Welcome to The Profits form guide for 19 March 2016 at Rosehill for Golden Slipper day. One of the hardest race days you will see for a while, we focus on the 10-race card up in Sydney with so many Group 1 races on offer and great bookies offers for all around. Lower unit staking than normal but still betting confidently on our best of the day. Hopefully we can land a few good bets and a juicy quaddie! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Rosehill Race 1 – All Cerise for 1.5 units to win / 2 units to place @ $5.00/$1.85
All Cerise is the form runner coming into this and most importantly the best weighted horse in the race from the perfect barrier to get a dream run. The price also is even better giving us the chance to bet Each-Way on the horse. Very confident of a result here.
Next Best Bet
Rosehill Race 4 – Criterion for 1 unit @ $5/$1.90 Each-Way
Criterion is the proven commodity in this race. The stables best horse and proven Group 1 winner over this distance and further… he continues to run brilliantly in Australia at every run within his suitable distance range. He maps perfectly today from barrier 3 and Michael Walker is back onboard today. Will be at 95-100% fitness just two weeks out from The Championships.
Best Value Bet
Rosehill Race 8 – Boss Lane for 0.5 units @ $31/$8.50 Each-Way
Never thought I would be backing this horse in a Group 1 race. Expecting this horse to start even longer than the quoted fixed odds above, simply because the horse doesn’t have a profile that invites punters to back him. Beaten 0.5L last start by the race favourite and finds himself 3kg better off against English today and better weighted against other horses out of that race. Started from Barrier 8 of 10 last start and as a result was ridden further back than best previous runs. Barrier 2 will allow him to sit midfield at worst, if not closer, and be ridden to have every possible chance with such a low weight.
Rosehill Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 14
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 7, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 9, 12, 13, 14, 17
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 19
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Rosehill Race 1 – 1900m – Nathan’s Famous Epona Stakes
1. Gust of Wind: Two runs to date this prep and both were very average in comparison to her lead its last prep. Really feel at the weights she needs this run today.
2. Heavens Above: Two runs and two strong wins this prep going through the grades. Clearly another step up again here and a little bit of questions over the distance, but that’s not a big worry for mine. The issue today for mine is the weight.
3. Adorabeel: Seemed to have every chance all three runs this prep and has not got within 2.4L of a victory. Up in distance should suit but yet to place over this distance. Has to improve.
4. Vergara: Three lead in runs and while they have been ‘okay’ she hasn’t been close to winning any of them with best finishes being 4th. Big jump in distance and she really is unproven over this. Really the testing material today.
5. All Cerise: Super run last start at Randwick behind Heavens Above and finds herself significantly better rated here. Won her four previous runs for a reason.. she is going very well this prep. I think she is more than good enough to stretch out to the 1900m today this deep into the prep as long as the speed out front isn’t crazy. Great barrier.
6. Sweet Fire: BM-78 winner this prep. Two back run was only fair at best but last start up to 1600m again she hit the line strongly suggesting she wants the extra distance. Looks a chance and maps nicely.
7. Alegria: First time up to this distance. First up ran well enough and then last start also ran nicely but no test for the two infront. Finds herself poorly weighted against All Cerise an issue. Barrier might be a disadvantage also.
8. Mary Lou: BM-77 winner first up this prep. Every chance last start well beaten by Heavens Above/All Cerise. Up in distance suitable but has to improve onwards again. Tough barrier.
9. Skyline Blush: Looking for the distance increase today off two nice runs heading into this. Another that becomes more of a chance here from a good barrier.
10. Blendwell: Average barrier again. Best runs in past were 1600m but wet track wins. Never won on Good. Distance increase suitable.
11. Piamimi: Well outclassed here based on last start run. One I’d be very happy to take on.
Comments: All Cerise is the form runner coming into this and most importantly the best weighted horse in the race from the perfect barrier to get a dream run. The price also is even better giving us the chance to bet Each-Way on the horse.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: All Cerise for 1.5 units to win / 2 units to place @ $5.00/$1.85
Rosehill Race 2 – 2400m – Irresistible Pools & Spas N E Manion Cup
1. Beyond Thankful: Maps well from barrier 4 today. Three runs this prep and yet to finish within 4 lengths of a win is a big concern. G3 winner last prep but was in much better form over the shorter distances. Up to ideal distance but I’m not convinced the horse is going well enough.
2. Auvray: 3000m Group class horse from form over in France. First up went around a big price behind Libran and wasn’t disgraced at all considering first run for 518 days. Form says it all, this is a horse crying out for 3000m… expect the 2400m to suit more today but to find very best needs another run or two and further.
3. Gallante: Team Williams import that has yet to run a place from 6 starts in Australia. Won a Group 1 on a Heavy track over in France at best… water under the bridge since then… showed nothing first up and looking for wetter track than this today.
4. Libran: Just got the win last start at Randwick with a gem of a ride from Avdulla. Clear distance to third in the race. Finds himself in another suitable race here and will get a nice trouble free run from the inside barrier. Goes well at this distance.
5. Do You Remember: South African import that won over 2000m in G1 class and placed in G1 over 2200m. First prep saw 9.5L 3rd to Who Shot Thebarman in Group 2 company over 2400m. First up found absolutely nothing over the 1800m. Hard to know what we will see but I’m not convinced we will see this horse beating every other horse home.
6. Cafe Society: The clear leader on all ratings. Failed to make an impact after being imported to Australia. Up to 2400m should suit but last few preps has been a hard watch. Today is the testing material.
7. Maurus: Had his chances last start when well beaten behind Libran. Meets better at the weights and should be suited by the distance you would think, but i can’t see the turn around on that run.
8. Another Cocktail: Five runs back since 563 days off. best result has been a third in much easier class. Last two runs not good enough to be winning this.
9. Dee I Cee: Game to third last start when 2nd to Lord Disick over the 2400m. Should handle the distance no issues and maps very well from the barrier to sit on speed. Looks a good chance in the race.
Comments: We got the cash on Libran last start and there is every chance we can repeat that with another strong showing here. Do You Remember at $10 to place looks overs considering a Group 2 placing last prep over this distance.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Libran to win. Also a small bet on Do You Remember to place.
Rosehill Race 3 – 1200m – The Sebring
1. Takedown: Maps very well today from the inside barrier 4. D Oliver onboard. Ran very well for 2nd first up in equal class over a similar distance and best runs are over 1200-1400m including a Group 3 win as a 2YO. Very best runs on dry tracks.
2. Counterattack: Scratched from the Newmarket last start and the stable were very confident of improvement and a win. Certainly does a few things wrong but overall he is a good type. Clearly pushed back in class here and isn’t poorly weighted when you consider the Group 1 third behind Japonisme. Goes well on Soft tracks.
3. Santa Ana Lane: Nice enough win first up in Group 3 company. Similar grade of race really here today. Awkward barrier will see him much further off the speed than you would like.. Has ability. Handles wet.
4. Puritan: Ignore last start when just simply too far off them for mine. Ran home well. Good win previous run. Will be out the back running on. Never seen a track worse than good. Has to step up again today.
7. Ottoman: People love to throw money away on him. I thought his effort first up was solid all things considered 2.5L off English. Up to 1200m much better suited. Heavy win on record. Has to take another step to win this but don’t discount from barrier.
8. Flippant: Nice enough run 2L off Mahuta over 1400m to end last prep. Solid wins over 1200m and just an ignore run only battle with Counterattack in the past. Has been backed.
9. Serene Majesty: Very disappointing run first up. No excuses on that run either. Obviously better than that especially off the horses group class win last prep. Has to improve here.
10. Wolf Cry: Always looked a nice type but has failed to deliver with a win at the top class. Last two runs this prep after taking his fail have been fair, but I couldn’t suggest a win off them.
11. Strindberg: 3YO winner two back at Rosehill showing huge improvement. Back to the form we expected the next start. Horrible barrier.
12. Southern Legend: Won two in a row going through the grades. Crazy expectation to jump up to this i’d suggest, but did run Hellbent to 3L in a maiden then 2.3L off Japonisme in it’s next maiden.
13. Kimberley Star: Wide barrier. Well taken care of first up. Best run to end last prep was 1600m and better were 1400m. This is just too short in this class from this barrier.
14. Egyptian Symbol: Looked an okay type all runs this prep always in the frame, but last three runs at top level found a few too good each time. Has to improve from barrier which i’d say is a disadvantage.
15. Denpurr: Finished off last prep with her best run of prep over 1400m. Tough barrier and even tougher to pull this off over 1200m.
16. Denmagic: Huge step up here. Struggle to suggest a place. Top 5 they would be overjoyed for.
17. Regatta Rebel: Coming off a maiden win. Did run 2nd to Furnaces in first prep G3 2YO company and then 3rd at Gold Coast in similar… maiden win wasn’t super.
18. In Her Time: Maiden only winner. Hard to have on form.
Comments: There are several horses in this race I could make an argument for, but it really comes down to just Counterattack, Ottoman and Flippant for mine on this track today. There is no doubt in my mind Counterattack is the best horse in the race, the issue is the horse has to reproduce a dynamite run from an awkward barrier from midfield in the race. Flippant has the mapping advantage but not the class advantage for mine. Ottoman for mine is a massive price in this race from the barrier. I really liked her first up run as a lead into this, she is going the right way, maps well and rates well.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Counterattack to win. Also back Ottoman.
Rosehill Race 4 – 2000m – Ranvet Stakes
1. Criterion: Failed over in Hong Kong when 3200m back to 2000m. Previous two runs at 2000m were a Group 1 win in the Caulfield Stakes and then a 2nd in the Cox Plate to Winx.. horse had come to end of it’s prep when arriving in Sha Tin in my opinion… just too much travelling. Had a few months off and just the one lead in run. Surely a very good type but does have to be at best.
2. Mongolian Khan: Caulfield Cup winner. Effective over this distance. First up run was average at best and is coming back from a life threatening colic attack that ruled him out of the Melbourne Cup. Have to be at his best here.
3. Dibayani: Strange disappointing horse last prep but his two runs this prep were back to the Dibayani of old. Never won at distance but was 1.5L off Winx last start and ran home well.
4. Hauraki: Every chance last start when 3rd to Winx and Dibayani in the Chipping Norton. Obviously better suited over further today with a 0.1L 2nd to Complacent last prep in the Craven.. but this is his biggest test to date.
5. The United States: Ran on gamely last start in the Blamey and was just simply out stayed over the 1600m by He or She. It’s clear that this horse is crying out for further and loves a tough tempo. Absolutely primed today to run well from out the back.
6. Weary: Would love some rain but it isn’t coming. Hard to have on current form.
7. Storm The Stars: Will take a lot of improvement from the first up run over 1600m. Has won over similar distances to this in the past but his very best is slightly further over the derby lengths in the UK. Going all the right things the stable reports and he oozes class. Bowman chose this horse over Kool Kompany.
8. Kool Kompany: He always looked a good type over in the UK but his form coming into this was just short of the top grade with placings in group class. His two runs to date have been good but needs to improve onwards again today and i’m not convinced 2000m is his best distance either.
9. Bohemian Lily: Hard horse to catch 1 win at this distance in the past. Very poor last start well beaten by Libran. Hard to see the form reversal.
Comments: Criterion & Mongolian Khan are the class runners. Dibayani is hard to ignore off the run 2nd to Winx last start but Storm the Stars is the horse I want to continue following going forward. I’m just not sure he should be $10 when Monoglian Khan is the same price… that being said Hauraki looks well unders in the market also. When all is said and done, i’ll say thank you very much and take Criterion at the odds as the play.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Criterion 1 unit @ $5/$1.90 Each-Way.
Rosehill Race 5 – 1500m – China Horse Club George Ryder Stakes
1. Turn Me Loose: Had the race run to suit last start at Caulfield when didn’t have to lead and won very well in the end. Up to 1500m no issues as we know and maps as the clear leader. Clearly has the ability to get the lead and be hard to get past.
2. Kermadec: Thought his run was nice enough first up in the Canterbury Stakes but disappointing at the same time not able to get past First Seal. I’m concerned this is a big jump 2nd up and feel he needs the run.
3. Hucklebuck: Always seems to run well but last start did way too much on speed and was just a forgive run. Personally don’t feel he is top class and good enough to win this. Will find one too good at least.
4. Happy Clapper: Best is over the 1600m in the past. G2 winner but not a G1 horse and we saw that on the last start run. Not for mine here.
5. Winx: I haven’t been overly impressed with the two runs this prep. She has done what we have expected her to do, put away two relatively easy fields at $1.60 and $1.35. This is her biggest test to date if you consider her peak last prep was the Cox Plate run over 2040, then she is far short of her best distance. Yes favourite, but this price? Keep me out.
6. First Seal: Won well enough first up and was a nice enough run on speed 2nd to Holler but no match. Has to improve onwards again to measure up here for mine. Place chance.
7. Tinto: Not good enough to be winning this for mine. Place chance at best.
8. Press Statement: Good run last start and found one too good. Can obviously improve on that run but up into open class at these weights, will find it very hard. Maps much better today obviously and will appreciate the tempo.
Comments:: Not overly excited to even attempt a play here. Would be with Turn Me Loose to lead all the way at the great E/W price on offer.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Turn Me Loose E/W
Rosehill Race 6 – 2000m – Sky Racing Rosehill Guineas
1. Tarzino: Super run last start at Flemington from out the back and rattled home just missing. Up to 2000m is ideal and any stick out of the track can only help his chances. Won’t be surprised to see them push him much further forward today from the good barrier like they did in the derby. Clearly the horse to beat. The faster they go the horse he will be to beat.
2. Le Romain: Hard to dismiss his run last start when beating press statement when out wider on the track the whole run. Clearly a top class run. Expect he will be able to take the 2000m but it would be hard to see him repeat a run as good as last start? Respect.
3. Vanbrugh: Improved last start with a nice run behind Palentino and Tarzino at big odds. Won last prep in Group 1 class over 2000m but this is a significantly harder race. Has to improve onwards again and barrier doesn’t help matters.
4. Etymology: Pocketed for too long last prep in the Derby and should have been testing Tarzino that day. Has come back absolutely horrible this prep though. Last prep ran 1.5L 3rd over 1600m to Tarzino. This prep has been 5L off the winners.. should run better today but I can’t have him today… but can’t leave out of Quaddie either!
5. Shards: Three runs this prep and all pretty much rubbish. Well beaten last prep in Derby by Tarzino but ran nicely enough 2nd to Jameka over 2000m in an only average race for mine. Has ability but J Mac chose to ride Etymology which says enough.
6. Gold Ambition: Big price last start at Randwick when running a brave third to Le Romain and Press Statement. Has to improve clearly to be a chance here and barrier doesn’t help matters.
7. River Wild: Very nice run last start at Flemington when jumped well settled and loomed as a threat but didn’t finish off as fast as the rest. May be wanting the distance but not 100% convinced of that. Less speed in this and will have every chance to lead today.
8. Montaigne: Ran nicely enough the last two runs this prep in ‘harder’ company. Shinn takes the ride today. Has ability.
9. I’m Belucci: 2nd to Vanbrugh in G1 company last prep. Three runs this prep have all been okay but clearly needs to improve on those to date.
10. Crosley Hotshot: CL2 winner and lost a BM-71 last start. No thanks for mine.
11. Hursley: Doesn’t win out of turn. Loves it wet. Flying at home but can’t see it here.
12. Spanish Stride: CL1 winner last start. Nope.
13. Oh So Splendido: NZ Import first up in AUS off a short backup. Failed to fire in the GP1 last start over there. Ran okay previously over 2100m in 3YO-LR but others preferred here. Not the top stringer.
14. Jameka: Nice enough run last start at Flemington and clearly looking for further on what we saw. 2500m win last prep suggests wants even further than this heading to the Oaks. Can run well but tough from this barrier today to get a position to be winning.
Comments: Etymology is the clear value in the race based purely on potential. River Wild is the top pick here simply based on the lack of speed in the race and the horses ability to be out the front having every possible chance based on the last start run which i feel was better than Jamekas. Tarzino clearly the horse to beat, but i have no confidence in tactics today.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 14
Strategy: River Wild E/W
Rosehill Race 7 – 1200m – Longines Golden Slipper
1. Extreme Choice: Can’t say a bad word about this superstar. Drawn a beautiful gate once again and you can expect him to sit on the speed most likely one off the rail and be very hard to hold out. Will be infront at the 200m and the horse to beat.
2. Flying Artie: Massive run last start in the Blue Diamond. Only a month into the prep is the most important part in comparison to Extreme Choice who has been going since December with a small freshen up in between. Drawn much better than the Blue Diamond today and i’d imagine they will sit midfield one off the rail and be in the finish.
3. Defcon: Looked the real deal in the lead in trials. Only 0.5L off Astern with a tough run wide no cover first up in the Silver Slipper and then a very good win in the Black Opal last start from out the back. Barrier today hurts chances but on ratings he is a chance.
4. Kiss and Make Up: Big step up last start in the Todman. Set the speed early, controlled, dropped the speed then pushed it on again which looked to suit the horse. Hard to ignore beating Capitalist and Weatherly so well. Barrier suits.
5. Astern: Horrible barrier. Will be pushing forward from the barrier but I can’t see the horse getting anywhere but stuck three wide or over doing it early to get to the front. Certainly a nice type but I’m not convinced he is good enough for this from that barrier.
6. Star Turn: Every chance at Caulfield last start and found a few too good as expected. Not good enough to win this. Place at very best and that’s a stretch.
7. Capitalist: I wouldn’t be dropping off this bloke just because of one run where he over raced, didn’t appreciate the way the race was run but still stuck on and held off Weatherly. Drawn perfectly. Good enough on previous preps runs.
8. Good Standing: Nice enough win first up in the Skyline. Clearly this is much harder. Barrier 10 is tricky but should find himself better than midfield.
9. Telperion: Looked a very good type first up this prep when won nicely. Went around favourite last start and was only fair through the line. Certainly has improvement to come on that run and a win wouldn’t be a total shock, but certainly would need to improve loads.
10. French Fern: Went around a big price last start in the Riesling coming off a nice win at Canterbury the previous start. Proven enough to be running here today. Awkward barrier from 13 but comes into this well enough off those runs. Win wouldn’t be a big surprise.
11. Scarlet Rain: Waterhouse runner from the wide barrier. Shock horror, expect her to be pushed forward to lead. Times were sound last start at Randwick and has run 3 times for 3 wins to date.
12. Calliope: Will be sitting nearer the back of the field today than most runners from the barrier. Nice enough turn of foot on the last few runs. Her very best run was in the Jimcrack in her first prep when missed the start but that didn’t matter and she won very well. Has ability.
13. Yankee Rose: Comes into this race without a run under her belt. Two runs two wins back in Octoebr/November. Hard to really tell just how much she has come on. Not a fan of a fresh run into this even off two trials.
14. Sweet Sherry: Well below par based on both runs to date. One to bet around.
15. Honesty Prevails: Nice enough run first up behind French Fern but well beaten that day. Better on wetter ground I imagine based on form to date. Good barrier and maps well.
16. Quick Feet: Two runs this prep and beaten in both. Maiden winner only before that. Has ability but struggle even from the barrier to suggest a win here off form to date.
17. Moqueen: Yet to win a race. Form to date has been ‘okay’ but not up to this grade. Top 10 you would be happy if you owned it.
Comments: There is a clear known class advantage for Extreme Choice and Flying Artie off their ratings in the Blue Diamond. Arguments can be made for quite a few runners here including Kiss and Make Up, Defcon, Astern, Capitalist, Telperion, Scarlet Rain, Good Standing and Calliope. When all is said and done, i’m sticking with Extreme Choice to get the job done from the barrier. If betting here, I’d be taking the two Blue Diamond horses against the rest here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 7, 12
Strategy: Back both Extreme Choice and Flying Artie to win.
Rosehill Race 8 – 1100m – Banjo Galaxy
2. Terravista: Even I can admit he should have won the Lightning. Set back a big issue to be coming off, but Pride wouldn’t be sending him around if he wasn’t 100% today. Perfect barrier to position off the rail today and have every chance to run them down from the back.
3. Rebel Dane: Continues to run well but never really threatens to get the win. 1.5L, 1.3L, 1L, 2L off the last four runs in WFA G1 or G2 grade. 1400m back to 1100m is sharp and I think the horses very best is 1200m, no shorter. Barrier hurts. Will run well as always.
5. Famous Seamus: WFA-G3 win two back, then very poor last start at Randwick. Impossible horse to catch. Not in this grade.
6. Ball of Muscle: Very disappointing run last start at Randwick when 2L 6th… his first missed place ever says a lot. Not going well enough for mine on that run.
7. Dothraki: Been consistent in the past going through the grades and has 700k under the belt. Group 3 winner, ran a nice 3rd in Group 2 company last prep and first up was 2L off Flamberge in the Oakleigh plate. Maps nicely from barrier but does have to improve.
8. Lord of the Sky: Terrible run first up in WFA-G2 class and was always crying out for a bit of rain. It has come and there will be the required sting out of the race here. 2nd in Tj Smith last year around this time of year coming off two terrible runs. Low weight.
9. Shiraz: Looked a very nice type going through the grades last prep. Further back than normal first up when 0.8L off them in the end. Very good run leading into this and I think he is good enough to take this out. 5 runs for 4 wins at track.
10. Bounding: Every possible chance last start and very disappointing if we are honest with that first up run. Best runs in past have been with sting out of ground. Much better weighted again today but has to improve again.
11. Lumosty: Huge disappointment first up. Much better than that run at very best, but hard to be happy to take her here with any confidence after that run.
12. Boss Lane: Ran a blinder last start in WFA-G2 grade 3rd to English. Down 6kg toay and gets 3kg on English. Best rated horse in the race and can sit further forward due to barrier today. Last win was on a soft track. 8 runs for 0 places or wins at Rosehill the big issue.
13. Fell Swoop: Hard to talk down this horse that just continues to improve. Won 9 of last 11 runs and missed 0.1L 2nd in a Group 1 last start. Maps to get a midfield position and will run well.
14. English: Down 3kg again today after a great return first up winning well from the back over 1000m. Goes well at track. Only run on wetter tracks was disappointing but should be fine here.
15. Pittsburgh Flyer: Bit of a forgotten horse after running home well in the Oakleigh plate. Ended last prep with a Group 3 mares win on heavy over 1100m on Oaks day. Has to improve onwards again but barrier 4 helps chances.
16. Griante: Ran fine first up in Oakleigh Plate but hasn’t won in a very long time and i’m not convinced he is going well enough based on first up form.
17. Malaguerra: Times don’t lie, he is the real deal. Times to come out of that Flemington win were sensational and he is so well weighted here today.
18. Miss Promiscuity: Good enough run from out the back last start 4th to Malaguerra. Has to improve but barrier gives little chance for mine.
Comments: This race isn’t simple at all, but there is a value runner available that i’m willing to take a chance on. Terravista, Shiraz, Fell Swoop, English and Malaguerra all deserve to be single figures… but Boss Lane on that last start run also deserves that spot in the betting. Boss Lane ran English to 0.5L last start and meets her 3kg better off today, from barrier 2 and is expected to sit closer to the speed than last start. I’m happy to have a e/w play on Boss Lane here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 9, 12, 13, 14, 17
Strategy: Boss Lane E/W
Rosehill Race 9 – 1200m – TAB Birthday Card Stakes
1. Cradle Me: Ran home nicely enough first up at big odds but was never really a chance on watching the race. Similar class and will be much better second up. Won 4 from 8 second up in the past and goes well at Rosehill. Will be out the back running on.
4. Bring Me The Maid: Hasn’t won since 2014 on a Heavy track. Best run since 0.1L 2nd on a Heavy track. Not gone close since. Needs it wetter for mine.
5. Brook Road: Frustrating horse to back, just continues to run well without winning. Clearly has the ability to win this based on previous runs. Going the right way this prep i’d suggest but maps to get far back again.
6. Two Blue: Loves to run second with 6 of her last 8 runs seconds with just the one win in the mix. Last run 2nd was to Peeing in Group 2 filly/mares. Best runs later into preps.
7. Savoureux: Nice enough win last start at Randwick beating home Private Secretary. Has to improve again here from a very poor barrier. Has ability.
8. Sultry Feeling: Good win first up over Peeping who has gone on to win the Coolmore! Hard to ignore that as a form line. Clearly going the right way. Awkwardly mapped.
9. Vezalay: Just ignore the run last start in the Oakleigh plate and rate on previous preps. Word is the horse is training the house down.
10. Perignon: Just missed end of last prep 2nd to Speak Fondly in Group 1 class. First up won a Group 2.. hard to ignore, going the right way again. Good barrier.
12. Flashing Speed: Gone through the grades and has every possible chance last start but found a few too good. This looks harder… can run well. Barrier sucks.
13. Lake Geneva: Two runs this prep and both disappointing runs with no excuses. Take on.
14. Onemorezeta: Looked to be going the right way last prep but three runs this prep just not good enough.
16. Something Secret: Happy to be around in this grade.
17. Lucky Can Be: Hard to see the extra required improvement on last start. Pass.
18. Tender: FMB-76 up until this. Not for mine first up.
19. Look to the Stars: Group 2 winner at Doomben and 3rd to Press Statement in a Group 1 over 1600m. Last prep was very plain. Not sure what to make of her here? Can win on best.
Comments: Another wide open race. Sultry Feeling top pick just from Perignon.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 19
Strategy: Sultry Feeling to win.
Rosehill Race 10 – 1350m – Newcastle Newmarket Handicap
2. River Lad: Group 1 winner at Eagle Farm in 2014. Hasn’t won since or been within 2.3L of a win actually. Going okay but hard to suggest a clear win.
3. Ecuador: No mug this bloke… Group 2 2nd last prep first up over similar distance and 2nd to Winx over 1600m in Group 1 class. First up run was very average but has a much better record 2nd up and loves any rain that comes.
4. Amovatio: Has a good turn of foot on him so always appreciates a tempo that isn’t overly strong. First up at Canberra was too far back but was just plain to the line. Has to improve.
5. Sadler’s Lake: First up today. Last prep won first up over 1400m then won a Group 3 2nd up over 1400m. Respect his ability but his best in the past has been over 2000m.
6. Bull Point: Hard horse to catch but my god he got a win last start leading all the way at Randwick. You can count that out from happening today. Has to improve.
7. Aomen: Always seems to run well but never close to a win. Group placed quite a few runs and within 1.5L of wins. First up again today.
9. Lunar Rise: Ran a very bold race last start at Canberra but found a few too good. Hard to suggest a win against this lot but has ability to run well.
10. Artistry: Nice enough run 4th first up and will appreciate the step up. Looked a very progressive type last prep and won some good races. Looks to have gone on with it. Like her!
11. Religify: Nice enough type in the BM grades but not sure he makes the step up here to beat these even off the last start run.
12. Queen of Kariba: Every chance all runs this prep but failed to place. Struggle to suggest a win, could place.
14. Nancy: Going through the grades. First up run was nice at Randwick in a very fast time. Has ability and maps well.
Comments: Artistry the horse for me in this race. Several winning chances.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Artistry E/W
