Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on 20 June 2015. Just the one meeting today and i’ll give my thoughts on the feature race up north via Twitter before the race. Expect the Soft 5 to be upgraded to Good 4 throughout the day with the Moonee Valley track’s excellent drainage, expecting the leaders to get their way early on in the day and the track to even out from around R5 onwards. That won’t affect our best of the day in Digitalism who will hopefully get a gem of a run on speed. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 Digitalism to win
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 4 Boomwaa to win
Melbourne Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 6 Tristram’s Sun on the Each-Way
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 6, 12, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Flying Hostess: Ran okay enough over 1400m three runs back at Flemington before showing nothing two back at Flemington. Last start at course and distance in easier company and similar weight was wide and didn’t agree with the ground. Barrier 2 will get a cover up and last shot at them. Have to respect.
Coronation Shallan: Consistent, been 2.8L, 2.5L and 2.8L off a win all three runs this prep.. consistently not close! Has the ability to go close but needs to improve again today from out the front.
Hula Lua: A little too far today? Last start ran 2600m before a spell! 2 runs for 2 wins at track and has in the past gone well enough in much easier class at this distance, but best runs have been at 2000m+ and never won first up.
Every Faith: Out the back but found very little first up. Should go better 2nd up and this is her correct distance. Barrier hurts chances significantly and will need luck.
Noela’s Choice: Big win last start at course and distance after two okay runs in easier company. Up in weight today and back to firmer ground. Wants it wet.
Melaleuca: Did alot wrong last start, pretend she didn’t go around. Two previous runs over the 1600m in similar class were very game. Best runs were on the softer track but does handle firm just fine.. won’t be that firm early anyway.. looks a key player.
First Bloom: At her best she measures up here, but found nothing first three runs of prep… back to firmer ground should help but up to 2000m would help more.
Takeover: Going out the front today, first run on a firmer ground for a fair while and first run over distance for a while also.. never won at distance in 6 runs.
Prie Dieu: Huge step up in class. Can’t see the progression.
Comments: I’m happy to ignore the last two runs of Flying Hostess and look to her best which would win this at weights. Melaleuca rates well enough here also on two and three back runs.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Flying Hostess to win. Smaller bet Melaleuca.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Happy to sit this race out with a lack of form lines in many runners. I would obviously be in the corner of Mawahibb if you asked.
Comments: Sit this one out.
Confidence 20%
Strategy: Mawahibb to win.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Our Harmony: Won well two back at Mornington beating a decent field then last start carrying a top weight won well again back on the firmer track. Up in class again and has the 60kg.. can still win with this. Classy horse.
Faction: Consistent type that has been running well all prep. Good win last start with top weight at Flemington. Up in class but has been running against a similar class of horse the last 4 races. Rates well but need luck to come from so far back.
Herstory: Ran nicely enough first up on the ground which wasn’t expected to suit. Back to firmer track today and back in class… goes well at track and distance and from barrier 3 expect to be closer to the speed today you would imagine.
Propelled: Finished last prep with a very good win in 3FB-78 grade. Mallyon onboard a positive but much harder race this.
Testability: Run well enough two runs to date when 2nd and 4th to Fast Approaching who is a very good type. Need to get a charmed run and improve again i’d imagine.
Cataleya: Well beaten last start at Flemington behind Faction. Need to improve based on previous four runs to date.
White House Lady: Weighted much better today than last start behind Our Harmony. Poor barrier but have to consider if you think Our Harmony is a big chance.
All Australian Gal: Maiden winner on soft then failed last start at Mornington. Hard to have on form to date.
Shakespearean Lass: Maiden winner who went around favourite for some strange reason last start at Flemington, had no excuse really apart from average ride… jockey changed… not sure here.
Cash Appraisal: Maiden only winner in an average 6 horse race. Hard to have here.
Arabian Beauty: Had to go to a FM-MDN to win. Moody runner but happy to take on.
Comments: This race is my biggest nightmare. Where to look? I’ll stick with Faction with a good ride from Maloney at the price.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Faction E/W
Moonee Valley Race 4
Boomwaa: Back to 1200m from the 1400m last start and just missed on the wetter ground at course and distance. Back to 3YO grade from open grade and looks very well weighted against this lot. Rates to win if doesn’t lose a plate again this run!
Oncebittentwiceshy: Won three in a row but well beaten last start in 3YO grade. Has to find much more to measure up here IMO. Did start a R-58 race for a reason four runs back.
Gloop: Got the win on a very heavy track last start in much easier. Hard to suggest on previous runs.
Kansas Sunflower: Ran very well this prep over much further.. back to 1200m but clearly was trained all prep for 1600-1800-2000m but back to 1200m.. I just couldn’t have her on top even with a month and a half off. Can run well but i can’t be on.
Raposo: 0.1L 2nd in 3Yo class.. up 2.5kg today also. Best runs seen on softer ground clearly in past. Won’t get it today.
Sang Choi Bao: Three runs to date this prep and hasn’t measured up. Take him on.
Lyrical Son: Onl won a maiden last prep and was over 1400m not 1200m. No thanks first up this prep!
Valderrama: Maiden only winner… sure it was a decent enough win for being green.. but not up to this straight away.
Canelo: Couldn’t win BM-64 in average time last start – had every chance.
Bullywolfe: Couldn’t win a maiden…
Comments: Boomwaa is the type of horse you pick and choose when he is going to win, and I think that is today. Will take lengths on the ‘favourite’ going to the turn and they will need to be good to run Boomy down. $4s looks great.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Boomwaa to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Minaj: Very hard horse to catch having not won in 9 races yet placing 2 of the last 3. Continues to run well. Has won 2 of her 5 races in the past at course and this distance is certainly ideal. Back in class here, last run in this class was 0.2L 2nd. Wide barrier but pushing forward so no issue IMO.
Flash of Doubt: Shock winner last start at course over 1200m. Back to 1000m not ideal at all up to 59kg back in class. Has to improve again especially on the dryer track.
Pathways: Two and three back runs was outclassed. Last start close 2nd to Flash of Doubt, up in weight.. can run a decent race.
It’s Poets Day: Big win firs tup at Seymour over this distance. Last start well beaten by Smackdown on a wetter track out the front. Back to 1000m obviously ideal from barrier 5, pushing forward… can run well.
Aware: Ran very well last prep but only won 1 of last 8 (placed in 5 others). Took a long time into prep to find her best ratings… and they were outside of this level.
Costamony: Well outside her normal class, i’m happy to take this mare on here today based on last few runs.
Cresta Condor: Not bad all three runs this prep. Progressive type but city grade barrier 16.. not sure she jumps this high today to win.
Down The Hatch: Will be midfield at best on the rail from the barrier i’d suggest. Has shown ability in the past and beat Afleet Espirit as well! have to respect her ability.
Oh So Assertive: You know i do like this girl and i’ll only ever back her on a good surface. Expect the upgrade to come and this track will be a Good rating by Race 5. Tricky barrier but i still have her getting in for a 1 out 1 back run or 1 out 2 back run. Looks weighted well enough to have last crack… but is the 1000m too short? Not sure $60s is the correct price, should be close to $15-$20s.
Pilly’s Wish: Consistent type that rarely runs a bad race. Is 1000m her very best distance? Will be a long way abck but did swoop from last, first up to win it in easier. Serious horse.
Wild Rain: Will be out the front as always. Best runs in past have been on good tracks but also handles soft. Has won at distance and track previously.
Unique Storm: Decent enough when 2nd three runs back… but last two runs have been poor. Needs to find much more to even place even from barrier today.
She’s Ellie: Ran today, shouldn’t be running.
Comments: I think Minaj finds the right race today. Barrier is the issue but from the 1000m start she generally jumps well and has the speed to get over. Back to 1000m looks ideal.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Minaj to win.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Travolta: Took quite a few runs to get into his last prep it has to be said. Goes well at this track and good barrier, but could you be on today? Stockdale onboard also an obvious negative.
Metaphorical: Got the win last start at course and distance in this class. Down 1.5kg today and rates to go close again. Will be 3 sets back from barrier at least you would expect.
Alcohol: Two runs in this prep and stepping up to the right distance here it appears. Going well enough and Jolly doesn’t send them over without expecting to win. Barrier is key and will get a sit midfield.
Lake Sententia: Best runs in past seen over much further than 1600m… generally 2000m. First two runs shown very little but a month between runs, Weir could land a good plunge if he wanted here. Barrier will mean gets last shot from a charmed run.
Tristram’s Sun: Not going as well as last prep just yet. Meets Metaphorical 3.5kg better off today which is a positive and i did think two back run had more merit to it. Is better ridden not leading which he will get today just sitting off them.. expect improvement.
Text’N Hurley: Failed first up but then straight up to 1600m close 5th to The Bowler. Failed to run it out last start and no reason for it from the vetting. Struggle to back a horse after a run like that. Will be out the back.
Onpicalo: First up run was woeful but back to easier field last start ran very well 3rd to Minnie Downs on a softer track. Might just be a little too firm today to find his best in this grade.
Lightenuff: Shown nothing either run this prep. Struggle to suggest a win here on what i’ve seen to date. Would like some more rain.
Diamonds At Noon: Hard to suggest based on first up run.
King’s Dance: Won two in a row, continues to run well. Way up in class today though and only goes down 4kg. Will run well but not sure he finds enough to beat this lot.
Sadaqa: Ran very well two back but the form from that race hasn’t exactly worked out too well just yet. Failed on the wet last start. Can run well.
Comments: I’m giving Tristram’s Sun another chance based on the weight swing today and expecting the horse to be ridden with cover instead of out the front which i think settles the horse more and allows it to finish off races.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11
Strategy: Tristram’s Sun E/W
Moonee Valley Race 7
Gold Medals: Running well this prep, has been up a long time and just missed last start at Eden. Best runs this prep have been on softer tracks… back in class big time and top weight… respect in this grade but certainly needs to get a good run from good barrier.
Goldoni: Looks to be back to his best on the quality shown last start from out the front at Flemington. Weighted well enough against this lot, can run well.
Doctor Care: Back in class today after getting the win over in Adelaide off a low weight. Respect that run and had no luck previous run at Flemington when blocked for runs. Can win.
Word of Mouth: Beaten as a favourite last start up at Randwick on a soft track. Back here today, ran very well two runs in a row and will get the cover from barrier 1 to have the last shot. Looks top chance here.
Airalign: Decent enough win on softer track last start at Mornington. Needs to make the jump in grade again… barrier hurts.
Master’s Degree: Shown nothing two starts this prep but getting up in distances. Still needs to get up over the 2500m to find his best form.
Royal Mephisto: Not the worst run last start in easier class. Weighted only fairly today IMO, others preferred.
Black Tomahawk: Big priced winner over 1600m last start at bendigo. Didn’t beat much. Back to firmer track not exactly idea. Has to improve.
Shikarpour: Backed in last start to improve at Flemington but never got close. Has to find much more than that run to go close and place today.
Lannister: Every chance on speed last start at Flemington behind Goldoni… much better weighted… but at this distance in this class will need to improve.
Fracking: Every chance over in Adelaide last start on the heavy. Not sure the ground today in this class suits at all. Take on.
Diamond Duke: Happy to take this bloke on back on a dryer surface up in class today. Place at best.
Lacey’s Revenue: If this was a R-58 race i still wouldn’t be backing him.
Comments: Very happy to be on Word of Mouth at the price today. Certainly will need the right ride from Moloney to get off that fence and a run at the right time, but has the ability and class.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 11
Strategy: Word of Mouth to win.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Digitalism: Last start won well at course and distance in this class by 1L. Up 3kg today but from barrier 3 will jump and be on speed or just with a sit off the speed and be hard to get past if the rail is on! Would prefer ground a little softer only issue. Good 4 is fine, prefer soft 5.
Commanding Time: Three runs this prep and not finished closer than 3L off a win. Up in class, hard to have.
Verdant: Continues to be bet at single figures and continues to not go close this prep. Based on four and five runs back form you would consider him especially with the 54.5kg here, but you can’t trust him.
Westsouthwest: Three runs this prep and shown nothing at all. Take on, even though he has good form at this track.
Spinderbella: Has won in past 2nd up (last prep). Up to 2040m today which is her distance and has won at track over this distance in a similar class. progressive type but weight scales may have got her today.
Amaverde: Had to go to Eden to get a win last start! Previous three runs were poor… wants more rain than we get? Not sure. Had to see measuring up at weights.
Special Miss: Strong win last start at Flemington in easier company. Failed to measure up out of fillies grade an issue and this is hardest run to date.. weighted poorly.
Ava’s Delight: Jumped well enough last two… weighted okay enough today but struggle to suggest due to chance of jumping out last.
Strike The Stars: Has finished outside the top 10 in 6 of last 7 races and the other race was only 9 runners finishing 12L 8th. No thanks.
London Stripe: Every chance all four runs this prep. Jump up in distance not exactly what he is looking for to turn it around on form to date.
Falago: Never runs a bad race, Gone close last two starts. Have to respect but does look only averagely weighted today at best.
Use The Lot: Goes well at track and distance. Can run a nice race today.
Comments: Digitalism looks very well weighted today based on winning last start thanks to compressed weight scale. Looks a very good price here. Keen.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 6, 12, 13
Strategy: Digitalism to win.
Moonee Valley Race 9
Desert Jeuney: Last win was in 2013 over 1200m. Didn’t run too bad hsi last run over 1200m but certainly too short at this weight.
Streets Away: Best runs in the past have been over further. Goes well at this track generally speaking with 1 win from 2 here… better seen later into preps.
Le Bonsir: The sir is certainly hard to catch and hasn’t won since 2013! Loves to run a close race and has run 2nd already this prep to Lumosty. Goes well enough at track and have to respect, but best runs seen on firmer grounds.
Boristar: Promised alot last prep and didn’t disappoint. Not the best first up runner is an issue with just 1 win from 4 first ups and also normal jockey in Kah isn’t riding as she is taking time off racing. Arnold gets the ride and that’s a big negative for me, especially from barrier 14. Should be pushing forward but could get caught 3-wide on my maps.
Daytona Grey: Huge win on wet track four runs back and found little since on firmer tracks. Won’t get it wet enough but is a good place chance if remains a soft track (doubt it will).
Henwood: Blinkers back on today, his run two back was respectable and goes well enough at track. Little sting out like it is today doesn’t hurt at all. Has the class to win.
Solsay: Loves this track and loves Beriman on his back. Placed 8 of 9 runs at track with 3 wins amongst that. Goes well first up and looks well weighted today in this grade. Maps perfectly.
Nearest to Pin: Pushing forward from out wide, ran well enough last start in easier company when 4th. Won just once in 16 starts in this type of grade suggests hard to see him winning today. Can place.
Our Nkwazi: Showed nothing first up, back in class and won at course at huge odds last start at distance. Down in weight up in class, don’t dismiss him here.
Sea Lord: Looks to be needing the run based on first up run this prep going up to this grade. Happy to take on from barrier.
Le Remas: Not the worst run last start when slowly away out the back. Poorly weighted here though compared to others in race… but this is a listed winner in the past at his peak… looks the blowout chance if produces.
Morant: Wide the whole trip last start and was huge. Big jump in class but have to respect.
Society Man: Good type but couldn’t lead all the way and beat Academy Jack last start at course and distance. Big step up in class again, will have charmed run at least.
Hannaford: Needs Further.
Rock ‘N’ Gold: Strong enough runs the last two races for 2nd and 2nd. Big jump up in grade and not exactly weighted very well. Take on.
Comments: Solsay goes well at course and distance and maps for a very good run. Hard to pick around the horse here at the odds. Henwood with blinkers on may just run a blinder.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13
Strategy: Solsay to win
