Welcome to The Profits form guide for 16 April 2016 at Randwick and Caulfield. The last two weeks have produced very disappointing results at a critical time of the year when we expect better. We look towards both Caulfield and Randwick today previewing the key races of the day that have produced some fairly confident bets at decent odds throughout the day. Landing two of the 5 bets will have us ahead, so let’s aim for at least 3 of them! Looking forward to a very good day of racing. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bets
Randwick Race 5 – Prized Icon for 1.5/2.5 units @ $4.20/$1.75
Caulfield Race 9 – Sunday Escape for 1 unit @ $6.5/$2.50 Each-Way
Next Best Bets
Randwick Race 4 – No More Tears for 1 unit @ $15/$4.60 Each-Way.
Best Value Bets
Randwick Race 6 – Knoydart for 0.5 units @ $31/$8.50 Each-Way
Randwick Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 8, 12, 13
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 9, 10, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 14
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 8, 9, 16
Quaddie Leg Four: 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, 19
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Randwick Race 3 – 2000m – TJS Frank Packer Plate
1. Old North: Well backed last start at Rosehill and ran accordingly with a VERY good win toughing it out the whole way. Not convinced there is AS MUCH pace in this race as there was last start. Obviously has the ability to continue on with a win here.
2. Torgersen: Very strong run two back at course and distance when 2nd to Old North. Very disappointing run last start at Randwick with the slow pace out front. Will run well as appreciates the distance but i’m not exactly convinced that he is good enough to improve past Old North with the expected tempo.
3. He’s Our Rokkii: Brave win last start at Randwick ont he soft track taking home the big bucks. Two weeks between runs and up to 2000m for first time. Not 100% convinced he will get a tough 2000m, but that isn’t on the cards today on my speed ratings. Rates well and maps well. Has to be considered.
4. Gold Ambition: Massively strong run three back at Randwick in 3Y-GP1 class from the back. Two runs back failed to fire when lost a plate over the 2000m and last start not suited over the 2400m at all. I think he really can bounce back to form here. Wouldn’t be shocked to see them push him onto the speed to push along the pace today if it’s too slow.
5. Tatoosh: Four runs this prep and failed to fire in all four runs. Hard to suggest.
7. Hierarchal: Best runs have been around this distance in the past. All runs this prep though has been well below his very best seen last prep and hard to suggest he improves past Old North or He’s Our Rokkii.
8. Manhattan Son: Failed to win all prep including in BM-65/3YB-72 etc. Well beaten last start by Old North.
9. Asinara: Out the back last start at Rosehill when running 7th to Single Gaze. Can improve here if jumps better and positions closer to the speed.
10. Aurora’s Star: Could be the speed angle in the race. Maiden and BM-64 winner. Well beaten last start.
11. Zasorceress: Wouldn’t be surprised if she attempts to lead again today. 3rd to Diamond Made last start coming off failing over 1600m in maidens. Not convinced of the form line.
Comments: Old North is clearly the horse to beat here. With a good ride, he will certainly be hard to beat. Will He’s Our Rokkii get the extra 400m today? Based on information to date, i’m finding it hard to pass up backing Old North at the price.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Old North to win.
Randwick Race 4 – 1400m – Kari J H B Carr Stakes
1. Pearls: Very strong return to form last start over 1200m when a close 2nd to Tempt Me Not. Up to 1400m today again and ran nicely enough over those distances previous to that last run. Maps to sit midfield off the rail.
2. No More Tears: Should/could lead this out today. 3Y-GP2 winner over 1200m two runs back in NZ and simply just didn’t run up to expectations due to flight issues for mine. Had a week to settle in and back to 3YO grade is the key. Looks very well rated here from barrier 4. Will be on speed and loves a tough strong tempo.
3. Dawnie Perfect: Never a chance first up due to unsuitable distances. Last prep won over 2000m. Did win over 1600m but 1400m does look too short.
4. Lady Sniper: Nice win second up at Gosford. Every chance on speed last start and not good enough. Struggle to suggest back up to 1400m as well.
5. Denmagic: Average at best run last start coming off three strong runs in a row going through grades. Has to improve and barrier doesn’t help the case.
6. Denpurr: Never got home last start, similar to previous start also. Hard to suggest a win.
7. Tremezzina: Been competing in FMB grade recently and going okay. Big step up in class this one but has been going well enough on ratings to suggest she can run well on speed.
8. Brigadoon Rise: Every chance last start at Gosford and simply outclassed. Struggle to suggest the step up again.
9. Heartlings: Well backed two runs back and failed to fire a punch coming off a 2.5L 5th in 3F-GP2. Failed over the 2000m last start. Back to 1400m… this is her best distance but bad barrier and 2000m back to 1400m.
10. Tap This: 1200m 3YB-67 winner last start. Massive step up in class.. Did run Metallic Crown to 1L in 3Y-GP3 two preps back. Failed to show her very best since though.
11. Yattarna: 3YO placed at course over 1100m in the past. Going okay over 1300-1350 last two starts but found one too good both starts. Barrier makes it tough.
12. Cartier Rock: Well beaten first up. Hard to suggest the improvement to beat all these.
13. Muzyka: Best runs in the past have been 2000m+. Not today off first two runs.
Comments: The market has this one wrong on No More Tears. Just ignore the horse went around last start. Bowman onboard, rates perfectly to get a good spot in speed and is proven at this level… up to 1400m only helps!
Confidence 80%
Strategy: No More Tears for 1 unit @ $15/$4.60 Each-Way.
Randwick Race 5 – 1600m – Moet & Chandon Champagne Stakes
1. Prized Icon: Very strong win last start at Randwick over the 1600m on the soft. Looked a very good horse and proved it. Can continue onwards after that nice run to win this.
2. Jaws of Steel: Fair win at Mornington last start in a nice prize money race and pulled up with breathing issues after that. Different jockey onboard today and much harder task you would imagine. Maps well enough.
3. Chimboraa: Out the back last start which was never going to suit being that far back but ran home well enough for 7th. Rosehill should suit his style better. Unsure over the 1600m.
4. El Sicario: Still a maiden but has a Heavy track Group 1 2nd on record over in New Zealand. Been in town long enough to suggest he is a serious chance. Barrier doesn’t help though.
5. Crown Him: Overraced himself out of the race last start even though it wasn’t run in blistering time. Poorly weighted against Prized Icon as well today.
6. Divine Prophet: 2YO winner last start at Kembla… always a surprise to see a Hawkes runner actually go around double figures like last start! Obviously has some ability but straight up to 1600m certainly interesting.
7. Obscura: Up to 1400m last start ran very well for 5th from out the back at course over 1400m. Breeding suggests 1600m will be ideal. Has to improve.
8. North Sky: Failed in a maiden and 5th last start in a 2YO over 1300m. Up to 1600m. Has to improve significantly.
10. Faraway Town: Solid enough ratings based on two runs to date when 2.8L 5th in 2F-GP2 and then last start 3rd to Yankee Rose. Maps out the back again and can run home well enough.
11. Pop: Looks a nice type based on runs to date. Has to improve going onwards and upwards again but certainly has the ability to sustain a strong opening tempo and still come home well.
Comments: A few horses over-rated here with the odds on offer. Prized Icon is 100% proven and looks good enough to win this for mine and i’m very happy to take the odds on offer today against this lot.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Prized Icon for 1.5/2.5 units @ $4.20/$1.75
Randwick Race 6 – 1200m – Hall Mark Stakes
1. Charlie Boy: Huge win first up at Randwick over the 1300m beating some very nice types in a VERY fast time. Perfect barrier again today to sit just off the speed and shoot past them when it matters. Only issue could be the ground, but by Race 6 it really should be a Good 4.
2. Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Very disappointing run last start in the TJ Smith, but he just doesn’t handle the wet. Back to a dryer track I’d imagine today and hard to ignore off a 0.8L 4th in WFA-G1 the run before. Will be ridden for luck from barrier.
3. Target In Sight: 2nd first up to Malaguerra which isn’t the worst form line to bring into this. Will be midfield to back and running on. Appreciates the ground here. Won many times at track in past.
4. Bachman: Ran home well the last two starts in similar grade. Barrier means will be out the back once again. Needs to improve.
5. Knoydart: Group 2 3rd on record to Chautauqua last prep. Found very little first up. Down in grade obviously preferred.. multiple group 1 placed horse at WFA and open. Better on dryer.
6. Speak Fondly: Group 2 winner last prep in 3YO grade twice over 1200m then Group 1 winner over 1600m. Went around crazy short first up and failed to pull a punch over the 1000m. Can improve up to 1200m but even so it’s hard to suggest against this quality a field.
8. Artlee: Breathing issues to finish last prep. Very best runs were over 1300-1400m, but he was very handy over the 1100m-1200m distances also. Hard to take here based on coming back from breathing issues.. but has been backed.
9. Zin Zan Eddie: Honest as the day is long, but he just isn’t good enough to be winning this class of race over 1200m.
10. Federal: Top 2 in 7 of his last 8 runs. Won first up in much easier grade over the 1400m and steps back to 1200m which is a bit of a concern from the barrier for mine. Can win though.
11. Music Magnate: Money has come for him first up today. Always runs well and got an Open class win on the board last prep over 1400m… also has a win over Good Project. Only issue is distance and never won first up.
Comments: Knoydart is an absolutely stupid price today for a horse that has won 1L off Chautauqua and 2nd in WFA-G1 class. I think Charlie Boy is also value but Knoydart the clear value in race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 11
Strategy: Knoydart for 0.5 units @ $31/$8.50 Each-Way
Randwick Race 7 – 1400m – Schweppes All Aged Stakes
1. Kermadec: Coming into this off a two week break after a very poor Doncaster run out the back and poor post race recovery which is certainly concerning. Change of jockey, awkward barrier, maps midfield but could get caught 3-wide and need to go back.
2. Black Heart Bart: Strong win in a very strong time last start over this distance behind Charmed Harmony. Is beating Charmed Harmony in a Group 3 good enough for WFA-G1 form though? There is no doubt this horse is the real deal, but he will certainly want it to dry up as much as possible with no wet track form to speak of. Maps well from barrier. 1400m is his best distance.
3. Rebel Dane: Old mate just continues to run well without winning. Last two runs though were his worst. Expect to try jump better today from a better barrier and ride for luck. Place at best.
4. Malaguerra: Not the best field last start at Rosehill in Group 3 class when he won very well. Times were sound. Testing material and i’m convinced he isn’t this good, just yet.
5. Goldstream: Not over this distance. Take him on.
6. Press Statement: Never thoughts we would be getting this price for him in a WFA-G1 race that was lacking Winx! He is still running strongly based on results. The issue is, he was beaten by nearly 2 lengths by Kermadec last start when 3.3L behind Winx running 3rd. I personally feel he didn’t run to his best runs last start, but it was always a challenge being a 3YO first time up to WFA-G1. Today, he will get a much easier run on speed.
7. English: Ran very well last start from the back over the 1200m. Only run over 1400m wasn’t great on a wetter track. Has to be respected.
8. Perignon: Yes, she continues to run well this prep in easier races than this. Struggle to see her making the step up to WFA-G1 class over this distance.
Comments: I thought coming into this race I would be best betting Press Statement, but the numbers just don’t measure up for me to be betting with strong confidence even at the prices.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7
Strategy: Press Statement to win.
Randwick Race 8 – 2000m – Sharp Japan Racing Association Plate
1. Terrubi: WFA-G2 winner in France over 2800m beating Brown Panther of all horses! Won a maiden race on soft over this distance as a 3YO… won listed grade over 2400m also so I wouldn’t be shocked to see this horse able to run well today if fit. Hasn’t run since 2014.
2. Messene: Huge run 2nd last start at course and distance when It’s Somewhat got past him late. Berry comes off today which is a bonus for those who backed the horse last start. It’s Somewhat ran 6th in the Queen Elizabeth next start. Maps to have Hippopus and Aomen on speed with him. Has ability.
3. Guardini: Very well backed last start at Caulfield in an easier Group 3 race and just missed when looked the winner. WFA-G2 winner in the past overseas. Clearly has the class and going well enough.
4. Havana Cooler: Group 3 winner first up this prep over what was meant to be an unsuitable 1500m distance. Up to 2000m should go even better today based on the fact the horse runs well up to 2800m! Expect improvement.
5. Moriarty: Hasn’t won since Black Cav was going around. Was a WFA-G1 win that day. Not the worst run first up but others preferred here.
6. Beyond Thankful: Four runs this prep and all very poor to be honest. Take on.
7. Hawkspur: Old mate (only a 6YO!?!? WHAT!?) always puts in a solid run. He hasn’t won since 2014 and went around as a Caulfield Cup favourite at one stage! Last win was on a Heavy track. His first up run was actually very good and I think he is in for a strong run today.
8. Index Linked: Poor run first up. Best runs in past over this distance or slightly further. Hard to see the improvement on what we saw first up.
9. Weary: Hasn’t won since Jan 2015. Average at best in all three runs this prep. Has to clearly improve lengths.
10. Rudy: Could be called a bit of a cat. Just continues to find horse too good. 3 preps since winning. Best runs over lesser distances also.
11. Sadler’s Lake: Doens’t win out of turn and last win was over Rudy. Two runs this prep went around well backed in both but failed to get within 2.3L of a win in either. Up to 2000m should suit but has to improve.
13. Casino Dancer: Group 3 winner last prep. Three runs this prep and failed to fire. Hard to have on current form.
14. Hippopus: Started $3.80 2nd favourite to Tom Melbourne last start but failed on the heavy track. Previous run won well at Canberra surprisingly in Listed grade. Much harder here but hard to ignore. Will be on speed.
Comments: Most open race of the day. Have to go VERY wide in the quaddie here.
Confidence 40%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 11
Strategy: Havana Cooler to win.
Randwick Race 9 – 1400m – TAB Rewards Royal Randwick 100
1. Strawberry Boy: Last start 1400m 2nd to Lucky Hussler was a very impressive run on speed… looks to have turned back the block. Previous prep 0.5L 4th in Group 1… and previous to that in Group 2 0.5L off Winx over 1400m. Top weight, 2kg claim down to 60kg. Lead.. will be hard to run down!
2. Mighty Lucky: Group 3 winner last start over 2000m. First up today never won first up and best runs over much further than this the big issue.
3. Dances on Stars: Continues to run well but hasn’t won since 2014. Hard to suggest it occurs here but obviously well in.
4. Malice: First up here, comes into this off a nice spell. Last prep looked a good type going through the grades. Group 3 placed in the past. Good barrier.
5. Medcaut: Gone through the grades the last few preps and this is the first step up in class. Maps nicely enough and J Mac takes the ride on this guy. Goes well first up and at this distance.
6. Decision Time: Not going well enough on last two starts to suggest especially over 1400m.
7. Shoreham: best runs in past over further. Take on here.
8. Tales of Grimm: First up today with a very large amount of ability. Was a strong 1600m win two back and no disgrace 2nd in Group 3. Probably needs the run but has been trialing well… good first up record.
10. Less is More: 6 preps and never won first up before. Best runs over further. Not here.
11. Pajaro: First up today. Goes well always at this track and always over similar distances to this. Much harder here though than previously measured up to.. struggle to suggest the win.
12. Religify: Big step up in class here but is going more than well enough and maps very well from barrier. Ratings suggest he will be hard to beat… but has never run well on soft if it remains very soft.
13. Nancy: Blocked for run last start unlucky 2nd at Rosehill in Group 3 class. This is easier and she comes in off two strong runs. Rates well.
14. Great Esteem: Not the worst rated horse 1800m back to 1400m here. Has run well in the past in similar types of races but 10 runs 0 wins in them. Has to improve again even from barrier.
Comments: Doesn’t look a betting race for mine on paper but two clear top picks.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 8, 12, 13
Strategy: Back Nancy and Religify.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1200m – Vobis Gold Sprint
1. The Quarterback: WFA took ahold of him last start but even so it was still a very nice run. Obviously flying this prep based on ratings and has to be considered from the gate. Will be getting back and flying home. Track will not be a disadvantage.
2. Thermal Current: Nice enough run 2nd up to beat Precious Gem last start at Mornington. Was a very much needed return to form after almost a year between wins. Maps very well from barrier 3 again.
3. Iconic: Couldn’t win last start at the Oakbank meeting and hasn’t won in a very long time. Hard to suggest at weights.
4. Refulgent: Hard to see why they are running here. Horses best last prep clearly was over much further.
5. Del Prado: First up today. Best runs in the past few preps have been 1300-1400m but he does go well enough over the 1200m distance. Never run at track a bit tricky and best runs over the longer straights in the past. Maps closer to back than front today.
6. We’ve Got This: Had an abscess burst in its off hind hoof yesterday which is a MASSIVE concern for mine. Will race with a bar plate if he runs which is a huge disadvantage up to his hardest test to date off two very strong wins. Struggle to suggest.
7. So Does He: Best runs in the past have clearly been 1400m+ but he does handle the 1200m. Has won at track, last prep, but over further. Minor contender.
8. Kirani: Last two runs have been where he is at peak wise. Ran well to win at Sale but found a tough 2nd to Rough Justice at Wangaratta. Push forward from wide barrier but will do a load of work to get across the field. Not sure a huge disadvantage if he doesn’t.
9. Miss Promiscuity: She is an enigma. Very hard to catch at the best of times. Won a mares grade race last start beating some decent types and obviously ran well previous start 4th to Malaguerra. 3kg better off against Thermal Current for that run beaten a nose. Ride will be the important factor as needs to be on speed here for mine to show her best. 6 runs at track and only missed a place once.
10. Tycoon Tara: Had her chances first up when a fair 3rd. Meets Miss Promiscuity 2.5kg better today for 2L defeat. Should go much better up to 1200m instead of 1100m as well. Maps okay but will need luck in run.
11. Stoker: Inside barrier will be ridden for luck you would imagine. Bit of a return to best form last start when nearly won at Mornington from the back. Up to open grade though hard to have him.
12. Almighty Girl: 3YO grade up to open class. Secret Agenda hasn’t exactly franked the form since until last start Group 2 2nd to Two Blue. Untapped potential, but i’ll never take a 3YO up to this grade first time in, especially at these prices.
13. Jalan Jalan: Out and out sprinter as we know and handles Caulfield fine. Not the worst run last start when got further back than expected and came home well enough. Needed the run for mine. Awkward mapping won’t help chances.
Comments: No value in the price of The Quarterback today, rock bottom odds. Thermal Current will be there or there amounts in the finish and is around the right price. Tycoon Tara has an awkward barrier and will be running well but also looks hard to back. Almighty Girl is under the odds but can’t be left out of the Quaddie. My eyes can only see Miss Promiscuity at the prices today. Expect her to roll forward and run a very game race. She has only missed the place once from 7 runs at this track, she loves Caulfield over the sprint distances and she is weighted more than well enough today.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 9, 10, 12
Strategy: Miss Promiscuity E/W
Caulfield Race 7 – 2000m – Vobis Gold Heath
1. Bondeiger: Hard to ignore today. Very best runs in the past have been 2000m+ and gets that day. Ran very well from the back first up 4th to Velox. Good barrier today so should position slightly better in run today also. Rates well.
2. Firehouse Rock: Two runs to date this prep., Hasn’t produced a run in the past five that could be considered good enough to win this from such a tough barrier. Has to improve, obviously.
3. Honey Steel’s Gold: Not the worst horse going around here. Hasn’t won since 2014. Had every possible last start and found a way to lose. Can improve but others preferred at best.
4. Word of Mouth: Well beaten last start 3rd at Moonee Valley. Best runs in the past have been in this distance range but 8 runs at track has never won and 4 in class never won. Can run well but questionable about winning.
5. Adirondack: Thought his form this prep has been much better than markets suggest. Two wins in a row then a close 2nd to Scelto… ran very well on speed last start at course over the 2400m.. step back to 2000m ideal for mine. Maps as one of two possible leaders so barrier not too much a worry.
6. The Terricks: Doesn’t win out of turn. Finally got one three back at Pakenham when well backed first up over 1400m. One win from 12 starts at this distance. Never won at track. Horrible last start.
7. London Fog: Went over to Adelaide last start to get a win after failing when wide previous start at MV coming off a BM-64 win. Has shown ability in the past in lower grades and obviously on the way up, but I struggle to suggest he makes the jump here to win it all.
8. Ultimate Doom: Gutsy win on speed last start at Cranbourne coming off some average junk runs before that. Has to improve onwards today but should get the lead here and control it with Adirondack.
10. Spur On Gold: Two runs this prep even considering the distance increases have been only fair at best and the horse has been backed in both races. Up to this distance an obvious positive, but 8 runs 0 wins at distance and never won at track from 3 starts. Has to have improved. Barrier makes it tough.
11. Racing Writer: Mildura BM-64 winner two back, just. Failed to make an impact last start in BM-78. Struggle to suggest.
12. Vianden: Well beaten by Mihany last start at Morphetville. Going through the grades and this looks a bit of a throw at the stumps. Hard to suggest.
14. Rong Door Reggie: Maiden win to BM-64 win to BM-70 win at 1500m.. went up to 3Y-SWP at Mornington last start and ran well enough to consider here. Questionable if he is this good though?
15. Wintonia: Maiden only winner… couldn’t win a BM-64 last start yet they are going straight into a Open class race. Shouldn’t be racing here.
Comments: Doing the form, there were only two horse I would consider backing here in Bondeiger and Adirondack. At the prices, we can afford to back both for a result. Most importantly, we have two different positions in running covered with these horses!
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 14
Strategy: Back Bondeiger and Adirondack.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1400m – Troa Anniversary Vase
2. Rhythm To Spare: Goes well enough first up. Very best runs have been 1600m+ in the past and 1400m has just been short of his very best. Good barrier today to sit on the back of the leaders. Tough ask first up with such a genuine tempo.
4. Dan Zephyr: Been up forever this prep. Last start very hard done by beaten 0.3L when blocked for runs over 1200m. Back up to 1400m same grade. Awkward barrier the big issue but is certainly good enough to be winning.
5. Jimando: Nice enough run last start at Caulfield but well beaten in the end by Charmed Harmony and Black Heart Bart with no real excuses on the day. Nicely weighted here.
6. Sistine Demon: Hard to suggest a win here off two very average preps. His best is good enough.
7. Yesterday’s Songs: Doesn’t seem to win out of turn.. has been two preps since he got a win but he never runs poorly. Barrier 3 should see a closer to the speed position today but will still need a lot of luck.
8. Precious Gem: Always runs well. Peaked first up when looked the winner and just missed. Wide barrier will be going back again here.. will be finishing off strongly and rates well 2nd up.
9. Choose: Disappointing run last start. Think we forgive and rate on two previous runs which suggest she is well rated here. Big issue is the gate. Will find it hard getting a good spot in running having to come over from wide.
10 Onpicalo: Last prep took a long time to get going at his best and to break through. Best was over 1600m and as he ages I think he needs the distance. This is a very touch ask. Barrier 1 helps.
11. Enquare: Had every chance last start on speed and just lacked the quality to run down the winner or hold out French Emotion. Will have to improve up in class here and with a stronger tempo on out front.
12. Lucky Lago: Takes a while to go through the motions and to put in her very best runs. First up was only fair. Needs another run or two.
13. Lord Durante: Found nothing first up as expected. Never won 2nd up. Needs further.
14. Inspector: Was a nice enough run for 4th from the back first up. Looking for 1600m+ to find his best but he can run well again. Barrier does rule out backing.
15. Fast Cash: Hugely disappointing run last start well up in class at Mornington. Much better than that run but has never measured up to this class in the past so I just can’t rate him here.
16. Master Reset: Very tough horse to rate on what he has shown us to date. Clearly has ability but continues to find a few too good when it matters. Couldn’t beat Gingerboy home last start at Mildura. Will appreciate the tempo and will be flashing late.
17. Staviva: BM-78 winner at Pakenham first up. Up in distance an obvious bonus. Looks to be going the right way this prep after finishing last prep poorly.
18. Volontiers: Not one I could be backing in this class today based on previous runs.
Comments: Frustrating to see Charmed Harmony scratched. Two clear top picks now in this race in Dan Zephyr and Precious Gem.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 8, 9, 16
Strategy: Back both Dan Zephyr and Precious Gem
Caulfield Race 9 – 1100m – Racing Victoria Off The Track Plate
1. General Jackson: Last win rated poorly for mine and I have taken him on since. Has been well below best this prep as well and this looks beyond him especially from the barrier.
3. Don’t Get Excited: A long time between drinks for this once really talented horse. Didn’t trial too bad it has to be said, but last two starts to fell the story for mine. Hard to have.
5. Bon Rocket: Doesn’t win out of turn but in the past has proven to be a very nice type. Wins have come over further than this though and certainly looks a touch too short even with the 3kg claim down to 57kg.
6. Concrete Johnny: Tassy horse. No world beater. First up run over 1000m was good behind a Erin’s Element who is absolutely no mug over there (ran 3rd behind Nautical and I Love It in a Group 3 three runs back). Maps very well from barrier 2.
7. Mio Dio: BM-84 winner on a Soft 6 over 12000m at Flemington by 2 lengths. Won after that at Morphetville on a Good 4 also over 1250m. Doesn’t have the best first up record and has been a long time off the track (200 days) over the 1100m which looks slightly too short of best, may just be too hard to win.
8. Sunday Escape: Very disappointing run first up this prep in February when ran last at Sale. Previous prep beat Churchill Dancer down the straight. Has since trialled 0.2L 2nd to Petits Filous with Under The Louvre 7.2L back. The trial proved to be that the first up was a forgive run. Maps perfectly from the barrier.
9. Tansy: Never won at track and only once before over this distance range. Very best has been over the 1200m distances. Has the right ratings on the board from the past but the last two starts were far below what i’d expect to be winning this.
10. Danger Close: Not the worst run first up but not a run that screams back me. Never won at the distance from 7 attempts. Hard to have for mine.
11. Ruettiger: Turned it all around last prep with two runs for two wins. 174 days between runs and stepping up in class again here, awkward barrier will need a good ride to get him home, but he certainly does have the ability.
13. Toothless: 4 length win 2nd up with a big weight at Ballarat last start and the time was more than sound. Well weighted here with a claim and only negative is the weight.
14. Shades of Bella: Hasn’t won in the last two preps. 197 days between runs. Have to admit she went close two runs back in all her runs but only run last prep was well below best.
15. Niminypiminy: First up today after 200+ days off the track. Previous prep won a BM-84 mares at Flemington over 1400m. Best runs recently have been over further but does go okay first up and in this type of grade. Win wouldn’t shock me.
16. Andrassy: Maps to get a nice position forward today from the barrier. Won three times last prep going through the grades and goes well first up. First time really in this grade though.
17. Coram: Finished last prep winning over 1400m. Not the best first up runner and really does want further. Nice enough weight though.
19. I’m A Flying Star: Big win at Sandown two runs back before failing to fire well up in class last start at Caulfield. Back in class and well enough weighted.
Comments: I’m very keen to be backing Sunday Escape back down in this grade today at the prices. The trial convinced me he is ready to fire this prep and his form lines are clearly higher class than this if he repeats his best runs here from a great barrier.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, 19
Strategy: Sunday Escape for 1 unit @ $6.5/$2.50 Each-Way
