Welcome to The Profits form guide for 23 January 2016 at Moonee Valley. Back to the scene of many crimes and our best recorded track. Our most confident bet of the year so far comes up with a huge unit size bet going down while a few other plays stand out on the card! As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Burning Front for 8 units @ $2.25
Small field, looks only three core chances and Burning Front is so well weighted based on the ability to lead with no contest and the main chance mapping out the back. Super confident here.
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 – Calavertie for 2.25 units @ $3.65. Miss Steele for 1 unit @ $8.50
Two clear standouts in on previous form lines. One on speed done out the back… all bases covered.
Other Bet
Moonee Valley Race 9 – Volcanic Ash 1.5 units @ $3.80 to win
Continues to run well this prep. Last start 3-wide the trip and only lost under a length. Looks well suited here from barrier.
Big Value Bet
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Sirbible for 0.75 units @ $11/$3.20 Each-Way
Huge win last start at course and similar distance. Can repeat that effort and improve onwards. Tough horse!
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 7, 11, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 11, 12, 13
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 6, 7, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 6, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Mooneee Valley Race 1
1. Defrost My Heart: Disappointing run first up when last in similar company. Have to consider on previous best form but does need to show improvement on first up and not too long between runs.
2. Yulong Baby: Won two strong races in a row and continues to go through the grades. Won in harder company two back and will appreciate any give in the ground. Looks well in from barrier.
3. Yellen: Every chance the last three runs and has fallen just a bit short. Ran 1L 3rd to Yulong Baby over distance two runs back. Gets 1.5kg on her here.
4. Ring Da Belle: Slow to begin last start and finished off only fairly. Has to improve on last two runs but is well enough in at the weights.
5. Miss Maggiebeel: Decent enough win two back at Sandown. Last start at Flemington performed well when jumped poorly and ran on from out the back for 3rd. Can improve today.
6. Monogram: Strong win in the end last start beating an average bunch. Best runs have been when she is allowed to get going a long way out from home and she will need a very good ride here.
7. Forever True: Bm-64 winner two back then failed in harder class last start. Big jump again. Not for me.
8. Suspecious Minds: Decent type but this is a big step up again into harder company. Need to find a level we haven’t seen yet.
9. Piran: Hard to see her winning here on three runs this prep.
Comments: This is a very hard race to anticipate on paper. The short priced favourite Yulong Baby will most likely sit out the back today and i can’t see any reason why they would attempt to run them along here. I think Monogram is horrible unders in the race while Yulong Baby is more a $3.50 shot than the $2.70 being bet. There are two ways to approach this race. The first is to lay Yulong Baby and Monogram to win, and the second is to back the four horses I’m keen on here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Yellen for 1 unit @ $4.30. Defrost My Heart for 0.25 units @ $16. Miss Maggiebeel for 0.25 units @ $19. Ring Da Belle for 0.5 units @ $11.
Mooneee Valley Race 2
1. Snoopy: Ignore the Guineas run and rate on previous four runs that prep where he won twice and ran very well at Caulfield for a 0.5L 4th in Group 3 company. Maps onspeed and will have every chance from perfect gate.
2. Danuki: Looked a nice type first prep in 2YO grade and first up in 3YO grade, but last two runs were well off a win. Has to have come back at the top of his game here.
3. Irish Saturday: CL1 3rd two back… then 0.3L winner in much easier BM-4 grade last start. D Oliver onboard… has to improve on form lines for mine.
4. Inner Circle: Maiden only winner. Placed in 2YO grade on a heavy track. Not sure this is one of the stables very best but happy to be proven wrong?
5. Challenge Accepted: Slowly away 2 lengths but got going and dominated the field only run to date when $1.50 favourite. Has to be respected.
6. Bellomo: Every chance all three runs this prep. has to improve up in class.
7. Downhearted: Nice enough maiden win but two runs since just not good enough. Up in class again.
8. Tri Harda: Average maiden win first up. Got to improve on that to beat these.
9. Street Pride: On speed last start in similar grade and ran home for 4th. Has to improve on that run but can run a place.
Comments:: Not the best field you will ever see. Have faith in Snoopy’s ability and think he should measure up here.
Confidence 65%
Strategyy: Snoopy to win.
Mooneee Valley Race 3
1. Choose: Looks to be the likely leader. Went around almost a year ago in the Autumn as a $8 2nd favourite in FM-GP3 class. Has won over 1200m in past and certainly can’t be dismissed in this grade, but her best runs have been over further… will have every chance allowed to control tempo.
2. Miss Steele: FM-GP1 4th last prep over 1200m to Miracles of Life and then 4th over 1200m in FM-GP3. Good record at course and distance and looks well in from barrier.
3. Celeritas: Strong win two back at course over 950m. Up to 1100m last start was very disappointing result 5th.. was blocked for a run and not ridden out final 100m. Has to find best.
4. Our Harmony: Kept going through the grades last prep when measured up to win a 3YOF race. First up close 3rd to Rough Justice a great lead in race.
5. Calaverite: 2F-GP3 0.1L 2nd on Heavy on record. Very strong 2YO-LR win at course and distance over a good horse in Miss Idyllic on record also. Looks very well weighted here compared to others in race. Produce her best and she will be very hard to catch.
7. Herstory: Very disappointing run first up. Stays at 1200m. Hard to have on that first up run.
8. Simply Ming: Every chance all runs this prep. Hardest test this and just can’t see the improvement for the win.
9. Mrs President: Looked a nice type last two preps but failed to measure up to the very highest grade. Need to see the run here.
10. Grand Gallop: Hard to have on two runs to date. Others preferred.
Comments:: Two clear top picks here for me in Calaverite and Miss Steele on ratings. Very keen to back both.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Calavertie for 2.25 units @ $3.65. Miss Steele for 1 unit @ $8.50
Mooneee Valley Race 4
1. Flying Light: Continues to run well this prep without winning after getting his maiden. 0.3L 0.8L and 0.8L defeats the past three runs. Back from open grade to 3YO grade and looks well suited with the claim from barrier 2.
2. Big Don: His Don, his good! Nice enough win last start in much easier company over 1700m. Will make the step up to 2040m today no issues. Has to improve though on previous two runs to do so.
3. Alamonteel: Easy enough strong win last start at Benalla when did a buck load of work. Distance increase suitable… big step up in class here though but certainly going the right way.
5. O’Lonera: Maiden winner over 1850m by a long distance. Last two runs were only fair. Has to improve.
7. Infinite Reign: Couldn’t win last three runs in BM-64 grade. Struggle to suggest on current form.
8. Zandarral: Every chance last start at Caulfield behind Yulong Baby and just not good enough. Has to find much more today.
9. Spirited Character: Average Werribee win last start when 0.8L 1st to a small field. Much harder here.
10. Tossilini: Maiden winner and times were not great.
11. Poppiholla: Just missed last start at Sandown blocked for runs. Looks well rated here.
12. Romanze: Maiden only winner. Has to improve on current form.
13. Teoflyte: Non-winner so far. Take on.
Comments:: Not alot of value in this race outside of Alamonteel who ran a huge race last start and looks over the odds. Flying Light is more than the correct price really and so is poppiholla.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Alamonteel E/W
Mooneee Valley Race 5
1. Burning Front: 18 runs into this prep and only missed top 3 once this prep and that was when beaten by Turn Me Loose who went on to win A Group 1. Last two runs have been fine, but he never looked the winner at any stage. Top weight here today in a very small field.. only looks a few chances to beat him. Loves Moonee Valley.
4. Del Prado: Beat Burning Front home last start at Flemington and did a fair bit wrong… but was ridden out the back and let go late which considering the time run you would have expected him to finish off better than Burning Front. Giving him 1.5kg today.
5. Tom Puss: Two poor runs in a row. Can’t see it.
6. Ten Goals: BM-64 grade winner straight up to this. Not convinced.
7. Khutulun: Not the worst run pulling the whole race at the bool last start when 2.5L off Arties Shore… looks a length off these at the distance based on previous runs this prep… Not very well in against Burning Front.
8. Mister Miyagi: Couldn’t win a 3YO-64 grade last start.. couldn’t place.. maiden only winner.
9. Eunice: Couldn’t place in CL1 last start.. nope.
Comments:: This is Burning Front’s race to lose. He is the only speed in the race. His main threat Del Prado maps out the back. He gets 1.5kg on Del Prado and will find the tempo he wants. He gets the rail at Moonee Valley out 3M… bet of the year to date confidence.
Confidence 95%
Strategyy: Burning Front for 8 units @ $2.25 to win.
Mooneee Valley Race 6
2. Wales: Ignore last start run when over an unsuitable distance and rate on previous run when just beaten 2nd by Junoob in listed company. Looks very well in back up to 2040m. Has to be considered.
3. Now and Zen: First up run found little as expected. Will be going over hurdles again this prep.. but should handle the 2000m just fine. Rawiller on suggests they are going for the win here to me.
4. Alrouz: Two runs this prep over 1500m and 1600m both unsuitable distances. Up to 2040m looks more suitable. Will have to improve though.
6. Schockemohle: A long time between drinks. Hasn’t run very well the last two starts. Alot to prove today.. struggle to suggest a win.
7. Use The Lot: Had to go back last start then got on speed after a lot of work and just kept on finding when a strong 2nd. Looks nicely weighted again here considering and maps as one of two on speed runners.
9. Tucanchoo: Wide barrier will have to go back one would expect hurting chances. Decent type who can go forward and run well, but first time the trip an issue.
10. Denoninator: BM-64 winner three back. Failed to run on since. Take on.
11. Prima: Kept on battling to the line last start at Caulfield and will enjoy the extra distance today based on previous runs form. Don’t dismiss! Maps well and 3kg claim key.
12. Bullish Stock: Had his chances last start and disappointing. Has to improve at weights.
13. Rebel Rising: Every chance all five starts this prep and hasn’t been good enough to even go close to winning. Take him on.
14. Lord Ore: Not in this class on four previous runs.
15. Indexes: Not here!
Comments: Wide open race as suggested by the betting market. Prime looks weighted to win with a good ride.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 7, 11, 12
Strategy: Prima E/W
Mooneee Valley Race 7
1. Rebel Dane: 1st, 2nd and 3rd in Group 2, WFA-G2 and WFA-G1 last prep. Come back very well by all reports nad loves this distance. Very strong barrier.
2. Mourinho: Won first up two preps back at course and distance in this race I believe. This looks a much harder race today.
3. Hucklebuck: Needs the run by all reports today, but he is a quality animal and isn’t coming for a parade.
4. Trust in a Gust: Disappointing only run last prep. Short spell. Must find best.
5. It Is Written: Back to MV thankfully. Can run a cheeky race… good place price!
6. Churchill Dancer: Consistent type that loves to run well. Hasn’t been winning lately sadly and i think he needs a spell. Up in class here also.
7. Richie’s Vibe: Got home well enough last prep but couldn’t get close to the win. Appreciate the extra time to replay.
9. Written Up: Good win two back over Kievann. Failed last start against Tuscan Sling. Next start was good also.
10. Kievann: Disappointing run at Caulfield last prep. Can improve.
11. Sirbible: Looks very well in at the weights. Going great guns the last two starts. Rates to lead easy and win well.
12. Rageese: No disgrace first prep when 5th in Guineas. Alot to prove today.
13. Holler: Massive 4.3L winner last prep. 3Y-Gp2 placed also. Goes well at track
Comments:: I have an issue from the barrier just where Rebel Dane gets in the race. Needs to sit midfield at worst to win. Sirbible has proven to be a very good type and will be hard to get past.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 11, 12, 13
Strategy: Sirbible for 0.75 units @ $11/$3.20
Mooneee Valley Race 8
1. Trevinder: Going the right way this prep with the last three runs all being strong. Goes very well at course and distance and looks weighted well enough back to this class. Barrier an issue.
2. Beau Rada: Nice run 1L 7th last start down Flemington Straight. Should run home well with the speed expected on here. All up to the ride i’d say.
3. Danger Close: Backed last start at Flemington and showed little. Previous run wasn’t terrible. Has to improve and never gone well here in the past.
4. Canali: Old mate isn’t up to this grade anymore for mine on what i’ve seen recently. Take on.
6. Pathways: Hard to judge her very best distance but it has to be around 1200m i’d say. Back to 1100m today 2nd up.. first up only ran fairly when Runsati came from a similar position in running.
7. Shakespearean Lass: Went boom last start at Sandown destroying the field.
8. Ready Sunshine: Adelaide runner D Oliver onboard. Couldn’t win back home doubt it wins here.
9. Roll The Ignition: Goes well first up. Best over slightly further but handles 1000m. Clearly a nice type and has potential.
10. Bawcatme: Disappointingly 5th at Flemington last start and 3rd at Moonee Valley. Better weighted but needs a miracle to turn that form around.
11. Runsati: Strong win first up at MV. Consider for future issues. Step up in class but should be achieveable. Previous form lines sound.
12. I’m A Flying Star: Going the right way based on last start but a fair way to go…
Comments:: Short prices on many but they are deserved. I’d have to go with Beau Rada E/W with the speed on.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 6, 7, 10, 11
Strategy: Beau Rada E/W
Mooneee Valley Race 9
1. Abbasso: Horrible run first up. Need further and may be cooked?
2. Pin Your Hopes: Doesn’t win out of turn but goes forward and leads. No advised tactics change yet.
3. Koroibete: Disappointing first up run when found little. Take on.
4. Volcanic Ash: Ignore last start at course and distance when caught wide. Won’t happen from barrier 5. Looks well in here.
5. Orion: Four runs this prep and closest was Mighty Like in Bendigo. Not the worst trainer going arond tomorrow!
6. Leveraction: Shock Echuca win last start. Have to take on again though.
7. The Ruffian: Not in this class.
9. Tuff Host: Beens to improve on last start at Caulfield and can go 1 or 2 better. Has ability but has to show it.
10. Rationality: Two starts two runs the last month. Going through the grades, others preferred.
12. Young Nicola: Going okay. Similar previous three runs gone close. Did win last start but much easier than this.
14. Prepee: Nice strong 2nd at Caulfield last start in similar company and grade from on speed. Won’t get the leisure out the front today.
15. Heavy: First up too short simple. Today won’t be any different.
16. Murdoch’s Joy: Favourite last start and smashed by leveraction. Nope!
Comments: Hard to pass up the price on Volcanic Ash. We know how good the horse is!
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 6, 10
Strategy: Volcanic Ash 1.5 units @ $3.80 to win
