Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on the 28 November 2015. Let’s stop to remember just how good that run was from Buffering last week landing our best bet, what a mighty animal! We move back to Moonee Valley with the rail back in the true. While you may instantly think it’s going to be leader biased, the rail to 5m out has all been very good ground recently, so i think it won’t be a disadvantage to be on speed, but it won’t be a huge bias… guess we will know early. I have a big feeling that this is a ‘bookies’ day, with most my races pointing to the favourites being well under the correct odds.. more importantly i think the Quaddie will be a big one and i’m quietly confident in our tips in it. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Mihalic – to win
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 – Shadowofyoursmile – Each-Way
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 7, 9, 10, 11, 14
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 7, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 7, 12, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1000m – John Paraskevas Plate
2. Gold Emblem: Blinkers on. First time seen in public. Market only guide. Single figures and was backed at early quote.
3. Legerity: Well bred. First race, market only guide. Very well backed. Poor barrier to start a career from.
4. Rampage: First race. Market only guide. Single figures Hayes yard runner. Colt. Good barrier.
5. Theanswermyfriend: Nice trial 2nd heading into this over 800m. Has been backed. Concern over breeding suggesting wants further? Poor barrier.
6. Giroux: 2nd in a trial. Filly against the boys. Double figures.
7. Key Evidence: Nice trial win to head into this. Obvious chance on trial run.
8. Lady Myers: Market only guide. Unwanted in betting.
9. Magnanimously: Market only guide. Unwanted in betting.
10. Monajet: Market only guide. Unwanted in betting.
12. Vegas Strip: Market only guide. Hasn’t been seen. Well supported coming into this. Well bred.
Comments: What an absolute disgrace that punters are dished up this shit to deal with to start a day of punting on a Saturday. We haven’t even seen half the field in open trials, so how are we expected to make an educated decision to punt? No wonder turn over will be low on the race and they are giving away $80,000. Good luck. I’ll give you a pick but it isn’t educated at all.
Confidence 1%
Strategy: Key Evidence E/W
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1200m – McMahon’s Dairy Handicap
1. Gold Busker: Looked a very good type as a 2YO with wins in Tasmania and then a nice win in Adelaide as well from on speed. Came back and did alot wrong first up and then failed to see out a strong 1400m the very next start. Short spell and back at it well back in class. Top weight but deserves it on his very best. Looks a touch of overs.
2. Les Darci: Fifth up today, he has gone through the grades with a solid maiden win and BM-64 win at course and distance before being well beaten last start on speed at Flemington. Clearly has to improve on last start and i’m not sure his very best is much higher than this grade this prep on what i’ve seen to date.
3. Well Sighted: Hard horse to catch. 2YO winner at Sale and Bm-64 winner at the bool. Nice run 4th behind Basset three runs back, but he has found very little since with no real excuse in much higher grade than this. Best ridden quiet and let go late. D Oliver jumps off.
4. Faatinah: Nice enough maiden win at Geelong four runs back. Ran Mr Individual to 0.2L at Pakenham and two runs since measured up but didn’t get close at Flemington over 1400m and 1000m. Certainly going well enough and good barrier should see him well in again here.
6. Our Vidia: Well back in class last start at Bendigo and just got the win. Two back run was fair after being slow away, but she certainly needs to improve on that run to measure up here. Good barrier the key if she can jump with them.
8. Dark Ensign: Last prep maiden winner in nice enough fashion from off the speed. Looks to have some ability but couldn’t see the jump straight into this today.
9. Divine Mr Artie: D Oliver jumps off Well Sighted and back onto this bloke today. Good maiden winner three back at Cranbourne and simply too far back at Flemington the next run, finished off strongly. Ran a nice 2nd to a form horse in Billabong Babe also last start. Going in the right direction.
11. Niccoco: In-form trainer. 7 winners from the last 22 runners at huge odds ($10 on all 22 would have given you a profit of $550). The stable have been placing the horses perfectly, so it’s hard to say anything bad about the horse being in this today. Won his maiden last start impressively and the time was sound. Well in at the weights, take on at your own peril.
12. Rillito: 5 horse race 5 length winner in a very average maiden on soft ground. Barrier 1. will be backed… but does look poorly positioned from barrier 1 being a swooper on previous patterns.
Comments: I don’t think there are any world beaters in this bunch and it’s hard to ignore the training stats of the MvEvoy stable and placement of their horses. I really liked the horses runs and Niccoco will have every possible chance from the barrier. Faatinah looks the main danger to my eye.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Niccoco and Faatinah to win.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1200m – WeDrive.Com.Au Your Car Handicap
1. Nautical: A long time between wins. Ran well two runs back at Geelong at big odds… went around in Group 3 last start on Heavy and finished off okay enough but was no match for the winners on the heavy track. Back to good track on a track she enjoys over a suitable distance. Nice barrier but will need some luck in running.
2. Sino Eagle: Long time since she has been at the top of her game. Last win didn’t rate very well at all to be honest and we were on that day, it was a weak race. Didn’t find much at all last prep. Not on my short list today.
3. Whistle Baby: Very best runs last prep were over further, but is still handy enough over this distance… but hasn’t won on it. Two runs for 0 placings at track. Good barrier but will be going back.
4. Catch That Cat: Three solid runs this prep with a 4th two back in G3 company and then 1.9L 8th last start on a heavy track. Poor barrier today though and another of those that maps to get back. Weighted okay.
6. Shadowofyoursmile: Should be leading them around today. Won two in a row in lesser grade and was found out last start at course and distance. Has to improve, but is well enough weighted.
8. Penny to Sell: First up today, best runs in the past over much further.
9. Kalabek: Well beaten the last two starts in similar company. Hard to have on current form lines.
10. First Print: Always a solid enough contender but she hasn’t gone close to a win this prep. Has to improve.
Comments: There isn’t a great deal of speed in this race. Shadowofyoursmile has been given a very small weight today and if she gets her way with them out front, she will be very hard to get past. I have only three main winning chances in this race and Shadowofyoursmile is one of them, the other two of them position out the back.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Shadowofyoursmile E/W
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 2500m – Slicpix Handicap
1. Tanby: His three runs this prep have been horrible. Up to 2500m for this run… it will have to click soon this prep, and the short back up is a sign the stable thinks it’s today.
2. Renew: Best runs in the past have been over much further than this. I did think his run four runs back in the Bart Cummings for 4th was quite good all things considering… well beaten last start in the Sandown Cup… weighted nicely enough but has to find his best run this prep.
3. Crime Fighter: Backed in last start in the Ararat Cup and showed nothing… forgive for the soft ground that day for mine. Stable obviously believe he is rock solid ready to go today up to the 2500m which should suit. Barrier helps.
4. Imperial Lass: Will be pushing forward from a good barrier today. Up in class last start well beaten. This is easier, but not a great deal. Should be suited over further.
5. Master Zephyr: Good tough win last start at course and distance. 4.35L back to 3rd. Has ability but needs to improve onwards again to win this.
6. Sure You Can: Just missed tow back after a long run. Improved onwards for a Strong run 6th in Group 2 company. Going the right way but big question over the distance today being what she is wanting?
7. Red Fella: Well beaten all runs this prep. Hard to have on current form or previous prep in this grade.
8. Spur On Gold: Well beaten last start by Master Zephyr. Hard to see turning the tables.
9. Mulga Chief: Back from Tasmania. Hasn’t won all prep
Comments: I’m a little interested in the price today of $61 for Tanby.. they aren’t backing the horse up this fast without feeling the horse is a chance… watch for a forward spot run. Master Zephyr is obviously a good type but the $2.50 in this grade looks unders.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Minor bet on Tanby E/W
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1600m – Strathmore FC 2005 Premiers Handicap
1. Flying Light: Well beaten the last four starts not getting within 2 lengths of a victory. Well back in class here though two weeks between runs. Has to improve to win but has the ratings to run well enough to contest this.
2. Kracken: Off the pace out the back last start in a slowly run race at Ballarat but finished off nicely. The same happened at Sale three runs back also. One dimensional horse, but you know he will be coming home late and he can pinch a better spot from barrier 4 today. Respect.
3. Mihalic: Ran very well from the back last start at Sandown. Big improvement on the previous runs. Barrier helps today to get a nice run closer to the speed and up to 1600m looks ideal. Rates very well.
4. Unbreakable: Big win last start at Kilmore in much easier grade. Obviously a good type but this is a big step up again.
5. Little Bita Spunk: Will be leading today. Bit of a surprise win last start in much easier grade but it was a nice rail that day. Not convinced we will see a win today though from this guy against this lot.
6. Kerauno: Well beaten last start in Adelaide in similar grade and had no issues during the run. Hard to see the win for mine on form lines.
8. Oxbow: Looked an okay type as a 2YO but first up run was very average. Needs the run.
9. Maysam: Maiden win first up was only fair. Run at Flemington for 5th wasn’t too bad two runs back from just simply too far back. Failed over-racing last start at Sandown and you have to ignore the run. Good barrier today but it’s hard to forgive so much.
10. She’s Got Speed: Maiden winner. Wasn’t the best rating race i’ve seen. Place at best.
11. Make Her Whey: Couldn’t win a maiden. No thanks.
Comments: From barrier 2 today Mihalic will position midfield in what is a big step down in class. This is her race to lose and the step up to 1600m is perfect.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Mihalic to win.
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1600m – Ranvet Handicap
1. Sadaqa: Ran very well last start at course and distance behind Tarangower… but was certainly no match that day. Top weight again today, will certainly be hard to win with this weight.
3. Golden Mane: Out the back first up at Flemington and never a chance, betting told the story. Has won at this distance in the past, but his very best is clearly over further. 7 runs 0 wins at this class an issue. Think he needs the run.
4. Hero Master: Improved run last start at Benella but still very far away from his very best runs later into his last prep. D Oliver takes the ride, but i’m not convinced he is ready to win.
6. Vintage Lad: More than a year between runs, he was actually a good run first up at big odds. Will be sitting midfield at best from the barrier, he needs further and a bit more rain.
7. Dante’s Finale: Two wins in a row to start the prep then last start found out in much harder company. Can run well enough today if gets a run on speed as mapped. Will need the right sectionals.
9. Belorum: Missed the start at course and distance last start then over-raced the whole way, so was really a forgive run. Done alot wrong all prep and barrier 11 doesn’t help causes today either. Wants the speed on.
10. Clear Direction: Dead last at Flemington last start. Previous run beaten 10 lengths. Run before that showed merit. Hard horse to have today, but a win certainly wouldn’t be a massive shock.
11. Club Star: Big win last start at Kyneton in decent time. Precious win was good also. 3YO grade run over 1600m at course and distance was nice enough to measure up here. Barrier the issue to get a good spot forward.
12. Our Valdivia: Every chance last start at Bendigo first up on speed when fell out of it quickly. Beaten by Clear Direction last run of last prep. Not convinced he is up to this grade.
14. Slade de Cerisy: Looked a nice enough type in the past. A long time between wins. Just missed first up at Kilmore and on that run looks to be in for a good prep with the pace being against him on the day. Good barrier.
Comments: Huge value in this leg. Only one way i could approach this race and it would be backing two runners at value along with the favourite.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 7, 9, 10, 11, 14
Strategy: Back Club Star for 1.5 unit. Also back Slade de Cerisy and Dante’s Finale for 0.25 units each.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1000m – City Jeep Handicap
1. Churchill Dancer: Disappointing run last start at Flemington. Put it down to the wet track. Rates very well on three previous runs especially the 2L 5th to Chautauqua. Will be just off the speed.
2. Unanimously: Continues to run well without getting close to a win. Poor barrier today, will be getting back and running on. Struggle to suggest a win here.
3. Sistine Demon: Will be attempting to be on speed today, but there is certainly a big if behind this with Fab Fevola in the race. He was fairly horrible two preps back, but last prep he did run 0.3L 3rd in his best run in a Group 3 over further. Distance the query for sure.
4. Lonrockstar: Very strong first up record with 2 wins 3 places from 5 starts. Two runs at track for two places and 4 wins 4 places from 11 starts at distance. Super consistent and rated up to this grade with wins in the past. Will be ridden for luck midfield on rail.
5. Vatican: Well beaten last start at course over the 950m. Previous run was quite good off a slower tempo. Weighted okay and good barrier, but is certainly a non-winner.
6. Grane: Mr Consistent, Grane always runs a good race, but does need luck in running to get the win. Will be closer to the back than midfield from the barrier today… tempo will be on for him at least.
7. Straturbo: D Oliver onboard today, strange to see this bloke in Victoria! Has run at track once before and ran a place. Has a nice first up record. Last prep he measured up to this type of grade with runs behind Fell Swoop and Boss Lane.
8. African Pulse: Beaten horribly last start. Previous run as bad also. Get the feeling his racing career is done. No thanks.
9. Trevinder: Strong win last start at course over the 950m from midfield/off-pace. Looks well enough weighted and going in the right direction. Big chance.
10. It’s Poets Day: Massive win last start on speed and just kept coming. Query if comes into this off the gut buster though as always. Big step up in class the other big query and speed will be on much harder today. Nice barrier helps.
12. Celeritas: Every chance last start just not good enough. Can’t see the improvement from this barrier.
Comments: I don’t see a lot of value in terms of playing in this race with win bets. The whole race has been turned on it’s head with Fab Fevola scratched. Trevinder will get a gun run and if good enough will be getting out in the final 200m off their backs to challenge.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10
Strategy: Trevinder E/W
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1500m – 1Print Handicap
1. Quicksilver Lass: Taken up to the Gold Coast two runs back to get a win. Didn’t handle the wet track IMO last start but still ran home okay considering how far back she was behind the winner. Win wouldn’t shock here on best.
2. To Be Honest: Dead last to finish last prep and 10th the run before, started single figures both runs! Previous run was a win at Balarat in similar grade to this. Hard horse to rate, but best runs have been on dryer tracks and she didn’t find many last prep. 6 runs at track for 0 places a huge concern. Also in this class same stats…. but she hasn’t been far off a few of those runs.
3. Ample On Offa: Good win first up this prep then went around short odds the next three runs when well beaten… they then gave a good price last start and just got the win. Much harder here is the issue. Has been backed. Good barrier.
4. Sari: Won two in a row going through the easier grades. Two back well beaten when further back than previous two runs, then last start out the back as well from a poor barrier. Poor barrier again today, hard to see it up in grade again.
5. Marli Magic: Two runs to date this prep and found absolutely nothing. 6 runs for 0 wins in this class in the past, but a step up to 1500m is what the doctor ordered today and Sadler is backing her up a week between runs…. he knows what he is doing here. Respect.
6. Winston Drive: Weir runner. Missed the start last start which is a concern from the barrier today. Expect her to be out the back running on. Best is good enough.
7. Sea Spray: Massive issue with jumping well this prep missing the last three jumps. Continues to run well, but her last win was a long time ago and had to sit midfield that day. Loves to run well and just miss…. D Oliver a good booking for mine but he needs to jump her well from the barrier.
8. Bet You She Rocks: Well beaten last start at Moonee Valley but it wasn’t a terrible run, just found a really good one.
9. Melaleuca: Won last prep first up. Never won at the track from 3 attempts though and 6 runs for 0 wins at this class a concern. Goes well on all surfaces. There or there abouts last prep but couldn’t get a win after the first up run in much easier class.
10. Oh So Assertive: Strong run last start at course over 1200m and just missed. Up to 1500m should be more than suitable with her last win over the 1400m distance. Looks well weighted and maps well to sit just off the speed. Has the ability.
11. Young Nicola: Blocked for runs last start so a bit of a forgive that first up run. Previous preps form not good enough surely though? Needs massive improvement first run ever in this grade.
Comments: Another open affair. Think the top two in our market are over the odds while Sea Spray is the unders of the race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 7, 10
Strategy: Marli Magic to win. Also back Oh So Assertive.
Moonee Valley Race 9 – 1200m – William Hill Handicap
1. General Groove: 200 days between runs. Will position out the back, even from the barrier. Last prep was beaten 4L and 10L. Previous prep he did prove to be a handy type with a nice win at Flemington, but it’s more than a year since that occured. Will need to be at his best at the weights first up.
2. Nicoscene: Nice enough barrier to get a midfield position. Ignore first up when just simply didn’t handle a heavy track. Last prep was a Group 2 winner over 1200m at Morphetville and won two handy races at this course and distance also before that. 3kg claim of Dunn the key to him having every chance today.
3. Taddei Tondo: Out the back last start at Sandown missing the start. Worked home okay enough but was never a threat. Good win two back at Bendigo. Concern over missing the kick last start.
4. Mandla: Very disappointing run at Flemington last start when well beaten 5 lengths on a tricky day of racing. Ran well two runs before that. Hard horse to rate but he does enjoy this track and best is good enough.
6. Tudor: Just ignore the run last start on heavy and rate on previous run 2nd to Reldas who ran well for 2nd behind form horse Malaguerra at Flemington next start. 3kg claim has him very well in at the weights today, but he has drawn a horror barrier. Will need a good ride or to push on to try sit outside the leader to get every chance today.
7. Valiant Warrior: Good win last prep at course and distance on a soft 5 track. Failed the next start. Come back this prep with three runs and has failed to place on all three occasions. Last start though was a much better run only beaten 0.9L. Key barrier.
8. Belesron: Hardest test to date. Well beaten first up at Morphetville. Barrier 10 makes it very hard to get a nice spot during running. Not convinced he is good enough.
9. Written Up: On speed and well beaten first up at Kyneton. Failed to previous all runs previous prep in town. Long time between wins.
10. Boomwaa: Very good horse that sticks on solidly to the line, who is very hard to beat on any biased rail. Nice barrier today, trialed okay heading into this. Has won at track, but has never won first up. Not overly convinced there will be enough of a bias, but being the last race, you will know by the start of the race!
12. Kievann: Big weight winner first up at course and distance. Up in class today but finds himself very well suited 2nd up today off that win. Nice enough barrier as well to have every chance.
13. Zupacharged: Not the worst run last start over 1400m. Step back to 1200m today should suit. Won very well two runs back. Beat should see him in this. Gear changes help.
Comments: Wide open race to finish the night. Nicoscene looks very well weighted and gets a good run from the barrier.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 7, 12, 13
Strategy: Nicoscene E/W
