Welcome to The Profits preview for Sandown on 12 November 2016. The Melbourne Cup carnival is done and dusted, but the classy runners have remained around for this awesome Saturday card at Sandown. Our best bet of the Spring appears today and we are very confident of some strong results. Fingers are always crossed and hope we get the right runs in traffic. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Sandown Race 3 – Qewy – 7 units @ $2.20. Swacadelic – 1.5 units @ $9.50.
Next Best Bet
Sandown Race 7 – Big Orange – 2 units to win @ $4.60 & 3 units to place @ $1.67
Best Each-Way
Sandown Race 2 – Royal Rapture – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $6/$2.60
Best Value Bet
Sandown Race 10 – Sweet Redemption 0.75 units Each-Way @ $13/4
Sandown Quaddie
Leg One: 2, 3
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 7, 11
Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 8, 11, 12, 13
Leg Four: 2, 6, 9, 10, 12, 15
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 1 – 1000m – Thoroughbred Club Merson Cooper Stakes
As always, i’m keen not to get involved this early in the day into horses coming out of trials or with unseen form. The McEvoy yard continue to purchase the cream of the crop of the 2YOs and send them over here for wins and it’s hard to best against them with Mikuni and Vinland today. The Griffiths yard always find a good one also and Zarpoya looks well in here.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Vinland top pick from Zarpoya.
Sandown Race 2 – 1500m – Yarramalong Racing Club Stakes
1. Stratum Star: Three runs this prep. I thought the run two back over 1400m was good from well back in the run. Looks to be in at the right distance and well back in class. Looks quite well suited to sit just off the speed today if not lead them around.
2. Royal Rapture: Ran horrible last start at Moonee Valley when a very slowly run race and never handled the track that day. Back to a firmer track and more traditional distance that he goes strongly over. Looks to get an easy sit on speed with the stable mate and is well enough in at the weights.
3. Slightly Sweet: Two runs this prep and beaten fairly in both attempts. Last prep failed to place and same with previous prep also. It’s a struggle to suggest anything better here.
4. Redkirk Warrior: Ran very well first up over the unsuitable 1200m behind Sir Bacchus. Group 1 2nd over 1800m in the past over in Hong Kong in 2015. Goes well over this distance and is clearly a very good horse well in at the weights.
5. Sovereign Nation: Ran nicely for 2nd at Flemington last start behind Demonstrate who has failed running since. Big step up in class again.
6. Inspector: Been well beaten at all starts this prep. Was certainly an improved run last start behind Master Reset, but even so, he is outclassed.
7. Un De Sceaux: 3YO winner over 1400m but since coming back this prep has been well defeated all 4 runs. Should be the rank outsider.
Comments: Sovereign Nation looks the clear unders of the race while i’m not convinced the race will be run to suit Redkirk Warrior either today with the two Weir runners controlling the tempo. Royal Rapture will have it run to suit to sit on speed and sprint away from them down the straight.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Royal Rapture – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $6/$2.60
Sandown Race 3 – 3200m – Ladbrokes Sandown Cup
1. Qewy: Looks the clear leader based on everything we have seen to date and ran a blinder in a hot run Melbourne Cup for 4th. Obviously a strong step down in grade and only has to run a similar rating to win this.
2. Bring Something: Been running ‘well’ heading into this without exactly going close in easier races. Should get the distance but it’s certainly hard to suggest a win.
3. De Little Engine: Loves a long distance race but has never won over this distance and was beaten by two worse times last time over the 3200m. Fairly beaten in the Lexus and Queen Elizabeth the past two starts. Has to improve.
4. Swacadelic: Sat out the back last start with 0.5kg less than Kinema and went back. Ridden for luck and held up for runs at critical stages in the straight. Got going about 350m out and finished off strongly through the field. Ran the 2nd fastest last two 200m splits only behind the quality winner. Will appreciate a stronger final 600m with every chance here.
5. Murphy’s Delight: Found the line nicely enough last start from last, but had every possible chance, gives Swac 1.5kg today and had worse sections final 200m and final 400m. Hard to suggest the improvement.
7. Tunes: Loves a good staying contest but hasn’t ever won over this distance in the past. Ran fairly last start with Poon onboard at Morphetville over 1950m and three runs back fairly defeated over 2500m. Others are higher class.
8. Four Carat: In poorly at the weights today giving 5kg to Swac and a few less kgs to Murphy’s Delight, certainly ran on nicely enough last start at Flemington and ran well only beaten 0.3L, but the weight has him done over here for mine.
10. All I Survey: Well beaten last start behind Swac and Kinema etc. Previous start well beaten behind Qewy. Hard to suggest here.
11. Bullish Stock: Previously his best runs have been over distance with a 2800m 3rd in the VRC St Leger. Fairly beaten last start behind Cinnamon Carter last start has me questioning the horse here.
Comments: Two CLEAR standouts here and i’m VERY keen to bet.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Qewy – 7 units @ $2.20. Swacadelic – 1.5 units @ $9.50.
Sandown Race 4 – 1000m – OTI Racing Doveton Stakes
1. The Bowler: Group winner two preps back but then couldn’t find a win last start in listed grade. Best runs have been over further recently and I’d struggle to back with top weight here first up.
2. Miss Promiscuity: Horrible last start down the straight at Flemington and surely the type of horse that is well suited by the strong tempo and tough test here at Sandown. If she is going to win this prep, this looks the ideal race.
3. Husson Eagle: His very best runs are more than good enough to figure and win this today. Always seems to run very well first up and from a good gate today shouldn’t have to settle last you imagine. Well in at the weights.
5. Vezalay: Produced a solid enough run first up when 3rd behind Palazzo Pubblico and 0.1L infront of Miss Promiscuity that day. Nicely in at the weights and jus wasn’t suited last start. First time at track and goes well over the distance.
6. O’malley: Good win last start on the wet track at Moonee Valley beating a nice wet tracker in Jungle Edge. Back to dryer here and back up to 1000m on a longer straight. Clearly has the ability to measure up.
7. Bullpit: Well beaten last start down the straight at Flemington. Short backup here. Goes well at the track but clearly has to improve on first two runs.
8. Jungle Edge: Ran nicely last start pushing O’Malley to 0.5L. Dryer track today and while he will and can run well, his best is on wetter. Would love some rain just before the race. Poor barrier.
10. Rock ‘n’ Gold: Beaten 4L by Another Diamond last start and Another Diamond was beaten last night. Hard to suggest up to this grade.
11. Brockhoff: Always suggested he was a very nice type with good placings in Group company, but has only won 2 races ever and never in this grade. Very average first up over 955m.
Comments: Tough betting race. Miss Promiscuity is a big price today while Husson Eagle deserves to be close to favourite on her best runs in the past.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Husson Eagle to win. Also back Miss Promiscuity.
Sandown Race 5 – 1400m – City of Greater Dandenong Twilight Glow Stakes
1. Sword of Light: Continues to run well this prep putting in some bad runs but mostly very good runs. Fit enough to get a testing 1400m as shown last start. Horrible barrier but I can still see her getting over and getting a spot off the leaders. Win wouldn’t shock.
2. Hear the Chant: Much better than the effort we saw last start at Flemington. Back to around a turn today and up to 1400m… a bit of an unknown but she looks the type to get the distance. Clearly a top class horse.
3. Flying Jess: Horrible last start. Previous run at Caulfield had merit. Has to improve onwards though.
4. Want to Rock: Well down in grade last start to get a run at Bendigo after being well beaten the previous three starts in harder grade. Has to improve here.
5. Prompt Response: Strong run from on speed at Flemington last start to just be defeated by Jennifer Lynn. Barrier 2 and a huge chance again today well suited.
6. Quick Feet: Seemed to have every possible chance last start at Flemington. Similar barrier and opportunity here.
7. Moonlites Choice: FMB-70 winner last start after winning a BM-64. Stable likes to do this then chuck them back to 3YO grade and has had strong results doing this previously. Does have to improve though on my ratings.
9. Moonlover: Not up to this grade of race on the previous runs. Have to take on.
10. Angharad: Two runs this prep not very well backed and fairly beaten on both occasions. Step up in distance ideal here but barrier an issue and so is the form leading into this.
11. Another Bullseye: Ran very well a little further back than expected on the rails from barrier 1 shuffled and finished off strongly. Previous start form also strong. Very well in here and barrier 7 is ideal. Chance!
12. Ghenwaa: Probably a bit stiff getting to the front a little early last star tin much easier grade. Has to improve onwards though to measure up here.
14. Petition: Flew home for 2nd behind Jennifer Lynn last start at Caulfield with a strong run from out the back. Maps well again today from the barrier going back and will come home well.
15. Alaskan Sun: Horrible form this prep. hard to suggest a win or place.
16. A Sterling Dash: Well beaten last start in 3Yo-64 grade. Beaten in BM-64 previous start. Has to improve.
18. I’ll Decide: Maiden winner first up over 1050m in Adelaide. Was a strong win in my opinion from the back. Barrier 1 probably a negative? Gets a tick for the run and can improve you would imagine up in distance.
19. Lilac Wine: Couldn’t win a maiden heading into this today. Struggle to suggest.
Comments: I really like the chances of Prompt Response here today. Gets the lead and can run well, will take a good thing to run him down. Sword of Light is the value once again if can get a good spot from the wide gate.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Prompt Response to win. Also a small bet on Sword of Light.
Sandown Race 6 – 1600m – Ladbrokes Sandown Guineas
1. Morton’s Fork: Tough run 2nd last start behind a very good type on Comin Through. Previous start a moral beaten. Clearly well in here from a very positive barrier and maps for the ideal run today as long as Williams doesn’t get him trapped 3-wide from the good barrier.
2. Benz: Had his chances the past two runs in similar grades of races. Up in distance doesn’t look to be what this bloke is wanting for mine and I have to take him on.
3. Ruthven: Nice type going forward. Good win last start at Geelong but clearly has to improve.
4. Wimborne: Not good enough for this. My horse flashed past this bloke at Pakenham five runs back over 1400m.
5. Fomo: Couldn’t win a CL1 last start. Maiden win previous wasn’t overly strong.
6. Stornaway: Couldn’t win a maiden last start. Well beaten previous two runs over similar distance.
7. Faraway Town: Every chance the two runs to date in similar company over similar distances. Previous prep she was 4th 3L off prized icon on a soft track in Group 1 class and placed 4.5L 3rd to Yankee Rose. Needs the rain to come but i’m not convinced this horse is going well.
8. Jennifer Lynn: Strong win two back at Caulfield and then backed that up with an impressive win at Flemington. Going from strength to strength and from barrier 4 will map well today and have the class to come over the top. Huge chance and under-rated by the market.
9. Soviet Secret: Maiden winner last start and only just. hard to see the step up in class even off 2YO form.
Comments: I actually can’t see anything outside of the top two in the market winning here and i have them far ahead of the rest of them. Both map similar in running and both will be coming hard late.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Quinella bet Morton’s Folk and Jennifer Lynn.
Sandown Race 7 – 2400m – Quayclean Zipping Classic
1. Who Shot Thebarman: Couldn’t have run any better ridden cold out the back in the Melbourne Cup and flew home for 5th beaten 6.9L. Clearly not as advantaged back to 2400m today though but will certainly run well.
2. Big Orange: Very well in here today back to WFA conditions and was clearly the best horse home in the Cup of those out the front. Clear leader in the race and will get the right pace on in the race. 2400m winner last prep at Ascot in WFA-G2 grade. Only negative could be the rain around. Loves it firm.
3. Almoonqith: Nice run 6th in the Melbourne Cup but was certainly outclassed on the day. Poorly in at the weights against others here today but obviously ran a cracker of a race in the Caulfield Cup. Win wouldn’t be a total shocker but has to improve again.
4. Secret Number: Just ignore the fact he went around at Flemington in the Melbourne Cup given a torrid on speed run that was never going to suit. Will get a much easier run today and looks a clear top chance… but isn’t that well weighted today is the key issue.
5. Tristram’s Sun: Ran very well behind Taiyoo last start at Kyneton but should have won from that run. Can’t win this.
6. Transfer Allowance: Well beaten last start behind Oceanographer and previous start wasn’t disgraced behind Authoritarian but clearly is outclassed here.
7. Beautiful Romance: Ran a nice race after missing the start in the Melbourne Cup and got home for 7th. Best runs in the past had been 2000 up to 2400m so doesn’t look out of place here today but is giving a few a lot of weight.
8. So Si Bon: Gets in with a low weight after a strong derby 4th when blocked for runs and over raced early… fair effort that day but this is a huge step up in class again and tough for a horse of this age to go on with it. Hasn’t won in last 4 runs.
Comments: Big Orange is weighted to win here today and will get the time of his life on speed with no real issues. Who Shot Thebarman is a query back in distance for mine and Secret Number while a good horse is giving Big Orange a lot of weight here. I really just can’t suggest SO Si Bon at the price which is well under my ratings. Almoonqith looks the main threat on my ratings but I don’t think it will be run fast enough for him.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3
Strategy: Big Orange – 2 units to win @ $4.60 & 3 units to place @ $1.67
Sandown Race 8 – 1300m – Kevin Heffernan Stakes
1. Lucky Hussler: Been given a very strange prep by the Weir stable never pushed out belong 1200m in his first two races this prep. Hasn’t gone close on either occasion. This is a 1600m Group 1 winner. Up to 1300m will help today and so will going back to WFA-G2 class, but he clearly has to improve onwards again.
2. Under The Louvre: Ran quite well I thought 1.8L 5th behind Rebel Dane in the WFA-G1 at Moonee Valley. Step up to 1300m looks a really progressive step for him and so is the longer straight today around a turn. The rain won’t be an issue and he is a Group 1 winner, don’t forget it!
3. Famous Seamus: Listed winner leading from start to finish last start beating some average types at Hawksbury. Won’t like the rain that is due and has to improve.
4. Illustrious Lad: The pure untapped potential of the race. Ran a blinding rating last start at Flemington over the 1300m. Last start over further than 1200m was 1250m and won by 4.5L that day. Won’t disappoint over the extra distance but only query is how far back he will be today from the barrier and the weight against proven G1 horses.
5. Burning Front: Old mate is at the start of what has to be a very long prep. Best runs have been 1400-1600m and his first up run was simply horrid. Rawiller off says a lot.
6. Tried and Tired: Hard horse to catch but when they come for him they generally aren’t far off. First up they let him go around at huge odds and he ran accordingly. Back to a course he runs very well at and up in distance today… but he clearly has to improve to measure up to WFA-G3.
7. Faatinah: Ran a bold race 2nd to Flippant who ran a top 10 rated run of the carnival so he wasn’t disgraced at all. Up to 1300m a bit of a query but I think it will suit and if a little bit of rain comes as expected, he will get the right surface to run very well from the front setting a strong tempo.
8. Durendal: Should get a spot just off the speed runners. Fairly beaten last start by Illustrious Lad. Hard to see a turn around on the form to date to win this.
9. We’ve Got This: Another fairly beaten last start by Illustrious Lad and at the weights it’s hard to justify backing here especially with form lines beaten by Faatinah as well. Has to improve.
10. Santa Ana Lane: Serial non-winner. Ran a nice race last start but this is a huge step up in class.
11. Super Cash: Scratched at the start at Caulfield when favourite. So missed a run then ran very well 1.5L 4th behind Sheidel down the straight. Up to 1300m should suit and is clearly one to consider.
Comments: I have this race down to five main chances on form in Lucky Hussler, Under The Louvre, Illustrious Lad, Faatinah and Super Cash. If the rail is hot then Faatinah is every chance running them fast all the way but is certainly questionable at the 1300m. Super Cash is also in this but has everything to prove today. Illustrious Lad has to go on with it again today but is certainly not going backwards. Lucky Hussler hasn’t proved anything the first two runs which is a huge query here. Under The Louvre showed me more than enough last start and will be well suited by the pace from the barrier.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 7, 11
Strategy: Under The Louvre to win.
Sandown Race 9 – 1800m – Mypunter.com Eclipse Stakes
1. Lidari: Ran very well first up off a slowly run 1600m at Moonee Valley. Last start too far back from a bad barrier and just a forgive run. Should run much better today from barrier 5. Rates well.
2. Turnitaround: Ignore run last start wide throughout. Horrible barrier today and will need luck to get in from the barrier. Clearly has ability but has to improve again.
3. Jacquinot Bay: Wide the last two starts in run from barrier 12 and 15. Finally draws a barrier at a track he has won at twice previously. Would love the rain to keep coming and looks well suited with no real speed runners in the race outside of Cool Chap.
5. Auvray: Beaten 12L and 12L the last two starts. Needs further.
6. Desert Jeuney: Out the back first up actually ran on very well for third in a slowly run 1800m race. Good barrier today but most likely gets far back again. Will need to jump better to be a chance.
7. Magnapal: Disappointing the past three runs really. Would really enjoy some rain to come but even so, looks outclassed on current form lines.
8. Tucanchoo: Ran a very strong 2nd last start over the 1800m at Flemington off a low tempo out front. Will be fitter today but barrier does hurt his chances.
9. Lord van Percy: Import for the Weir stable. First up at Sale beaten 8L over a similar distance on a heavy track. A win wouldn’t be a total shock but everything suggests he needs further.
10. Gabella: Very strong first two runs this prep but has been a big disappointment since. Up in class here a worry for mine.
11. Alaskan Rose: Continues to finish off races strongly without going close to a win. Stronger again but is running well and any rain will suit.
12. High Church: Weir runner that was fairly beaten first up against his normal patterns. Good barrier today to get a better run just off the speed. Big chance here.
13. Cool Chap: Continues to run well this prep and seems to be wanting further than this. Step up in class is certainly difficult today at the weights but hard to ignore his chances.
14. Plot the Course: Very disappointing last start at Flemington and didn’t finish off overly impressively from off the speed. Has to improve and jump better today.
Comments: Wide open race with several key chances in the race and as you can see by our Quaddie numbers we certainly can’t find a clear favourite. Cool Chap gets the sectionals nod from popular services today like Daily Sectionals, and I agree he is a top chance here. There are several runners at nice odds such as Jacquinot Bay, High Church, Alaskan Rose and Tucanchoo that all get in well here and are main threats to the favourite.
Confidence 70
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 8, 11, 12, 13
Strategy: Cool Chap to win. Also back Jacquinot Bay.
Sandown Race 10 – 1500m – Le Pine Funerals Summoned Stakes
1. Coronation Shallan: Three runs this prep and had every possible chance to show something and simply hasn’t. Take on.
2. Silent Sedition: Continues to run well this prep without winning. Never far off a win and up to 1500m certainly getting to the right distance. Gate and jockey combo a big issue with Williams every chance to sit 3-wide. Needs to jump well.
3. Onemorezeta: Didn’t run poorly either run this prep and hasn’t been beaten far the past few preps in top quality races. Just hasn’t had the ability to best every runner and hard to suggest she will today.
4. Vital Importance: BM-78 winner on a heavy track first up at Sale in a very impressive win. Should advance onwards and doesn’t need it very wet to find her ability. FM-LR horse back in the WA and should measure up to this grade.
5. Kimberley Star: Placed in the deep end all her career and has given the stable a good run for her money. Two runs this prep fairly beaten on both occasions. Good barrier and expect she will be ridden with a sit today.
6. Metaphorical: Good run 2nd behind Sort After at Flemington in a strongly run race in similar grade over 1700m. Back to 1500m actually looks ideal for her and a little rain won’t hurt. Good barrier and maps a treat.
7. Mossbeat: Got a win finally last start at Cranbourne from a good on speed position on a firm track. Doesn’t win often but loves this track. Big improvement needed again up in class. Not a fan of the jockey booked today considering he doesn’t ride here more than once a year.
8. Sweet Fire: Showed nothing last prep for previous stable. First up showed very little even if he she was wide when beaten in much easier grade. Has ability but struggle to suggest a place.
9. Extensible: Gone around favourite the majority of her career with 4 wins and 5 places from 9 starts certainly impressive. Out the back last start over raced and blocked for runs in her first missed place in similar grade. Back to 1500m should help and from barrier 6 she maps well enough to be every chance here if good enough.
10. Sweet Redemption: Scratched from Moonee Valley where she was a clear favourite in a race she would have won with the biased rail as the stable would have known. This shows they think better of her going here today off a strong front running win last start at Randwick. Clear leader and won’t have to do too much to get over from the barrier. Big chance.
11. Dulverton: Nice type that continues to run well without winning. The last win was in significantly easier company. Has to improve again from an awkward barrier.
12. Shillelagh: Ran a huge race last start at Flemington when almost got the win. Ignore two back run and look at three back storng win. Looks the type to be well suited today by the track. Only issue is getting so far back in the run.
13. Grey Street: Been running well all prep without winning. Step up in distance again and in class makes it hard to justify a win.
14. Loveitt: McEvoy runner but hasn’t won since last run here last prep. Two runs well backed back home in much easier well beaten.
15. Miles of Krishan: Two strong wins in a row heading into this. Query over the distance of the past few runs going 1200 to 1400 back to 1200 though and now back to 1500m. Awkward barrier and needs to get a good spot on speed.
16. Weather the Storm: CL1 winner last start. Huge step up in grade. Has ability but clearly needs to find lengths.
Comments: Tough race to finish off the card, but I really feel there are two standouts in the shape of Sweet Redemption and Silent Sedition. The price on offer for Sweet Redemption is well wrong here.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 6, 9, 10, 12, 15
Strategy: Sweet Redemption 0.75 units Each-Way @ $13/4
