Welcome to The Profits preview for Sandown on 24 December 2016. A very Merry Christmas to all our followers and we hope to be able to fill your santa sack with a few winners today at Sandown. I walked the track Friday morning after the club had put 10mm onto the track and it was still very firm, so expect it to be a nice and hard track overall. The only part of the track I expect them to stay away from is hugging the rail in the straight… and i’m thinking they will be slightly advantaged late in the day swooping about 5-8m off the rail. As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Sandown Race 1 – Invictum Domina – 2 units @ $3.80.
Best Value Bet
Sandown Race 3 – Dance With Fontein – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $8.50/$2.60
Sandown Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 5, 7
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 11
Leg Three: 2, 5, 6, 11
Leg Four: 1, 3, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 1 – 1400m – Blue Star Group
1. Invictum Domina: Haye’s yard best bet of the day. Very promising filly that has been well placed both preps. A very good win at this course and distance last start from on speed and she looks well in here again today with the 3kg claim.
2. Alma’s Rossa: CL1 winner last start at the bool after winning a maiden. Actually going quite well at the moment and can’t be discounted back to 3YO grade.
3. Fillie Champagne: Run very well all of her last three runs even when fairly beaten the past two starts outside of 3YO grade in harder races. Can run well and can win. Good barrier.
4. Lovani: FMB-58 winner last start at Kilmore in a 4 horse race. Didn’t beat much that day. Much harder here.
5. Ardra Storm: Maiden winner last start. Nothing special about the times but she certainly has ability based on the previous run also. Can run well.
6. Wasabi: Average maiden win first up but got the job done. One I’m not convinced on here up to the 1400m.
7. Love In The City: Fairly beaten and failed to place the last three starts in easier grades. Has to improve.
8. Macattack: Couldn’t win in FMB-58 grade last start. Take on.
Comments: Two clear chances here in Invictum Domina and Fille Champagne and the market agrees with both these two being very short in the market. At the prices, I certainly have to lean towards Invictum Domina who will have a length or two on Fillie Champagne coming into the straight and has a very solid final 500m in her back pocket.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Invictum Domina – 2 units @ $3.80.
Sandown Race 2 – 1000m – Yarramalong Racing Club
1. Invincible Al: Very nice win two back at Pakenham over the 1000m and ran up to that mark last start at Fleminton down the straight when a solid 2nd behind Khaki. Back to a long straight around a bend and looks well in from the barrier today. Respect.
2. Capannello: Maiden winner at Bairnsdale. 2YO-Listed 2nd on record at Caulfield last prep. Certainly was a nice win first up and has to be respected.
3. Mr Sneaky: Back to 3YO grade after two close 2nds in BM-64 grade at Geelong and Kyneton. Has ability and always seems to run well.
5. Shot At The Reward: Well bred first starter that has drifted since the markets opened. Have to be pretty good to measure up immediately here, but with 80k on offer, you would try also!
7. Fairly Crafty: Well backed first up in a country maiden but did a few things wrong and was well beaten. Struggle to see the step up here.
8. Casque: Maiden winner last start over 1000m.. previous start was 0.7L 4th over 1700m… strange form lines really. Has to improve.
9. Pearl Congenial: Maiden winner. Previous preps had measured up to much harder over this distance in 2YO grade. 51kg has her very well in today.
Comments: Wide open race. Invincible Al looks to be the best horse in the race while Pearl Congenial is the best weighted horse. I just have to take on mr Sneaky at the price.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Invincible Al and Pearl Congenial.
Sandown Race 3 – 1000m – Argyle Maintenance
1. Big Reel: Well backed last start at Pakenham in a similar grade of race but failed to finish off after going hard out front. Will need to be hard ridden to get over today to lead.
2. Lucky Symbol: Horrible first up in a much harder level of race at Moonee Valley. Last prep a close 2nd in BM-82 grade. Previous prep saw his best runs. Query if he is going well enough to run well here… clearly on past has the ability.
3. Coram: Doesn’t win out of turn this horse. Last prep ran nicely in similar grades to this without winning. Not the best first up runner on past experiences but should run well here. Suited on a Good track.
4. Crystal Dreamer: Strong win first up at Werribee in easier grade. Will appreciate the step up here today and looked a very good type as a 3YO. Looks to have gone onwards with that form and looks well suited here from barrier 4.
5. Dance With Fontein: A nice win first up in ‘harder company’ at Moonee Valley over 955m from off the pace. Wasn’t exactly a big or strong field that day, but she is well back in class here and looks well suited even on a different track. Looks a huge price.
6. Rich Charm: 3YO 3rd behind Speith to end last prep over 1100m and won over 1000m as well the previous start at Flemington. Measured up to similar grades of racing in the past… best runs have all been on soft tracks though but does have wins on Good also… just how firm will it get? First up queries.
8. Prussian Vixen: Lame first up last prep and ran horrible last start. Back in class again but looks well outclassed on everything we have seen last prep… yes she has ability but even so I’d have to take her on here.
9. Amadeus: Continues to put in very solid performances with 5 runs to date. Measured up at 3YO level but was fairly beaten first up behind Crystal Dreamer. Has to improve.
10. I’m A Flying Star: Very poor first up well beaten by Dance With Fontein. previous prep looked to be a nice type that won in BM-70 grade.
11. Kentucky Flyer: Looks well outclassed on first up run and previous prep runs. Probably wants further.
Comments: I’m very happy to be playing Dance With Fontein on the Each-Way based on that strong first up win. The horse looks well suited here. Rich Charm is the one to beat for mine but i’m not convinced the horse will find it’s best on the firm track today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Dance With Fontein – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $8.50/$2.60
Sandown Race 4 – 1800m – Ridgeview Park T’Bred Stud
2. Tears of Joy: Ran well three and four back in harder grade races but the last two starts she has run really poorly and may have been in season (only excuse you can think of?). 21 days between runs and i’d expect a better run today.
3. Domino Vitale: Good win two back at Sandown before last start running very well 2nd behind Hell or Highwater who will go around favourite on Monday in a stronger race. 1800m, Sandown and D Oliver onboard. Maps fine from barrier.
5. Fair and Equitable: Stable not exactly in form and this horse hasn’t won in 8 months. Three runs this prep have been average at best. Has to find lengths.
6. Jennio: Weir runner. Well backed the last two starts. Fairly beaten last start when 2nd favourite with a now weight behind Hell or Highwater and is giving Domino Vitale alot of weight today for a defeat.
7. Lopartega: Consistent horse that is certainly at his highest level in this grade. Good run 2nd to Hell or Highwater two back, but last start failed to finish off at Flemington. Better suited to a shorter straight.
8. Firebird Flyer: Waller runner third up today. Fairly beaten the previous two starts and it’s hard to suggest a win.. 10 runs 0 wins on Good. Wants it wet.
9. Vandancer: Every possible chance last start in easier grade at course and distance. Hard to have as I can’t see any more improvement at this distance.
10. Ashlee Marie: Nice run last start 2nd behind Sweet Melody showing large improvement on the previous two starts. In well here at the weights.
11. My Sanctuary: Weir runner that ran very well here last start over 1600m when beaten 0.5L. Up in distance and third up today will see her run nicely.
12. Mount Omei: beaten 0.1L twice this prep which is a bit of a concern. Doing everything right but just not winning. Clearly going well.
13. Rokeby Red: Couldn’t win last start as favourite in a BM-64 5 horse race. Hard to suggest here.
14. More Spark: Not going well enough this prep to suggest a win here. Place at best.
Comments: A very competitive race with a few key chances in Ashlee Marie, Mount Omei, Domino Vitale and Tears of Joy. At the prices, Domino Vitale gets the nod while Tears of Joy looks the chance at odds.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Domino Vitale to win
Sandown Race 5 – Swettenham Stud Championship (Heat 4)
1. Burning Front: Strong run 2nd last start at Pakenham when well backed $14 into $6 on the day. Clearly found his form already this prep and is the horse to beat over the 1400m on a firm track. Can lead as expected or take a sit just off them.. can win either way but is best setting the tempo if fit enough.
2. Extra Zero: Back at it again as a 10YO. Scored on a Heavy track over 3200m last prep over hurdles. Needs further but can still run okay at this distance. Loves it dry.
3. Tried and Tired: A 7YO now… three runs this prep have been horrible. Last prep scored over 1400m in listed grade but was showing more signs then.
4. Golden Mane: First up over 1400m… hard to suggest a win on previous form over these distances. Just here for a run i’d imagine.
5. Soverign Nation: Just ignore last start in Group 3 company and rate his form on the previous three runs where he measured up in BM-84-90 grade and ran well behind quality horses such as Demonstrate and Shillelagh. Looks well suited and could surprise a few here.
6. Airalign: Big win first up over the 1200m distance running down Bassett late. Better when allowed to roll along and lead and will get that today. Have to respect up to 1400m but first time in this class.
7. Inspector: Ran very well three back 2nd in Listed grade behind Hazzabeel but the last two starts were poor. Hard horse to catch but has the ability to win on his day.
9. Bassett: Had the race done and dusted first up and then threw it away being non-genuine. Up to 1400m for mine looks an ideal throw at the stumps and gets in nicely at the weights. Under the odds though.
Comments: Burning Front is certainly on top pick here but the price doesn’t exactly make you want to get on with more improvement to come this prep. Soverign Nation is the clear danger on paper. Inspector is a crazy price today and is the clear value.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 7
Strategy: Burning Front to win.
Sandown Race 6 – 1600m – Ladbrokes Challenge
1. Black Sheep: Consistent type that continues to run well in this grade. Back in class slightly and up in weight (claimer helps)… ran nicely last start but was a little unlucky given a horrible ride on the day and missed the boat. Forgive and rate on best runs.
2. Dubai King: Two wins in a row going through the grades in solid times and there is no reason why he can’t do it again today. Probably better suited by shorter straights but we honestly don’t know. Tough horse and has ability.
3. Post D’France: Hasn’t won since March 2015. Hasn’t been close the past two preps and was horrible first up. Take on.
4. Aurum Spirit: Stole a win last start at Flemington in harder company. Suited by a long straight again and has won at course in the past. Has to be respected.
5. Villopoto: Open class 3rd behind Judges last start. Certainly going well enough and was 0.3L 3rd behind Dan Zephyr three back. Doesn’t win often and hasn’t since late 2015, but he has to be considered.
6. Rewarding Effort: Huge win last start at Mornington by 4.5L in easier grade. Respect his class and he may have just finally hit peak fitness.
7. Castle Hackett: A bit of a surprise winner at Sandown last start in easier grade. Had shown nothing the previous two runs. Better over further? Win wouldn’t be a total shock.
8. Shockaholic: Ran nicely enough last start 2.1L off Aurum Spirit. Up 3kg today but gets weight off Aurum Spirit. Good win three back but has to improve.
9. Walloon Region: Big run 4th last start at massive odds behind Aurum Spirit. Had every chance and doesn’t have anything else to give you would imagine improvement wise, but he is 2nd up today. Never won in this class and is now a 7YO.
10. Manapine: Looked a good horse in his 2nd prep and won in 3YO-LR over 2500m. First up over 1600m well beaten and even though a month between runs it’s hard to suggest here.
11. Royal Request: 2nd at big odds last start at Geelong and up in distance and class today. Best over further and is a nice horse overall on Darwin form. Win won’t be shocking me here.
Comments: I couldn’t touch the $2.30 for Rewarding Effort here. The horse deserves to be fancied but it’s under the odds I need. Aurum Spirit is over the odds while Royal Request also fits the bill.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 11
Strategy: Back both Aurum Spirit and Royal Request.
Sandown Race 7 – 2400m – OTI Racing
1. Refectory: Best runs last prep were over a similar distance to this, but much later into his prep and on rain affected tracks. Very beaten first up and has to improve.
2. Shikarpour: Scratched from a clash with Goathland and put into this race today after running 2nd to Tunes at Morphetville. Good barrier today but it’s a struggle to see him beating all of them again here when he couldn’t beat Tunes last start!
3. Renew: Hasn’t won a race since 2014 over 3200m. Not a terrible run last start when 2nd up over 2000m 6th. Clearly has to improve here but a win wouldn’t be a total shock on the last start effort.
5. Zourkhan: Waller runner. CL2 winner two back at Kembla on a soft track. Fairly beaten from out the back last start at Rosehill but did run on well enough to suggest he can run well here also.
6. Hardern: Low grade race winner at Geelong last start. Big step up again and up in distance. Wasn’t terrible behind Gallic Chieftain two back.
7. Annus Mirabilis: Two runs this prep and both were horrible. Hasn’t shown any form in more than 12 motnhs. No thanks.
8. Zenithal: Respectable run 5.1L 3rd to Goathland last start. Well beaten by Shikarpour previous start. Has to improve.
9. Alrouz: Never runs a bad race but hasn’t been close to winning recently in easier grade. Has to find about 2 lengths to be competitive today.
10. Timikar: Hasn’t won since mid 2015 in easier grade. Two runs this prep shown nothing. Last prep did run 2nd behind De Little Engine over 2600m. Has to find form.
11. Yogi: Weir runner that appears to be going places. Big step up in distance and up in weight but the suggesting is he will stay the distance and wants it. Beaten in easier in previous runs…
12. Golden Gee: BM-58 winner to start the prep but hasn’t won since. Never won on a Good track. Hard to suggest on current form for the win.
13. Bamberg: Maiden winner. Failed to place all three runs this prep in easier.
14. He’s A Genius: BM-70 3rd behind Hardern. Needs to improve to place.
Comments: Wide open race now with many chances after the scratching of GrandDukeOfTuscany. Not convinced any of these are backable today on previous runs.
Confidence 55%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 5, 6, 11
Strategy: Shiarpour to win
Sandown Race 8 – 1300m – Le Pine Funerals
1. Spirit or Lager: Slow out and blocked for a run last start at Mornington. Up in distance and similar class. Has to improve but has the ability to run well. Won several times in this class.
3. Harbour Grey: Yet to get a win this prep with 5 runs no worse than top 5. Beaten favourite the past two runs including a run at course and distance. Clearly a top chance.
5. Top Me Up: Took a sit last start at Moonee Valley from a good barrier and failed to finish off. Really hard to suggest based on that run, but was a good run two back. Weight hurts.
7. Ma Jones: First up today and goes well at this distance and track. Weir runner. Goes around as favourite almost every run. Back to a firm track should suit. Swooper.
8. Pure Addiction: Good win last start at Sale in a very strong time on the day. Barrier the only concern. Can run well.
9. Labuan Star: Favourite today after winning two of his last three. Good times but really has to improve onwards and upwards again for mine.
10. Hunting Hill: Hasn’t won the past two preps. Fairly beaten last start in an easier race. Hard to suggest on current form.
12. Tango Rock: Beaten favourite last start at Pakenham over an unsuitable 1000m. Up in distance well suited here but a tricky barrier. 3YO winner and beat Divine Mr Artie last prep. Respect.
13. Downhearted: Fairly beaten in the country last start in similar class first up. Last prep measured up at this type of grade. Will improve 2nd up.
15. Mr Optimistic: Needs some of that optimism bringing the horse here. Hard to see the win.
Comments: Wide final leg of the day in the Quaddie representing how wide open this race is. tango ROck top pick but several chances to win this at odds.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13
Strategy: Tango Rock to win.
