Welcome to The Profits form guide for The Champions Day 2 on 9 April 2016 at Randwick as well as races from Sandown and Bendigo. Championships Day 1 just didn’t go to plan for us with our best bets just not getting the job done after a very strong run the past four months heading into the premium meetings. Keen to bounce back today and we have done the hard yards with form at Sandown as well as Randwick today. Looking forward to a very good day of racing. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bets
Sandown Race 3 – French Emotion for 3.5 units @ $2.20
Randwick Race 5 – Back Japonisme for 2.3 units @ $3.10 to win. Also back Hellbent for 0.70 units @ $10.50 to win
Next Best Bets
Randwick Race 8 – Miss Rose De Lago for 0.9 units @ $15.50. Risque for 1.1 units @ $11
Sandown Race 7 – Miss Seton Sands for 1.5 units @ $6.50/$2.25 Each-Way
Best Value Bets
Bendigo Race 5 – Miller Street for 0.5 units @ $13/$3.40 Each-Way
Randwick Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 9, 16
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 10, 12
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 6, 11, 15
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Randwick Race 1 – 1600m – TRE Hotels Fernhill Handicap
1. Prized Icon: Been running well enough this prep without winning. Convincing run on Heavy first up suggests will get any type of ground. Went very well last start at Rosehill in a 150k race! Maps nicely.
2. Reinforced: Got his maiden two back at Wyong beating a very nice type in Chimboraa that day. Too far off the speed last start though at Rosehill. Maps much better. Should handle going.
3. Hutcho: Every chance last start at Rosehill and didn’t do much late. Didn’t show too much for mine either in the Black Opal compared to a few others. Has to improve on this ground. Smaller field should help.
4. Crown Him: Been running well and looks to be wanting the extra distance today. May just be a little too inexperienced coming here and expect to find one too good for mine.
5. Obscura: Wide barrier and maps out the back. Obviously closed off last start very well from way too far back from the barrier 17.. won’t have to make up as much ground today. Obviously has ability and will be backed. Unknown on ground.
6. Bring Me the Bling: Hasn’t measured up in maidens. Will be backed due to being from this stable, but even with jump in distance I couldn’t have her.
7. Lasqueti Spirit: Inside barrier will make things tricky. Beaten a long way two runs back and then last start a similar result.
8. Gravitate: Trialed well coming into the maiden last start and ran home well but wasn’t a great run. Has to clearly improve on what we have seen to date.
Comments: The market certainly has this one right for mine with Prized Icon and Reinforced the proven types while Obscura is the potential. Prized Icon is proven on all types of ground and was a very good run last start.. not to mention will get a spot on the speed which shouldn’t be run at an overly fast clip.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Prized Icon to win.
Randwick Race 2 – 1400m – McGrath Estate Agents South Pacific Classic
1. Santa Ana Lane: Nice trial heading into this off a disappointing 9th last start. Drawn better today. Handles all conditions. Has been backed.
2. Puritan: Very strong win first up this prep. Hasn’t gone close next two starts but obviously has ability. Should get the distance no issues and has won on heavy previously so handles all conditions.
3. Kimberley Star: Nice enough second in the Gosford Guineas from out the back. Extra distance should suit today and handles all track conditions (never won unless it’s been wet) so looks suited. Much better barrier should see her push midfield.
4. Look to the Stars: Very poor run first up. Very poor last prep. Hard to see.
5. Suspense: Three runs for three wins this prep going through the BM grades in open age level. Not out of question to make the extra improvement again today for mine either. Maps very well from barrier 3 to sit just off the pace.
6. Serene Majesty: Every possible chance two runs in this prep and didn’t exactly find a lot in either run. Has to improve significantly. Career best more than good enough but hasn’t shown it this prep.
7. King’s Troop: Hasn’t won in a fair while. Hasn’t placed in 4 runs this prep and last two runs been poor. Not for me.
8. Handfast: Had pretty much every chance last start coming off two wins and found 3 too good on the wetter track. Not convinced he fully got the soft even though he has run okay on it in the past in trial. Back to 1400m today… has to improve on what we have seen so far to beat all these.
9. Tulsa: Very disappointing run in the Guineas. Was an absolute blinder behind Tivaci and Planetino in the CS Hayes and back to 1400m will suit. Never run on a wet track a big concern but is bred to get it.
10. Chandana: Won a trial on a Soft track heading into this. Last start 1800m Soft 7 winner. Was a very good win as well in a BM-71. Much harder here but obviously up to it on what we have seen to date. Issue for mine is 1800m back to 1400m and a very terrible barrier.
11. Craiglea Wandoo: Down from QLD. Well beaten last start on soft track. Has won on soft in the past. Not good enough.
12. Mawahibb: Looked a good type last prep but found a few too good in Keen Array and Bassett etc. Three runs this prep in BM-70 grade and yet to win. Went close but still beaten last start at Sandown.
13. Dark Steel: CL1 winner last start and wasn’t a massive win either. Hard to suggest he is up to this grade today.
14. Sonic Swish: Made up enough ground late last start behind a decent horse in Federal. Back to 3YO grade. Measured up with a 2nd on soft ground at Randwick in the past.
15. Dixie Chick: Bm-67 winner in 3yF last start… which isn’t too hard to do. Must find a lot of improvement for this.
16. Dane Thunder: Heavy winner last prep. Did run well last start at Sandown but this is a lot harder. Tough ask.
17. Invincible Knight: A reasonable 4th in the Bendigo Guineas. Has ability, not without chances here.
18. Not a Cherry: Hard to see the win or a place on previous form.
Comments: Tough race to get a winner. Kimberley Star maps perfectly and has the form lines to back it all up.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Kimberley Star E/W
Randwick Race 3 – 1400m- The Provincial Championships Final
I don’t know these horses and am happy to skip the race.
Randwick Race 4 – 1200m – IG Markets Percy Sykes Stakes
1. Thyme for Roses: Hard to dismiss any of that strong win last start at Flemington down the straight. Obviously a different task today but stays in similar grade. Did win on a soft track in her maiden victory. Very good type.
2. Missrock: Coming out of a yard that is simply very hard to catch.. Disappointed at Sandown ending last prep. The first win at Caulfield was eye-catching and hard to argue with as being a very good run… but I’m not ever convinced to take such form into a race like this today. Has to prove everything and i’d prefer a horse with runs on the board this prep.
3. Twist Tops: Continues to run very well this prep with four runs all in the top 4 in high grade races. Went well on the wetter tracks and won a good 1200m race at course and distance on a soft three runs back. Going well enough at weights and maps well.
4. So Serene: Looked a good type when 2nd to Extreme Choice from out the front first up but has failed to go on with it off the speed the next two starts. Not convinced she is the best here.
5. Soviet Secret: Every chance last start at Flemington and ran into Thyme For Roses. Previous start twist Tops got her. Needs to improve past a few here.
6. Emphatically: Looked a good type on previous runs but never went to the next level after each start. Hard to see a reversal on Thyme For Roses here from the barrier.
7. Najmaat: Unlucky first run on track when 4th over 1000m blocked for runs. First up this prep won a nice race at Caulfield from just off the speed. Times are sound and looks a very nice type. Maps perfectly from barrier 3. Hard to beat.
8. Spright: Does a lot wrong in her races. Yet to win a race but going okay in the top level races. Others preferred.. too green.
9. Prompt Response: Frustrating horse. Close 2nd to Concealer first up and then first up this prep every chance and not good enough at Rosehill. A month between runs should see improvement. Has ability.
10. Geneteau: Surprised a few with a nice run 3rd (well beaten) last week. Hard to see the required improvement to win this.
11. Gretna: Blocked for runs last start at Caulfield behind Najmaat. Not sure just how close she would have gone but obviously just never had any chance getting to the line. Probably beats them all on replay watching. Good barrier again today.. no idea how will handle the ground.
12. Palomino: Got to have a Godolphin runner in the race. Hasn’t won a race to date. Every chance last two starts also. Take on.
Comments: Quite an interesting market this one. Prompt Response looks well under the correct odds here for mine off what we know. Thyme for Roses is the clear top pick today while Gretna will be very hard to hold out also if given a better ride than last start.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Thyme for Roses to win.
Randwick Race 5 – 1200m – Arrowfield 3YO Sprint
1. Japonisme: You just can’t knock the toughness of this bloke. Group 1 winner in 3YO grade already in the past. 0.2L off Chautauqua first up in WFA-G1. Forgive run two back in Group 1 and then a close 3rd 0.2L off Flamberge in WFA-G1 last start. Loves any track condition. Maps perfectly to sit midfield and come home with a BANG.
2. Kinglike: How good is he? I’m not convinced he is the top shelf stuff even after the first up run. Maps to get a sit midfield today and show us what he has to offer late.
3. Counterattack: Had his chance both runs this prep and has been relatively disappointing for mine. Might try push forward today. Goes well on soft.
4. Takedown: Two runs this prep have been better than last prep but staying at 1200m has to improve onwards again to measure up in this grade.
6. Spill the Beans: Has been backed today. Beat Le Romain first up who then went onto win a Group 1. Started $5 against Press Statement next start, led but got run over… not convinced the horse got the 1400m? Back to 1200m. Should be on speed from barrier but no easy lead here.
7. Hellbent: This bloke is the real deal. His win last start at Flemington was arrogant. Just how good is he is the real question. Not convinced his very best is to be seen on a soft track but he is good.
8. Stellar Collision: Well backed last start at MV and got the cash. This is MUCH harder today though up in class again and barrier doesn’t help. Has to improve.
9. Bassett: Old mate has had every possible chance this prep. He had to win first up and threw in the towel. Next start was ridden poorly and never a chance. I’m not convinced he will grind out the 1200m on speed as well as others.
11. Ghisoni: Very well backed over 1400m two runs back and won well over Single Gaze in similar class. Went around in FM-Gp1 with 50kg over 1500m but well beaten. Step back to 1200m very questionable for mine here. Barrier won’t help. I’m taking her on.
12. Petits Filous: She is a good type, we all know it, but she won’t get it all her own way today and that will be her undoing if that’s to occur. Wide barrier a serious issue. This will be run at a breakneck speed. Will handle the going, but has to be very good. I wasn’t convinced by her final 100m last start.
13. Lake Geneva: Not the same horse this prep. Can’t see her measuring up on three runs to date. Never won on soft/heavy from 5 starts.
14. Egyptian Symbol: They continue to back her as if she is a superstar and she continues to get beat… started $3-$6.50 the last 6 defeats. She was a good run last week but was never close to the winner at the end. This looks harder!
15. Speith: He was good in his first prep! A win actually wouldn’t be a total shock if he has gone on with it. Stupid price really based on potential and improvement compared to a few others that could improve and still not go close.
Comments: Very keen to bet here into the top two form horses for mine in Japonisme and Hellbent. We have the proven horse in Japonisme who maps a dream off the hot tempo while we have Hellbent who also maps to get a run just off the speed and to produce late – sectionals in the past show us Hellbent has the required turn of foot to win this. Back both.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Back Japonisme for 2.3 units @ $3.10 to win. Also back Hellbent for 0.70 units @ $10.50 to win.
Randwick Race 6 – 2400m – James Boag’s Premium Australian Oaks
1. Jameka: Hard to question any of her runs this prep in terms of getting, staying and running out this prep so well. Very strong 2nd last week to Tavago beating home Tarzino. Wide barrier only real issue to get a nice spot in running but will push forward and get one. Loves it wet.
2. Single Gaze: Huge improver this prep and has won two group races in a row including the Group 1 last start. Have to suspect she will get the distance with little trouble. No issues on soft ground. Maps nicely enough from the awkward barrier.
3. Honesta: Been crying out for the trip for mine. Last start the writing was on the wall flashing home well from too far back. Will sit slightly closer here today and is going more than well enough.
4. Sacred Eye: Lead in last week was very disappointing. While you might think that will bring her on, I’m of the opposition opinion and I’ll take her on especially with the ground still being soft.
5. Ambience: Very disappointing all three runs this prep. Last prep obviously better than what we have seen to date. Testing material. Not convinced.
6. Valley Girl: On speed first run in Australia over the 2000m and was a good run. Personally feel and know she is better ridden quieter than that. Expect her to get further back today and be hitting the line strongly.
7. Sofia Rosa: Group 1 form lines from over in NZ. Just missed as a short priced favourite last start over the 2400m. Spaced between runs.. last start on Soft won a Group 2. Awkward barrier for mapping.
8. Diamond Made: Huge price winning last week over the 2000m. Not convinced that was the classiest field you will ever see or that this horse is a star. Will improve up in distance again but not for mine.
9. Alaskan Rose: She got the 2000m but you can’t convince me she will stay a stronger 2400m this week on the soft. Was a good run.
10. Capella: Very disappointing draw. Flew home last start and put the writing on the wall for the run today. Will need to be ridden 3-wide the trip for mine to gain the appropriate position, unless if they are getting off the rail all day and there is a chance of inside runs.
11. Chabaud: Massive step up here. Obviously proved to be a decent type in Tasmania but this is a huge step compared to that. I’ll take her on.
12. Self Esteem: Ran well enough from on speed last start but found a few too good and based on that run, I’m struggling to suggest a turn around.
13. Happy Hannah: Well fancied in the betting at Rosehill last start in Group 1 class. Stormed home and was a very eye-catching run. Needs to jump better today. Class.
14. Believe: Horrible run. Had to over-work to lead and was gone a long way out. Has to improve.
15. Zasorceress: Not the worst run at Randwick 3rd to Diamond Made. Did have every chance for mine on speed though.
16. Aurora’s Star: Struggle to suggest a place.
Comments: This race is going to be an absolute ripper. Jameka, Single Gaze, Honesta, Valley Girl, Sofia Rosa, Capella and Happy Hannah all have to be considered top live chances here and there isn’t much to split them on form or in betting. Where does the speed come from in this race? Believe is going through the distances and I struggle to suggest Believe will be running them along at a break neck tempo. I get the feeling Self Esteem may be sent out to get some more speed into the race? All i know is the NZ runners are wanting a strong staying race and i’m not convinced we are getting that here. Jameka will be in the right spot no matter what occurs while Single Gaze will also be and is overs again.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Jameka to win. Also back Single Gaze.
Randwick Race 7 – 3200m – Schweppes Sydney Cup
1. Who Shot Thebarman: His run last start behind Preferment was sensational in WFA-G1 class. The perfect lead in for this today. Remember back to his WFA-G2 win at Sandown last prep by 7 lengths.. his very best is super. Weight won’t stop him coming home here.
2. Almoonqith: Clearly a class runner here, but big questions over his ability to handle any softness in the track. Can win, but i’m betting around and it pains me as I think he goes very close on a Good 3.
3. Grand Marshal: What else needs to be said about him? Won this race last prep with a low weight nosing out Barman. Any rain is a positive and his going well enough. Gets 2kg on barman also and it’s hard to argue against the fact that this horse is best over 3000m+.
4. Libran: Has gone through the grades this prep going up in distance. Unproven over this distance and hasn’t had to beat much the last three races. I think he is horrible unders today and I’m very keen to take him on.
5. Auvray: They continue to back him and he continues to run terrible. Both his last two starts have NOT convinced me. Yes, his very best in the past has been 3000m+ but that was 2014 and I’m not convinced he is going well enough to consider to place here.
6. Destiny’s Kiss: Always game to the line, very disappointing run last start at Randwick up in class again. Have to improve but will at least get the distance.
7. Gallante: Ran well enough as a lead into this last start. Finds himself very well weighted especially against Libran and the owner knows what he is doing. Any more rain would help.
8. Cafe Society: Continues to run well without winning this prep. Last start was his best run to date in Australia and he is certainly turning it all around. Will obviously need to improve again, but he will have an uncontested lead and a low weight.
9. Like a Carousel: This horse needs this distance, but he is going like a broken horse. No thanks.
10. Dee I Cee: Beaten very very far last start. Not for mine.
11. Bayanova: 3000m winner last start at Sandown. Was a good win. Low weight but would I rather her or Gallante? I know my choice.
Comments: Not going against Who Shot Thebarman. Deserves the weight. Gallante the value in the race off the weight on proven form.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Strategy: Back Who Shot Thebarman and also Gallante.
Randwick Race 8 – 1600m – The Coolmore Legacy Stakes
1. Suavito: Got the win first up over 1400m and then found a few too good in a race that hasn’t exactly figured out form wise. Last start well beaten over 2000m. Back to 1600m. Obviously a good horse but doesn’t win out of turn. Big test.
3. Azkadellia: Ran the race of her life last start 2L 3rd to Winx in Group 1 over the 1600m. They went well clear of the rest of the field. She ran on from last remember also. Huge run. Gut buster is the BIG issue when you consider what she did. Never runs a bad race having been top three all but 1 run ever. Classy.
4. Miss Rose de Lago: Suited by the track last start at Moonee Valley, was allowed to just roll out the front and won with class. Questions over how classy those behind actually were that day with Noble Protector not back to her best. Will lead, will set a very solid tempo on speed and will be very hard to run down. Ground may be an issue but I think it will be dry enough by then.
5. Noble Protector: Had her chances second up to put the writing on the wall but I’m not convinced she did. Yes, the run was quite good and she got within 2.8L from back in the run, but this is her hardest task yet especially after missing a run by jumping poorly.
6. Zanbagh: Surprise winner over 1500m last start by a horse that looked gone as a 4YO. Come back to best form thanks to quality training. Win wouldn’t totally shock but needs to improve for mine.
7. Casino Dancer: Group 3 winner last prep, hasn’t shown anything this prep. Take on.
8. Artistry: Gun win last start at Rosehill in Group 3 class. Massive improvement required to win this but up to preferred distance. Barrier issue.
9. Vergara: Will be on speed coming off a nice run 4th to Winx. Has to improve for mine personally and won’t get it easy.
10. Coronation Shallan: You got to be kidding me. No chance I could back her here. Could run a place but not a winner here for mine.
11. Slightly Sweet: Shes going well enough based on last two runs but not top quality. Take on from barrier.
12. Heavens Above: Top 3 all runs this prep going through the grades. Last start just beaten by Vergara over 1900m. Not convinced 1600m is her very best distance. Maps well though.
13. Lady Le Fay: Out the back and finished off strongly last start at Rosehill. Can improve but not convinced she can win.
14. Badawiya: Well backed last start and found a few too good on the day. Has to improve onwards again to beat these on last start run. Barrier is tough.
15. Pasadena Girl: She wasn’t terrible last start but no way I could be on after the last few runs.
16. Risque: Huge win first up and then even more game second up when hit the lead and was claimed by the swoopers over the final 50m at Flemington. Loves any ground and 2000m back to 1600m should have her tidy today.
Comments: Azkadellia is under the odds, as always based on her pattern. Won’t get as much luck today as last start. Risque and Miss Rose De Lago map the best here at big odds and I’m happy to take them both here.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 9, 16
Strategy: Back Miss Rose De Lago for 0.9 units @ $15.50. Also back Risque for 1.1 unit @ $11.
Randwick Race 9 – 2000m – Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes
1. Criterion: Going through the paces this prep and showed me more than enough last start to suggest a little bit of a rain would make a load of difference. Winx out means he will have every possible today on his very last run. I was keen at the $10s after Winx was out and he has been backed since.
2. Preferment: Hard to talk down to his achievements this prep with two WFA-G1 wins over 2000m and 2400m. Group 1 winner last prep also. Last win on Soft was a WFA-G2 win over 2000m. Has the ability and has class. Maps perfectly from barrier. Hard to ignore his chances.
3. Mongolian Khan: Shocking ride last start. Found nothing all three runs this prep. Not the same since his issues last prep.
5. The United States: Going the right way this prep and got the win bursting through the back storming home in WFA-G1… but this is certainly harder today. Has ability and can win.
6. Happy Trails: Old mate Roy. I think his last start run was quite good and was a bit of return to form. He really needs no rain and at most a soft 5 track to run well.
7. It’s Somewhat: Got the win last start on class, not on staying ability over the 2000m. Well out of class for mine.
8. Dibayani: Ran up to expectations last start for mine. Best over lesser distances in past. Never won at distance. Hasn’t won since 2013. .
9. Happy Clapper: 50.5kg behind Winx last start and just hit the line strongly. Well up in class and grade here again up in distance. Hard to see it at WFA.
10. Hauraki: Ran well enough coming into this all three runs. Barrier disappointing but should still run very well. Need to go to next gear to beat these.
11. Leebaz: Group 3 winner over some very average runners last start. Hard to have off what we know about it.
12. Lucia Valentina: Money came for her when the rain came, but hasn’t been much since then rain wise. Nice enough run first up obviously has to improve onwards for this… can run very well. Win wouldn’t exactly shock.
13. Rising Romance: Continues to run well this prep but both runs behind Preferment had every possible chance. Needs luck.
14. Fenway: Every chance all runs this prep and found a few too good. Will occur again.
15. Awesome Rock: Improved significantly this prep and looks up to the task. Won’t have it as easy today unlike last start when allowed to sit on speed and control it.
16. Weary: Well outclassed here. Take on.
Comments: Wide open race. Lucia Valentina, Preferment, The United States, Hauraki and Criterion are all very backable today while Happy Trails is a stupid price.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 10, 12
Strategy: Preferment E/W
Randwick Race 10 – 1200m – Sensis Sapphire Stakes
1. Bounding: Very disappointing both runs this prep in Group 1 class. Well up in weights today but gets 2.5kg on Griante dropping back to FM-GP2. Has to improve.
2. Griante: Huge win last start in Group 1 company from a more on speed position (finally – but didn’t tell us they would). It was a day when you had to be in that lane also which is worth remembering.. Maps to sit midfield.
3. Bring Me The Maid: Hasn’t won in a long time. Would prefer a lot more rain. Not going well enough.
4. Sultry Feeling: Two runs this prep for two group wins in a row. Up in class again but not going for the top level, very well placed as always. Wide barrier makes it tough to get a good spot but Bowman will find one. Has to be considered.
5. Peace Force: Very best in the past good enough to beat Solicit in a Group 3 race on soft. First up here and terrible barrier.
6. Cradle Me: Old mate just continues to run well and run well. Flashed home last start and just missed. Even better back on the soft. Writing on the wall, in for a huge run today.
7. I’ve Got the Looks: Very well backed two back when beaten 1L by first seal, then last start blocked for runs beaten 2L. Has to continue improving here. Not sure the right lead in from this barrier.
8. Brook Road: Every possible chance the past five runs pretty much and continues to run well without winning. Others preferred #cat.
9. Two Blue: Never runs a bad race. Every possible last start at Rosehill when well beaten by Sultry Feeling first up. Will improve but others preferred.
10. Vezalay: Perfect sit during the run second up and found little to impress me. Soft track query only second run on it ever. Top ability still a bit short of this for mine.
11. Private Secretary: Another that has developed a tendency to hit the line but not win. Hardest run this prep here.
12. Berry Delicious: Never won first up. Last prep best over 1400m not 1200m. Bad barrier.
13. Secret Agenda: Nice run first up but had every possible chance. Two runs since very poor. Soft track not exactly ideal on last start but did handle it last prep. Just not going well enough for mine.
14. Ottoman: Decent enough runs coming into this but others preferred on what we know.
15. No More Tears: Group winner over in New Zealand. Have to consider her a top chance in this race from the barrier. Good horse.
16. Press Report: Best runs in the past still a bit off this.. Take on.
17. Lucky Can Be: Unlucky not to be getting an instant start here. Very good run last start. Can win.
18. Hieroglyphics: One to take on. Not for me.
Comments: Happy to finish off with a bet on Cradle Me. Looks suited. No More Tears the value if gets a run.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 6, 11, 15
Strategy: Cradle Me to win. Smaller bet No More Tears.
Bendigo Race 5 – 1300m – Jenharwill Handicap
1. Reine Happy: Led all the way at Bendigo end of last prep to win his maiden. Time was average at best. Back to scene of the crime. Has been backed and gets a claim. Expect they won’t give him an easy time out front today. First up run was fair.
2. Miller Street: 1000m race first up just too sharp for him.. loomed and then stopped after being blocked for runs. Had a few things to explain it.. forgive the run. Much better suited at 1300m and has been training very well coming into this.
3. Stars In The Sky: Win in this grade at start of prep but since then failed to fire in the last five races being 3L or further off a win. Has to improve on what we have seen to date.
4. Shark Magic: In the past was racing over much further… back to 1300m first up… led surprised and won.. wasn’t the greatest win and has to improve but these types can go from maidens to R-58 and measure up.
5. Air Hostess: Very poor first up. Up in distance should suit… but others preferred on form.
6. Attenti Alla Bella: Did a bit wrong last start but couldn’t win a BM-52 grade race. Did run well wo back at Colac for a 4th in R-58. Not the worst here and has come ability even at the weights.
7. Rayhan: Up to 1400m last start with Gundog onboard got the win over an okay field at Werribee. Up in weight and change of jockey… back to 1300m. Expect her to sit midfield. First win in about 20+ runs last start. Much harder but has claims.
9. Cheap Tycoon: Couldn’t win a BM-45 last start and previous runs in R-58 have been well off a win.
11. Luperini: Hasn’t been within 4L of a victory the past 8 runs. Hard to suggest.
Comments: His 2nd up record is pretty clear. He has won, he has had a poor run and he has run a close 2nd when he bled both nostrils yet still managed 2nd (he was going to win that day over this distance in this grade). He really did need the run first up and his mind is on the job for this. Very happy to tip you into him at the odds on offer.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Miller Street for 0.5 units @ $13/$3.40 Each-Way
Sandown Race 3 – 1300m – Ladbrokes Bet Better Handicap
1. Enquare: Nothing wrong with the run first up in mares grade behind Miss Promiscuity. Claimer onboard due to the weight today. Maps on speed but most likely hands up lead to She’s Miss Devine. Will enjoy this track.
2. Zanteca: Should have ran in a Melbourne Cup but lost a protest badly. First run back since then and safe to say this is far below her best distances.
3. Minnie Downs: Normally goes okay first up. Last win was over 1600m in harder company than this. Will be coming home late. Better over courses with a shorter straight though for mine.
4. Nadeem Lass: Doesn’t win out of turn.. been 12 runs since a win.. four runs this prep best run was 3rd beaten 3L. Back in class but struggle to suggest her.
5. Every Faith: Goes better second up. Best runs have been over further than this and didn’t show me enough first up.
6. French Emotion: I have a massive opinion of her and you know it. We have been on the past three runs and got the money each start. Goes on any ground and she is 3 runs for 3 wins at this track. Got lucky last start at MV getting a run late but she had 3-4 lengths on them if got clear sooner with top weight. Very well weighted here. Barrier the only issue. 1300m is her ideal distance this prep for mine. Group horse.
7. She’s Miss Devine: Ran some nice races as a 3YO up in Queensland. First up run this prep in BM-78 was blocked for runs but not impressive enough for me to suggest a win here. Need to see the run.
8. Boundary: Been going quite well this prep including a Group 3 2nd to I Love It down in tassy. FMB_84 2nd two runs back. Last start well beaten. Very off and on. Has ability.
9. Telopea: Every chance last start and not good enough. Distance increase needed but no chance I can be on based on first up run.
12. Inishowen: So many quirks this horse. Overraced and never really a chance to finish last prep. Goes okay first up. Best over further.
13. Kansas Sunflower: Doesn’t win out of turn. First up found very little. Best over 1600m.
Comments: All roads lead to French Emotion. Convinced this is a Group horse and i’ll back her in again today.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: French Emotion for 3.5 units @ $2.20.
Sandown Race 7 – 1000m – Ladbrokes Infohub Handicap
2. Hard Romp: Will sit just off the speed today first up after 8 months off the track. Generally goes well first up but this is his level of race and I do question why so long off if he will need the run.
3. Sheidel: Obviously a good run first up at Moonee Valley when 3rd because Beau Rada. Will appreciate the 1000m, but will need to jump better today from this barrier to be closer to the speed as wanted. Won’t have an easy time.
5. Iconic: Hasn’t won since 2014. Writing on the wall on last two runs.. win wouldn’t be a total shock.
6. Beau Rada: Very nice win last start at MV running his best race in a very long time. No reason why from a good barrier again today that he can’t repeat the effort. Respect.
7. Miss Seton Sands: Massive win first run in Australia against her pattern. Barrier 6 should see them ride her closer to speed i’d imagine, or if they are running on late in the day, they know that she can go back and finish off. Type of horse you would love to own and train being able to go forward or back and win from anywhere. Group 1 2nd this prep over 1200m hard to forget. Massive price.
8. Lonrockstar: Had his chances last start in Adelaide and Charles In Charge beat him! Have to improve here to be running a top 3 run for mine.
9. Bullpit: Running very well this prep. Will be well suited to the long straight here. Good barrier to get a nice run.
10. General Jackson: Not good enough.
11. Zupacharged: Hasn’t lived up to the hype. Take on.
12. African Pulse: No thanks.
15. Tansy: Very best is in lesser grades. Not on this form.
16. Ruettiger: Two wins in a row in much easier races. Have to find a length or two to measure up.
17. Fab Fevola: Old mate goes around again today. Up to 1000m and a longer straight… be interesting to see how he handles Sandown. Will be setting a solid clip!
Comments: This looks to be a race with a very solid tempo being set out the front by Fabby and Bullpit. Miss Seton Sands is the best rated and best suited horse here. Will get the perfect run and be very hard to hold out. Huge price on offer.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Miss Seton Sands for 1.5 units @ $6.50/$2.25
