Welcome to The Profits form guide for Manikato Stakes night at Moonee Valley on the 23 October 2015. Let’s start by looking back at Caulfield. Our Best Bet won, we landed a Quaddie that paid $1300 back for $100 down and we landed the Caulfield Cup winner. Overall we are very happy with those results from the day. The end of the Caulfield carnival means we are well into Spring now and the Cox Plate is just around the corner. First though we tackle Manikato Stakes night. Personally, I think this is a very weak card for such a build in event, but there look to be two to three decent bets on the card and i just can’t be upset with Fab Fevola racing again! I walked the track this week and it’s been prepared perfectly, there isn’t a bad spot to see… will be interesting to see how it pulls up after this meeting with the rail going from the True out to the 3m. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 – Lord Durante on the Each-Way
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Buffering to Place
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 6, 7, 11, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 7, 9, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 10, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1000m – LF Sign Group Handicap
1. Petite’s Reward: 2YO winner over 900m in first prep after a nice 3rd first up at course and distance. First run this prep won well enough at Bendigo in FMB-70 grade. Clearly has to improve on that again but I can certainly see her being a top chance here.
2. Viceroy: Very strong maiden win first up before being well beaten 2nd up by a nice type in Badawiya. Back to his winning ways last start in easier company though. Has the scope.
3. Our Vidia: I was impressed by her first up win last prep at course and distance from the back beating some good types… but her form since has been questionable at best.
4. Stream Ahead: 2L off Petits Filous two runs back at course and distance. Ignore last start run when pulled up poorly and may just have not got the 1200m. Back to 1000m and back to this track, she has the form to be the top chance in this race today. If she jumps well, it will be very hard to run her down. She can still win even if she misses the start as well!
5. Trench Fighter: Maiden only winner this prep with runs since being very average. One i’m going to suggest we take on.
6. Miss Idyllic: I have had a lot of time for this horse in the past but she just keeps taking our money. She’s better than the last two runs, but I just can’t trust her enough to jump in today with huge confidence.
7. Billabong Babe: Failed to measure up in the strong 3YO maidens so went for a cheap kill in open maiden grade. Has to obviously improve on that.
Comments: I’m very keen on Stream Ahead today. It’s hard to pass up a horse that ran Petits Filous to 2L after being slowly away at course and distance when you consider the horses better suited to being closer to the speed in the run. I just can’t bet here though without saver betting Miss Idyllic.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Stream Ahead to win. Saver bet Miss Idyllic.
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1500m – Subzero Challenge Heat 2
1. Girl In Flight: Hasn’t won in her last 12 races and hasn’t placed in 5 races. Clearly furthest back in class she has been in a long time… but she ran 12/12 last start and 13/14 the previous start. Top weight also.. Hard to trust.
2. Slate on Edge: 0.1L 2nd last start at Caulfield having every chance on speed setting a slow enough tempo and just didn’t get the win. Have to improve again today but doesn’t look to be anyone looking to take him on again.
3. Exodus: Ran poorly last start behind Secret Toy Bizness/Slate On Edge so very hard to back today off that run. We know on previous preps he clearly has ability, but obviously hasn’t come back well from that lameness issue last prep.
4. Secret Toy Bizness: Very strong win last start at Caulfield from the back off a slow tempo set out front. Expect a similar run today, but is 2kg worse off against Slate on Edge.
5. Totolo: Did a lot wrong over racing with the slow tempo being set and still almost got the win finishing just behind Secret Toy Bizness and Slate on Edge. I have the feeling they try and lead from the barrier today and the horse looks well suited.
6. Rock Forthe Ladies: BM-55 winner and BM-60 winner. Massive step up here though as he couldn’t even win a maiden.
7. Manor Lady: Couldn’t place in BM-55/R-58 races the last two preps.
Comments: This is a pretty low grade race today, but i’m shocked to see Rock Forthe Ladies put up as favourite. The horse couldn’t win maiden grade races yet is being backed off BM55 and BM-60 wins in the country beating bottom feeders? Yes, this is a Moody horse, but please? This is the lay of the day for mine. Totolo gets the nod from Slate on Edge.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Lay (Bet AGAINST) Rock ForThe Ladies to win. If you don’t have this option, back Totolo & Slate on Edge to win.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 2040m – City Jeep Handicap
1. Akzar: Barrier no issue as he will be out the back as always. Goes well at this distance and has a good record at this track… but clearly he has to have improved in the last 12 days on the last start run to be beating all these home at the weights.
2. Our Voodoo Prince: I think he is going very well this prep especially the last four runs with a win two fourths and a 3rd last start in this company and distance. Gets a very nice run from midfield today and looks well suited at the weights.
3. Sysmo: Three runs this prep and each run has actually been horrible. I couldn’t touch him here.
4. Lord Durante: Strong run three back at course and distance when just missed. Digitalism has backed up that form with a cup win since also. Went well two back over an unsuitable distance also. Due for another win soon and being the clear leader on paper today, he will be allowed to control the tempo. Massive chance.
5. Disclaimer: Six runs this prep and yet to finish better than 6th (was a 7 runner field). No thanks here.
6. Crime Fighter: Two runs this prep and has improved with each run. Nice record at course and at this distance. Gets better later into preps only issue and yet to win at this class from 8 runs. I think the last start run shows the step up in distance will have him right in this.
7. Temps Voleur: Amazing to look at his form. 8 runs this prep before he broke the Top 6 in a race and since he has run first, second, first, first and first. BM-90 up to Open class and up 4kg here. Hard to have at weights but clearly going well enough.
8. Killarney Kid: Measured up in the past to similar grades of class and has won over 2000m at Flemington. Best suited by longer straights for mine, but he has the ability to run well again here off two decent runs leading in.
9. Nesbo: Took the next step last start with a decent on speed run 6th to Digitalism at Cranbourne. Needs to improve again to place here though.
10. Cuban Fighter: Wants further than this in easier grade. Take on.
Comments: I’m super keen on Lord Durante on the Each-Way in this today. He gets the absolute dream run out the front with only Temps Voleur expected to want to be on speed with him. His last two runs at course and distance in this grade were close 2nds to horses that have measured up in harder races than this since those runs as well… and he is from barrier 1 and weighted to win. Most importantly, the main threats in the race for mine will be giving him a length or two at very least heading into the final 400m of the race.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Lord Durante E/W
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1600m – Johnnie Walker Country Cup
1. Kourkam: The best horse in the race clearly. Won 3 from 5 first up in the past and goes very well at this distance including a first up win over this distance last prep and a Group 2 placing the very next start behind a smart type in Suavito. Will be sitting closer to the back today. You know the speed will be on out the front with Leveraction setting the tempo. Suited.
2. Excites Zelady: Ran 2nd in a Group 3 last prep over in Adelaide to The Bowler. Last start won a Listed grade race over this distance. Have to respect the horses ability. Awkward barrier the only negative.
3. Leveraction: Couldn’t win a bloody country cup last start but it was over 1400m… but still. Obviously we know this horse likes the track and likes this distance, but is he really going well enough to beat all these home? We know the speed will be on.
4. Baron Archer: Last two starts have been horrible. Hard to be on him today on recent form.
5. Curragh King: Good win at Seymour on wetter track. Goes okay on Good but best and best recent form on wetter. Have to improve.
6. Sylvan Power: Given no chance the last two starts… best runs over shorter distances. Not sure what they are doing here.
7. Audino: Last win was over this distance. Shown nothing the last three starts. Hard to have today.. but has won 3 from 6 at distance. Takes a long time to get into preps.
8. Kings Palace: Nice run last start at course and distance in easier class. Same weight today a bit of a concern off a peak run as well.
9. Beau Brommell: Two wins from the last two runs going through the grades. Much harder here today. Barrier 1 helps chances but has to improve again back to the 1600m. Tough.
10. Hot Augusta: Country grade – big jump here.
11. Lucky Paddy: Well backed. Huge win two back at Pakenham. Last start disappointing when beaten at Cranbourne. Has ability.
Comments: Not overly confident in this race today but I clearly want to be on a horse midfield or better. Excites Zelady as the scope from a runner i’m looking for, suited by the strong tempo that will be set out front today by Leveraction and in a position close to the speed from the barrier.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Excites Zelady to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 955m – 55 Second Challenge Heat 3
1. Rifleman: Tough top weight today first up over the 955m distance. Barrier means he will need luck to get a spot or will be out the back early. Will get the desired pace on.
2. Grane: Nice enough run 2nd last start in BM-90 grade and down in class today up in weight. Good barrier and will probably get a ride for luck from this barrier.
3. StratumSphere: Goes ‘okay’ first up but didn’t go very well over this distance first up last prep. Best runs over further in past but does go okay enough at 1000m so should be fine over this really. Has ability.. tough from barrier.
4. Canali: Old mate.. hasn’t been the same for two preps and first up run gave very little hope of a return to best form.
5. Fab Fevola: My favourite! Finished last prep with a 1.5L win at course and distance, 5L off in a WFA-G1, 2L off in Open class, 2.5L off in open class and then 2.5L with thumps in R-82 on unsuitable surface. He measured up all last prep over this distance and more importantly, in these classes. Trainer has been patent holding him back a few weeks for this run to make sure he was fit enough for this after a solid enough jump out 3 weeks back. Wide barrier no concern.. jump… lead… pray final 184metres! #GoFabby
6. Klishina: Last five runs failed to place. Back in grade again today looking for a winable race. Have to suggest she is going well enough to figure in the finish if the step back to 950m is suitable.
7. Bullpit: A little surprised to see this bloke so short in the betting today. Won 2 of his last 14 runs. First up he won over in Adelaide beating an average bunch and then last start at course and distance was beaten by a decent type in Tuscan Sling. Won’t get an easy time out the front today either.
8. Pretty Possum: Finished off last prep in top form with a 2nd to Hazard and just beaten 2nd to Grane at Seymour. Wide barrier and hot speed on an issue today.
9. Trevinder: Ran very well last prep but never actually got a win always just missing. Deserved the label of cat and got it last prep. Goes well first up and goes well at this track, but you have to have patience and catch this guy on his day.
10. It’s Poets Day: Ran well on speed last start at course and distance 3rd behind Bullpit. Has to improve onwards again to measure up.
11. Emerenta: Two decent runs last prep just missing in both on wetter tracks. Back to dry track today, you have to consider her a chance if she can get to her best, but she hasn’t ever got past horses of this class in the past.
12. Berlutti: Just snuck home first up at Cranbourne from on speed getting all the favours. Should be going up in distance instead of down today to find his very best.. won’t be suited by the tempo over this distance as well as a few others… but you do have to at least include in multiples.
13. Royal Spinner: Won 4 from 8 but has been racing in much easier company in the country than this. Tough task.
Comments: I’m a fanboy of the highest degree, but I can’t believe they are giving us $14 for Fab Fevola here. It won’t be an official play of any kind, but you know i’m on. Klishina looks the horse to beat today for mine and with the speed on out the front she should be well suited.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 6, 7, 11, 12
Strategy: Klishina to win. Smaller bet Fab Fevola.
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1200m – Bertocchi Handicap
1. It Is Written: This bloke loves this track with 7 wins on it! Not many horses can say that! Goes well at this distance and maps well from barrier 6 with the speed on out front. Last two runs obviously strong enough to be considered here back to the 1200m. Hopefully they try sit slightly closer to midfield today.
2. Rain Affair: Hasn’t placed in 8 run and hasn’t run top 2 in 14 runs.. yet he is going around at single figures today. I have to admit his run in Group 2 company last start was quite good, but up to 1200m not ideal for mine considering this horses issues. Tough weight.
3. Hard Stride: Not sure what to make of his first two runs this prep. They were horrible. He was no where near winning. Last prep he won 3rd up. I just couldn’t back him off those last two runs but we know he clearly has the ability to win.
4. Sea Lord: Old mate loves to pop up and win one every so often, but he got away with murder winning his last race. Not as good as half of these for mine.
5. Mecir: Ran just fairly last start at Caulfield when had every chance off a slow tempo. Just not the same horse as previous preps and 1200m not the best distance for mine.
6. Majestic Duke: This guy has a lot of talent winning 6 of his last 9 races of last prep. Never won first or second up an issue and best over further.
7. Cashed: 0.8L 2nd in WFA-G2 company last start at Caulfield and down 3.5kg today.. but in reality that race didn’t actually rate as a top quality race… but that being said can you ignore the horse? It’s going well.
8. Solsay: He just isn’t going as well as previous preps this bloke just yet. He went well the last two runs but they need to ride him colder to get the best out of him and that won’t occur today from the good barrier.
9. Reldas: Gun ride from Parnham last start at Moonee Valley over the 950m and stole the win. Much harder this today but 55kg and he is a proven class horse on runs previous preps at course and distance. If he produces his best, at the weights, he wins by lengths.
10. Galaxy Pegasus: Did a lot wrong last start at Caulfield and is a forgive for that run. Previous few runs he went well.. looks overs.
11. Tudor: Absolutely hard-breaking 4th last start at Cranbourne when never got a run behind General Jackson and It Is Written. Won’t get an on-speed position as easy today though from the wide barrier is the massive issue.
12. King Buddy: Even at his very best he wasn’t good enough to measure up to this in 2013. Hasn’t shown enough recently to suggest a place.
Comments: Not the easiest race on the card. The only way I can play in this one is to take Reldas coming over the top of them late from the back. He will get the course to suit today and the speed will be on to set up such a swoop.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 7, 9, 10, 11
Strategy: Reldas Each-Way.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1200m – William Hill Manikato Stakes
1. Buffering: Sensational win first up on the firm surface at Moonee Valley holding out Ball of Muscle. A bit of a query with Ball of Muscle failing since at Caulfield next start though. Buffering loves this track and loves this distance also and from the barrier you just know he jump, run and be on speed and hard to get past!
2. Chautauqua: The best sprinter in Australia. Super win first up at course over 1000m in WFA-G2 and then last start down the Flemington straight when they tried to box him in. Barrier two today, you get the feeling he will be out the back with 400m to go and will have to go around a wall of horses. Good enough to do it.
3. Terravista: Had to take a gap through runners last start at Randwick and got the win. I wouldn’t say it was anywhere near his most impressive run, but 20 days between runs you can expect he will have trained on and be running well. Barrier only issue. Could get stuck with no where to go at critical stages.
4. Rebel Dane: Good win first up in Group 2 company then just missed last start behind Terravista and was probably the better run on the day. Will grind home again today but has to improve. Barrier helps.
5. Tiger Tees: On speed last start and well beaten in the end. Has to improve on that first up run but it was certainly a nice run compared with the two runs last prep.
6. Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Won well last start at Caulfield by over 2 lengths in Listed company. Obviously in career best form on that last start run with the times run, but at equal weights he does look to need to improve again to beat all these.
7. Rich Enuff: Not a lot you can say about him. Horrible run last start over 1400m in Group 1 company. Good barrier helps today but it’s a struggle to suggest he will run well in this grade off last few runs.
8. Srikandi: Sensational runs last prep, her best was seen over 1350-1400m and at handicap weights. Tough barrier against the top grade.
9. Griante: The clear value in the race. From barrier 5 and up to 1200, expect them to sit her much closer to the speed today than last start. Absolutely flew home from out the back last start… maps for the gun run.
10. Alpha Miss: Shocked by the price for her today. What did she beat last start? Take her on.
Comments: Buffering, Chautauqua and Griante are the only three horses I could back in this race today. I think Chautauqua is the best horse in the race, but from that barrier the horse will be out the back and have to produce a very good run to run over the top of these. Buffering is a massive price again today and is hard to look past while Griante is the value of the race with the most distance between rated price and actual price.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9
Strategy: Buffering on the Each-Way is the clear play. I’ll also be having something on Griante at the price.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 2040m – Jeep Handicap
1. Lady Cumquat: Hasn’t won in three preps (15 runs). Does go very well at this distance… but first three runs this prep haven’t been close enough to a win. Weir runner… watch for the money.
2. Oriental Lady: Out the back last start at Cranbourne after missing the start… ran home well but it was over at the start. Forgive the run… previous two runs to that have her well in here.
4. Long Face Grace: On speed last start at Cranbourne and won quite well beating a decent field. Will have to work hard from outside barrier today to get a good spot. Have to respect.
5. Sure You Can: Last prep won 3rd up over this distance at Flemington in easier company. Best runs in the past have been on the longer straights and yet to win here. Hasn’t impressed me her first two runs this prep.
6. Imperial Lass: Won a 4 horse race first up as favourite. Not a real surprise. Obviously has ability 4L off Winx over 2200m last prep. Best runs deeper into preps.
7. Ring Da Belle: Continues to run well without winning. Had every possible has chance from the barrier also. Has to improve. Weighted well.
8. Bet You She Rocks: Did a lot wrong over racing last start, but I think she clearly is better over lesser distances than this today in lesser class. Take on.
9. Spanish Love: Loves to run well and not win. A long time between drinks and has never measured up to this class in the past. Does go close at this distance though.
10. Lady Tatia: Taken to Kyneton for an easy kill last start. Finding form at the right time… 0.2L 2nd over this distance three preps back in 3YO grade. Has to improve on previous runs but obviously has the past results.
11. Spectacular Vision: 2.5L 2nd to Delicacy in 3F-Gp3 over 2400m over in WA. First two runs were okay… has to improve but has the scope.
12. Ritzy: Maiden only winner. Hard to see the extra step here.
Comments: Touch race to finish the day. Small lean to Oriental Lady in an open race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 10, 11
Strategy: Oriental Lady E/W
