Welcome to The Profits form guide for Sandown on the 14 November 2015. The Flemington Carnival is now over and we did have a final day to forget with nothing going our way. There are several good races on offer today and while there isn’t any short priced favourite deserving of our best bet, we think we are on the correct horses today as long as the course plays as expected, fair to all runners. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Sandown Race 2 – Northern Model Each-Way
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Sandown Race 8 – Almoonqith Each-Way
Melbourne Best Value Bet
Sandown Race 3 – In Style – Each-Way
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 5, 7, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 7
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10, 18
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 1 – 1000m – Santa’s Magical Kingdom Stakes
1. Jackson: Stable is flying. Landed a nice win at Flemington last week in 2YO grade. Trial was fair. Respect stable.
2. Los Cabos: Trialed well enough. Blinkers on will see extra improvement. Rare you see them do the blinker job here from that stable after a trial. Kept under wraps.
3. Perpetual Crisis: Not often you see the Weir stable with a 2YO. Market only guide. Has been backed.
4. Preemptive: Two runs to date and yet to get close. Hard to see the improvement here.
6. Emphatically: Might just have to ignore the first up run. Got out the back after getting hit out of the gates and didn’t let down. Expect much more today.
7. Missrock: Very strong win first up. Last start no disgrace at Flemington against the bias. Looks well suited from the barrier 3!
8. Motown Lil: Ran nicely out the front first up at Flemington. Has to improve on that for mine.
9. Madam Stryker: Market only guide. Hasn’t been backed.
10. Soviet Secret: Market only guide. Has been backed.
11. Sweet Varden: Well backed in after winning trial impressively. Well enough bred and McEvoy McDonald combo.
Comments: Too many unknowns to be overly confident. Missrock clearly the best we have seen to date and you have to feel the yards would have ran their VERY best horses last week rather than holding them off for a non carnival event?
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Missrock to win.
Sandown Race 2 – 1400m – Greater Dandenong Stakes
1. Antelucan: Looked a very good horse winning first ever run as a 2YO down the Flemington straight. Failed in the prelude then failed as favourite well beaten 3rd to Takedown (who hasn’t backed up that form this prep) 3.5L 3rd. First up run was wide during the race but was very poor. Very hard to rate, but you know it’s best runs are good enough.
2. Mihalic: Another who won a race down the Flemington straight as a 2YO then shown very little since. Three runs this prep well beaten each time. Has to improve.
3. Tiz My View: Didn’t beat much first up to win the BM-64. Not a bad run actually two back at MV but fell out of it fast last start at Flemington with the tempo on out front. Gut buster run and 11 days between runs. Struggle to suggest.
4. Queen of Wands: One win to date. It was a good win at course and similar distance, but she hasn’t produced a winning run since or been close in this class. Nice enough run last start but will she get a similar tempo today? Poor barrier.
5. Indarra: Maiden. Very good run from midfield last start at Flemington for 2nd behind Don’t Doubt Mamma. Very strong form lines and looks well suited and maps well. Big hope.
6. Irada: Finished off well enough but certainly didn’t have the required grind last start at Flemington. Won’t be as hot a speed today which should suit, but barrier 1 for a horse that goes back.. need clear running to find her best. I’m off her today.
7. Northern Model: Well beaten by 2 lengths last start into 4th, but it was still a nice run wide out on the track behind some good types when back markers were simply not favoured on the day. Was only asked for an effort the final 200m when got clear really and was very hard to handle. Will be suited by the long straight. Best final 200m in 12.07, beating Serene Majesty’s 12.14! They opened the horse up $14s and the big betters went BLONK, straight into single figures. Still looks a very good price.
8. Miss Wilson: Does a lot wrong in runs. Well beaten last two starts and back down to 1400m to try repeat the first up run. Much harder this. Struggle to suggest with all her issues.
9. Russian Empress: Didn’t beat a great deal last start at Cranbourne. Certainly an improvement on the two back run at Pakenham. Obviously has ability but that was a leaders track also.
10. Navita: Maiden winner two back then failed in harder class. Struggle to suggest.
11. Orvassa: Maiden winner in an average race. Not the worst run last start but still this is MUCH harder.
12. Micondesa: Beat Indarra in a maiden two runs back at Ballarat. Have to suggest she has franked the form on that run. Wide gate an issue, will be going forward from the gate so needs to jump well.
13. Change Sister: Nice enough start to finish win last start. Didn’t have to beat much and got a nice enough time out the front times wise. Has to improve. Barrier disadvantage.
14. La Fleurette: Kilmore maiden winner. Very average form lines. Others preferred.
Comments: I’m convinced on the last start run that if Northern Model can position slightly further forward than… well… last… from the inside barrier.. that the horse is a massive price compared to rated price. This horses sectionals are hard to ignore from last start. Expecting the speed to be set with all the maiden winners coming over from out wide battling for a spot.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Northern Model E/W
Sandown Race 3 – 1300m – Kevin Heffernan Stakes
1. Smokin’ Joey: One win first up from 11 runs and hasn’t been a recent win. Always seems to take a few runs to find his best. His best on last prep is good enough but does need the run normally. Good record at the track
2. Famous Seamus: Disappointing runs last two starts. Ran nicely 4th and 5th in first two runs of the prep. Hard to see a form turn around.
3. Generalife: Nice enough run on speed. Blocked for runs. Beaten 1.3L by a decent enough horse. Previous run wasn’t good enough to win this though. Has to improve but going the right way.
4. Under The Louvre: Barrier should mean he gets a no excuse run tomorrow off the rails. Never got a run at them last start at Flemington. Will be better suited by the step back up to 1300m today and will appreciate the length of this straight. Every chance.
5. Gracious Prospect: Nice enough run on speed at Flemington last start. Was he suited by the soft track last start with 0 wins from 9 starts on soft? Going the right way.. takes a few runs to get into his prep to find his very best though. Step up in class.
6. Mister Milton: Horrible last start never a chance. Surely not on last few runs. Can’t in this.
7. Taddei Tondo: The Ton won quite well 2nd up in MUCH easier class. Big step up in grade this one and 4 runs 0 wins at this track.
8. Java: Gave in very quickly last start at Caulfield. Previous run was much better. Another month between runs. Has ability but yet to measure up to the top level of class just yet.
9. Galaxy Pegasus: Jumped poorly last start and out the back… ran well for 3rd but never winning. Costly horse with ability but has a few quirks. Hard to see in this grade today.
10. Bring Me The Maid: Very best runs in the past have been on wetter tracks. Ran poorly last start. Hard to have.
11. In Style: Just ignore the fact she went around as our best bet first up and missed the start by 5 lengths. Won’t be happening today. Will be on speed out the front leading them around and setting a very solid tempo. They will have to be good to get past her!
Comments: Old mate Under The Louvre has been well backed again today. He is clearly the horse to beat on form, as always. In Style is the value in the race and I think will prove to be very hard to get past.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: In Style E/W. Also betting Under The Louvre.
Sandown Race 4 – 1500m – Sandown Stakes
1. Ninth Legion: Horrible run last start but no surprise on a wetter track. Every chance two back at Sale. Was nice enough for 4th three back in Group 1 company. Has to improve on everything we have seen to date.
2. Charmed Harmony: Had the track to suit last start at Flemington but got given a horror ride by Opie Bosson. His best runs have been on Good 4 – Soft 6 ground, but there is every chance we get only a Good 3 track. There are very light showers expected in the afternoon and they would be hoping one of them hits just before the race to put a little top surface moisture for him. I actually think the Good track helps him a little to fully handle the 1500m, but it’s always a tough ask for this horse. Did handle Good at Caulfield this prep. Need to trust the fact that Bossy will let him roll and push him around in a solid tempo and not just sit until the 300m.
3. Star Rolling: Horrible both runs last prep. Last win was more than a year ago but was in a solid enough WFA-G2 race… was able to control the speed that day though. Hard to see the win here for mine.
4. Mr Utopia: Well backed last start at Flemington when well beaten. Bucked at the start. Was never in the race from 10m into the race! Strange really. Expect much better here and will be well suited up to 1500m back to a good track.
5. Akavoroun: Change of tactics on speed last start at Sale. Stewards questioned but no action #nosurprise. Best runs have been in easier races the last three preps and hasn’t been able to win with just 1 place from last 11 starts. Has to improve. Barrier is good.
6. Hosting: Running better this prep than the results suggest. Well in at the weights today here. Will be out the back but running on late.
7. Eximius: Every chance at Sale and just not going well enough yet. Has to improve.
8. Good Project: Probably won’t be running. Nice enough in easier class last start at Flemington. Would be a chance if running.
9. Burning Front: Massive improvement to run well last start at Flemington and just missed on the heavy track. Short break between runs, will run well again.
10. Harada Bay: Hard to dismiss his form this prep with strong runs both runs this prep. Has to improve here though. Loves a strong tempo.
11. Timeless Prince: Every chance last few runs this prep and well beaten. Take on for mine.
12. Tashbeeh: Too far back last start at Flemington. Obviously a good type but big improvement needed here at the weights.
13. Staviva: Hard to have on last three runs. 6 runs 0 places at similar distances.
14. Our Positive Move: Best runs have been over 2000m in past. Take on for mine.
Comments: Waller Stable have all but scratched Good Project and I would have been betting around the horse from the barrier at the prices today… Happy to back both Charmed Harmony and Mr Utopia here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Charmed Harmony for 1.5 units and Mr Utopia for 1 unit to win.
Sandown Race 5 – 2400m – Zipping Classic
2. Who Shot Thebarman: Ran very well in the Melbourne Cup and was one who found trouble in running in the final 200m. Won 3 from 7 at this distance in the past and his run at Flemington in Group 1 class over 2000m three runs back shows he is good enough over this distance. Suited by a small field.. will be ridden exactly as they should ride him.
3. Sertorius: 5th fastest final 600m in the Melbourne Cup! Did a lot wrong but was suited by the slow tempo. Horrible previous two runs over 2400m with speed on. Needs them to run it at a medium to slow tempo to have a chance.
4. Tall Ship: Been very well backed today finally up to 2400m. Been crying out for the distance all prep. Best runs in the past though have been on wetter tracks than this. Has to have improved for mine to win at these weights.
5. Don Doremo: The main runner in the race which is outclassed. Will most likely be the leader in the race looking to setup a strong tempo which is the only way he has a chance.
6. Rising Romance: Has the turn of foot to win this if they don’t push it along out the front today. Looked the winner last start at Flemington but Gailo Chop is a tough horse to beat. Going more than well enough to win this.
7. Kirramosa: Ran very well last start behind The Offer in the Bendigo Cup. Probably should have been winning if saddle didn’t slip. Has to improve to win this.
8. Do You Remember: Horrible first up over 1600m. Straight up to 1400m and has a good second up record and record over this distance. Hard to ignore considering WFA-G1 2nd over 2200m on record.
Comments: I’m not seeing a great deal of value betting into this race. If there is a slow tempo in the race I think Sertorius and Rising Romance are proven sectional wise, while Do You Remember’s times suggest the horse has a turn of foot also. Not confident to be betting here.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Rising Romance to win.
Sandown Race 6 – 1800m – Eclipse Stakes
1. Puccini: Old Mate is a Group 1 winner over the 1600m in NZ from last prep. Shown absolutely nothing this prep though is a real issue. If theres a stable to follow if the cash comes though…
2. Rudy: Just not going well enough to measure up at the top level this prep on the firmer tracks. Take on.
3. Jacquinot Bay: Respectable race last start at Flemington just missing for 4th. Did a fair bit wrong that day and will be much better suited here back to a track he has an awesome record on. No excuses.
4. Desert Jeuney: Showed nothing last start at Flemington. Two back run at Pakenham was fair, but not for this level of race. Has to improve.
5. Malice: They continue to back him but he was well beaten last start at Flemington into second. Can run well again but has to improve.
6. Worthy Cause: Beat Turn me Loose three runs back, but that has to be considered a one off. Been lengths off the winners the last two runs in similar company. Barrier helps today to get a position, but will certainly need to improve on last two runs to win this.
7. Digitalism: Loves the speed on and will get it today. Tough grinder. Barrier 2 will be just off the speed and every chance. Key hope.
8. Calvin Williams: No excuses last start at Flemington. Type of runner you need to watch to see if the money comes for from this stable. Best runs have been on firm and we may just go close to that if the rain misses tomorrow.
9. Scream Machine: Never runs badly.. been a long time between drinks and been over-racing this prep.
10. Tristram’s Sun: Good enough win at Kyneton last start. Goes very well at this track over this distance in the past. Charmed Harmony always had one over on him here. Going well enough to consider… 15 runs 1 place in this class in the past!
11. Casino Dancer: Down from Sydney ran well 3rd in mares Group 2 grade behind Lucia Valentina last weekend. Goes better on the dryer tracks, has to be considered.
12. Slate on Edge: Smashed a greys race field with ease last start at Flemington. Comes in well at the weights today.. win wouldn’t exactly shock on last start but does have to improve.
13. Garud: Nice run 3rd to Awesome Rock last start. On the right track and certainly a talented type. Further back today than last start.
14. Cadillac Mountain: Found his very best last prep over 2000m+. Never won 2nd up in the past.
17. Plot The Course: Close 2nd to Berisha last start at Flemington at good odds. Have to improve big time for this.
18. Durnford: Hard to see the win.. been a long time between drinks and didn’t inspire first up.
Comments: Wide open race, but we are only going five deep here in he Quaddie leg. Digitalism is the best mapped horse today in the race sitting just off the speed from barrier 2 and will be well suited to the tempo… the $26+ is certainly over the odds. Worthy Cause looks massive unders as well as Scream Machine. Jacquinot Bay will need to produce his best to win, but we know he can.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 5, 7, 9, 10
Strategy: Digitalism E/W
Sandown Race 7 – 1600m – Sandown Guineas
1. Dal Cielo: Disappointing down the straight. Back to 1600m today and you would expect they try lead and set a hot tempo back on the firm track. Good enough on form to run well.
2. Mahuta: Good win last start holding off a decent type in Patch Adams. Form lines are solid and can improve on those two runs. Will need to give his best though to be a chance.
3. Marky Mark: Very talented horse back in NZ. Ran Dal Cielo to 2.3L over 1200m then backed that up with his own Group 1 win over 1400m. Two runs this prep were less than desirable but more than a month between runs should be top of his game. Only issue is minor setback coming into this.
4. Demonstrate: Non-winner! Good runs last two runs but well beaten at Moonee Valley then found another too good last start. Much harder here.
5. Gredington: Good enough run two back but then well beaten last start at Flemington. Hard to rate. Needs it really firm?
6. Patch Adams: Very strong closing sectionals last start at Flemington against the trend in the race. Going well enough to consider. May need it wetter to find best?
8. Sea of Tranquility: Hit the front a long way out last start but was ground down by an okay type in Hursley. Was clearly the heavy track that got him home second. Horrible barrier again.
9. Flying Light: Well beaten last two starts. Take on here.
10. Ngarimu: Ran a game race last start at Flemington but never looked comfortable on the ground. Back to firmer should suit.
11. Shockaholic: Not a top class horse. Take on.
12. Don’t Doubt Mamma: She’s a good type. Huge win last start at Flemington. Loves the speed on. Top class.
14. Maysam: Nice enough run 5th last start. Beaten fairly. Not for me.
15. Zafaki: Maiden winner. Average time. Take on.
Comments: Not overly confident here. Several good horses all with chances in this. Don’t Doubt Mamma the best of them while Patch Adams has shown enough to suggest he can go close.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 12
Strategy: Don’t Doubt Mamma to win. Smaller bet Patch Adams
Sandown Race 8 – 3200m – Sandown Cup
1. The Offer: 8th in the Melbourne Cup. Stays at 3200m. Has a turn of foot as proven last start in the cup. Top weight here. Obviously a top chance.
2. Almoonqith: Just ignore last start. Will be pushing further forward than last today. Clearly if the speed is on he is very well suited here. Looks a very good chance based on form to date.
3. Grand Marshal: One of the many runners smashed during runs in the Melb Cup. Obviously has the ability to run well but hasn’t shown it this prep.
4. Precedence: Old mate is now 10. Not going well enough.
5. De Little Engine: Gem of a ride to win last start at Flemington. Much harder this. Not for mine.
6. Like A Carousel: Every chance well beaten last start at Flemington. Really wanting the 3200m and a good track but clearly has to improve.
7. Maygrove: Continues to run well and up to 3200m looks ideal here for the horse. Can improve.
8. Renew: Well back, didn’t find alot at all last start. Been horrible all prep. Should go fine at distance but not on current form.
9. Tremec: Ran very well last start beaten 1L by De Little Engine. Horrible barrier again, go forward and push tempo.
10. Manalapan: Looks to be the key leader in the race today. Showed nothing first up at Flemington. Never run over distance in past. Runs over in Ireland won over 2600m on Good track. Not sure he is good enough on what we have seen, but 54kg gets him in okay?
11. Sasenkile: Not got within more than 3.3L this prep against much easier. Never measured up to this level and can’t see it today.
12. Pop ‘N’ Scotch: Well beaten last start at Flemington. Ran Zanteca to 0.8L at Geelong previous start. Goes well at distance but never won at it or in class.
13. Planet Purple: Not won in a long time. Never placed in 3 tries at distance and no win in 17 tries in class.
15. Refectory: we know the horse will get the 3200m… but he has proven this prep he isn’t this class.
Comments: Three main chances for me in The Offer, Almoonqith and Maygrove. All signs point to Almoonqith for mine. Looks a big price on paper. Very few winning chances on paper for this race.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 7
Strategy: Almoonqith Each-Way
Sandown Race 9 – 1500m – Summoned Stakes
1. Solicit: Every chance on speed last start at Flemington just not good enough on the day. Back to firmer track suits for mine. Run two back good enough to consider.
2. Tycoon Tara: Very strong win last start at Ararat. Up to 1500m looks really ideal today. Can improve on that run again.
3. Coronation Shallan: Good win two back on speed at MV on the monorail. Not the worst run last start at Flemington 7th in Group 1 company. Has ability.
4. Scarlet Billows: Big win last start at Flemington from off the speed coming over the top with a devastating finish. Can repeat here.
5. She’s Clean: Blocked for run last start at Flemington but the ship had sailed. Have to improve on last start run today to be a chance.
6. Minnie Downs: Two runs in a row well beaten. Thought first up wasn’t too bad but then horrible last start. Hard to suggest.
7. Precious Gem: Continues to run well but just missed last start in much easier class. Has to improve.
8. Anfitriona: Going through the grades again. Nice win last start from on speed in slow time at MV. Have to improve from barrier from that last start run, but clearly has ability.
9. Ballet Suite: Scratched last start from wide barrier at Flemington. Stable have a big opinion of her. Back to 1500m no issues and clear running will see her going close.
10. Japhils: One of two main on speed runners. Back to firmer track suited but no disgrace last start. Beaten by a good horse two back also.
11. Mossbeat: Loves to run well and not win. Goes well at this track. Barrier hurts chances significantly for getting a good spot in running. Unlucky horse.
12. Lilly Dazzler: Every chance last start not good enough. Others preferred.
13. Matilija: Too far back last start at Flemington when missing the start. Back to firmer track but previous two runs on it haven’t been good enough to measure up to these. Strange horse to rate.
15. Andrassy: Will be just off the speed today i’d imagine. FMB-70 win up to this looks a big jump.
16. Coup De Beel: Every chance in BM-64 grade last start. No.
17. Holy Cow: Not the worst run last start at MV. Can improve but not here.
18. Mefnodda: Two wins in a row. Looks to have talent.. Another step up required but won very well last start.
19. Samertha Heights: BM-64 winner. Huge jump. No.
20. Felicienne: Can’t see this.
Comments: Wide open race to finish the day. No betting, wide Quaddie leg to build us some value hopefully.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10, 18
Strategy: Scarlet Billows to win.
