Welcome to The Profits form guide for 26 March 2016 at Rosehill. Flamberge delivered on Thursday night to deliver another double figure odds Best Bet home. It was a beautiful sendoff for Moody and great for our followers taking us to just 0.02 units shy of 60 units up since December 1 last year. As you all already know, i’m in Dubai this week so don’t forget to look out for our Meydan form that will be live when you read this in the morning. Just the two clear bets on the card today and nothing at double figures that stands out enough to warrant a bet. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Rosehill Race 8 – Badawiya @ $5/$1.85 for 1.5 units Each-Way
Badawiya was huge last start and looks to get the charmed run the trip today just off the leaders backs. Will be very hard to beat and the E/W odds are a spoil when rated MUCH shorter.
Next Best Bet
Rosehill Race 6 – Risque for 1.5 units @ $3.50
Expect Believe to set a genuine tempo, but not over the top, being up to 2000m today. This will set up perfectly for Risque and Jameka who will position just off the speed, while Stay With Me and Valley Girl will need a lot of luck circling the field from out the back. Very happy to back both here.
Rosehill Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 8, 9, 15
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 11, 14, 15
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
No form available for Race 1 or 2. Wouldn’t have yielded any bets anyway.
Rosehill Race 3 – 2000m – Neville Sellwood Stakes
1. Magic Hurricane: Very average run last start in Group 3 company when well beaten by Sir John Hawkwood. Hasn’t come back the same horse. Best runs would beat these with lengths in hand.
2. It’s Somewhat: Good win coming into this in Group 2 company over 1500m. Straight up to 2000m the concern with 0 wins over this distance in the past on record and very best form 1400-1600m. Has to perform at best.
3. Messene: Close 2nd to Sir John Hawkwood leading all the way last start at course and distance. Can run well again.
5. Entirely Platinum: At his very best, he would be running very wel here, but his three runs this prep have been WELL below best.
6. Sir John Hawkwood: Hard to ignore the first up run where he got the win ovr Messene. It was a good run and he did get the gun ride also from the best spot in running. Has a strong record at these distances in the past but is certainly hard to catch.
8. Centre Pivot: One win this prep. Last three runs well below this level of class. Hard to have.
9. Ghost Protocol: Surprise winner last start in much easier grade. Record in past not hard to suggest the win last start but was very hard to have on the previous two runs this prep. Going the right way.
10. Takewing: Well beaten last start in BM-85 grade. Has to improve to place here.
11. Zarzali: Stable always had a big opinion of her and finally got a Mares grade win last prep. Two runs this prep and not found very much. Needs to improve.
Comments: A very strange market to figure out. It’s Somewhat is a clear favourite yet has never won at this distance. J Mac is on It’s Somewhat and not Magic Hurricane which says alot about MH. This really is a low grade Group 3 race when you consider the company and while it pains me to suggest it, I can’t find anything worthy of tipping over It’s Somewhat.
Confidence 55%
Strategy: It’s Somewhat to win.
Rosehill Race 4 – 1200m – TAB Star Kingdom Stakes
1. Target In Sight: Never missed a place first up. Won 4 from 6 first up. Goes well at this track. Goes well at distance. Top weight for a reason. Holds a win over Deep Field. Top weight the only issue.
2. Malaguerra: Hard to ignore the first up win at Flemington when STORMED home to win with ease. Very good win and deserves the 2nd top weight. Won 5 of last 6 for a reason and barrier 1 will see him either lead or get a charmed run just off the pace.
3. Alberto Magic: Well backed last start at Rosehill and measured up to the top level getting past Angels Beach in the final strides. Gap to 3rd.
4. Decision Time: Lost a plate in won. Too far back last start and won’t find it easy to get on speed today from the barrier.
5. Angels Beach: Every chance last start led kicked away but got run down late. Up to 1200m not an advantage either. Much more competition here also. Has to improve even at weights.
6. Bachman: Blocked for runs in the straight when came home well for 3rd. Can improve on that run today. Will be out the back but will come home strongly.
7. Barbed: Every chance last start simply not good enough to sprint with them. Take on.
8. Coolring: Couldn’t win second up at Kembla in an easier race with top weight. Down in weights here but much harder.
9. Turbulent Jet: Two runs this prep both very poor. Take on.
10. Danish Twist: Couldn’t win a CLS5 at Kembla Grange last start as favourite. Two back run was okay but clearly outclassed here.
11. Unequivocal: Measured up to mares grade in the past but this is harder. Not the worst runner going around but will be well off the speed today.
Comments: The market has this one right with a 5 horse race in Malaguerra, Alberto Magic, Target in Sight, Angels Beach and Bachman the ones to beat. I couldn’t be on Bachman from the gate getting that far back. Target in Sight will have to be at his best fresh to beat all these with the weight. Alberto looks unders on the price giving Angels Beach 1kg today but Angels Beach won’t appreciate the extra 100m. It all comes back to Malaguerra for mine. If Shinn doesn’t lead, expect to sit off the back of Angels Beach which is a nice place to be. Wouldn’t be upset either to find Malaguerra get one off the fence.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Malaguerra to win.
Rosehill Race 5 – 2000m – Tulloch Stakes
1. Hattori Hanzo: Closer to the speed last start in a contest with much fewer runners than today. Finds an okay but awkward barrier and could get back worse than midfield. Enjoyed the strong tempo over 1500m last start but there certainly are questions over him getting the 2000m, even after considering breeding. Big test off a gut buster.
2. River Wild: Had a very nice position last start at Rosehill but just didn’t have the turn of foot required over the 2000m that we were hoping for. Clear improvement on last start required but i’m not convinced it will come this far into prep. There isn’t a load of speed in race may help his chances.
3. Soverign Nation: 3Y-GP2 winner last prep over 1600m and ran 4th to Press Statement in the Guineas after that. Three runs this prep have been just okay without flattering. Last start was a very disappointing run. Stable have a big opinion of this horse so keep an eye out.
4. Man of Choice: Had his chances but just missed last start behind Hattori Hanzo. Good barrier inside of Hattori today, expect a midfield run at best. Distance increase on previous preps is a positive move for him with a Group 1 third to Vanbrugh last prep over this distance. Goes well at Rosehill also.
5. Tatoosh: Well beaten last start behind Hattori and Man of Choice. Also well beaten over 2000m in Group 1 class last prep.. but from the back did run well over 18000 the previous runs. Obviously has to improve on what we have seen this prep to measure up.
6. Torgersen: Three runs this prep and not really been in the fight at any stage. No real excuses for mine either. First time 2000m.
7. Old North: Blocked for runs last start when just finished behind Man of Choice and Hattori last start. Expect to sit midfield at very best even from barrier 4 but most likely further back. Big step up in distance but breeding suggests will be suited. J Mac takes the ride. Win wouldn’t shock but surely has to go to another level again.
8. Balmain Boy: BM-77 winner last prep. Failed to fire last two starts in Group company and distance increase doesn’t appear to be the answer for mine in this grade.
9. Multifacets: Waller runner. 2.8L off Tarzino as a 3YO over 1600m. Took a long time to find another win but has got 2 this prep in much easier races. Surely has to improve on what we have seen to date to be considered.
10. Predator: Looks the leader on paper. Beaten by Valley Girl over 1600m as a maiden and then won over 1800m before progressing to 3-Group races where ran just okay. 2.8L off them last start over 2400m, step back to 2000m is preferred here. There isn’t any speed in this race and it wouldn’t surprise me if D Oliver takes them around at a crawl and then puts the speed on from say 800m out to try and simply out sprint them the rest of the race. River Wild may be the only competition in the race if this occurs. Price looks backable.
11. Hierarchal: Well beaten start of prep by River Wild. Back in class ran 3rd to Multifacets then back to similar grade well beaten by Self Esteem. Even went up to open class BM-85 for better weight and couldn’t get better than 6th. Barrier 1 will be midfield at best.
12. Manhattan Son: Competing in BM-65 to 3YB-72 grade. Hasn’t been winning. No thanks.
13. Schopenhauer: CL2 winner last start at Kembla Grange by 0.1L. Beaten 13L and 8.5L previous two runs in city. No.
14. Alfden: Couldn’t win a BM-55 two runs back.
15. Triantan: Take on.
16. Admiral Jello: Take on.
17. Mackintosh: Need to improve on last start but is better than half this field especially considering the lack of tempo. On speed from wide out.
Comments: I can’t see where the speed is in this race and i’m quite confident the front runners will get a very easy time out front. If everything plays out the way i’m expecting, then it’s Predator’s and River Wild’s race to lose. I’ll be on both.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back both Predator and River Wild.
Rosehill Race 6 – 2000m – Vinery Stud Stakes
2. Stay With Me: Seemed to have every chance all three runs this prep but I’d suggest last start was her very best run. Unproven over 2000m in the past, this is another step up and she will be giving some VERY good types proven at the distance lengths coming into the straight. Barrier doesn’t help.
3. Valley Girl: The unknown of the race. WFA-G1 winner over in NZ two runs back over this distance. Went around 2nd favourite last start in NZ over 2400m in 3Y-GP1 with 54.5kg and ran 0.5L off a win. Will be out the back but running home strongly.
4. Honesta: Every chance both runs this prep leading in but no good. Was going much better this time last prep when heading up to 2000m. Not sure she gets a strong 2000m personally and will be wanting to find a good spot from the wide gate.
5. Risque: Massive win first up and followed that up with a huge performance wide the trip over 1600m when claimed the final 50m from backmarkers in Palentino at Flemington. Beat Jameka that day and most important has drawn barrier 2, outside of Jameka, so you know Lane will NOT be giving up a one off the fence position if possible.
6. Ambience: Two runs to date and has been very disappointing. 2000m winner last prep at Flemington by 3.5L. Ran a solid third to Jameka as favourite next start over 2500m. Hard to have.
7. Single Gaze: Didn’t measure up to the top level as a 2YO and then as a 3YO has been running some decent races over the 1400-1600m range. Big step up in distance here, didn’t beat much last start at Kembla Grange. Has to improve.
8. Capella: This is the NZ horse that has to be taken seriously. Massive run last start when flew home to just miss in 3Y-GP1 running 4th. Good barrier today, expect a midfield to slightly further back position and for Opie to let her go at least 600m out to try and get the very best out of her. Gets the 2000m but I do get the feeling she is better over the 2400m.
9. Asinara: Every chance last start at Kembla Grange. Big improvement required to win this but iomportant to note McDonald keeps this ride over Ambience.
10. Sailing By: Every chance last start in the Palentino when very disappointing. Get the feeling we just forgive that run. First up ran nicely 2nd to Mahuta. Has ability clearly but never won on a Good track previously and only won 1 race. Also never run at distance.
11. Self Esteem: BM-85 2nd last start doesn’t bode well as a form line coming into this. Hard to have on current form from the barrier.
12. Believe: Led all the way last start at Rosehill setting a strong tempo but failed to finish it off claimed in the final strides. Big step up 1500 to 2000m and will push on from wide to set up a genuine contest.
14. Heartlings: Won nicely enough first up in much easier and failed to beat home most of the field the last two starts. Need to find another leg.
15. Happy Hannah: Two runs in a row for two wins and before that 2nd to Believe. Going through the grades but even this is a big step up. Big issue with jumping poorly and may find herself 6-7 back the rail.
16. Lonely Orphan: CL3 winner in the country the last two starts. No thanks on current form lines.
17. Peggy’s Cove: CL2 winner last start. Well beaten by Self Esteem the run before. Pass.
Comments: Expect Believe to set a genuine tempo but not over the top being up to 2000m today. This will set up perfectly for Risque and Jameka who will position just off the speed, while Stay With Me and Valley Girl will need a lot of luck circling the field from out the back. Expect Capella can position better than most expect and could be a shot at double figures.
Confidence: 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 8, 9, 15
Strategy: Risque for 1.5 units @ $3.50
Rosehill Race 7 – 2400m – The BMW
1. Our Ivanhowe: Ran well enough for 5th 1.5L off Preferment last start at Flemington over the 2000m. Really wanting the step up in distance but on last start i’m not as convinced as I was the previous start that he really is wanting anything less than 3200m. Has to prove it today.
2. Who Shot Thebarman: Very disappointing run last start at Rosehill over 2000m. Times suggest he had more than every chance there and to be beaten by a horse like Sir John Hawkwood it’s hard to suggest a return to his very best form we saw last prep with a 7L win at Sandown in WFA-G2 over this distance. Clearly finds another level over this distance and would need to be finding his best with Sydney Cup just two weeks away.
3. Almoonqith: Continuest to run home well without looking any chance of winning. One goal this prep the Sydney Cup and he is going through the runs as expected. Can run well today over the 2400m with a Group 3 win last prep over Dandino the proof.
4. Grand Marshal: Last Year’s Sydney Cup winner, his runs since have been okay but yet to win again which really is no surprise. 2400m fine but still wants further.
5. Arab Dawn: Major disappointment last start at Canberra after such a good win second up in Listed grade. Hard to back today but will improve.
6. Mongolian Khan: Sub-standard run both runs this prep. Clearly wanting this distance on previous runs but I’m not convinced at all that he is going well enough to measure up here.
7. Preferment: Strong run and win second up over 2000m which in the past has proved to be his very best distance. Up to 2400m where he has failed to fire the past few attempts. He is going well enough third up into this prep to run well.
8. Storm The Stars: Very disappointing run last start over the 2000m. Not sure what happened as I saw signs the previous run over 1600m. Up to 2400m is his distance and third up. No excuses today. Expect a better run. Waller says will be ON SPEED as needs a stronger tempo. Might have something on.
9. Rising Romance: Very nice return to form last start at Flemington when on speed and battled it out for 3rd behind Preferment. Have to improve to win here can will run well from a nice barrier.
10. Montaigne: Very strong run last start behind Tarzino and went through the line strongly. Looks to be wanting the distance today and money has come for him at the low weight. Always hard for them to bounce out from 3YO straight up into this grade, but I get the feeling he will run quite well.
Comments: I can’t see a load of speed in this race with no natural leader. Storm the Stars will roll forward as suggested by waller to make sure the tempo isn’t slow. With that in mind, i’m looking for a horse that can put in the fastest last 600m here. With that in mind, Who Shot Thebarman is the horse i’ve fallen to. The form coming in isn’t great, but Waller should have the horse primed to take the next step this prep in anticipation of a Sydney Cup next start.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 10
Strategy: Who Shot Thebarman E/W. Also a small bet on Storm the Stars at big odds.
Rosehill Race 8 – 1500m – Ascend Sales Trophies Emancipation Stakes
1. Amicus: Won first up in similar class over 1200m. Next two starts has been very disappointing and not sure what to make of the runs. May just really be wanting a bit more rain as first up run was on soft?
2. Solicit: Wide barrier but clear leader today. Absolute gut buster last start at course and distance when led at a stupid tempo and was run down late. Struck on strongly for third and the runw as much better than it looked. Will measure up and be VERY hard to get past if the rail is playing okay.
3. Pasadena Girl: Moody runner now in Hayes Stable. Didn’t run with them last start! Two back ran okay but nothing special at all. Stays at 1500m. Really hard to have this horse. Stay away.
4. Badawiya: Very strong win first up at Flemington beating a good group of horses. Last prep measured up to the top class as well. Going the right way and ideal barrier today to get a charmed run. Very hard to beat.
5. Thunder Lady: Hasn’t won since 2014. Promising horse but first up run did say alot really for mine. Needs further to find her best.
6. Casino Dancer: Nice enough type. Group 3 winner beating Puccini last prep. Best runs were 1800-2000m. First up found nothing.
7. Slightly Sweet: Nice run 8th last start behind Peeping, but hard to see a turn around in form here today on Solicit.
8. Zanbagh: Ran nicely both starts this prep, but finds herself very poorly weighted today. Can run well but place best for mine.
9. Telepathic: Waller runner with McDonald onboard. Ran a nice second to First Seal two back then last start a little disappointing from off the pace 3L off Peeping. Can improve but gives Solicit 1kg todya.
10. Lady Le Fay: Too far back last start. Goes well at these distances on past runs but has to improve on what has been shown on the track today over here.
11. Just A Blur: Just missed last start at Canberra putting in a very solid run from the back on a day when it was hard to make up ground. Always looked a good horse but this is the testing material. Barrier helps.
12. Skyline Blush: Hasn’t got within 2L of a win the past 5 runs. F&M winner but that was in a country grade race. Hard to have here on runs to date.
13. Supara: Last win was a maiden! First up run was actually decent. Has run 1.8L off Winx in the past but that was a while ago. Will press forward and looks the value of the race.
Comments: Two standouts on my ratings, but the prices tell the story for how I want to be betting. Solicit is slightly the favourite on my ratings but is under the correct odds here. Badawiya was huge last start and looks to get the charmed run the whole trip. Will be very hard to beat and the E/W odds area spoil when rated MUCH shorter. I don’t normally take 3YO’s stepping up out of grade, but this is one occurance where everything is in our favour including the price.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 13
Strategy: Badawiya @ $5/$1.85 for 1.5 units Each-Way
Rosehill Race 9 – 1500m – Hyland Colours Doncaster Prelude
2. Beaten Up: Hasn’t won since 2013 but has gone bloody close a few times. Best runs have been over further, but he went quite well over 1400m first up last prep when 4th to Royal Descent in WFA-G2. This is an easier task and Waller will have him primed for what may be one of his last Autumns being an 8YO. Trailled well and the stable like his chances.
3. Rock Sturdy: Ran very well first up just beaten by Charlie Boy. Went around favourite last start two weeks back and was horrid pulling up with breathing issues. Hard to back up again on a horse after breathing issues but did run Turn Me Loose to 0.5L last prep over 1600m. Win wouldn’t shock.
4. Moriarty: Will need the run. Hasn’t won since 2014. One win first up ever in 10 preps.
5. Amovatio: Ran very well last week when blocked for run on straightening and came home well but found two too good. Can run well again here today but barrier will make it hard to get a position anywhere but last in running.
6. Hawkspur: Working well. Never won first up ever and only placed once in the past first up. Clearly needs further.
7. Index Linked: Needs further. Never won first up and only placed once first up. Would go okay if wetter.
8. Sadler’s Lake: Being backed up due to no races next week or week after for him. Going okay at the moment but didn’t really fire last start and Amovatio looks better placed. Barrier will make it hard to find a position in running. May have to go all the way to front. Would prefer rain.
9. Havana Cooler: J Mac onboard. Last prep went through the grades and ran well but no wins. Same with previous prep. Been a while between wins. Goes well first up on previous experience but clearly very best over further than this.
10. Rudy: Very hard horse to catch matched with C Williams onboard. First up showed very little. The wetter the better for him.
11. Dances on Stars: Very strong run from the back first up when 0.5L 3rd. Should get to midfield today from barrier and looks well in at the weights. Win wouldn’t shock at all!
12. Magicool: Needs a run or two according to stable. I agree based on the horses very best runs which were over much further in the past.
13. Shoreham: Won a listed race in 2013 and nothing since. Has gone very close twice in the past over further. Not this distance.
14. Cosmic Cube: NZ import third up today. Ran very well first up and the second run rule was proven successful with a win at Canberra last start in a very smart time. Can go on with it here today and run a very good race. Could lead.
15. Snippets Land: Hard horse to catch and went very close last start at Doomben. Three runs back won in Open grade. RUns well on both track conditions and has the ability.
16. Spy Decoder: Every chance last start when 5th to Cosmic Cube. Have to take on on two runs this prep.
17. Tremec: Needs further.
18. Disclaimer: Needs runs and needs further.
Comments: Wide open race as the odds suggest. Cosmic Cube gets the nod, just, from Rock Sturdy who could bounce back and blow this field away.
Confidence: 60%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 11, 14, 15
Strategy: Back both Cosmic Cube and Rock Sturdy.
