Welcome to The Profits form guide for 3 September 2016 for Moonee Valley for Dato day! The rail moves out to the 3m which is one of two of our most profitable rail positions at this track. There are several quality races worth betting into today which is always a positive. A clear standout on the card early in the day and we really want to get back on track after two plain weeks in a row. The Quaddie gave us something back last week… and this week’s looks harder than any i’ve seen in a while, but there are several $50+ chances included for correct reasons. As always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 1 – Kaniana – 5 units @ $3.30 to win
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 – Miss Rose de Lago – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.70
Best Value Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 – Whispering Brook – 1 unit Each-Way @ $9.50/$3.40
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 8, 11, 13, 16
Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 11, 12, 13
Leg Three: 1, 4, 10, 12, 15
Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 9, 10, 13, 14
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1600m – William Hill Handicap
1. Nigelissima: Concussion plates on. First run in Australia. G2 placed in Heavy over 1600m last prep. Does look quite well suited at the weights back to this grade but doesn’t have a great dry track form.
2. Baby Don’t Cry: Will go forward from the wide barrier and attempt to win from the front. Up in grade again today after two close finishes heading into this and up to 1600m… never competed at this distance a big issue.
3. Kaniana: Awkward barrier is the only negative for this talented Weir yard runner. Smashed a good field last start in similar grade and she looks very well in again today. Hard to ignore.
4. Elusive Catch: Expect her to be out the back today and running on. 9 runs this prep (two in Melbourne since change of stable). Best run was four back at Ipswich in the listed grade race when running 2nd… but hasn’t shown anything good enough since…. is back in grade today though and up to 1600m.
5. Choice: Blinkers on a big positive. Not sure what’s happened between preps but she certainly hasn’t come back the same horse. May simply be wanting it wetter? Will be sitting off the leaders from the barrier.
6. To Be Honest: Six runs this prep for a best placing 3rd in much easier grade. Last start was very poor and I can’t see her going close today.
7. Dulverton: Nice enough win four back in 3YO grade.. three runs since have had merit especially last start when out the back flying home missing. Has to be respected but her best was clearly on wetter than this.
8. Champagne Cocktail: Expected to go forward from the barrier, she ran a nice race to win at Pakenham last start in much easier grade. This is the true test and i’m not convinced she is better than a place.
9. Bonnie Belle: Won two of her last three. Goes well on all track conditions. Up in grade again today but comes in well at the weights from the barrier.
10. Takeover: Never far off a win the past two starts with a 4th and 3rd in similar grade. Has to improve onwards and upwards again from a forward barrier.
Comments: Very keen today on Kaniana to repeat the strong performance we saw last start. The price is well over my rated odds as well taking the horse to being close to my best for the day.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Kaniana for 5 units @ $3.30
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1600m – 1Print Craig Opie Cup
1. Foundry: Last win was three preps back over 1400m at Flemington. Since then has failed to find form outside of a 3rd behind Silverball in a 2000m race at Rosehill. Hard to suggest even off an okay map.
2. Observational: Was touted to be flying last Spring but only had the one run. Went around in Autumn and ran some solid races over 2000m+ but was never measuring up at the top level. 1600m first up… won the Golden Mile in similar conditions last time out. Will be out the back running on.
3. Manndawi: Beaten 5L in the Geelong Cup last prep when first came out here.. but still ran 3rd. Last prep over the Autumn failed to get a result better than 6th beaten 4.3L. Too short to find his best.
4. Rugged Cross: Old mate doesn’t win out of turn. Last win was on a Heavy track and the last two runs have seen him beaten 8.4L and 8.5L.
5. Raw Impulse: Clearly has ability winning BM78 and BM-90 grade races leading into the brand final last prep wen fairly beaten by Ecuador as a $1.60 favourite on a soft 5 track. Was good beating Golden Mane by 2.75L over the 2000m, but for a horse better suited over further than 1600m… mapping out the back, the horse is rock bottom odds today conmsidering he has never won in this class.
6. Shamkiyr: Gelded since his last run. Maiden winner before running 3L 2nd to The Grey Gatsby over 2100m over in France two preps back. Been 483 days between runs a huge question here especially when best runs in the past were over 2000m+.
7. Master Zephyr: Maps to sit off the speed today from an inside barrier. Ran nicely enough last start at course and similar distance when fairly beaten 3.2L. Has to improve.
8. Mihany: One of two key runners that map to go forward today from their respective outside barriers. Won a BM-78 four runs back at Flemington and has failed to get a win the last two runs on wetter tracks. Back to a dry track is ideal and he has been running well.
9. Sadaqa: Last prep was able to score a 1600m win in similar class range at Caulfield with a low weight. Dunn onboard today and the past few runs stear me away from him here today, but I do think he is a chance of winning.
10. Last Wish: Going through the grades last prep, his best runs were over much further than this.
Comments: I can’t see the speed in this race as would be hoped by quite a few getting back worse than midfield. Mihany will have this race at his feet with a crawl set out front and a 400m sprint on a track that should be playing to give leaders every possible chance.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Mihany E/W
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1514m – Quest Moonee Valley Handicap
1. Hey Doc: First up won very well at Sandown getting past Perfectly Safe and gapping the rest of the field in an easier grade race than this. 57.5kg after claims today the only negative is the barrier – but on mapping I have him jumping well and getting the 1/1 spot if all goes well. Big chance.
2. Havildar: 4th run in this prep and a huge step up in class. Maiden winner two back but failed to find the line well enough last start at Sandown. Others preferred.
3. Lord Macau: Got a maiden win first up at Warwick Farm before failing to get home well enough at Rosehill the next start. Last start led but was run down at Rosehill with every chance on speed. Expect to lead again today and in harder grade.
4. Benny Goes Berzerk: Weir horse. Ran home very well at Flemington behind Zunbaqa for 2nd last start coming off heavy track runs. Looks a nice type of horse and very much untapped. Blinkers on a big positive.
5. Northern Lion: Maps nicely from the middle draw to sit midfield or further forward if they desire. Nice enough win at Geelong and a big gap to third… clearly has potential but does need to improve.
6. Sunday Pray: Pakenham win two back over 1200m in a maiden, but last start failed to finish off the race on a soft 7. Step up to 1500m is really an unknown.
7. Brookwater: Looked potentially a very nice type in first prep. This prep came back winning a trial before two 4ths in easier races than this. Not enough excuses to consider.
8. Congressional: Beaten favourite last start at Bendigo coming off an only average Synthetic win a as maiden. Big step up in grade once again and I couldn’t justify backing him.
9. Junior Burger: Maiden winner first up before beaten 5L+ at last two starts on softer tracks. Better on good, but the rating out of the Geelong run really wasn’t top class.
10. Larrikin: Won his maiden and has had a freshen up between then and now with a maiden run. Looks a very progressive type to be.
11. Ontoff Ofthe World: Heavy track winner last start after being well beaten in maiden grade at Geelong the previous start. Clearly needs to improve and prove everything here.
12. Rocketeer: Won last start at Wang in a maiden by a lazy 4 lengths. Looks a nice type back over distances and up to 1514m suitable from barrier and weight. Live chance.
13. Tara Iti: Couldn’t win a maiden first up when running home nicely. Has to improve.
Comments: Just the one standout in this race in Hey Doc. Has the class edge and maps a dream as long as given a good ride to get over for a slot.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Hey Doc E/W
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1514m – United Refrigeration Handicap
1. Zahspeed: Has a lot of speed in his legs and should be able to get the lead from the barrier. If something inside kicks up, will at least get the spot outside of leader. Last prep was not fit enough first up to hold off the swoopers but went on to win 3 of his next 5 and two places in the other races. This is a little short of his best distance range – gets in okay at the weights with the claim.
2. Mr Individual: Led last start at Caulfield on a day when those just off the speed were well suited. Was grabbed late in the peice and was a solid run with the time run in the race considering the overall slow times for the day. Up to 1514m today no issue for mine either. Barrier is the main issue.. will have to push hard early to get a spot.
3. The Bandit: Pushed up over 3200m last prep to run 2nd in the Ramsden. Did win last prep over 1800m. Just simply too short to find his very best.
4. Hokkaido: Two runs this prep for 4.3L and 5.2L defeats in easier races than this at Caulfield. His best runs of the last few preps would be good enough to measure up, but they were much deeper into the preps.
5. Oscar’s my Mate Pa: last two wins were on heavy tracks at Sandown. Been running well enough the last two starts but fairly beaten in both starts. This is as hard today even at the weights on a dryer track.
6. Moss ‘n’ Dale: Nice win at Sandown almost a month between runs today. Beat Grand Dreamer that day fairly from an on speed position and Grand Dreamer has well and truly gone onwards and upwards since. Might appreciate a wetter track more is the only issue?
7. New York: Old mate is now a 9YO and won two runs in a row to start the prep on soft and heavy tracks before being well defeated last start. Clearly has to improve.
8. Steggler: Boxed on first up at Moonee Valley for a respectable 6th. The feeling is he doesn’t go a yard in the wet tracks he was finding back home. Best runs including a win at Ascot were seen over similar distances on Good tracks. Forgive first start.
9. Storm Approach: Been winning races on the wetter tracks. Well up in class again here today but he certainly isn’t exactly out of his comfort zone. A win would be a bit of a shock though today.
10. Vostok: Would be surprised if he has found his way out of the Cranbourne racecourse after last start when blocked and blocked and blocked for runs. Stackhouse gets the flick and D Oliver onboard today. Maps VERY well from the barrier to sit off the rail.
11. Wheatsheaf Flyer: Eye-catching run from the back last start. From the barrier it would be great to see them push further forward today with him, but i’m not exactly sure they will be doing that. I’m sure they won’t be back last today though from the barrier and I have to give him a real winning chance.
12. Living Large: Run well the last four races with places or wins. Last start win was certainly a good win in much easier grade, but you can only beat what’s put infront of you. Barrier gies him a live chance.
13. Twisting Typhoon: Hasn’t won in a long time. Fairly beaten every run this prep.
Comments: Mr Individual, Moss ‘n’ Dale, Stegglar, Vostok and Wheatsheaf Flyer are my shortlisted horses in this race. At the price from the barrier, I have to take on Mr Individual today. I’m sure Moss ‘n’ Dale is a nice horse, but i’m not overly convinced his very best form can be found on a firm track. Vostok gets the run of the race and D Oliver won’t be letting us down today and goes up the top pick at a very respectable price. Steggler probably justifies a bet but I just can’t today. Wheasheaf Flyer on the other hand from barrier 4 deserves a bet at the double figure odds, well over the correct rated odds.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Vostok for 1 unit @ $4.20 to win. Wheatsheaf Flyer for 0.35 units @ $14 to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1000m – Mitty’s Racing Colours McEwen Stakes
1. Iconic: Ignore the first up run for mine. Expect him to be more forward today on a firmer track even from the barrier. Respect that he is going much better than that first up run suggested.
2. Furnaces: Two very solid trials heading into this today. Last prep showed his potential with a strong win at Hawksbury. Has to go on with it this prep but obviously has class. Barrier 3 ideal.
3. Reldas: The 1000m really is just a bit too short for him to find his very best based on everything we know from the past. I have to take him on.
4. O’Malley: Ran into the race last start very well coming wide from well back. Barrier 6 today will see him sit further forward but still close to the back. Will need to get over what the expected bias will be and run a career peak.
5. Sheidel: Group 1 2nd in the Sangster by 0.1L last prep after winning a hotly contested Listed race beating home Under The Louvre. Was certainly well weighted that last prep but she is the real deal. Has come back a picture and trialed well heading into this. Tricky barrier but will be pushing forward.
6. Wild Rain: WFA-G3 winner first up over the 1100m after a gun trial leading into the race. Not only won well but won by 1.75 lengths. Expect her to have gone onwards and upwards here and finds herself well in at the weights again from a dream barrier. Will be stalking the leader most likely if crossed and every possible chance.
7. Alpha Miss: Group 2 winner last prep but it was the lowest Group 2 race you will see in some time. Hard to suggest here.
8. Heatherly: I’m not convinced she was 100% fit last start with the way she finished off the race. She did certainly go early and got away from them, but she didn’t have much left late. Big disadvantage from the barrier today though.. i’m not convinced she deserves to be the price on offer.
9. Shakespearean Lass: Very disappointing run first up when led and weakened very quickly out of the race. Not in this grade for mine.
10. Chloe in Paris: This girl has a lot of class and is a potential star at her best. 5th behind Sweet Idea in the Galaxy Group 1 but hasn’t been seen for over 500 days. two trials coming into this today and D Oliver keeps the ride.
Comments: Heatherly is well under the odds for mine today. I would much rather take Wild Rain and Sheidel to win at higher odds if either of them come in than what Heatherly is paying. Iconic is the value in the race.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back both Wild Rain & Sheidel to win equal amounts and have a very small spec bet on Iconic.
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1200m – Mitchelton Wines Atlantic Jewel Stakes
1. Whispering Brook: 5 runs for 5 wins over in the west. Group 3/2 winner over in the wet. Can lead or take a sit and 1200-1400 is her ideal distance. Very much a top quality filly and trialled well coming into this. Hard to beat. Barrier only issue but will push forward as expected.
2. I Am A Star: The name is correct, she is a very good type. Stormed home first up to claim a classy field. Barrier means she goes well back in run. Has to be that good again to win this.
3. Sword of Light: Continues to run well without winning. She is going well this prep and they have new tuned up well. Personally feel she is better back to the 1000m.
4. Zamzam: Ran fine first up but found a few too good. Harder race today and i’m not convinced she is up to beating all of these home on that run.
5. Sweet Sherry: Flew home late to claim the win after being ridden for luck. Dryer track today shouldn’t be any issue and she is certainly going well… and maps a dream from barrier 4. Consider.
6. She’s Positive: Nice enough run last start when wide no cover running 7th. A softer run today would be ideal but she did get another tricky barrier again. Need to improve onwards and upwards.
7. Selenia: Poor barrier today. Solid enough run last start at Caulfield first up. Similar grade today.. has to find a length or two today to be a winning hope.
8. Oregon’s Day: Hard to ignore the fact she has top level ability. Wide no cover last start and won very well beating a form horse in Highland Beat. Barrier is fine also. Big chance.
9. Sebring Dream: Maps to get a nice enough run off the speed today. Fairly beaten by I Am a Star over 1100m last prep before jumping up to a more suitable 1400m and winning very well. Has ability and will be getting a nice spot from barrier 2, but i’m not convinced 1200m is suitable in this grade.
10. Gretna: Easy enough win first up this prep in much easier grade. Previous preps she measured up to city class but not the top class. Has to improve here.
11. Merriest: Another that looked a good type on first prep form. Last start was simply a forgive run where I think she could have gone very close to winning if found luck. Maps much better today and looks a big chance.
12. Inspired Estelle: Nice trial heading into this today to give confidence. Last prep well beaten in a maiden before winning a 2YF Handicap at Sandown very well. Hard to ignore her.
13. Anthena Lass: Good heavy track win at course over 1000m first up and then ran a very respectable 0.3L 3rd beaten by I Am a Star late. Will be on speed today and very hard to run down.
14. Tan Tat Beauty: 3-wide last start but had cover. Ran very well and just missed with Sweet Sherry taking the win late. Dryer track no issues today.
15. Beattyrae Ruby: Couldn’t win first up in maiden grade. Others preferred.
16. Piccadillies: First run here.. meant to be a very good type and trialed well… but has been scratched a few times suggesting issues. Barrier is good.
Comments: Certainly a hard race to be overly confident in any runner, but it’s impossible for me to pass up the huge value on offer today with Whispering Brook. This horse is proven to be the real deal and even with the wide barrier maps to get every possible chance today.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 8, 11, 13, 16
Strategy: Whispering Brook for 1 unit each-Way @ $9.50/$3.40
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1200m – SAJ Fruit Supply Stakes
1. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Should have bolted in last start when held up for runs at critical stages (400m-150m). Similar grade of race again today and Walker takes the ride off Dunn. Barrier 15 will see him go back and run home well.
2. Iggimacool: Came back very well in the Winter going bang bang to win a lazy 130k for owners over the 1400-1600m distances. Hard to see the same turn of foot required over 1200m first up.
3. Voodoo Lad: Nice enough win last start at Caulfield when gapped 2nd and 3rd. Of course, Fast N Rocking was held up for runs as an excuse. Maps super well again today from barrier 4.
4. Keen Array: Suffered Colic at the track before being scratched trying to have his first run this prep. Was horrible last prep but the word is he can return to his best today. Nice enough barrier to find a position and can run well.
5. Passing Shot: Led and gone a long way out last start. Form from NZ shows he is a much better horse than what was produced last start. Ignore the run and give another chance today leading.
7. Le Bonsir: Loves this track. Ignore last start when was a very good run wide no cover. More forward today and can run well.
8. Rough Justice: two runs this prep and fairly beaten both starts. Huge step up in grade and while he goes enjoy this track, i’m struggling to suggest the win here off last two runs.
9. Tudor: Been scratched a few times which is a bit of a concern, but we know his trials before the Monash were solid. Out the back in that race when never a chance and expect him further forward today.
10. Taddei Tondo: Doesn’t win out of turn and it’s a few preps since the last win. Trhee runs this prep and hasn’t got within 1L of a win, and that was in easier company.
11. Handstone Tycoon: This is the form horse coming down from Darwin/Alice Springs with 6 wins in a row on record over 1000-1200m. Comes into this with 54kg and has to be considered a very solid chance.
12. Fast Cash: Blinkers first time! Good run 2nd from last when storming home last start. Dryer track today the only difference. Two runs this prep have been brilliant. Will get far back again today.
13. Rich Jack: Ran a very nice race last start on the unsuitable soft track. Back to a firm track today. Will push forward from the nice barrier today and could surprise with a very solid run.
14. Sebring Sun: Hit the lead last start when came from a long way back but was claimed late in the piece. Will be better for the run and back to dryer here. Good barrier.
15. Well Sprung: Only run back first up this prep had a bit of late market support but ran horrible. Hard to suggest.
Comments: This is a race where you can’t really put a bet on until you know how the tempo of the day is working out. Fast N Rocking looks a massive price if the swoopers are suited later in the day, while Fast Cash would also attract a bet. But if those out front are having their way with it, then Passing Shot, Rich Jack and Handsome Tycoon all look attractive at the odds.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 11, 12, 13
Strategy: Back both Fast ‘n’ Rocking & Handsome Tycoon
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1600m – Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes
1. Tosen Stardom: Handles all types of surfaces. Coming off a bleed. By all reports has been working very well at home and gets John Allen onboard today who is riding well currently. Has been backed in this and futures markets for the cox plate and maps to get a nice spot from barrier 5.
2. The United States: Group 1 winner last prep over slightly further (2000m) and also 2nd in the Queen Elizabeth. Hasn’t scored a win over this distance in the past at this level but has certainly gone close. Will be out the back running on from an awkward barrier.
3. The Cleaner: Horrible run first up in the Lawrence Stakes when 3.5L 11th after going around at a strong tempo. Ran significantly below his best from the past and previous preps have suggested he needs to train on into the prep to get his very best. Will be pushing forward and leading at the track he has won 5 from 9… and gets the rail to suit. Has to improve today.
4. Jacquinot Bay: Rock hard fit last start when 0.5L 2nd to Miss Rose de Lago in the Lawrence Stakes over 1400m in what was a tough staying test. Up to 1600m today but never really tested at this track in the past a big concern. Maps a dream from barrier 3 to find out.. value place runner? Add value to the F4 thats for sure.
5. Signoff: Talented horse that finds his very best over 2400m+. Will be going back even from the inside barrier today and will be looking to finish off well.
6. Excess Knowledge: Comes into this with a solid enough trial under his belt. 7th last year in the Melbourne Cup. Certainly has a turn of foot to be competitive over 1600m, but i’m not so sure in this class targeted at another Melb Cup. Coming off a lameness issue in the Autumn also.
7. Awesome Rock: I thought his run was better than the placing suggests first up. Will improve onwards for the run but does look to be wanting 2000m+ to find his very best and a few more runs of fitness. Barrier obviously helps.
8. Mahuta: Every possible chance last start in the Memsie and simply no match. Up to 1600m today certainly a concern knowing how much pace will be in the race, but he will find the line as he always does, i’m not convinced he is a winning chance though.
9. Tavago: Concussion Plates first time a big no no. Best runs in the past have all been over much further. Can run well but expect he will be run off his feet.
10. Suavito: Further back than expected first up and never really a chance with the pace set. Can run well with the run under his belt and blinkers back on, but clearly has to find more today.
11. Real Love: Got two Group 3 wins last prep over the 2000m but those races showed a bit of a limitation with the horse being more a plodder than having a turn of foot to put a race away in seconds. Will be fit off a small break… will need further than this.
12. Miss Rose de Lago: Visitors draw today… but she is a type who always seems to jump well and has the early tactical speed so i’m not too worried. Until last start where she sat off the leaders, I’m expecting her to get a spot outside The Cleaner from the barrier. If The Cleaner overraces, she may again find a slot behind him. Last start proved she was rock hard fit and ready to roll and she will only improve onwards at course and distance. Her highest rated run from the past was at this course over this distance on a Good 3 track…. rails out 3 will be suiting on speed all day also.
13. Set Square: Nice enough return ‘flying home’ with no real winning chance first up in the Lawrence. Will have an equally hard task today with the pace that will be set out front and from barrier 9 will be going back again.
14. Jameka: Of the closers in the Lawrence, she was one of the horses closer than the back markers and made a lot of ground up. She was never a winning chance at any stage during the race, but she did show some clear intentions of winning a nice race this prep. This is still too short for her and the pace will be too fast, especially from where she will get from the barrier.
15. Entirely Platinum: I personally feel this horses best distance range is around the 1600m distance rather than 2000m+ unlike others in the race. His last start run when further back than expected was super. He will be pushing forward from the tricky barrier and will most likely find himself 3-4 pairs back and potentially 3-wide.
Comments: This is the race where the tempo will be hot from the word go with The Cleaner screaming along out front. As is normally the case with the rail out 3 metres, it will be very hard to make up ground from worse than midfield in such a race and i’m discounting those from the back. My eyes clearly rest on Jacquinot Bay, Tosen Stardom, Entirely Platnium, Suavito and Miss Rose de Lago who are all mapped to sit forward on the day. Miss Rose de Lago is the top pick for me while Tosen Stardom is second pick.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 10, 12, 15
Strategy: Miss Rose de Lago for 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.70
Moonee Valley Race 9 – 2040m – MSC Signs Handicap
1. Tall Ship: Hasn’t shown anything this prep and was very much beaten by the pace run last start at Caulfield. Working his way into a deep prep heading towards Caulfield Cups and potentially further. He actually goes quite well over this distance, but I’m not convinced he can win this coming off the gut buster at Caulfield with a week between runs.
2. Killarney Kid: Flying this prep having won his last two races including a very easy win last start at Flemington. Never won at track in the past but has won 7 of 10 over this distance range. Looks very well suited here from barrier 6.
3. Almandin: Had been working the house down before the very strange second up run from on speed where he found nothing. Katie Mallyon jumps off and Stevie Arnold on.. so probably goes forward again? Hard to trust on what we saw last start.
4. Bold Sniper:Very nice win last start at course and distance when ran down Pin Your Hopes. In well at the weights today, but back to a dryer track isn’t exactly ideal and harder company.
5. Swacadelic: Well backed last prep in a few races but could only manage the one big win at Flemington. Best over further.
6. Pin Your Hopes: Best form is on wetter tracks from this prep. Ran very well last start when led but stuck too far to the inside and was taken late. Going well enough but won’t find an easy lead from this barrier today.
7. Crafty Cruiser: Old mate is first up here at a distance he has run 15 times for 0 wins. Others preferred.
8. Hans Holbein: G3 winner over 2400m in the past. First run in Australia was okay but never really featured. Had a spell and comes back here in fine form by all reports and ready for a good run today. Barrier the big issue…. probably better suited to wetter tracks.
9. Tooleybuc Kid: Flew home last start to just miss behind Royal Rapture who has gone on and proven a very good type. Too far back last start at course and distance and not suited by the wetter track condition. Dryer today but will need luck even from barrier 4 to get the perfect run. Has ability.
10. Aloft: This is clearly the pick of the Williams owned runners today. Won over 1600m in the past to take his maiden and progressed onwards to win a Queen’s Vase over 3200m. Has been gelded and blinkers off here… clearly a top chance from a very positive barrier.
11. Zanteca: Not the worst runs heading into this today. Very best shown by her is over further than this. Can run well but i prefer others.
12. Lord Durante: Old the back and too far back last start at Caulfield. Will take some fitness from that but I struggle to suggest up to 2040m today even from the barrier. Is expected to try lead.
13. O’Lonera: Proved he has the ability to run around at city class with three wins in a row heading into this. Will enjoy the distance again and also the Valley. Will be pushing forward once again, but i’m certainly concerned about D Dunn onboard today. Has the ability but will find this more difficult.
14. Spur On Gold: Beaten fairly both runs this prep. Last start fell out of it very quickly on the soft track… may not have handled it. Best is over 2000m+ but very best is certainly over further. Last prep put in a very big win at Flemington…. not sure this is his track.
15. The Thug: Nice run for 2nd last start. Huge step up in grade and looks well outclassed.
Comments: Very much a wide open race today. I have to side with Killarney Kid on consistently from a very nice barrier today.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 9, 10, 13, 14
Strategy: Killarney Kid E/W
