Welcome to The Profits form guide for Sandown on 5 December 2015. For those who haven’t caught up during the week, since the start of December we have moved to a new system, which includes tips throughout the week (at this stage Monday is a certain non-bet day, while we will pick and choose the other meetings – never forcing a bet). You will notice under the Tools section below we have a link to our Betting Spreadsheet which will hold every bet we put up. The card at Sandown has presented quite a good card for betting, with around five races i’m wanting to bet into with different stake levels. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Sandown Race 1 – Ragazzo Del Corsa 1.35 units @ $4.30 to win. Atlantic City 0.8 units @ $7.40 to win. Irada 0.85 units @ $6.60 to win.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Sandown Race 3 – Tarangower for 2.5 units @ $2.60 to win. Also back Lord Athenaeum for 0.5 units @ $11.50 to win.
Other Bets
Sandown Race 4 – Northroza 1.2 units @ $4.20 to win. Danestroem 0.5 units @ $10 to win. Metaphorical 0.4 units @ $5.5 to win.
Sandown Race 8 – Kirani 0.65 units @ $13 to win. Swift Shadow 0.35 units @ $23 to win.
Sandown Race 9 – Purple Smile 1 unit @ $4.80 to win. Sir Leliani 0.6 units @ 8.00 to win.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 6, 7, 9, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 5, 9, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 7, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 9, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 1 – 1400m – Noble Park Plate
1. Ragazzo Del Corsa: Nice barrier today after a much improved run back in class last start at Ballarat. Back in class again but fairly weighted and rates very well from barrier.
2. Atlantic City: When he is backed he wins. Last start won well in much easier grade and the time was very sound. Will measure up.
3. God Forbid: Did a bit wrong winning last start at the Bool in only average time. Has to improve and poor barrier.
4. Irada: Hard horse to catch. Last two runs have been very disappointing all things considered. Been given ample time between runs and pushed back in class. Small field so can sit out the back and be ridden correctly today. Has the turn of foot if good enough today. Suited by long straight.
5. Vostok: Expected to lead after winning at Kilmore in maiden class first up. Didn’t win by too much but got the job done. Time was fair enough.
6. Broadway and First: Well beaten last start at Ballarat and no excuse. Have to improve to measure up here for mine. Take on.
8. Net Wealth: Couldn’t win last start in BM-64 grade at Echuca from a nice spot in running. Well beaten previous two starts. Looks the 2nd stringer of the Price Yard to my eye.
9. Patche Gift: Maiden win first up then failed to go close the last two starts. Did a fair bit wrong last start but no excuse. Has to improve, may be wanting a wet track.
10. Mister Miyagi: Wax On, Wax Off! Just missed first up in a maiden then got the win last start at Cranbourne in a nice race. Good barrier today, expect a midfield position. Looks to have the ability.
11. King Amongst Many: McEvoy runner. Still yet to win a maiden. Can’t see it on runs to date but the horse is here for a reason. Could be value?
Comments: Three clear standouts in the ratings today and i’m happy to back all three for a result.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Back Ragazzo Del Corsa, Atlantic City and Irada to win. Staking 1.35 units Ragazzo, 0.8 units Atlantic and 0.85 units Irada.
Staking: Win Bets – Ragazzo Del Corsa 1.35 units @ $4.30. Atlantic City 0.8 units @ $7.40. Irada 0.85 units @ $6.60.
Sandown Race 2 – 1600m – Yarraman Village Plate
1. Jacquinot Bay: Didn’t lead last start (big mistake) at course and similar distance. Battled on bravely for 4th just missing a place. Outside barrier, but 3kg claiming jockey and there surely has to be a lead at all costs instruction today. Going more than good enough to win this.
2. Evangelist: Hard horse to catch. Probably would have been winning last start if he actually got a run, blocked the whole straight at Kilmore. Very good run the previous run at Sale. Horse is ticking over nicely. Speed will be on and they will find him a nice spot. Big chance.
3. Black Jag: First up run found nothing on a heavy track. Goes well enough 2nd up and goes well at this distance, but his very best comes over the 2500m and above. Probably needs the run.
4. Eximus: Back in form finally last start at Kilmore but couldn’t run down Rhythm to Spare which is a concern for mine. Has to improve on that run but does map well enough and has won at track in the past.
5. Oregon Spirit: Ran home quite well last start at Wodonga behind Master Reset with top weight. Down 4.5kg here, barrier 5 again and Meech is riding very well currently. Win wouldn’t shock.
6. Majestic Duke: Led last start and never really looked the winner from 200m out. Stuck on strongly, but clearly needs another run or two this prep to find his best. Best runs were on softer tracks i’d say also last prep.
8. Tonopah: Blocked for runs last start but that didn’t matter for this very classy runner, winning easy at Donald last start smashing the field in a nicely run time. Down 2kg here to 54, looks to be well in and barrier is perfect to get a little further forward.
9. Vizhaka: Very nice win two back at Bairnsdale from on speed, but failed last start at Sale. Two back run is good enough to win this but there was a bias that day to consider.
10. Electric Fusion: Hard horse to catch. Last three runs have been horrible. Four back was a nice run on speed. Won’t have an easy time the issue.
11. Scelto: Going horrible based on last two runs all things considered. A long time between runs may do the trick, but has never won at this track from 7 attempts or distance from 11 attempts and 12 attempts in this class.
Comments: I came into this race expecting to be all over my old mate Jac Bay, but this is a very wide open race with four main chances on form in Jac Bay, Evangelist, Tonopah and Oregon Spirit. Jac Bay and Tonopah are both under the correct odds, they are both good, but i couldn’t be playing on them at the odds. Evangelist and Oregon Spirit offer the value in the race and that’s the way i would play if i was betting here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Evangelist @ $9 and Oregon Spirit @ $14.
Sandown Race 3 – 1800m – Ashfords Accountant Plate
1. Lord Athenaeum: Never a chance last start when missing the start by 3 lengths sitting out the back. Two runs back at Flemington just missed in much harder grade on a wetter surface. Goes just as well on a good surface though. Looks nicely enough weighted here.
2. Orion: Every chance two runs back at Bendigo and well beaten. Last start well beaten again at Ballarat. Not going well enough.
3. Pacific Heights: On speed runner. Not the worst run last start at Flemington. Two back run probably the one to rate off, was a good 4th to Digitalism. Should have every possible chance from position.
4. Tarangower: Destroyed the field last start at Moonee Valley over 1600m with authority. Will be pushing forward from out wide and shouldn’t have much trouble getting a position. Looks to be going VERY well and it’s hard to look beyond him here.
6. Sir Berus: Nice enough win last start over the 2040m. Back to 1800m not exactly ideal… the form is okay but has to improve again for mine to be measuring up here.
7. Firehouse Rock: Continues to run well this prep and keeps improving. Ignore last start, just too wet. Previous two runs were on par and looks well suited here today on those two runs.
8. Prizum: Been forever since he won. Going well enough but his best runs were 4/5 back. Back in class and not poorly weighted.
9. Mr Journeyman: Well beaten all four runs this prep. Not for me.
10. Now’s The Time: Chris Waller runner. Well beaten last two runs but won an easier race three back. Has to improve.
11. Turbo Street: Nice win last start at Bendigo from the back. Wide barrier so going back again. Big step up again here today though but has the ability.
13. Lucques: Poor last start at Ballarat. Was a good win from closer two back at Seymour, but others preferred for mine here.
Comments: Turbo Street looks under the odds for mine as the very first point at the $5.50 best around. Firehouse rock represents slight value at the $7.6 at time of writing while Lord Athenaeum is a big price off that last start forgive run. Tarangower is the horse to beat and clear top pick for me.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Tarangower & Lord Athenaeum
Staking: Win Bets – Tarangower for 2.5 units @ $2.60. Also back Lord Athenaeum for 0.5 units @ $11.50
Sandown Race 4 – 1400m – Macpherson Kelley Plate
1. She’s Clean: Blocked for runs last start at course and similar distance when Solicit just ran away with it from out the front. Similar class and same barrier today, gets the top weight. Has to improve on previous three runs today, may ride a bit closer… but it is a smaller field so shouldn’t be left too far back.
2. Metaphorical: Strong enough run first up at Ballarat when 4th to Weinholt from the back. Barrier 5 today and up to 1400m, should sit midfield and be very hard to hold out if she produces her very best.
3. Sense and Reason: Two runs this prep and well beaten in both. Up to 1400m should suit, but only run at this grade in the past she wasn’t good enough to place.
4. Danestroem: This girl always gives you a run for her money and Beriman has a good relationship with her. Goes well at this track and also at this distance. Looks the leader on paper so wide barrier no idea. May just stack them up and try and outsprint them with the 54kg from the barrier.
5. Matilija: Disappointing last start at course and similar distance. Best run this prep was clearly on the heavy at Flemington. Previous three runs to that were solid enough but i believe she has to improve again to win this.
7. Northroza: Proved to be a very classy mare two preps back. Last prep also showed that. First up run was just a plain ignore and she bounced back in lesser class last start with a very easy win. 54kg, looks well enough weighted third up to improve again from the barrier and will have every possible chance.
8. Anaphora: Two runs this prep for a 2nd and 3rd in lesser class. Best run last prep was over 1600m so not up to that distance just yet and it was off a very fast tempo which i can’t see here today.
9. Baby Don’t Cry: Good win last start at Benalla, but this is obviously a MUCH harder race. Never won at this distance from 3 attempts in the past. Hard to see at the weights.
11. Annesbrook: Couldn’t win a FM-58 last start.
Comments: A few under the correct odds in this race for me. I have Matilija and Anaphora as both double figure chances, while Danestroem is rated much shorter than the $10 being bet here. I also have Northroza at the compressed weights scale as a shorter price than the $4.2. Looks to be four key chances on the form, and i’m very happy to bet with the value.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Backing Northroza and Danestroem to win. Saver betting Metaphorical.
Staking: Win Bets – Northroza 1.2 units @ $4.20. Danestroem 0.5 units @ $10. Metaphorical 0.4 units @ $5.5.
Sandown Race 5 – 1500m – Hilton Manufacturing Handicap
1. Wrotham Heath: Two ignore runs to open the prep. Expect to be much closer to the speed today from barrier 3. Can run well enough at this distance but is probably looking for further.
2. Alrouz: Goes okay first up. Never won from 6 attempts at track a worry. Has won 4 times at similar distances though. Last win over 2000m. Will be on speed… need to be fit to beat all these.
3. Lilly Dazzler: Very nice run 2nd to Zarzali two back at Flemington. Last start run when missed the start never a chance in much harder race. Barrier 1 today, if she jumps well she will be in a very good spot and have every possible chance. Form is very solid.
4. Low Places: Sent down from Sydney in winning form. Went through the grades slowly. Back down to 1500m from 2200m last start a massive concern for me here.
5. Elmantosh: Average form race 3 back for his best run this prep. Failed last two. Clear take on for me here.
6. Pythagorean: Hard horse to figure out, just like the name. Been a long time between a good run and i can’t see one coming out here on recent form. Needs the speed on.
7. Northern Lyric: Last two runs no excuses just been well below his very best. Yard have changed a few things up but would still need to improve to measure up on recent form.
8. Tucanchoo: Out the back last two starts, but has the ability on previous runs to sit midfield from this barrier. Good win two back at course and similar distance while last start wasn’t as impressive. Obviously been 8 months between runs so we go off this horse being first up after a very long spell.
9. Rich River: Never won first up just yet but this bloke always runs well. Has won at course and also at this distance but never in this class. Hard to see this first up in this class over this distance? Started favourite 6 of his last 8 starts and won just 1!
10. Bascule: Very disappointing run last start at MV. Similar the run at Rosehill previous to that off an okay run first up. Very best is good enough but hard to have confidence off last two runs.
11. Distant Rock: Over-raced heavily last start and was never a chance. Out the back jumping poorly previous run. Last win was in BM-64 grade and that was last prep. Has to improve on previous form but has ability.
12. Got You Double: BM-70 4.5L 3rd at Dunkeld last start. Hard to see on that form but did run well in 3YO grade previous prep.
13. Kincaple Chief: Hayes runner. Hasn’t won in over a year. Three runs to prep haven’t been good enough to suggest a win here, but better barrier could find a length.. would still need improvement.
Comments: Not a race i’ve overly keen to get involved in at the prices. Lilly Dazzler worth another shot.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Lilly Dazzler to win.
Sandown Race 6 – 1000m – Total Logistic Solutions Handicap
2. Badajoz: O’Shea runner. First prep measured up behind the top quality runners in 2YO grade. First up run at Canterbury was more than enough to see an improved run here with two weeks between runs. They simply got away with murder out front which cost him the race. Looks well in against this lot.
3. Constant Justice: Going through the grades today. Won two in a row with a maiden and then BM-64 on a firm track as well. Looks a handy type with a good turn of foot.
5. Miss Gidget: Two horrible runs since winning her maiden on speed off a slow tempo. Hard to see the improvement here but we know she has class on previous preps runs.
6. Billabong Babe: Form horse. Won her maiden with ease three runs back and since has measured up at the top level with a close 2nd to Miss Idyllic in 3YO grade and then a very gutsy win out front last start at Moonee Valley. Fast horse and will be on speed and hard to get past.
7. Heatherly: Three runs last prep and looked a very good type on what we saw, running times. Barrier 14 so will have to work to get a position. Weighted well enough if she has trained on.
8. Bellomo: Maiden winner last prep then no good behind a few good types at Flemington the next start. Others preferred on form to win.
9. Cool Snitzel: Nice enough maiden winner in first prep at Moe. Tongue over bit when well backed in 2YO-LR grade the next start. Decent enough time at Morphetville last start to win an easier race from on speed. A month between runs to train on also. Evil Dreams has come out and won since in harder class and Validate ran well since also and Caro Kann won since in harder company. Respect form horse.
10. My Passport: Hawkes runner. Nice enough win start to finish at Bendigo last start. Time was only fair, will have to improve on that run. Expect to lead from the 1 today, but i wouldn’t be shocked if Heatherly and Billabong Babe take him on for the lead.
12. Scatter Blast: Easy win at Dunkeld first up in a high priced maiden race. Looks a nice type. Need to see the run today though.
14. Moss Go Now: Couldn’t win a maiden!
Comments: Certainly some value to be had in this race. Billabong Babe is the real deal and the $9+ available is over the correct odds. The same can be said for Cool Snitzel at the $7.50. Heatherly and Badajoz do look the horses to beat but both are under the odds. Scatter Blast also looks a big price and goes into the Quaddie.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 6, 7, 9, 12
Strategy: Back Billabong Babe and Cool Snitzel to win.
Sandown Race 7 – 1000m – City of Greater Dandenong Stakes
1. Tried and Tired: Old mate never runs a bad race! Has won first up, great track record, but never won at distance in the past (did run Politeness to 1.5L over 1100m though). Tough with weight at distance.
3. Grane: This horse is just going from strength to strength this prep. Up 5.5kg today makes it a hard task from barrier 15 where he will go back to last.
4. Office Bearer: Always been a good horse over these distances. Goes well at this track actually with the last win being here. Good 3rd first up at Flemington and will have trained on in the month between runs. 2nd up record is very solid. Barrier only issue.
5. Reldas: Consistent as the day is long. Back to 1000m certainly not his best distance for mine with 1200m exactly what he is wanting, but he does look suited well enough here with only a medium tempo mapped. Back to a dry track the key for this gun horse.
6. Java: Three runs this prep all been very disappointing. Hard to see a turn around in the form. Barrier 14 going to make it extra hard to find a good spot… may be ridden colder?
7. Pago Rock: Always runs well but never looks the winner. Barrier 4 should get a good spot, but i’ve had enough of him this prep.
8. Vatican: Looked the winner at times last start but not good enough. Not going well enough for mine to back here.
9. Wild Rain: Frustrating horse. Looked the winner her last two starts and let one beat her both times. Obviously going well enough and looks nicely weighted, but has to improve to win. Back to 1000m ideal.
10. Danger Close: This is his home away from home with 3 wins from 5 starts at course. 1000m is his distance, but he certainly has to improve onwards from the first up run. 2nd up record is strong.
11. Tuscan Sling: Ignore last start on the heavy track and rate on previous runs which were good enough to measure up here. Barrier an issue for mine as this is a horse that wants clear running.
12. Pretty Possum: Doesn’t win out of turn. Every chance the last two starts and just not good enough. Well weighted on two back run, but last start was too poor to rate here.
14. Audino: Well beaten all runs this prep. Hard to see a win here.
15. Down The Hatch: Close but just missed last start at Moonee Valley. Much harder here and never measured up to this.
Comments: I can’t find a load of advantages in this betting market. There looks to be five clear winning chances with two or three others that could win ‘on their day’.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 5, 9, 10, 11
Strategy: Reldas E/W
Sandown Race 8 – 1300m – Summer Championship Heat 1
1. Taddei Tondo: Every chance last start at Moonee Valley and just not good enough. Down in class but up to 61kg has to be a concern. Did win with 62.5kg three runs back though so we know the horse handles weight. 5 runs 0 wins at track.
2. Del Prado: Has won first up in the past, but never won at track. 6 starts in this class for a win. Won very well at Flemington two runs back on a wet track. Best runs recently have all been on wet.. did win on good at Bendigo but didn’t beat too much that day. Has to be 100% first up and barrier doesn’t help.
3. Galaxy Pegasus: Old(young) mate has cost us a bundle this prep. He keeps running well but not winning. Well back in class to his lowest grade all prep and finds himself off 57kg. Concerns over the barrier is the main issue as he is a horse that wants room and to be racing off the rails.
4. Gallant Harmony: Hard horse to catch! First run at track. 6 runs in class previously but yet to win. First three runs this prep were ‘okay’ but well beaten each time. Has to improve and weight doesn’t help against some other good horses.
5. Mr Backchat: McEvoy runner! Going through the grades back home with a BM-90 win last start in very nice time. Weighted fairly here and can certainly measure up here.
6. Swift Shadow: Put in some very sound efforts last prep including a 1400m 2nd to Gracious Prospect in Open Class at Flemington. Third up now, expect him to be much closer to the speed today than previously ridden this prep. Last start at this course over 1400m he won well from on speed. Has the ability to win.
7. Kirani: Maps to run and lead them around from a wide barrier today. Won with ease last start at Kilmore from on speed back on a dry surface. Has a 2.3L win over Burning Front on the record from last prep. Clearly a good horse and may just get away with very easy sectionals… has a turn of foot.
10. King Buddy: 9YO now. Did a lot wrong last start at Kilmore but fairly beaten. Down 3kg while Kirani is only down 1kg. Barrier hurts to get a good spot in running though.
11. Squeaky Squirrel: Last start winner at Wodonga. Previous run fairly beaten at MV and ditto the previous run by Taddei Tondo.
13. Le Remas: Put him in the books with We’re Gonna Rock. Should retire him.
15. Impulsive Spirit: Out the back last start at Kilmore didn’t help. Fairly beaten favourite last start at Bendigo. Has to improve.
16. Diamondwarrior: Low weight, deserves it. Last win was a maiden in 2014! Best on wetter.
Comments: As the Quaddie numbers suggest, there are several chances in this race, but two front runners on my mapping certainly appeal as the biggest overs in the race in Kirani and Swift Shadow. Their best runs are more than enough to win this.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 7, 15
Strategy: Back Kirani and Swift Shadow to win.
Staking: Win Bets – Kirani 0.65 units @ $13. Swift Shadow 0.35 units @ $23.
Sandown Race 9 – 2400m – Vawdrey Semi Trailers
1. Purple Smile: Stable are confident in him going very well today with 59kg after claims. His run last start at Ballarat was very solid and a good win. Nice barrier, will be on speed or just off it and in the right grade here to win at the weights.
3. Sammy The Snake: Every possible chance last start against Purple Smile and not good enough. Fairly weighted again here. Poor barrier so will be hard to get the lead, may have to settle for outside leader at best.
4. Maharaaj: Two nice wins at Pakenham then has had to go out to country grade to try and get the wins, but he has been well beaten the last two starts. This is harder but he has ability.
5. Crackajack: Maps for a midfield position. Good win in R-58 grade three back and last start got another win just in BM-64. Much harder this.
7. Subiaso: Seems like this guy has been going around forever. Long time between wins. Last start run was fair but has to improve to go close here. Poor barrier. On the 1 week backup which is worth watching.
8. Triple Gold: Frustrating horse. Maiden only winner. Every chance the last two starts and could only manage thirds. Will be back again from the barrier.
9. All I Survey: Four runs this prep and no better than 3.3L off the winners. Struggle to see the improvement. Best run last prep was good enough but had shown good runs before that.
10. Rocknet: Nice win last start at Sale. Consistent type that always seems to run well.
11. Sir Leliani: 6.5L maiden winner over in Ireland over 2400m. First up CL1 8th. Months between runs, looks well placed if as good as is promised.
12. Braidley: Hasn’t won since being imported, alot of runs! Has gone close a few times but this is the hardest run to date. Never won at this class.
13. Maysoor: Maiden winner last start. Ran 2nd in Group 3 company as a 3YO over 2000m.. but this prep took a long time to put it all together. Best runs wer eon soft tracks.
15. Everglades: R-58 winner last start at Bairnsdale. Others preferred on form.
16. Aberfeldy: Maiden win last start at the Bool first time over the 2000m+ distance. Wasn’t the fastest time ever. Has to improve.
Comments: Not the best race to end the day, but there are only a few winning chances. Purple Smile is clear top pick while Sir Leliani as the most improvement to show today.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 9, 11
Strategy: Back both Purple Smile and Sir Leliani.
Staking: Win Bets – Purple Smile 1 unit @ $4.80. Sir Leliani 0.6 units @ 8.00.
