Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on 22 August 2015. It’s been a tough last two weeks for our tips with lot alot going right. Hopefully today we can get a few things right and turn the form around heading into the main spring form now. One main confident play with 3-4 others on the card that stand out. Expect the runners out the front to have every chance today. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 – Kenjorwood E/W
Backing here with 2 units to place and 1 unit to win ratio. Confident.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 4 – Tawteen to Win
Very keen today with how the rail should be playing early on this drying track. Saver bet Forgeress in the race also.
Melbourne Value Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 – Honourable Aussie Each-Way
Will be leading around the turn and very hard to get past. If gets the sectionals to suit out front and the rail is playing as expected, the threats from the back will be struggling to get close.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 7, 9, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1200m – Quest Moonee Valley Plate 3YF-SWP
Gear Changes: Strykum – Blinkers First Time, Effortless Miss – Winkers Off Fire Time – Blinkers On First Time, Young Amazon – Tongue Tie First Time.
1. Strykum: Talented type who beat Thurlow last prep over the 1050m at Morphetville losing a plate but failed to measure up next start in 2YO-G3 company. Fairly weighted today and if comes back as well as she did last prep, expect a bold showing from barrier on speed.
2. Sebring Sally: Will be closer to the back today than the speed. Only win to date was on heavy but wasn’t poor at all only run last prep when blocked for a run 5th at course over 1000m.
3. Just One Moment: Two starts to date with a nice maiden win followed by a close 2nd on heavy at the bool last start. Much harder here today but should measure up.
4. Grey Street: Only one win to date from 1 run on a heavy track at Seymour. All you can do is perform on the course you are given and handled it like a boss. Tricky barrier.
5. Catch Fire: Missed a win first up in maiden class when blocked for runs. Looks to have the ability but outside barrier will be hard to get the perfect run that’s needed.
6. Effortless Miss: Only one run to date and failed hard. Hard to be excited to back her.
7. Sistine Spirit: One run to date and only managed 3rd in a maiden. Have to improve to place here.
8. Young Amazon: Couldn’t place two runs to date in maidens. Struggle to suggest.
9. Alderney: Double figure odds after an only average trial. Could be the surprise package from the race.
Comments: Strykum maps perfectly to be on the speed today or to take a trail just off the leaders from the inside barrier. Has the ratings in the past and if reproduces the last prep first up run, will be mighty hard to get past.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Strykum to win.
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1600m – Simpsons Construction Handicap BM-78
Gear Changes: Firehouse Rock – Blinkers Again.
1. Harveys True Heart: Good second 2nd up and over this distance on past runs. Back to a dry track today and first up run will have him switched on. Rates very well in this grade… lowest he has seen in the past 10 runs infact… deserving of the top weight and looks a top chance.
2. Leveraction: Runs his best on a dry track and gets that again today on his favourite course. On speed runners should be suited and Payne onboard looks a bonus. Expect them to run it a little faster out front today this deep into his prep to run them ragged. A good ride gives the horse every chance.
3. Firehouse Rock: Blinkers on. Wasn’t the same horse we saw the previous prep first up on a soft track. Blinkers should make a world of difference but barrier is certainly tricky today.Should get his chances.
4. Rainbow Storm: Should be closer to the speed today. Finished off okay first up at Flemington and goes well 2nd up. Measured up to this class in the past over this distance and has the early speed to position positive. If the money comes.. you know.
5. So Does He: Found alot of trouble in running last start at Flemington and you can’t dismiss that run which saw him finish a valid 4th. Back to dryer track a key today… barrier the issue.
6. Ustinov’s Fury: Will be pushing forward today… last three runs on wet were okay… but never won on anything but Good so looks suited here. Measured up to higher class in the past and will be on speed.
7. Gerontius: Disappointing last prep failing to get a win. Best runs over further than this in past. Never won first up.
8. Magnatune: Never won on a dry track in the past, best seen on the wet.
9. Strong Hand: Won three in a row on the wet surfaces with his only defeat on dry. Much harder today.
10. Scherzoso: Easy kill last start over in ADelaide and this looks much harder. Has ability but best seen on tracks with a bit more sting out for mine. Will be too short today with Oliver on board for mine also.
11. Tunes: Hasn’t won in 8 runs this prep in easier grade. No thanks even back on the dryer track.
12. Scapa CoveYet to see a Good track all prep. A long time between drinks and this looks far beyond him.
Comments: A very competitive race. Strong Hand is your favourite and massive unders while Scherzoso is going to start unders also on my ratings. So Does He deserves to be respected but there isn’t much value in the price. Firehouse Rock will have a tricky time from the barrier and i can’t see a huge piece of value in the price either. The two runners at the right prices in the race are the top two in the market. Leveraction will be leading and very hard to get past on a rail that should be helping leaders while Harveys True Heart will appreciate the tempo i’m expecting to be put on and has a very good record over this distance and in harder company.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Leveraction 1 unit to win & Harveys True Heart 0.75 units to win.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 2040m – SAJ Fruit Supply Handicap BM-90
Gear Changes: Count of Limonade – Blinkers First Time, Albonetti – Blinkers First Time.
1. Count of Limonade: Two very disappointing runs to kick off this campaign. Blinkers first time will certainly do the trick up to 2040m today also. Could produce anything today back in this grade… have to consider!
3. Honourable Aussie: Old mate was super poor last start at MV in open class.. well up in weights today and back in class, did win very well at the bool two back. Can argue his best runs are on good tracks and he measured up this prep in this grade previously. Looks the clear leader?
4. Turner Bayou: Horrible run first up over 1700m last start at Flemington. Has won 2nd up in the past and has won over distance… but best runs have been over further and on wetter.
5. Shenzhou Steeds: 2nd up last start at Flemington surprised many including me holding off our best bet of the day given a very good ride by Melham. Certainly a very good run and will appreciate the distance increase again today… but back to a dryer track is the issue.
6. Vizhaka: Three runs to date this prep and failed to get within 4 lengths. Struggle to see a turn around in form here on Shenzhou.
7. Prizum: Hasn’t won since 2012 but he is knocking on the poor the 9yo… very good run 2nd to Refulgent last start at Flemington. Best runs on longer straights though in the past. Can run well again today.
8. Try Four: Rolled as $1.40 favourite last start in Adelaide. 4L win previous to that. Back to dryer track today, struggle to have him on top here.
9. Albonetti: Alby continues to suggest she is ready to win with a nice run 4th last start at Flemington… but you know she will be out the back today in a race that shouldn’t be suited to back markets. Happy to take on at the price even though i think the horse is good.
10. Temps Voleur: Surprised with a win back in class last start at Sandown. Had been knocking on the door. Can’t see the extra step up again today though.
11. Lacey’s Revenge: Last win was in R-58… 6 runs this prep and hasn’t been within 4.8L and that was in R-58… can’t be serious.
Comments: Another race, another bunch of horses under the odds. Temps Voleur is the biggest unders of the race, it just won’t measure up. Albonetti will be out the back today and i don’t expect the horse to be suited by the tempo or biased rail. Try Four is also heavily under the correct odds. You just have to take the run two back off the record and the form isn’t impressive at all. Prizum is running well but hasn’t won since 2012, so can you really take $6s especially knowing the horse performs best on longer straights? So who do i like then? Shenzhou Steeds is hard to ignore after the very good run 2nd up. Has measured up on Good surfaces in the past in harder company, but is only around the right price, not alot of value. Honourable Aussie will be on the speed today and setting the tempo… the rail will be good for him and he looks a great E/W price, well overs on my ratings here on previous runs. Count of Limonade with blinkers on today is the clear value in the race at $30+.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Honourable Aussie E/W. Smaller bet Count of Limonade.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1200m – Dr Sheahan Plate Mares BM-90
Gear Changes: Precious Gem – Winkers Off First Time – Blinkers On First Time.
1. Precious Gem: Horrible barrier today. Never won first up and never won at distance. Does go well at track though and last prep measured up in mares GP3 grade in quite a few races. Not sure she will be suited by the track bias today either and surely goes all the way back from barrier.
2. Tawteen: Very nice run last start at Moonee Valley when did a lot of work first up to lead on a day when no leaders were finishing off the races. Will take improvement from that run and this race looks much easier to win today leaders should be suited. Looks the clear leader without having to work too hard for it either.
3. Snippetee Bee: Had every chance last start with a low weight but didn’t finish off quite well. Happy to take on her today.
4. Flash of Doubt: Ran home nicely enough last start from the back blocked for runs. Barrier 3 could see her closer to the pace and a chance hitting the line.
5. Forgeress: Won two in a row and back in class here up in weights. Barrier 5 looks ideal today and will be hitting the line hard. Weighted nicely.
6. Pilly’s Wish: Every chance last start at Caulfield and very disappointing to see how easily she was beaten off. Was a downward run and is better than that. Barrier 1 will see her get back on the rails. I’d be taking on today.
7. Catch That Cat: Meow. Two runs two wins last prep. Didn’t beat top class horses in either two runs and first up record 2/2… Very good track distance and class ratings so hard to say she can’t win, she can. Maps well.
8. Written: On speed runner but struggle to see her get the lead today. Ran well last start at Flemington and should run well again today, but i just can’t see her having the class to beat all of these.
9. Written Dash: 3F-GP3 winner last prep, ran horribly first up in much harder grade. Goes well at track and weighted okay in this.
10. Cobblestones: Back to form last start when ran nicely for 5th at Sandown. Needs to improve again though.
Comments: The market has this race right for mine. Tawteen is the top class horse and deserves to be favourite while Forgeress is the clear danger on the ratings. Flash of Doubt is the value runner in the race.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Tawteen to win. Saver bet Forgeress.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1200m – William Hill Handicap BM-90
Gear Changes: Living on a Prayer – Tounge Tie First Time, Sardaaj – Lugging Bit First Time.
1. Mighty Like: Eye-catching run last start when kept on with it and beat Tawteen home. Goes very well 2nd up and looks very well suited in the race without Tawteen today. Barrier 11 a massive issue though.
2. Solsay: Two runs to date this prep in harder company and both were fairly disappointing so to speak. I can forgive first up due to the slow tempo which didn’t suit but last start he was very poor down the straight (think we have to forgive that also if going on form today also). So you have a horse with two forgive runs in the end, back to a track where he has run 10 times and only missed the place once… back to a class he hasn’t seen in more than 10 runs from a very positive barrier 4. Only issue for mine is Beriman not riding.
3. About Square: Last win was in this class at this distance first up last prep. Three runs to date this prep in harder company and hasn’t measured up. Needs to find alot more today to win this from poor barrier.
4. Living On a Prayer: Promised alot but shown very little down here in Victoria. Back to a firmer track will obviously help but i’d struggle to suggest here today.
5. Tankster: I like this horse. Won two in a row going through the grades then failed last start as short priced favourite in Adelaide on the heavy. Can return to form today but best recent runs have been on wetter tracks.
6. Churchill Dancer: Stable were keen last start and he just missed for us as a good E/W bet down the Flemington Straight. 3 runs for just 1 place at course previously but this looks a very winnable grade today. Tricky mapping.
7. Valiant Warrior: Took a sit last start with a very good ride and that was the difference with a very good win. Step up in class this race again today but weighted nicely and can repeat that effort here.
8. King Buddy: Found very little first up over the 1000m. Much better suited up to 1200m and back to Moonee Valley.. and goes much better 2nd up.
9. Red Corner: Had his chances last start and was well beaten. Back to dryer track should help chances if can run up to three back run, but can’t see that repeat here.
10. Sardaaj: NZ import for the Hawkes stable. 3F-GP2 and 3F-GP1 2nds over 1600m.. won a maiden beating Admiral by 2.5L and 3L win in BM-65 after that. Looks the real deal but definetly better over further?
11. Stingray: Did alot wrong and never a chance last start at Caulfield. Can obviously bounce back and run better today but this looks beyond him.
12. Just for Starters: Good win two back at Caulfield but didn’t beat much. Found out last start and this looks as hard today.
13. Jersey Whisler: Hard to see him measuring up to these.
Comments: I have a rule with NZ runners, if they come here running first up, they always lose and i’m willing to take that risk on Sardaaj here today. The horses best runs were over 400m further, yes the horse looks good and the form is hard to argue with from a positive barrier, but this is a step up. We have been given a very competitive market with the favourite in at $3s. Stingray looks well short in the markets, i have the horse double the price. Valiant Warrior is a slight bit of value on the last start run while Churchill Dancer is about where i have it also in the ratings. Solsay is the massive overs of the race with the claim from Bayliss getting the run of the race.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Valiant Warrior to win. Smaller bet Solsay.
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1200m – Essendon Nissan MicKenzie Stakes
Gear Changes: Odyssey Moon – Winkers Off First Time – Blinkers Again, Well Sprung – Winkers First Time, Boston Light – Lugging Bit First Time – Racing Plates First Time.
1. Odyssey Moon: Progressed well through his runs last prep but only the one win on record over the 1000m. Clearly comes into this race rated well.. but has a tricky barrier to contend with.
2. Gold Busker: Showed promise last prep with a good 2YO-LR win in Tassy then just missed in Adelaide in a 2YO-SW. Will be on speed and be hard to get past.
3. Manhattan Blues: Nice enough first prep on record with a good 2nd to Stoker and 4th in the Blue Diamond. Will be a long way back from barrier.
4. El Greco: Broken our heart the last two runs missing the win by 0.1L and 0.1L. 1600m back down to 1200m a concer i’d suggest and will be midfield at best today. Obviously has the ability but is this the right distance?
5. Danuki: Will be pushing forward from wider barrier today and won’t have an easy time with it. Maiden only winner last prep but went well at Caulfield for a 2nd in 2Y-SCN class. Have to improve ratings to win this.
6. Destiny’s Reward: Well beaten first up in easier grade. Showed some promise last prep.
7. Bon Aurum: Got maiden win two back and then no disgrace last start out the front at Flemington. Wide barrier makes that task hard today.
9. Vicious: Two solid runs in 2YO class and couldn’t even get the easy kill last start. Much harder this and i’m happy to take him on, he is unders.
10. Trench Fighter: Two runs and failed in both even though backed. Had alot of issues. Take on.
11. Well Sprung: Couldn’t win a maiden last start on Heavy. Hard to match up here.
12. Boston Light: Market only guide. Opened near double current price but has slightly drifted since being backed.
Comments: We have been on El Greco the last two starts and i couldn’t be on today. Yes the horse is consistent and will run well, but at this distance with this mapping in this class i’ll take on at this price. The top two in the market are the two i want to be betting in and around. Gold Busker will be on the speed and that’s where i want to be today, the price looks great and the horse rates well if improved during his break. Odyssey Moon is also a very backable price. The mapping is tricky, but Oli should find a way.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 12
Strategy: Odyssey Moon to win. Smaller bet Gold Busker.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1000m – 1Print Carlyon Stakes 4UP-SWP
Gear Changes: Esclair Choice – Blinkers First Time, Fast Cash – Visor Off First Time
1. Gregers: She was a costly girl last perp going so close in all of her runs. Has a very good first up record and the stable are confident she is going well enough. Goes very well at this distance and loves Moonee Valley. Tricky barrier the only downside.
2. Le Bonsir: Ran very well last start at Flemington in Group 3 company and trainer would have to be happy with that. Best runs have been 1200m+ for mine in the past… dryer track and loves this track, have to consider!
3. Eclair Choice: Very consistent type who has placed in 10 of 12 runs to date having won 4 of those. Best runs seen on Good tracks and has won at track previously. 1000m may just be too short for him especially first up for mine.
4. Mr Make Believe: Ran nicely enough last start when 4th to Our Nkwazi. Obviously have to improve again today on that last start run to measure up. Good barrier but poorly weighted here.
5. Our Nkwazi: Proved the haters wrong last start winning at course and distance at nice odds. Did the same five runs back as well. Have to consider him a winning chance again today but best runs have been on wetter.
6. Il Cavallo: Hit the front and had the race won last start and then got claimed late by Our Nkwazi, nothing was winning that day from out the front and got there a little early in the lesser ground it seems. Best runs in past have been on softer ground than good so ground today that i’m expecting won’t be entirely ideal… but this horse is class and you have to respect.
7. Fast Cash: Two runs for two wins first up in the past including a 3Y-SWP at course over 1200m. Should handle distance no issue… this looks a much harder task first up though. Maps nicely.
8. Tansy: Continues to run well this prep… consistent type. Nice barrier again today helps and finds a dry track for the first run in 4… could that make him measure up?
9. Just Magical: Won firs two runs of last prep but then found a few too good in harder class. Struggle to see fully measuring up here today.
10. Beach Front: Very poor run first up, was horrible. Back to dryer track but no chance i can back today after that first up run.
11. Sweet Emily: Just didn’t enjoy the soft track first up but not sure that’s entirely the whole excuse. Good record at track, distance and second up. Weighted nicely enough from barrier 1 is the likely leader. Hardest test yet.
12. Klishina: Ran wide during race but had every chance for mine last start and didn’t find alot when asked. Needs to improve on last few runs today to win from poor barrier.
13. She’s Ellie: Going nicely but hard to see winning this.
Comments: It’s not hard to understand why Gregers is so short today. Ran 2nd to Group winning Platelet by 0.1L first up last prep.. just beaten by Politeness 2nd up and 0.1L 2nd in FM-GP1 to miracles of life before 2L 6th in Group 1 to end prep. She is a top class horse and the only disadvantage that could get her beat today is the barrier. The others have a lot to prove to beat her home.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 11
Strategy: Gregers to win.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1500m – Sweeney Estate Agents Handicap
Gear Changes: Almoonqith – Standard Bit First Time, Ihtsahymn – Blinkers Off First Time – Tounge Tie Off First Time, Foundry – Hoof Pads Off First Time, Lord of Brazil – Blinkers Again, Blackie – Cross Over Noseband Off Again – Bit Lifter Again, Supreme Warrior – Winkers Off Again – Blinkers Off First Time, Letmedowngently – Bubble Cheeker Off Side On First Time
1. Almoonqith: International runner over from Dubai. Won a Group 3 over 2800m last prep and also R-98 over 1600m. 1500m today in Open class and rates well obviously… but never won first up (won alot 2nd up though) so may really just need the run today in this grade… reckon the track won’t exactly suit either.
2. Kenjorwood: Very very very good horse. Placed in all of his last 13 runs as well. Perofrms on good soft or heavy tracks and best distances have been 1600-1800m. Wide barrier today will be pushing forward to be on speed setting a tempo and be hard to get past.
3. Ihtsahymn: First up run was quite good all things considered for the 1400m. Clearly needs to improve from that run and is best later into runs from previous preps form.
4. Foundry: Best suited by longer straight tracks and further distances it seems. One i want to take on here.
5. Lord of Brazil: Not in this class on recent form.
6. The United States: WFA-G3 winner back in Ireland in 2013.. only manage a 3rd to Mourinho in Aus as best run since. Long time between runs a concern and maps out the back.
7. Abbasso: Very disappointing run last start at Flemington ridden on speed and fell out quickly. Back to 1500m looks ideal i have to say but dryer track a concern on recent run form. Still should run well.
8. Blackie: I like the boy but his form this prep hasn’t said a win is on the cards.
9. Supreme Warrior: Ran on well first up, liked his run. Up in distance ideal on a dryer track. Should run really well and barrier suits for a charmed run.
10. Upbeat: Probably leads from the inside barrier. First up run on heavy an ignore. Did win last prep over further in open grade.
11. Letmedowngently: Tall ship form last prep stacked up with a very good run over 1400m first up.. eye-catching run… in for a big prep and dryer track suits up in distance.
12. Volontiers: Got the win last start just. Previous run to Volcanic Ash was good also. Push forward.
Comments: Kenjorwood is the real deal and a repeat of anywhere near peak run will be very hard to get past especially if the rail is playing to those on speed. Consistent type having placed in 13 of his last 13 runs. Based on the current win odds on offer at Betfair with $4.20, we should be getting $1.80+ for the place.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 7, 9, 10, 11
Strategy: Kenjorwood 2 units to place 1 unit to win
Moonee Valley Race 9 – ADAPT Australia Handicap BM-96
Gear Changes: Sir Mako – Tongue Tie First Time – Bubble Cheeker Near Side On First Time
1. Crafty Cruiser: Won at course and distance in this grade last start with 1.5kg less. Certainly up against it at the weights but he always runs a good race and loves to upset them. Good horse and can win.
2. Reigning: Every chance last start at course and distance behind Crafty as 2nd favourite. Firmer track today but not sure that should turn around the results that much? Good barrier again maps well.
3. At First Sight: Back to firmer ground last start at Caulfield just missed 2nd to Our Voodoo Prince. Up to 2500m should suit based on previous preps runs and is going well enough short backup ideal. Barrier the only issue.
4. Kareeming: Ran very well 3rd to Crafty Cruiser last start from midfield. Equal weight today and lost a plate last start! Should be pushing forward and be able to get a good position without a load of work. Key chance.
5. Sir Mako: Last two runs very poor…. has the ability to measure up on previous runs in NZ over this distance though.. best runs on wetter though.
6. Westsouthwest: Loves to run a 2nd. Close 2nd two back to Crafty here from out the front and then 2nd to Vatuvei over the hurdles since. Better on wetter.
7. Miss Mossman: Disappointing runs in Australia. Looked a really good type in NZ but failed both runs to date. Up to 2500m a throw at the stumps? Should run well but certainly hard to trust on what we have seen to date.
8. You Think So: Big win last start back to easier grade at Bendigo last start. Can run well but certainly need to look at two back run and compare.
9. Hula Lua: Decent horse on her day but happy to take her on today on recent form.
10. Zazpaella: Last two runs not good at all. Back to dryer but shouldn’t make a difference.
11. Sir Laszlo: Couldn’t win easier grade last two starts. Looks only rated if finds best on Good but hasn’t on recent form.
12. Back to Abilene: Just beaten two back by You Think So then come out and won since. Harder grade today though.
13. Cuban Fighter: Back to dryer surface today no thanks.
14. Star Darci: Moving through the grades but this is surely a step beyond.
15. Maharaaj: Doubt he gets a run, even if he does he only won in BM-64 last start by 0.1L. Take on here.
Comments: Tough way to end the day. Kareeming stands out on the E/W here as the most progressive and well weighted horse in the race.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Strategy: Kareeming E/W
