hurdles… much harder here.
Comments: This is a race of three with Arch Fire, King of Dudes and Gingerboy the only winning chances for mine. These three meet again after the Bool run where Gingerboy got the better of them both. King of Dudes finds himself 3kg better off against Gingerboy and 0.5kg against Arch Fire, while Arch Fire gets 2.5kg on Gingerboy today. I couldn’t bet against Gingerboy here today and couldn’t fall into the $1.60 being bet either. I would need around $1.76+ to get involved.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Gingerboy to win.
Sandown Race 2
Very happy to skip over this race where-by a number of runners have not been seen, including one that has been well backed.
Sandown Race 3 – 2400m – Le Pine Funerals Plate
1. Bold Sniper: Never exactly found his best on wet tracks. Two runs to date this prep and failed to fire a shot either run. Looks up against it even with the claims here.
2. Master of Arts: Found another gear last start at the Bool when flying down the outside to win with authority. Will need a similar ride here today and the booking of Allen will surely be a positive. Maps to get a good run in transit also.
3. Tunes: The likely leader on paper. Been running okay but hasn’t been able to get a win. Group places on the form this prep but did find his very best over the 3200m. Last start very plain. Never won on wet but handles it.
5. Golden Mane: Been running consistently well this prep. Ran a nice 2.8L 2nd to Raw Impulse last start. Didn’t get a heavy track four runs back, but has placed both runs on a slow track. First time up to 2400m today and on a wet track has to be a bit of a concern.
6. Four Carat: Hasn’t shown much at all this prep. Should improve up to this distance today based on previous preps runs. May just be one run away.
7. Bajour: Doesn’t win out of turn or often, but these distances do see him find his best. Meets Golden Mane 1.5kg better at the weights today also. Only run on a wet track didn’t place.
8. Spur on Gold: Ran home well from out the back last start at Caulfield when 3L off Raw Impulse. Beat a very good field two back at Flemington as well. No wet form though the big issue.
10. Manhattan Boss: 3YO stepping up out of 3YO grades to open class. Ran well enough 3rd two runs back before doing far too much in the G1 last start pushing on way too early. Has ability but others better on ratings.
11. San Padre: Hasn’t been able to place the past two starts. Never found form on wet either. No thanks.
Comments: Happy to start the day off with a healthy but not overly large bet on Master of Arts at the price on offer. We are going with the different form line on a horse that will appreciate all of the give in the ground today and maps perfectly with a 3kg claim getting him well in at the weights.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Master of Arts for 2.5 units $2.80
Sandown Race 4 – 3400m – The Australian Steeplechase
1. Wells: Not the worst run on the flat between runs when 5th at Cranbourne on a soft track. Very disappointing return to the hurdles two back though when could only manage 16L 5th on a heavy track at the Bool. Back to a soft track today will help, and back over the Steeplechases might just be the key. Looks suited.
2. Urban Explorer: Been running ‘okay’ over the Hurdles this prep without going close to a win. Started under $3.50 the last two starts which is a concern. Back to the Steeplechases which has to be a positive. Has been two months between jumps runs… will have to be at top fitness to measure up on previous runs.
3. Stand to Gain: Found nothing this prep. Hasn’t won in a very long time either. Career looks done.
4. King Triton: Very nice 2nd at the Bool last start on the heavy track. Goes okay on all types of tracks, but this horse fails to measure up to the very top level to get a win. Can run okay but others preferred on form.
5. Zataglio: Looks to have come back a different horse this prep. Was putting fields away with ease last prep but was a defeated $1.8 favourite last start. Hard to have.
6. Angelology: Very short priced favourite last start and the weight got him on the day. Looks much better suited off the 64kg here but even so, he has to improve onwards to beat these.
7. About The Journey: Very nice horse who loves the tracks with a bit of give. Very best runs have been over the Hurdles so the Steeplechase is a bit of a different beast. Last start was very poor at the Bool… not sure what to make of it. Has to improve onwards.
8. Spying on You: Very nice win two back beating Earthbound with ease. Previous runs saw a close 2nd to Bold Zamour over these jumps. Has ability.
9. Auld Burns: Well beaten and no excuses last start. Not going well enough based on runs this prep. Struggle to suggest even with jockey booking.
11. Marlo Man: Well beaten the last three starts over the jumps. Not here.
12. Yolanda Be Cool: Hasn’t measured up to win a maiden hurdle so hard to see here.
Comments: I couldn’t touch the price on offer for Angelology today. Wells is the clear value in the race.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Wells to win.
Sandown Race 5 – 1200m – George Malone Memorial Plate
3. Armada: Handles all track conditions. Ran well enough last start to suggest he has a win in him this prep.. but has been a beaten favourite three of last four runs and was 2nd fav last start when beaten. Obviously has to improve onwards again. Will get a nice sit on the rail from barrier 1.
4. Temps Voleur: Doesn’t win out of turn this bloke… thought they were crazy running him over 1200m considering last win was over 2000m, but he ran a very brave 4th to Yesterdays Song in harder company two back. Well beaten last start though so obviously has to improve here again.
5. Tiny’s Legacy: Always looked a nice type, but hasn’t won in over a year now. Never placed first up in the past a bit issue and never placed over this distance ever from 7 starts!
6. Jungle Edge: Strong win on Heavy five runs back and then repeated it two runs back at the Bool. Fairly beaten last start at Cranbourne on the soft. Needs it very very wet and won’t find that today.
7. Lucky For You: Three runs this prep and yet to fire. Hard to have on what we know too date.
8. Mio Dio: Two runs this prep and beaten significantly on both attempts. Needs a few more runs.
9. Caprese: Nice win last start at course and distance in this class on a soft track. Up in weight and no claim today either. Maps to sit midfield from barrier. Can win.
10. Coram: Did ALOT wrong last start and pulling hard off a slow tempo in the race, but still flew home for a close 2nd to a very talented form horse in Olivier. Looks very well suited today with the claim of Benny T. Most importantly, last run on a soft track was a 2.5L win. Barrier the only issue today. Big chance.
11. Marwood: Never won in this class in the past. Best runs have been on heavy tracks but goes okay obviously on soft. Last start run was fair enough to suggest he has ability but has to make another step of improvement.
12. Benchi Pegasus: Not been seen in a while on the track. Last two starts were very strong efforts. Previous prep showed his very best is on a wet track… would prefer it wetter… but should be enough give to run well.
13. Smart Dart: Very strong run first run in this prep on a soft track. Was his first time measuring up on slow so i’m a little concerned about that… but don’t be too worried.
14. I’m ABlaze: Good win last start. Always had ability but doesn’t find and show that ability too often. When he does, it pays well. Goes well on soft tracks.
15. Elle Excite: Mares grade back to this today. Handles the wet tracks. Bad barrier, will be going back. Has to improve but obviously can win.
16. Face Forward: Every chance last start at Caulfield and just simply not good enough. Back in grade and up in weight… going okay but on current form I suspect she needs another run. Not suited by the barrier. Handles wet.
17. Lord Barrington: Nice enough runs the last two starts but found a few too good. Should find a few too good again.
19. Reigning Meteor: Nice enough horse but 9 runs and just the 1 win 0 places on the record. Was an okay run first up but really needs a few more to find fitness.
20. Heza Ripper: Well beaten favourite last start at the Bool. 1400m back to 1200m. Goes okay at track.
Comments: At the prices, there are two horses I like in Coram and Elle Excite. Both map to get midfield or further back and i’m expecting a solid enough tempo to be set. Both will enjoy the track conditions today and i’m expecting them to start to move out a bit more as the day goes on.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back Coram and also Elle Excite to win.
Sandown Race 6 – 1400m – Le Pine Funeral Handicap
1. Mr Individual: Maps very well today from an inside barrier to sit just off the speed. Top weight is a bit of a worry for mine though. Only win in easier grade and failed to place in this grade in 3 other attempts, but does seem to always run well. First up pulled up lame which isn’t something you want to be overly confident coming off.
2. Divine Mr Artie: Very strong win two back at Caulfield over the 1200m distance. Last start just beaten 0.8L 4th to Nats The Boss who turned the tables. 3kg claim today. Unknown on the surface. Will be getting very far back in the run.
5. Tan Tat Charger: Two solid runs in a row heading into this behind Divine Mr Artie and Nudie. Better weighted than both of them making the most of the claim of Ben Allen. Big query over if he will get the conditions, but more importantly, get the step up to 1400m.
6. Twisting Typhoon: First up today. Ran okay enough placings in similar grade last prep. Has to have found another gear today though. On the drift.
8. Lord Tennyson: Heavy track win last start at the Bool. Obviously will enjoy the track. Going through the grades but others preferred on form.
10. Makatiti: Maiden winner last start on a soft track. Goes okay but clearly has to find lengths here.
11. Tango Rock: Good maiden win two back and then nice enough run 6th behind Nudierudie. Similar type of weight today though is an issue from barrier.
12. Claudia Jean: Been up a fair while this prep. Big step up in class here again today. Goes okay on soft but has to improve again to be in the finish.
13. Oscar Dee: Couldn’t place last start in BM-64 grade. Hard to fancy on current form.
14. Robert De Hero: Very large maiden win last start in much easier than this. Clearly looks to have ability over the 1400m distance.
Comments: Low confidence race after best bet of the day was scratched as well as several other chances. Wide open now.
Confidence 55%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 11
Strategy: Mr Individual to win.
Sandown Race 7 – 1600m – Ladbrokes Odds Boost
1. Lahqa: Huge step back in class today for this very talented filly. Been going close the last few starts in listed grade behind Antelucan which is no disgrace at all. Only run on a soft track was for a win also. D Dunn claiming onboard. Looks very well suited. Only negative is a fair bit of pace around in the race, but not really any natural leaders. 1 run for 1 win at track.
2. Gingie: Won three of her last four going through the grades from a maiden win. Last start with 51kg was a good win at Caulfield from the back. Up a few KG today at the weights but looks nicely suited. 4 runs on wet for 1 place an issue.
3. Indarra: Doesn’t like to win this horse. Not a terrible run two back in similar grade when 4th. Never run on wet. Not going well enough for mine.
4. Miss Cooper: Has talent but it is certainly limited. Up in grade today on last start run when loomed but was claimed late in the piece when 2L 3rd… has to improve onwards.. but likes it wet and the track.
5. Francais: Been running well without looking a winning shot all prep. Goes okay on wet, but barrier 13 and runs to date, i struggle to suggest.
6. Whirlpool: Hard to ignore today. Beat home Lahqa last start at Morphetville and finds herself much better weighted here. Never seen a worse than good track is obviously the issue, but barrier 2 will see her get a nice and soft run out the back to run on late.
7. Miles of Krishan: Just missed last start at Caulfield and was fairly unlucky being held up for runs at critical stages. Will improve onwards up to the 1600m and looks bred to handle the wet. Great barrier and maps well to get a good spot in run. Weighted well also.
8. Fife: Close but no win last start in much easier grade. Has to improve significantly to measure up here for mine especially from barrier.
9. Lady Provocateur: Only going average this time in. Well beaten last start. Hard to have.
10. Street Spun: 2200m back to 1600m today. Not the worst run ever three back at Morphetville in 3F-LR grade and looks well enough in from barrier at weights. Has to improve still but looks a chance.
11. Weather The Storm: Further back than expected last start at Caulfield. Never a winning hope but ran well. Not weighted too well for mine today though compared to others.
12. Effortless Miss: Been competing in BM-64 open class races and running okay. Goes okay on soft tracks also. Has to improve but not the worst blowout chance.
13. Espresso Lass: Maiden only winner. Failed to fire a punch last start and not very well weighted here. Has to improve.
14. Sweet Lavender: Maiden only winner. Huge class jump. Pass.
15. Vatiaz: Maiden only winner on heavy. Not very well suited here with drying surface.
16. Lady Felicia: Maiden winner in what was an okay race last start, but this looks far beyond her on what i’ve seen even at weights.
17. Not the worst going around but can’t see a win.
Comments: I’m really keen on Miles of Krishan here.I consider the horses price currently of $6+ more than backable compared to where I have it rated (clear favourite).
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 7, 10
Strategy: Miles of Krishan 1.5 units @ $6.00
Sandown Race 8 – 1600m – Jim Conway Handicap
1. Au Revoir: Never won first up or at this distance in the past. Did run well first up last prep though 2L 5th in WFA-G2 behind Mourinho over 1800m. Best form been seen on dryer tracks but goes okay on wet. Will be on speed from barrier. Win wouldn’t be a total shock.
2. Kenjorwood: Old mate has had a few weeks between runs. Went around favourite last start at course and distance when ridden to have no chance wen not on speed. Gets in with a claim today and has to improve to be a real chance here. Never won on soft but goes fine on it. Hasn’t shown me the form just yet this prep to be winning this is the issue, but word is he is going well at home.
3. Guest of Honour: Much further back than expected last start when a close 5th behind Charmed Harmony last start at Caulfield. Been crying out for a wet track by all reports and i’m expecting a Australian career peak run here. Can run well and can win.
4. Akzar: Hasn’t been going well enough the past two preps for me to suggest here especially after the first up run.
5. Crafty Cruiser: Old mate crafty loves any track condition, but has never won first up or over this distance. Here for the sandwiches.
6. Petrology: Big win last start at Caulfield and a massive turn around in form. Love to know how that happened!? Never really found his best on wetter than good tracks though and i’m not convinced of a repeat performance.
7. Longeron: Had his chances last start but found two too good. Much better weighted today and has nice enough slow track form.
8. Lord Durante: Always puts in a bold effort but was never really a winning chance last start at Caulfield. Likes all track conditions but doesn’t win often.
9. Moonovermanhattan: Fairly untapped talent. Could find much more today on the wetter surface than the last few starts on good tracks. I think Sandown will suit his style of racing, but i’m concerned with too much speed in the race.
10. Onpicalo: No weight on his back after the claims. Failed last start was a big concern heading into this. I struggle to suggest even though he has a good track distance and condition form line.
12. Nozomi: Maiden only winner who then ran 3rd behind Preferment over 2500m. Needs further on what we have seen too date… but could the soft and 1600m suit?
13. Happy As Hell: Doesn’t win often early into preps and never won in this class previously in the city. Best kept to further and in easier.
14. Volontiers: Goes okay on soft tracks. Two runs before this were decent but nothing to write home about. Needs to improve.
Comments: The market pretty much has this race spot on. It’s wide open.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 7, 6, 8
Strategy: Back Au Revoir and Guest of Honour to win.
Sandown Race 9 – 1400m – Brown’s Sawdust and Shavings Handicap
1. Del Prado: Last start run on a soft track in a slightly lower grade over 1400m was for a win. Two runs this prep and i thought first up was actually okay in harder grade while last start was a forgive run. Top weight with 61.5kg makes it hard, but he loves it wet and maps okay.
2. Chivalry: Two runs this prep and failed to fire either start. Never run on a wet track either. Looks okay in barrier wise but hard to suggest.
4. Here to There: Looked a very good type coming through the grades, but failed to get a win the last three starts. Back in grade today… 6th last start at Flemington. Will be contesting again on speed.
5. Running Bull: Over-raced last start when ran poorly and disappointingly at Flemington when 3L 5th. Has to clearly improve to be placing today.
6. Show A Star: Looked a nice type going through the grades each run this and last prep. Good win last start at Caulfield from on speed and looks the clear pace angle in the race. Started $3.8 or less 7 of his last 8 runs (last start $5 and won). Handles soft tracks also.
7. Spreadeagled: Way too short a distance first up over the 1100m. Only run on a soft track was a very nice win over 1600m in similar grade. Won in grade previously. Best will be over further, but 1400m looks suitable enough for him if he finds his very best. Barrier only issue.
8. So Does He: Two runs and failed to fire a shot this prep. Last preps runs showed decent enough form to suggest he can run well here today, but i can’t have it this early into prep.
9. Supreme Warrior: Two runs this prep and given nothing to indicate a run that would measure up here. A month between runs the only positive and you have to remember he ran 1L 5th to The United States last prep over 1500m. Was deeper into a prep though.
10. Harveys True Heart: Average first up record and just 1 win from 19 starts in this grade. Never won at track either and best seen over further. Struggle to suggest.
12. Japhils: Looks to be the leader with Show A Star on mapping. Really enjoys wet tracks and goes well here. The issue is that she has lead and been claimed fairly early in the straight at the last two attempts in harder grade with low weights. Will she be going well enough with no claimer today to hold them off?
13. Niminypiminy: Been big talk about how well this horse has been going at home and hasn’t shown it the last two starts. Wetter track today CLEARLY what she is looking for as well as the extra distance. Looks a key player from the barrier.
14. Statton: Always been a bit under the radar this horse. Good runs heading into this but step back to 1400m a bit concerning for me when 1600m is the horses best distance. Nice 2nd here on a wet track. Goes well here today.
15. Spanish Love: First up today. Never placed in class or at track and never won first up or at this distance. Prefer over further.
Comments: I’m expecting the speed to be on here today and i’m expecting the backmarkers to be having every possibility this late in the day. Niminypiminy looks primed taking the step up to 1400m here today on a soft track surface low down in the weights. Lane takes the ride
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 7, 13, 14
Strategy: Niminypiminy for 1 unit Each-Way @ $11/$3.50
Doomben Race 7 – 1350m – Doomben 10,000
1. Delectation: Got his leg up in the gates last start over the 1200m when 2.3L 8th behind Malaguerra. Was vetted but passed fit. Went out to the back from wide barrier and saved ground taking the inside path. Was blocked for runs with 50m to go though and really should have finished 3rd with clear running. Unknown at the extra distance today. May sit slightly more handy today from the better barrier you would imagine. Has the ability.
2. Fell Swoop: Good win two back in easier grade. Last start from barrier 10 jumped and had to sit 3-wide the trip. Had no right to finish off as well as he did, I personally feel it was a massive run and more importantly, the way he hit the line told me that he was wanting further. Looks a big player here today from barrier 1.
3. Dothraki: Had the dream run and ride last start and simply wasn’t good enough to get past Malaguerra. It was a good run, but i’m not convinced he is suited with the step up to 1350m here… with his best in the past coming over 1000-1200m. Will need another gem of a ride. Could lead.
4. Hooked: Nice enough type. Goes best when fresh and is 100% fit ready for this today. I do think the main event for him is next start over further.
5. Charlie Boy: He didn’t turn up last start. Somehow got caught 3-wide for the majority of the race and was hard ridden before the turn. His very best runs have been off harder tempos and over further, so i’m willing to just ignore that run. Looks a key chance from a very positive barrier.
6. Music Magnate: Massive step up in class here. Proved to be a very nice type the last two strats in slightly lower grades… can run well but looks unders at the odds for mine.
7. Azkadellia: 1600m back to 1350m here. I’m not convinced this is her very best distance and a month and a half between runs off a Group 1 prep… she has to be at her very best. Barrier means she needs to come from last.
8. Two Blue: Well beaten early in the straight last start but still held on for 4th. Goes well over this distance from past runs.. but has to improve to measure up here again.
9. Scarlet Billows: Found nothing last start over 1200m at Morphetville. Two back run was very highly rated over the 1400m in F&M grade. Not sure she is well enough weighted though.. but the stable does think she is a chance.
Comments: Fell Swoop is the horse you really want to be with here today.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Fell Swoop for 1.5 units Each-Way @ $5.10/$1.90
