Welcome to The Profits preview for Moonee Valley and Ascot on 26 November 2016. With the rail position at the Valley i’m expecting the best spot to be a few horses off the rail which will mean you can win from anywhere and those positioned just off the speed to out the back will most likely be the best advantaged. There are a few good bets at nice odds on the card today and i’m quite confident we are going to get some solid results to finish off cup month. As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 1 – Invincibella – 5 units @ $2.04 to win
Next Best Bet
Ascot Race 8 – Rock Magic – 2 units Each-Way @ $11/$3.2
Best Value Bet
Moonee Valley Race 4 – Hellbound – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $8.00/$2.50
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6, 10, 12, 13
Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 11, 13
Leg Four: 7, 9, 12, 14
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1600m – Summer Membership $99 Handicap
1. Invincibella: Get back run on type that ran very well last start 3rd behind Jennifer Lynn and Prompt Response in a quality form race. Won well the previous start. Nicely weighted here today and most importantly maps to get the ideal run out wide today.
2. Moonlites Choice: Two solid runs heading into this prep in easier grades before being well beaten in Listed grade last start at Sandown behind Prompt Response beaten 2.6L. Was given every chance with the ride on the day as well. Has to improve at weights.
3. Senor Alf: Back to a winnable grade last start at Wangaratta and got a soft kill on a soft track. Won’t be that soft here and looks hard pressed to place.
4. Battle Order: Looked a nice type last prep with a 4th at Flemington in listed grade (beaten 5L still on the day). Last prep only just got the maiden win first up and was a decent 3rd in easier grade. Step up in class here.
5. Heavenly Descent: Two wins in a row including a last start win at this track in similar grade pushing away from them late in what was only a fair race. Looks one of the chances and will be pushing forward for the lead.
6. I Taut I Saw: Maiden winner two back. Fairly beaten last start in easier grade behind Dubai King and Dane Thunder when had every chance. Has to improve to run top 2.
7. Tiffany’s Lass: Certainly a nice run last start when fairly beaten by Heavenly Descent. Hard to see a turn around in placings here but she does have 51.5kg today on her back and it wouldn’t surprise me if they ride her more differently on speed from the barrier.
Comments: Invincibella is the clear top pick in this race and rates as a very nice bet to start the day. Heavenly Descent on form is the one to beat but doesn’t get the run I want and looks exposed here.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Invincibella for 5 units @ $2.04 to win
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1000m – Whiteman Property Plate
1. Cao Cao: Very nice run last start at Flemington in G3 company 2nd to Aspect. Looks an improving type that will take a lot out of that run and is well rated here over 1000m. Good barrier and suited by pattern.
2. Kedleston: Will be pushing forward today from barrier 5. Nice enough run in listed grade first up behind some decent types but certainly has to improve to beat Cao Cao on exposed form.
3. Bandipur: Trial winner for the O’Shea camp. McDonald road that trial which is important to note on the 7th of November, staying down here after the Carnival to do that. Williams picks up the ride with McDonald stepping down. barrier certainly an issue but that was a very nice trial win.
4. Blackwolf Run: Market only guide
5. Rocketcod: Market only guide
6. Sircconi: Fast time trial win over 800m and Winkers go on. Good barrier in 6 today.
7. Star Search: Market only guide
8. Tarima: Beaten in Maiden class firs tup and ran much better last start over the 1000m in G3 behind Cao Cao when fairly beaten 1.25L on the day. Has to improve. Will be just off the speed from barrier 1.
9. No Reward: Market only guide
10. Windsor: Market only guide
Comments: Not a race I want to be playing in, but it certainly is hard to see Cao Cao not measuring up here against this lot.
Confidence 40%
Strategy: Cao Cao to win.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1000m – MSC Signs Handicap
1. Estaminet: Very strong run first up in harder company when 2nd behind Gun Case. Good win last start at course and distance in similar class beating a nice type in Lady Esprit. Expecting her to be ridden back from the barrier in the small field from the barrier if she doesn’t jump first. Will have every chance at the weights.
2. Chiavari: Very good horse that never runs poorly first up. Goes well at this track and is well in here in this class. Will appreciate the tempo being on and looks well suited. Big chance.
3. Petite’s Reward: 3YO-F winner at course and distance from start to finish two runs back before failing behind Gun Case in easier grade than this. Best runs in the past have been in easier grade and the best was on a sky track. Win wouldn’t shock but has to improve first up.
4. Solar Duchess: Only goes fair first up but she has run twice over 1000m at this track for two wins. Never measured up to this grade but a win wouldn’t totally shock here. Will be last coming to the turn.
6. Lyuba: Lightly raced Weir horse. First step up to open grade after wins in 3YO fillies grade. Well enough in at the weights if she has improved onwards when spelling. May be wanting further to find her best?
7. Very Choosy: 3YO-LR 2.3L 6th behind Don’t Doubt Mamma last start. BM-70 winner at course over 955 the previous start. Hasn’t been seen in several months though. On speed today. Hard to suggest she can’t win, but did finish last prep off lameness issues.
8. Steam Ahead: BM-64 winner two back but well beaten last start. Tough horse to follow… did run 2L off Petits Filous on a soft track at course and distance.
Comments: This race gets tougher the longer you look at it. Almost every runner has a claim in this race. I really feel Chiavari has the class at the weights to sit just off them and sprint past them all late.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Chiavari E/W
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1200m – Art Series Hotel Group Handicap
2. Hellbound: Very nice lead in run for this today after a solid 3rd first up behind Speedeor. Wide barrier and is expected to be going back, but i’d expect Callow to try and slot in midfield and be happy to sit 3-wide the trip if needed hoping for cover. Looks a huge price back to this level of race today on a track that will suit.
3. Styleman: Obviously showed his class in maiden grade winning well at Pakenham first up but then was disappointing last start at Flemington over the 1400m. Back to 1200m and will push forward for a 1 out 1 back run.
4. Tris: Group 3 winner as a 2YO. Her last two runs have been well below what is needed to win this today. Back in class but has to improve. Will be on speed.
5. Widgee Turf: Maiden winner in ‘okay’ enough time last start in a high paying race on a soft track. Has ability but has to be very good to win this. Awkward barrier.
6. Wise Hero: Another maiden winner, didn’t have to beat too much at Moe but was a good win. Will be on speed.
7. Go Public: Maiden winner last start after a fair run 2nd the previous go at Cranbourne. Well up in grade here though and clearly needs to improve. On breeding needs further.
8. Vegas Strip: BM-64 winner in okay enough effort last start in country grade racing. Sit just off the speed id imagine from the barrier.
9. Angharad: Three poor to average runs in a row. Hard to suggest the improvement needed even back in class here.
10. What A Shock: Maiden winner finally last start and only just got it. Hard to suggest.
11. Run Gypsy Run: Nice enough type going through the grades. Fairly beaten the last two starts at course and similar distances. Barrier means she will be on speed but probably 1 back the rail and will be sweating on a run at critical stages. Low weight.
Comments: I’m all over Hellbound here after a very solid first up run at Flemington. Up to 1200m will be very well suited and his last run was more than good enough to take care of these especially with Speedeor franking the form since.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Hellbound – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $8.00/$2.50
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1600m – Simpson Construction Handicap
1. Carlo Bugatti: Hugely disappointing run first up in harder class at Flemington last start. Just have to forgive the run and believe the horse is much better than what we saw that day based on previous runs. Interesting that they stay at the 1600m also. Maps to get caught 3-wide the trip without a good ride from the apprentice.
2. Renew: Doesn’t go very well first up and clearly needs further.
3. Un de Sceaux: Ran very well last start at big odds 3rd behind Redkirk Warrior in a Group 3 grade race. Huge step back to BM-78 here… while up in weight, finds himself in a nice race from a good barrier.
4. Black Sheep: Continues to be nicely placed by the Weir stable into the right races. Another step up in class here and has to improve again.
5. Flying Light: Fairly beaten favourite last start from on speed at Geelong. In the past previously best runs have been over 2000m+. Has to improve again.
6. Gilchrist: Ignore first up. Looking for much further than this today. Place at best?
7. Our Bazaar: Irish import that measured up at 2400m distances but also 1800m. First up over 1600m while probably a bit too short, actually looks to be a nice race for this 6YO. Feels like now or never this prep and a win won’t shock one bit.
8. Aurum Spirit: Good run in easier grade two back at Pakenham but outclassed last start in harder. Steps back in grade… poor barrier.. will be going back.
9. Life of Reilly: BM-78 grade 3rd last start behind Entre Nous. Has to find about 1.5l lengths today to be in contention. Nice enough barrier.
10. Forthefunofit: BM-64 grade winner two back but fairly beaten last start in easier grade. Hard to suggest here.
11. Amber Cavalier: Hasn’t won in the past five runs in similar grades of races and looks well outmatched here on those form lines.
Comments: A tough race on paper, i’m not convinced I could play Flying Light or Black Sheep at the prices and Un de Sceaux is certainly up alot in weight. Carlo Bugatti returning to his best form lines could sit 3-wide the trip with the weight and still win, but he has to return to that form.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Carlo Bugatti E/W
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1600m – Ranvet Handicap
1. Vital Importance: Strong win first up over 1400m at Sale on a heavy track. Too far back at Sandown last start but ran poorly in the end well up in grade. Ignore last start, has the ability to win.
2. Beluga Blue: Two starts for two wins this prep over in Adelaide. Comes over to Melbourne and she looks well in here up to 1600m. Maps back about midfield. Big chance.
3. Ample On Offa: Fairly beaten last start by Beluga Blue. Good win previous start. Questionable over the extra distance but nice barrier and mapping.
4. Catch That Cat: Hasn’t won in four preps. Goes well at this track but three runs this prep suggests the win isn’t coming this prep.
5. Dulverton: Disappointing last start. Two previous runs suggested she was going well enough to figure in a better race. Well back in class to where she was competitive at course and distance and will be suited by the track patterns. Nicely in.
6. Payroll: 7 length winner last start in CL1 company. 3rd behind Daniela Rosa the previous start in 3YOF grade on soft. Back to firm ground found extra legs and looks to have gone on with it all this prep. Big chance.
8. Fair and Equitable: Nice enough return first up but wasn’t beaten by too much. Clearly has to improve today.. never won in this class an issue.
9. Lopartega: BM-70 winner only just last start. Step up in grade again and out of comfort zone. Does run well at this track and on good surfaces.
10. Miles of Krishan: Fairly beaten last start up in grade. Two previous runs were nice wins… never measured up at this distance in the past but does get it. Good barrier.
11. Violent Snow: Horrible last start at Flemington off a very nice win at course and distance. Has to improve but has ability.
12. Hell or Highwater: Too high a weight last start at Flemington and better suited back to a turning track today. Maps awkwardly from the barrier.
13. Vandancer: Won 3 of her last 5 and won first up this prep. Up in distance looks even better suited and she looks a nice horse.
14. Ashlee Marie: Group horse over much further. Hard to have 2nd up over this distance.
15. Choux Diva: FMB-78 winner last prep over much further. Well beaten first up. Not for me.
16. Wichita Woman: Couldn’t place in a CL1 last start. No.
Comments: Wide open race with several form lines heading into one here. Payroll clearly is a Group horse but it’s very hard to be confident enough to be on at a similar price to last start up to this grade. Vital Importance looks a nice price while Dulverton should be coming hard late also.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6, 10, 12, 13
Strategy: Payroll to win.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 2040m – 1Print Handicap
1. Hale Soriano: Two runs this prep for no result. French Import with top class ability over further. Needs another run and needs to get up to over 2400-2800+.
2. High Church: Stormed home late last start in a very good run at Sandown. Ready to win and expected to push forward from the barrier.
3. Shamkiyr: Has been running much better the past three runs but has been fairly beaten on all three occasions. Hard to see how that turns around here today even from a positive barrier.
4. Survived: Got a country cup last prep and didn’t run well after that. Short break and actually ran well in similar grade last start beaten 2.6L by Boom Time at Flemington. Up in distance will suit… win wouldn’t be a total shock but clearly has to improve onwards.
5. Boom Time: Out the back last start and stormed home for a dominating win at Flemington last start. Up to 2000m should suit even better today as well based on previous preps. Barrier an issue with Williams onboard as there is every chance he ends up 3-wide the trip. That being said, he will be suited by the way the track plays today and he has the ability to storm past the lot of them when it counts.
6. Freshwater Storm: Looking for a strong tempo in running and gets it today. Ignore last start and two back runs where the tempos were just not suited. Stepping back in class again today and will be another coming late. Can win.
7. Master Zephyr: Every chance the past three starts and found a few too good on every occasion. Hard to see him turning the tables on Little White Cloud today.
8. Little White Cloud: Huge, strong win last start at Flemington in a very nice time! Query over him being suited by the short turning track today but we know he wants a strong tempo and there is every chance Katie pushes the tempo if they aren’t going all that fast. A main contender.
9. Hipparchus: Well backed favourite last start at Flemington and got slightly further back than expected.. finishing off nicely for 3rd. Can improve on that position today much better weighted. Good barrier.
10. Encosta Line: Been running well all prep and back in class last start got a fairly painless win at Sandown. Big step up in class again but well enough in at the weights and maps well.
11. Nisos: Ignore last start when ran poorly. Two back run was very good and more than good enough to be a factor here.
12. Patch Adams: Gone close the last two starts as favourite in country cups but found one or two too good on each occasion. Up to 2040m again today. Hard to judge back to this class but does look to be competitive.
14. Sun Disk: Couldn’t touch him.. 3000m back to 2000m and hasn’t ever win in grade.
Comments: Another wide open race with several key chances. I have to take on Little White Cloud today at the prices – we got the cash last start and it’s time to jump off. Boom Time looks the horse with the most upside along with High Church. Freshwater Storm goes around a stupid price with the speed expected to be on.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
Strategy: Boom Time to win. Smaller bet Freshwater Storm.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1000m – Montmorency FC Handicap
1. Dan Zephyr: Good win last start over Mighty Like out in the country in similar grade but over much further. Big step back in distance and may just be run off his feet. Certainly can’t just be taken on lightly but I don’t like him here first time at the track.
2. General Truce: Shown nothing the past few runs and hasn’t won at this track in yonks. Not going well enough in my opinion to consider.
3. Straturbo: Goes well first up. Strong win last prep over 1050m at Doomben on the record in a solid time. Good barrier and nice type.
4. Beau Rada: Loves Moonee Valley but even so this looks a tough ask first up. Has to be at his very best to be beating all of these today – has the ability to do so.
5. Sirbible: Massive win first up from start to finish just running them off their feet. Barrier 15 he will push forward and try and do similar today. May very well just do that.
6. Vezalay: Had her chance the last three starts and hasn’t been able to get close to a win with the right runs. Back in class slightly but stays at 1000m. Never won at track a concern.. Has to find an extra length today to win. Will be in it.
7. Bullpit: Three runs this prep and well below what he showed last prep. Best has been seen down the straight lately. Take on.
8. Hard Romp: Very good type down the straight the last two preps. Never won at this track from 10 starts but has gone within 0.1L of a win. Goes well enough first up. Tough ask.
9. Shakespearean Lass: Failed to place all three runs last prep and never won first up in the past. Has won at track and in this class in the past but that is a while ago. Maps nicely.
11. Rock ‘n’ Gold: Good win three back in much easier grade of race over 955m. Ran well 3rd behind Husson Eagle over the 1000m last start in similar grade. Win wouldn’t shock but needs luck in running.
12. Runsati: Horrible run first up down the straight at Flemington. Hard to suggest here based on first up run. Need to see him run here.
13. Stellar Collision: Weir runner. 3Y-SWP winner over Demonstrate at course over 1200m before failing on wetter tracks the next two starts. Nice type.
14. Sunday Escape: Put the writing on the wall three back but ran horrible both runs since. Take on.
15. Lucky Symbol: Struggle to suggest up to this grade first up.
Comments: Another tough race in the Quaddie leg. Sirbible will be hard to run down from out front. Rock ‘n’ Gold will be trying to do that late from the back while Vezalay and Straturbo will be positioning just off the speed to do it also. Stellar Collision is obviously a good horse but hard to tell how it comes back here today.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 11, 13
Strategy: Back both Straturbo and Vezelay
Moonee Valley Race 9 – 1200m – William Hill Handicap
3. Kievann: Likes this track and goes well here. Also goes fairly well first up. 2.8L 3rd last prep vehind Voodoo Lad is a very nice form line to bring into this. Goes well on good tracks and looks well in.
4. The New Boy: Old mate is consistent as the day is long but he has never won over 1200m ever and 6 runs for 0 placing at the track. Hard to suggest, needs further.
5. Written Up: Will be going back. First up in country grade was beaten. Hard to see finding the return to form needed.
7. Star Fortune: Strong win first up over 1200m. It was a very classy win. Won’t lead today I imagine and maps perfectly. Big chance.
8. Bradman: Good win two back at Flemington over the 1400m on a soft track. Back to dryer today and first time at the track ever a concern. Goes okay at the distance but better over further.
9. Chase the Horizon: Very nice type of horse. Good runs this prep including two solid wins including one over Duibio two back which has had the form franked. Ran horrible last start… just ignore and rate on his best runs.
11. Hard Call: First up today and never won first up. Better over further on past runs is the big concern.
12. King’s Command: Won three in a row last prep going through the grades and up in distance. Can run well first up over the 1200m but clearly has to be at his best.
13. Nordic Empire: His best has always been good enough but has shown nothing the past two preps. Hard to have.
14. Cana: Got the win last start at Rosehill in similar grade of race. Has the ability and rates well from the barrier.
15. Brockhoff: Poor run last start at Sandown. Back in class and up in distance. Hard horse to catch but barrier helps today. Goes well at MV.
Comments: Interesting race to finish the day. Slight lean in a competitive race to Star Fortune.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 7, 9, 12, 14
Strategy: Star Fortune E/W
Ascot Race 8 – 1200m – Winterbottom Stakes
1. Terravista: Returned with a very fair effort in the Listed race down the straight over 1000m first up. He clearly improves up to this distance on past runs and certainly looks well in, but he couldn’t get past Redzel that day, but does look well in from the barrier in 5. Would want him to be no worse than midfield today. Has to be at his best and while the first up run was good, he has to improve.
2. Malaguerra: Inside barrier which for mine isn’t the ideal spot to be with the rail at Ascot claiming many a victim never getting out for a run. Will be just off the speed and is clearly a top chance on the previous G1 win and G2 second the run previous.
3. Takedown: Nice run 2nd behind Voodoo Lad two back at Caulfield and two strong G2 wins in ar ow below that. Fairly beaten by better types last start in the Chatham Stakes off a brutal tempo set from on speed and was still a very good run. Back to 1200m looks ideal but he does have to prove himself at the top level back to this distance. Maps nicely enough from Barrier 8 going forward today. A win wouldn’t be a total shock, but he clearly has improvement to show.
4. Rock Magic: Three solid runs heading into this. Barrier 9 of 11 last start was the only reason he got beat and the sectionals suggest he is absolutely flying. Should have won by lengths last start and is perfectly set for this. From the very positive barrier 3 i’m expecting him to get a spot midfield at worst 1 off the rails and to be pulled 3-wide at least from the 600m to give him every chance to wind up and go past them late. Big price and clearly the top chance of the locals.
5. Keen Array: Solid enough wins at Caulfield in listed company before 4th and 7th in Group company fairly beaten on both occasions. Blinkers on and maps nicely from barrier 4. Will need to improve form wise.
6. First Among Equals: Proven sprinter last prep with wins over Rock Magic, but finds himself worse in at the weights today and coming off a defeat to Rock Magic and two failures behind Rock Magic after that. Barrier is a big negative today also.
7. Battle Hero: Fairly beaten both starts this prep over the sprint distances. Last prep did score in the G3 Roma Cup but did find a few too good the rest of the prep. Clearly has to improve and find another gear to win this.
8. Vega Magic: Unlucky first up when never got a run in the Prince of Wales before last start sitting on speed getting 3.5kg on Rock Magic that day and just holding him off. Good barrier again today and will be on speed or 1 back the rails i’d imagine. Has ability but not very well weighted today.
9. Regal Commander: Two runs in this prep and beaten fairly on both occasions. Not the worst barrier today from 7 and will be sitting back to midfield today. One to take on.
10. State Solicitor: Won 6 runs in a row having been very well placed on every occasion. Looks a strong sprinter but also may be better over further. This is the testing material and it looks a very tough task from barrier 11.
11. Sheidel: Two solid Group 3 wins heading into this today before running 5th in the Darley Classic last start after leading them down the straight into the headwind. Was a very brave effort but she clearly found a few too good on the day including Fell Swoop who had a similar run. Has to find a length or two at least today.
12. Military Reign: Well beaten first up from an on speed position in easier company. Listed winner on a soft track to end last prep and best runs have been with the sting out. Clearly a step below these unless it pours.
Comments: The market has this down to just a few runners and I believe that’s how this race is panning out. Terravista, Malaguerra, Rock Magic and Takedown are the clear top rated runners in this race today. From the very strong barrier draw, Rock Magic is the pick of the race on my ratings at the prices on offer. Malaguerra is the horse to beat.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Rock Magic – 2 units Each-Way @ $11/$3.20
