Welcome to The Profits form for William Reid Stakes night at Moonee Valley on 24 March 2016. I’m overseas enjoying a holiday in Dubai currently so the form provided is going to be limited for this meeting with the main races covered as per the below information. Just the one standout play for tonight with my eyes set to Saturday both in Australia as well at Dubai on World Cup night! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Melbourne Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 – Flamberge for 1 unit @ $14/$3.60 Each-Way
The clear value in the race comes back to a horse that was very good to us last start in Flamberge. Unlike last start, he doesn’t have to do it the hard way, with barrier 2 this time in. He will only be better for the first up run.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1600m – Art Series Hotel Alexandra Stakes
1. Indarra: Looked a nice type last prep but both runs this prep have been well below par. Up to 1600m obviously looks to suit but hard to see a win here on runs to date.
2. Jacqui’s Joy: Didn’t have anything go right first up at Flemington when slow out and got further back than expected, then blocked for runs at critical stages of the race. Proved to be a nice type last prep with three wins on the trot. This is her hardest test to date.
3. Bengal Cat: Ever since her 2nd to My Poppette at MV last year she has been well below her best, failing to place. Last two starts were very disappointing, but D Oliver does keep the ride.
4. Lazumba: 3YO winner last start after a strong maiden win before that. On previous preps we can expect her to get the 1600m with no issues at all and she was placed in Group 2 as a 2YO to Jameka. Current form more than good enough.
5. Sweet Redemption: Waterhouse Runner. Has looked nice enough this prep going through the grades but this is a massive step up in class again back to 1600m from running 2100m last start down in Tasmania. Barrier helps here will be on speed.
6. Labdien: Wide run last start but still finished just 3L off the winners which isn’t terrible form. Expect she will get the 1600m with little trouble and her previous preps form suggest she has ability. Awkward barrier but J Mac is good enough to deal with that.
7. Sempre Libera: Promised a lot but failed to deliver with just the 1 win to date having run in Group races her last 7 runs for 0 places (0.4L off a win 7 runs back). Two runs to date average at best.
8. Thames Court: Well back in class first up and put that field to the sword with relative ease. Back up to a class where she will be suited, but 1200m up to 1600m second up in a big step. Will need a gem of a ride from Bowman to get the right position in running and to see out the trip. Can win.
9. Ballybrit: She has looked a nice type going through the grades. Got the maiden win two back in very strong fashion and followed that up by a good win at Sandown last start. Has to improve on those runs to win this, but does have ability.
10. Daniela Rosa: Another runner that has gone through the grades. Found quite a few too good last start at a higher grade. Has to improve here.
11. Giddyup: Nice enough type. Got us the cash at Moonee Valley a few weeks back in a far easier race when controlled the tempo and was never threatened. Has to improve significantly again here but does map well.
12. Lake Como: Always suggested she had a lot of potential but has failed to fire on the track at the higher levels. Back in grade significantly last start at Cranbourne to get the win. Need to improve here from the average barrier to place.
Comments: A tough race on paper. You all know my bias for Thames Court and the respect I have for the horses ability, but there is no way I could take $5 today in this field from that barrier straight up to 1600m. Lazumba is the standout runner with potential going up in distance today based on her first two runs to date. The issue is we don’t know how well she will handle the track which takes away confidence.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Lazumba E/W
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 955m – Jeep 55 Second Challenge Heat 16
1. Unanimously: Hasn’t won since the middle of 2014! Last prep he actually put in a few decent runs with his best at course and distance 1L 5th to Tawteen. Never won at track but D Oliver onboard you have to respect his ability. Barrier doesn’t help.
2. Sheidel: Consistent mare who has won 11 from 15 runs over in the west. Finished last prep with two listed grade wins and was 4th in a Group 3. Best runs were the 1000m so will be suited by the tempo here. Will find it very hard to get an on speed position today though from the wide barrier with Fabby and a few others in the race. Have to respect.
3. Grane: Continues to just run well at any grade at big odds. Goes well at this track always. Will go okay on the track condition.
4. Geegees Doublejay: Consistent type that has proven to be the real deal down in Tassy. 6 wins from 8 on soft tracks and 1 from 1 on heavy, so goes very well on this type of track condition. Goes well over the shorter distances all the way up to 1200m. Barrier obviously a bonus.
6. General Jackson: Ran as expected first up. Hard to have here on all we know about the horse. Pass.
7. Bullpit: Has won on a soft track previously, but very best runs have been on firmer ground. Has to improve to be winning this today, but hard to argue with how he has been running. Was a lesser performance last start.
9. Beau Rada: Nice enough 5th at Flemington last start, but I think we found out how high a class he really is on his last two runs in similar class to this. Bet around.
11. Sweet Emily: 4 runs for 0 places on soft tracks. Never really gone close either. Has ability and obviously a nice type, but hard to have in this class based on the track condition and previous runs this prep.
12. Fab Fevola: Old mate is always up for a good run at this course and distance. The issue is his very best runs especially recently have been on much firmer ground than this. Will be leading around the turn. How much he has to give will depend on if anyone takes him on out the front.
13. Royal Spinner: Previous runs this prep suggest his very best will be found over the shorter distances, but he is still a length or two short of measuring up to city class.
14. She’s Ellie: Every chance last start on speed at course and distance when running a game third. Clearly has to improve and be able to do it from not leading today.
Comments: This is much tougher than it looks. Couldn’t take the short price on Sheidel first up here especially from the barrier knowing Fabby has an inside draw and will get the lead i’d imagine. I think we have to simply ignore the last start run of GeeGees DoubleJay and rate on the previous runs including a 2nd to Admiral who would clearly be favourite here. Well in at the weights, barrier suits and so does the conditions.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Geegees DoubleJay E/W
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1200m – William Reid Stakes
1. Lucky Hussler: Group 1 winner over 1600m. Flew home last start in WFA-G1 company at Caulfield when blocked for runs but still almost got there. Was a clear eye-catcher that day, but there is certainly a concern that he isn’t good enough for the 1200m distance range. Barrier 5, will be closer to the back than midfield and might even find the fence. Goes well at track.
2. Flamberge: Massive price on offer today for this last start Group 1 winner which has produced follow-up group class form out of the race that you can take to the bank. Massive improvement today with Barrier 2. Will get a perfect run and be very hard to beat.
3. The Quarterback: 52kg last start in the Newmarket and got the win. Will be very hard today to repeat that effort off the 58.5kg in WFA class from out the back around a bend.
4. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Very average run first up at Caulfield behind Flamberge. Best form in the past has him placing in WFA-G1 class but has to take another step here and barrier doesn’t help.
5. It Is Written: Nice horse but he doesn’t win out of turn. 8 runs for 2 places in similar class in the past. Goes well at this track but not going well enough to suggest a place.
6. Churchill Dancer: Strong runs the last three with placings in Group 3, WFA-G2 and 4th in Group 1 last start. Well up in weight here, has to improve to be considered a massive chance. Barrier does work in his favour but 1 win from 6 at this track.
7. Gregers: Not the worst run first up beaten 2.3L. She loves to run well but seems to not get close to a win especially in this class with 2.3L, 2.5L and 2L off a win the last three runs in Group 1. Goes well at track but hard to suggest back up in class up in weight.
8. Scarlet Billows: Best runs in the past have been over further with 1400m being her very best trip. First up run wasn’t terrible in F&M grade, has to improve on runs to date. Does like this track.
9. Japonisme: Huge run first up in WFA-G1 beaten 0.2L. Last start well weighted when 5th 1.3L in Group 1 in the Newmarket beaten by The Quarterback. Much better suited today with a stronger tempo expected.
10. Holler: Hard to ignore his last start win at Randwick leading all the way, but that was very much a day suited to running it as hard as you can and not getting run down. Back to 1200m can’t hurt and looks okay in at the weights. Have to respect.
11. Headwater: Good run two back at Flemington but very average last start. His very best is good enough to measure up here based in WFA-G1 4th to Buffering here last prep… but 1200m isn’t his best distance.
12. Kinglike: Ran well enough first up when 2nd to English at Randwick. That form hasn’t exactly been the A grade stuff to follow forward, but we know he will be better suited over 1200m. Good barrier but expect he would be better suited to a long straight track.
Comments: A much more difficult race than it looks on paper, Lucky Hussler is under the correct odds back to the 1200m today. The prices on Japonisme and Holler are pretty right, while the price on Kinglike looks well unders. The clear value in the race comes back to a horse that was very good to us last start in Flamberge. Unlike last start, he doesn’t have to do it the hard way, with barrier 2 this time in. He will only be better for the first up run.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Flamberge for 1 unit @ $14/$3.60 Each-Way
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1600m – William Hill Sunline Stakes
1. Fenway: Three runs this prep have all been top class measuring up in WFA level. Back to FM Group 2 grade today and finds herself well in here. Only issue is the wide barrier. Will be better suited back to 1600m with the strong tempo expected. Will have an issue getting a spot in running.
2. Miss Rose De Lago: Disappointing run last start at Flemington but her best runs have been at courses with longer bends and shorter straights. Her record here in the past isn’t great, but i think she is well suited. Respect back to this class.
3. Wawail: Continues to make her way through the grades but is yet to crack this level. Big step up again here. Does go well at MV on past experiences. Not certain she gets the strong 1600m today.
4. Noble Protector: Stayed in the stalls at Flemington first up after a massive drift. Probably showed her best run in the past at this track.
5. Choose: Nice enough type. Has been measuring up to compete in these grades in the past but yet to take a win. Hard to see the required improvement.
6. Dig a Pony: Step up in class again here. Best runs in the past have been on this type of track rating so you have to consider her a good chance today.
7. Metaphorical: Will position midfield. Very nice run three back but last two runs had his chances. Has to improve but going the right way and likes this track. Not convinced soft is her best.
8. Ungrateful Ellen: Disappointing last prep. First up found very little and never measured up on soft so to speak (did run 4th over her best distance). Have to improve on first up big time.
9. Felicienne: Good enough win last start at Flemington off a hot tempo. Goes well at this track but unproven on soft is the only issue.
10. Anfitriona: Nice enough run third first up behind rough justice. Will improve second up and up in distance but this is a tough ask!
11. Japhils: Every chance last start at Moonee Valley running well for third. Massive step up in distance that is a distance she has never won at.
12. Anaphora: Very disappointing last start. Doubt they will try and lead today! Best runs still short of this.
13. Holy Cow: Always showed ability but last two preps hasn’t placed. Take on here.
Comments: When all is said and done, Fenway comes into this with the very best form lines and with 1 run on soft being a 2nd in FM-GP1 company, it’s hard to ignore her here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Fenway to win.
