Welcome to The Profits form guide for 18 June 2016 at Ipswich and Moonee Valley. We have had a good few weeks on the punt which always helps out. Just limited numbers of tracks looked at again today due to Ascot happening overnight every night this week. Looking forward to a solid day and as you can see, not much value on the cards so we have gone short and sweet. Hopefully we can get a few winners on the board with limited bets on the card today. Really hoping for some positives results today. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Bets
Bet #1: Moonee Valley Race 4 – Lahqa for 2 units @ $3.80
Bet #2: Moonee Valley Race 3 – Turnitaround for 2 units @ $2.60
Bet #3: Moonee Valley Race 9 – Duke of Brunswick for 2 units @ $4.40
Bet #4: Moonee Valley Race 7 – Bassett for 1 unit @ $4.80
Interstate Bets
Bet #1: Ipswich Race 6 – Maurus for 3 units @ $2.60
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Ipswich Race 6 – 2150m – Ipswich Cup
1. Puccini: Goes well over this distance range but hasn’t won in more than a year and a half. Two back was a nice run 2nd to Real Love over 2200m but last start a little disappointing. 7 days between runs.. pushing forward today wouldn’t shock. Top weight.
2. Maurus: Very strong run last start in WFA-G1 class at Doomben and run previous on a soft track was even better. Any rain that comes throughout the day will help and it is expected, just a few mm’s. Distance no issues and goes very well in this class. Will go out the back and make a move on the turn and be very hard to hold out!
3. Worthy Cause: Likely race leader on previous preps form. Didn’t lead last start over the 1600m. Never placed over this distance in the past an issue.
4. Iggi Pop: Very plain last start after a nice run on softer ground 2nd on previous run. Has to improve at the weights to match it with a few here. Maps well.
5. Jumbo Prince: Listed grade winner over 1600m this prep but well beaten last two starts. Not combined this distance will suit.
6. Instrumentalist: Hasn’t won since 2014. Not going too badly this prep but was smashed by 4 lengths by Maurus two back.
7. Dance of Heroes: Never placed in this grade in the past. Two back run was nice enough to suggest can run well but struggle to suggest a win.
9. Nissile: Beaten favourite the last two starts in much easier grades. Back to dryer track will help but struggle to suggest a place on last few runs.
10. Kurrajong Dragon: Not here.
11. Meru: Not gone close since 2nd in a maiden. Carey is a master, but not here.
Comments: Maurus is the best horse in this race by a mile. As long as they don’t crawl out front I fully expect Maurus to get a very good run out the back, get going early and be too strong for this lot.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Maurus for 3 units @ $2.60
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1200m – Friends of Epworth 2Yo Handicap
1. Artie Dee Two: Weir runner. First up run was a winner. Go forward from wide barrier.
2. Sky Muster: Will push forward and compete for lead from barrier. Won well enough over 1000m… but time wasn’t super good.
3. Liberty Song: Maiden winner and then ran well enough considering he was galloped on last start. Will get a nice spot in running and looks suited.
4. Back To The Bowler: Trialled okay. Hard to see the big step up as needed though.
6. Mistoffelees: Couldn’t win a maiden first up. Hard to rate.
7. Ocean Grove: Decent money came from him last prep when ran poorly behind Flying Artie. Win wouldn’t totally shock.
8. Party Bag: Just missed in a maiden last start on heavy. Only runs on dryer were average previous prep.
9. Tenappy Ladies: Looked good when winning a trial. Nice barrier to get a good run.
11. Trenchant: Only run was in a maiden and failed hard. Struggle to suggest.
12. Vegas Strip: Heavy track 4 length winner on heavy in maiden. Not for me even with weight.
Comments: Wide open race. Not sure there are any world beaters in this class and i’m happy to go with the value in the race in Liberty Song.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Liberty Song E/W
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 2040m – Pantry Packer
1. Try Four: 1400m Open class win at Geelong first up and then three runs since been beaten by over 5 lengths on each occasion. Well back in class here today and best is more than good enough on previous preps runs. Expect them to use the barrier advantage and push forward.
2. Nesbo: Wide barrier doesn’t help chances. Will be back in the run and wide coming into the straight. Top weight with no claimer onboard. Was a good win over 1600m first up in harder class with no weight. Dryer today and longer distance… obviously a good type.
3. Black Stardom: 2500m back to 2000m a big disadvantage for a horse that has shown its best runs over further. The wetter the better based on last few starts also. Another test today and this does look harder on paper. Tuck away the rail out the back.
5. Schockemohle: Always seems to produce good runs with bad luck and finds a way to just not get the win. Wasn’t suited first up on heavy but ran okay. Up to 2000m and back to MV… could run a cheeky race.
6. The Rumour File: Ran very well last start at Flemington. Back in class here and fairly weighted. Should map well.
7. Rio Perdido: Nice barrier to get a sit midfield. Hasn’t gone close in a long time though… yes if produces a good run has to be considered.
9. Lord Ore: Bm-64 winner last start… hard to see the improvement needed even at the weights.
10. King Way: Going okay this prep in… 2000m 2nd to Teletext in France on the record from 2014. Has ability but has to show it.
11. Cerutty: One of the few to take on based on previous preps even at the distance increase.
Comments: Try Four is the clear value in the race while The Rumour File will improve a stack here compared to the previous runs.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back both The Rumour File and Try Four.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 2040m – Vital Healthcare Trust Handicap
1. Turnitaround: Won four in a row and can very much make it five on the run today. Same weights today as last start and really suited by the step back up to 2040m. Only query is if the track will suit him here.
2. Crafty Cruiser: Not the worst run first up over 1600m but obviously wanting further. Never won at distance in the past.. here for a sandwich and a place?
3. Sense of Occasion: Hasn’t won for over a year. First run at track. MvEcoy runner. Looks okay enough in at the weights but three runs this prep well below what’s needed to be a chance.
4. Alcohol: Three runs back this prep over shorter and failed to fire any shots. Two weeks between runs and up to this distance today helps… but this is certainly a tough race ratings wise!
5. Longeron: Tough horse to catch on the best of days. Had the race shot to bits last start and didn’t last the final 50m with Turnitaround getting past. Down in weight here helps, but won’t get an easy lead today and better seen on longer straights.
6. Sysmo: Ran 3rd last start behind Longeron and Turnitaround. Not very well weighted here and hasn’t won for 3 years.
8. Backbone: Hasn’t measured up to this grade in a long time.
9. Sandhill Chief: Looks the clear overs in the race. Won two cups in his past three runs and two back was very much just a forgive run. Best is clearly good enough to suggest he can run a nice race from out front at the odds.
Comments: Hard to look past Turnitaround at the price on offer based on the form coming into this with how the track is expected to play and be rated.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Turnitaround for 2 units @ $2.60
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1600m – Zouki BM84
1. Every Faith: Rubbish barrier wide out and will have to settle out the back. two back run was quite good at Caulfield when alot went wrong and blocked for runs… but last start ran very poorly. Goes well at track.
2. Khutulun: Never suited on the heavy last start but still ran a bold race. Wet again today which is a disadvantage but I think it will dry up enough by R4 to be acceptable for her. Well back in class and up to 1600m which is ideal. Win won’t shock.
3. Noela’s Choice: Every chance the last few runs and just hasn’t got close to a win. Well back in class like a few others but she is testing everyone’s patience.
4. Brinkley Bliss: Will be pushing forward from the good barrier. Last start winner in Adelaide… step up in class here and has to improve onwards this deep into a prep.
5. Dig A Pony: Hasn’t run well since 4th four runs back. Struggle to suggest.
6. Lahqa: 3YO class back up into open age class for the 2nd time in career. Started $3 favourite last time this happened up to BM-82 grade and she was well beaten as favourite. A bit of a query at the prices if you ask me… but obviously she is the one to beat on form.
7. Clemency: Inside barrier and should get a gem of a spot on the rail 1 back. Nice win last start and rates well coming into this even though she is up in the weights. Won 3 of the last 4 and managed well.
8. Ma Jones: BM-70 grade winner and a month between runs for Weir stage. Started favourite the past 5 races for reasons. Hardest test.
9. Zakayla: Well beaten all three runs this prep. Very hard to suggest.
10. Solar Burst: Couldn’t place in last four runs in easier grade. Take on.
Comments: I want to be on front runners today and Lahqa ticks all the boxes at the reasonable $3.80 on offer.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Lahqa for 2 units @ $3.80
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1000m – Oneview Healthcare 3YO Handicap
1. Fireworks: First run for new stable. Last prep didn’t go close to a result. Previous prep as a 2YO ran well in Group 3 and Group 2 class to place in both. Has some ability but will be out the back.. will be hard.
2. Petite’s Reward: Good position on mapping from the inside barrier. 1000m is her best distance. Goes well at track and steps back from good open grade runs to 3YO grade.
3. Dance With Fontein: Nice enough win last start at Pakky when favoured to win. Up in class and down in weight. Has to improve though on what’s seen too date but loves the 1000m.
4. World of Hope: Going very well this prep. Good win first up and then unlucky last start doing a lot wrong from out the back after jumping poorly. Back to 3YO grade here and well suited.
5. Certain Ellie: First up here and never won first up. Goes well at MV on previous preps runs. Best more than good enough to measure up.
6. Strykinglee: FMB-64 winner last start at Ballarat. Huge jump in class here and not convinced it could happen.
7. Dream Food: Going forward. Ran okay 6th to Divine Chills last start at Flemington. Better suited by Moonee Valley.
8. J’Star: Won two in a row… much harder here. Take on.
9. Doc’s Hero: Not been seen since a good maiden win at Pakenham. Maps nicely on speed. Looks overs with the claim if reproduces a run.
10. Powerful Story: Maiden winner and didn’t measure up in BM-64 grade last start. Have to take on.
12. Sky Dazzle: Maiden winner. Failed to fire both runs last prep. First up.
13. Snitzel Music: Average at best form coming into this. Maiden only winner so far. Take on.
14. Deconi: Couldn’t place in a FMB-64 last start behind Unique Storm. Struggle to be confident with her.
15. Parcel: Best in past would be good enough to run well here, but hasn’t done anything this prep.
16. Prontezza: Moe winner in average time over the 1000m. Have to take on at the price.
Comments: Wide open race… good luck finding a winner in this one. I have to go with the value runner.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Doc’s Hero E/W
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1000m – Silver Thomas Hanley BM84
1. Celeritas: Got two wins last prep. Best runs in recent preps have been a few runs into prep so first up today i’m not wanting to take this horse with 60kg.
2. Pink Perfection: Very strong run first up in harder grade with a low weight. Finds herself well in here for mine.. but hasn’t ever produced her best runs at this track in the past is a concern. Maps to get a good spot in running which is important… on speed.
3. Anyaas: 1600m back to 1000m here. Simply looks too sharp for her. Have to take on.
4. Solar Duchess: Well back and will have to get a bit of luck to find the right runs. Goes well at this track though which is a big positive and likes it wet. Last three runs well below the grade though.
5. Hotel Sierra: Goes well at track. Last few runs have been improved runs and she continues to run well without winning. Weighted well here but barrier does make it awkward.
6. Appalachian Annie: First up today… goes well course, distance and first up. Last start run on soft no disgrace run. Must be pushed to lead here from the barrier or sit outside of leader at very least.
7. Chiavari: Strong run last start at Sandown just beaten 2nd to Magnagem. Nice barrier will get a good enough spot in run at a good weight. 2.3L off Supido four runs back. Goes well on wet also.
8. Bella Capri: Hard horse to catch. Last start run was over magnagem at Caulfield. 1 run 1 win at course.
9. Magnagem: Good win last start at Sandown coming out of a few decent form races. Up in weight but still well enough in.
10. Kalabek: Hard to suggest first up in this class based on last prep runs, especially first run in.
12. Zambezi Diamond: Best runs in the past seen over further and in easier. No thanks.
13. Sharatan: Out the back in running. Goes well enough at track but always needs luck to measure up.
14. Sagabella: Not here on previous runs.
Comments: Hard race to select just one horse on top. I want to be on speed here and my slight lean would be towards Appalachian Annie.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Appalachian Annie to win.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Kane Constructions 3yo Handicap
1. Prince of Brooklyn: A horse i have a huge opinion of. We haven’t seen him in over 8 months. 3kg claim has him very well in this top class race. Will be pushing forward from the gate. Soft track is IDEAL for him.
2. Bassett: Huge run 3rd last start at Sandown when just missed. Back to 1200m but stays on a wet track which is expected to suit again. Maps to get a good spot from insied barrier and i’d love to see them try and lead today.
3. Equinova: Two runs this prep and yet to place. Up in class here as well. Not for me.
4. Wind Force: Going okay this prep with a win and a second when favourite. Best runs are okay, but needs to improve to keep on winning against these.
5. Chavuma: CL1 winner. Big step up in class and times not overly exciting out of last start.
7. Tan Tat Charger: Disappointing 8th last start after two solid enough runs. Back to 1200m. Decent barrier.
10. Staghorn: BM-64 grade winner last start. Well beaten other runs in 3Yo grade. Outclassed.
11. Well Sighted: Two runs 0 places at track. Hasn’t won in 8 months. Best runs have been on wetter tracks but 0 places 6 runs in this class.
12. Firsthand: Maiden winner for Hawkes stable. WIll start unders.
13. Charlie Garcon: Couldn’t get close last start in a CL1. Better than that but not good enough for this.
14. Dash For Georgia: Can’t win a maiden or even place in one.
Comments: I’m pretty confident that Bassett will run very well here today and the price on offer is juicy for us to find out.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Bassett for 1 unit @ $4.80
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1600m – GJK Facility T.Harrison Cup
1. Kenjorwood: Surprise winner last start at Sandown over the 1600m on a soft track and won with ease. Up in weight slightly but the claim takes care of that. Very good barrier in 6 to get a nice spot in running and track will be soft again. Respect.
2. Au Revoir: Had backing last start but was beaten a lazy 27 lengths and 20l previous run to that. Hard to suggest here after last start run over equal distance.
3. Almandin: First run since 2014. Talented import for Williams but has taken forever to get to the track. Beat Protectionist in his last run and ran Solow to 3L 2nd over 2000m. This is serious Group 1 winning world beating form horses we are talking about. If he comes into this at 90% of his former self, he is a serious chance. Will love the ground.
4. Chance to Dance: Out the back and so were his chances last start. Up to 1600m well suited here at a course he runs well on. Handles wet surfaces fine.
5. Rugged Cross: Gone backwards this prep. Hard to have on recent form.
6. Rhythm to Spare: Three runs this prep and found little to suggest a win here.
7. Kapour: Old mate hasn’t won for nearly a year. His best is over further.
8. Guest of Honour: Beaten a long way last start. Previous run had merit. Not convinced he handles the wet surfaces.
9. Lord Durante: Old mate was blocked for runs at critical stages last start but still well beaten 3rd to Kenjorwood. Has to improve.
10. Onpicalo: Improved run with bottom weight last start. Similar here today but 0 places from 2 starts a concern at track.
11. Manalapan: Import who had been competing in Ireland and won in Open grade. Best runs over MUCH further say 2600m.
12. Fast and Free: Every chance first up when out the back but never really ran into it. Should be improved fro the run.
13. Spreadeagled: Got the money last start at sandown behind Show A Star. Well up in class here but has the ability to consider.
14. Cloudscape: Ignore last start. Will run better today. Still not sure he is a winning hope.
Comments: Fair few runners of note. Kenjorwood will map perfectly and gets top spot. Almandin could be anything and Chance to Dance will run well. Spreadeagled from further back in the same goal.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Kenjorwood to win.
Moonee Valley Race 9 – 1200m – Di Office Design Handicap
1. Riziz: Hasn’t won in yonks this bloke. First up ran well at Morphetville in an easy race when favourite and found one too good. Last two runs have been crap from closer to the back. A shade of his former self.
2. Heart Testa: Needs to find improvement here to keep racing.
3. Gracious Prospect: First up today and training very well back home. 1200m a touch short to find his best but can win at it.
4. Sadaqa: Last prep proved to be a talented type. Over 1400-1600m that is, not 1200m. Take on.
5. Nicoscene: One decent run last prep and the others were rubbish. previous prep won Group races. Barrier makes it hard.
6. Vibrant Rouge: Huge upset win in Feb over in Adelaide. Four runs since found nothing.
7. Magnus Reign: Never a chance with the big drift last start. Have to take on again today.
8. Duke of Brunswick: 3-wide the trip last start just unlucky. Should have rolled them by 3L. Gets the conditions to suit today and the distance is perfect. No excuses.
9. Kievann: Just missed last start behind Magnagem. 1000m up to 1200m and up to this grade is dangerous.
10. Voodoo Lad: Beaten favourite last start and that horse has won since also. Looks well enough in from the barrier going forward.
11. Belesron: Two runs this prep. First up was decent but last start on heavy and vetted pre-race he hasn’t shown us enough.
12. Pilly’s Wish: Hard horse to catch. Loves to flash and run 2nd. Won’t see much improvement tomorrow!
13. I’m Ablaze: His best is very good but he rarly ever shows that form. Nice enough rated but others preferred.
14. Takeover: Mares grade placed two back then found out last start on Heavy. Not the best wet surface horse ever.
15. Big Buddie: Old mate still going around as a 7YO. Loves to produce good runs then fail to finish off.
Comments: Very happy to play Duke of Brusnwick off the last start run.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Duke of Brunswick for 2 units @ $4.40
