Welcome to The Profits preview for Moonee Valley Manikato Stakes night on 21 October 2016. The forecast is bleak for Friday with anywhere between 15-25mm of rain expected to hit the track giving us a Soft track on the day and complicating form. With the rail in the True, runners should be able to win from anywhere. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 2 – Mihany – 2.5 units @ $2.60 to win. Freshwater Storm – 0.5 units @ $17 to win
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 – Rageese for 1.5 units @ $2.90 to win
Best Value Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Gallant Harmony – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $18/$4.70
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Leg Two: 2, 3, 11
Leg Three: 1, 2, 8, 11
Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 7, 11, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1000m – Sweeney Estate Agents Handicap
1. Highland Beat: Blinkers first time. Not the best wet tracker on past runs. Got too far back last start and was a forgive run. Rates well here and deserves the top weight. Good barrier to sit just off the speed.
2. Conchita: Well beaten last start in G3 grade at Caulfield when led but fell out of contention in the straight well beaten.. Best runs in the past have been on wet tracks.
3. Falcool: Two runs for two wins this prep on heavy 8 tracks. Big step up in class here but similar distance range and is certainly flying.
4. Showpero: 2YO Handicap winner before running 3rd in listed grade to end last prep in a 100k race. First up today but obviously goes well on soft tracks and looks well suited from barrier 1 sitting most likely just off the leader or leading.
5. Moshway: Very good win last prep then failed to show similar form after that. 1200m is his distance but two runs this prep have seen him fail to show a run good enough to win here.
6. Biased Witness: Awkward barrier today. Won well at Pakenham two back before a respectable 4th from on speed at Flemington over 1400m. Had a spell since and should be well suited if runs well first up. Handled soft tracks in trials so shouldn’t be much of an issue.
7. Bringaroo: Has won on a Soft 7 in the past beating some nice types. Two runs last prep were solid but not good enough to go close. Has been gelded since and a few gear changes that will allow him to settle better. Looks well suited as long as he can settle.
8. Terindah: Won first up on a heavy 9 before running 2nd to Falcool last start at the bool. Only run on a Good track was good 4th to Missrock in listed class so should be able to run well if at best form.
9. Invincible Joy: Won first up on the Synthetic at Geelong. Didn’t make up much ground late last start. Hard to suggest even at his best.
10. Snitty Kitty: Will be on speed today. On speed last start when well beaten by Sylpheed and Gretna at Caulfield. Step up in class but does have ability.
Comments: Having been gelded since last run, i’m willing to take a risk on Bringaroo settling much better today and being strong late in the piece.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Bringaroo E/W
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1600m – Strathmore Community Bank Country Cup
1. Mihany: Massive win at course and distance two back by 3.5 lengths. Last start ran very well on speed and only just got beaten by a very good type in Royal Rapture on the day. Rates super well here and shouldn’t have any issues with a soft track either based on first up run this prep. Had a trial to keep him ticking over between runs.
2. Refulgent: Nice enough win three runs back in easier company at Sandown. Well beaten 2nd to Freshwater Storm two back at Caulfield while last start seemed to have every possible chance at Bairnsdale. Hard horse to suggest on current form lines around others today.
3. Sandhill Storm: Won three of last four races. Last start won in Listed grade at Murray Bridge beating a good field on a soft 5 track. Looks a clear threat to the favourite.
4. Freshwater Storm: Ignore the fact he went around last start when they crawled and he wasn’t suited one bit. No threat of that happening with Mihany in the race and Sandhill Storm on speed to push him along also. Very strong barrier today from 6 and with Walker keeping the ride… will appreciate the rain, the pace and sitting just off the pace. Every chance today and big overs.
5. Profit Share: Hasn’t won this prep disappointingly. Ran a nice enough 2nd to Birds of Tokyo last start in the Coleraine Cup. Leica Day who was third that day has come out and won since but Birds of Tokyo has failed sinse. Well beaten two back in the Gold Nugget behind Freshwater Storm and several others here. Has to improve onwards.
6. Marwood: Won very well four back at Caulfield over the 1400m when well backed on the day. Failed to go close since with a 2nd and 3rd on the record. Goes okay enough on wetter tracks. Never won at track a concern.
7. Nisos: Not the worst run first up but clearly wanting further and needs the run.
8. New York: Big win two back at Bairnsdale before failing to fire last start at Moe. Has to improve and find best to place today.
9. Hell on Earth: Two wins in a row in easier classes of race on heavy tracks heading into this. Will appreciate the track today but hard to see him going from a BM-58 to BM-70 to this today even off a 6L win.
10. Doogans Rise: been struggling in BM-64 and 70 grade heading into this and needs further.
11. Schopenhauer: CL3 winner two back before a respectable 3rd in BM-64 grade at Moe. Not a bad horse but well out of his class.
Comments: Sandhill Warrior, Mihany, Profit Share and Freshwater Storm are the four horses of interest today. As always, it comes down to how the race is going to be run, which horse maps where and if we are getting the right price.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Mihany – 2.5 units @ $2.60. Freshwater Storm – 0.5 units @ $17
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 2040m – Chandler Macleod Handicap
1. Taiyoo: Hasn’t been closer than 4 lengths all prep. Last start in the JRA Cup was the first horse beaten and never placed on a soft or heavy track in the past. Hard to suggest.
2. Hippopus: Will push forward from the wide barrier today. First up had a lazy 66kg in the Port Macquarie race and ran 5.1L 10th. Up in distance today. Horses very best is more than good enough to run well… but hard to see it.
3. Nevis: Last prep won well twice in similar company over 1600m. Two runs this prep and well beaten 5.9L and 4.3L over 1500m and 1700m on softer tracks. Needs to improve to be a factor here.
4. Second Bullet: Was a very good run first up at Caulfield in the Heatherlie when rattled home for 5th off a solid tempo. Ignore run in the Naturalism and then didn’t factor in the G1 Turnbull. Well back in class but a big query on anything but a Good 3 track.
5. Tarquin: Three runs this prep but hasn’t found any real form at all. Well beaten 5.75L behind Real Love and Maurus last start at course and distance. Clearly needs to find another gear here.
6. Tooleybuc Kid: Very strong run first up when 1L off Royal Rapture. Disappointed next start at course and distance and also last start off a slow tempo. Freshened and will be better suited off a hotter tempo today. Maps nicely from barrier 6. Not 100% sure this horse loves it wet though but can still run okay on it.
7. Nozomi: Put the writing on the wall the first two runs into the prep and got the win back in class last start beating Electric Fusion. Up in class and well down in weights. Not convinced he is well suited by the track today though with no real wet track form on record.
8. Lord Durante: Hasn’t won since Hanson had No.1 hit single… but mmmmbop it could very well be the race run to suit Lord Durante. Has placed more than half his runs at this track and has been running consistently well all prep.
10. The Thug: Well beaten last start when very plain. Two back run won quite well at Sandown but the form lines around Morning Mix didn’t exactly get franked at Geelong on Wednesday.
Comments: Tarquin is a false favourite on my ratings while Nozomi is also under the odds. Second Bullet is hard to trust and Nevis hasn’t shown enough to suggest a win here. I can only look towards Name the Day, Lord Durante and Tooleybuc Kid here. I think we are creating a nice price on the race by backing all three.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back Lord Durante & Tooleybuc Kid to win.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 2040m – LF Sign Group Handicap
1. Gabella: On the quick backup here after a run that was never going to win on the day from well back. Back up to over the 2040m distance today, she put the writing on the wall three runs back on a soft track behind Royal Rapture, Tally and Big Memory. Maps very well.
2. C’est Beau La Vie: Three runs this prep but hasn’t exactly been close on any occasion. Big step up in distance today to the 2040m… this horse was G1 placed in the SA Oaks last prep with a G3 2nd over 1800m. I think she is ready to fire today.
3. Tidy Prophet: Good win two back over in Adelaide in much easier grade. Last start ran fairly 3rd behind Sandhill Warrior at Murray Bridge in a similar grade of race. Never won over this distance in the past and is a big step up in class again.
4. Tears of Joy: Two runs this prep… first up was only average over 1400m and last start never a chance when 3-wide no cover and fell out of it quickly. Clearly needs to go to another level again today.
5. Cinnamon Carter: Won well last start at Cranbourne on a softer track. Made a very early move that proved successful out sprinting a group of much easier horses. Maps nicely again today and can run well.
6. Replique: Trialed well heading into this prep but two runs over 1350m and 1600m and hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire. Yes, she found the line just okay last start, but she was winning listed grade last prep over 1600m and should be showing more.
7. Powderworks: Well beaten by Cinnamon Carter last start storming home when it was all but over and done with. Another step up in class and poor barrier.
8. Arianne: Found a bit of form three back at Sandown but since then has failed the next two starts over this distance. Never been at this track and never placed from 4 attempts over this distance in the past.
9. Spanish Love: Weir stable runner. Nice enough run last start but fairly beaten by Powderworks. 6 runs for 0 wins or seconds on wet tracks. Never won at distance.
10. Savannah Moon: Another coming out of the Cinnamon Carter race. Had every chance when got the dream run and just didn’t finish off well enough.
11. Smart As You Think: Every possible chance last start behind Theanswermyfriend well beaten 3rd. Up in distance should help but big improvement required to place.
12. Ginali: Good win five back at Sandown in a bit of a surprise. Failed to fire a shot since and hard to suggest off last start when still fairly beaten.
13. Artesian: Godolphin runner coming in here off a nice run when made ground off a slow tempo behind Cinnamon Carter. Well suited by distance increase but actually poorly weighted against today.
Comments: Cinnamon Carter is the clear value of the race today coming off a very strong win last start and well weighted here… but CC may just be a grade below the top horses here in Gabella and C’est Beua La Vie. I know Cinnamon Carter will make a staying test of this and that will suit C’Est Beau La Vie more than Gabella.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: C’est Beau La Vie to win. Also back Cinnamon Carter.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 955m – Inglis 55 Second Challenge Heat 3
1. O’Malley: Ran home very well first up over the 1000m from the back on a soft track. Last start got bck again and ran home very well behind Group 1 placed horses like Heatherly and Wild Rain. Back to the 955m… from barrier 3 will be getting back and running on. May need a bit of luck but has the ability. Looks ready to fire.
2. Gallant Harmony: Solid effort first up at course and distance when 1.35L off Gun Case when held up for a run. Looks well suited here again today and maps well enough.
3. Usain Dane: BM-90 winner last start on a soft track in Adelaide. Will get back in the running today and be hitting the line hard. Has to improve onwards and upwards to defeat all these today.
4. General Jackson: Every chance first up when just simply didn’t have the class to go with those runners on the day. Never won on a soft track and looks well outclassed for mine.
5. Golden Spin: Hasn’t been seen for over 250 days since being defeated 0.1L in G3 class over 1200m at Caulfield. Very strong tough type that goes on speed and breaks hearts…. but does have the turn of foot as well to sit behind leaders. Only question is if this distance is really his cup of tea.
6. Runson: Favourite last star tin easier grade at Cranbourne when got the job done well beating home Lady Esprit. Previous run at course and distance led all the way but failed to get the win with Rock n Gold going past. Has to improve but expected to run well again.
7. Rock ‘n’ Gold: Big win last start at course and distance in easier class. Clearly has ability and looks to have gone to the next level. Hard to dismiss.
8. Brockhoff: G3 0.1L 2nd, 2nd up last prep behind Santa Ana Lane before failing to find much after that. Did win first up on a soft track at course over 1000m. Clearly has the ability.
9. El Prado Gold: Doesn’t win often at all but loves to run a place at very attractive odds. Hard to see the win but with rain around will run well once again.
10. Dalrada: Heavy track winner first up in easier grade. Previous preps been running country grade. Loves a fast tempo. Barrier hurts but will be pushing forward.
11. Royal Spinner: First up today and never won at this distance. Last prep did run some solid races with a 2nd behind Gun Case. Goes well on wet tracks.. but this is a tough ask class wise.
12. Another Diamond: First up won well mid-week at the bool. Hard to see the backing up here but is obviously going well and has ability.
Comments: Tough race on paper. O’Malley will have every chance again today but will certainly be getting far back with 60kg. Gallant Harmony looks a bit of value mapping just off the pace off a forgive run in harder company. Golden Spin is a big unknown off what we can only assume was an injury that ended last prep early. Brockhoff is the other keyc chance and Runson can’t be left out of the Quaddie. When all is said and done, the price on offer for Gallant Harmony is impossible to pass up here.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Strategy: Gallant Harmony – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $18/$4.70
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1500m – Mitchelton Wines Handicap
1. Scherzoso: Got a handicap win over Golden Mane and Longeron last prep at Caulfield. Trialled average coming into this today and the 1500m is certainly short of his very best distance which was 2000m last prep. Can run well but is certainly up against it at the distance.
2. Sistine Demon: Ran a very strong third last start in the Weekend Hussler behind Chetwood and Rough Justice with a perfect ride by Katie Mallyon on speed pushed along at a good tempo. Up to 1500m will only help the cause and no issues really with the rain i’d imagine. Blinkers off is an issue for mine with so many other runners in the race going forward.
3. Rageese: Will appreciate the speed being on again with another race behind Sistine Demon, but this time, from a better barrier, he can sit closer to the speed if they feel fit to do so. Wouldn’t want to be sitting last on him. Well backed and clearly the one to beat.
4. Tristram’s Sun: Ran horrible first up and didn’t improve last start at Caulfield either over 1200m. Should be fit enough to run a race today if good enough – really wanting it wet.
5. Gracious Prospect: Shown nothing the past two preps. Have to take him on.
6. Lucky Paddy: Fancied Weir runner that was first up for over 3000 days last start when beaten 5 lengths. Up in distance only just but very much expected to improve here. I need to see the run personally.
8. Master Reset: Never really winning first up when out sprinted from on speed but certainly ran a nice race. Will be better for that run and can run well today, but he won’t get an easy time.
9. Scelto: Found nothing first up over an unsuitable 1200m. 1500m is no better on form lines and he needs another run here today.
10. Cool Chap: Very disappointing first up in easier grade of race and a drifter after opening a nice price. Best runs were over 2000m+ last prep and happy to take him on.
11. Snake Charmer: Well fancied type going through the grades with two wins in a row on wet and dry tracks. Didn’t beat the best horses you will ever see, so has to take another step up.
12. Boom Time: Two runs at course and distance last prep and just missed on the first occasion and ran well on the second occasion. Has ability and goes okay on soft tracks.
13. Temps Voleur: Found nothing first up over 1200m. Up to 1500m but even on previous form it’s hard to suggest a win or place.
Comments: Looks a very average race with only a small number of runners that can win with Rageese the top chance and worth a bet at the price.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 11
Strategy: Rageese for 1.5 units @ $2.90 to win
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1200m – William Hill Manikato Stakes
1. Buffering: MUCH better suited today than last start when never got peace on speed and by all reports was not pushed hard enough at home. Has trained on since and is going well leading into this from a very good barrier. Handles the sting out of the ground and looks a big player today.
2. Chautauqua: Didn’t have the turn of foot required first up when well beaten 3L 4th in a very disappointing display. Got the only barrier they didn’t want in Barrier 1 today and will need a lot of luck to find the right run today. Could be giving away too much distance into the straight to better horses is the issue.
3. Lucky Hussler: Every possible chance last start in the Moir and was simply out sprinted. His very best runs are clearly over further than this and I just have to take him on based on the first up experiment heading towards a 1600m run.
4. Under the Louvre: Never suited last start at Flemington with no speed on and just finished off solidly to the line. Very good barrier today and maps very well to get a good spot 3/4 way back in the field and looks well suited to the speed. A very good run shouldn’t shock for this Group 1 winner.
5. Rebel Dane: Has been very disappointing this prep sadly. Not the worst run last start at Randwick but clearly outclassed here.
6. The Quarterback: Nice win first up in G2 class off a slow tempo and was very well suited with his turn of foot. Going well once again this prep and is hard to ignore. Will get far back but will run home well.
7. Japonisme: Good trial heading in and has strong form lines on tracks with sting out of the ground. Two runs this prep have been hugely disappointing and it’s hard to see a reversal of form to measure up to win this.
8. Fell Swoop: Wide no cover when 3rd to Star Turn behind Malaguerra first up at Caulfield. Group class winner over this distance and from a perfect inside barrier will sit just off the speed runner Buffering covered up for a run. Can sneak out and steal it if good enough today.
9. Holler: Failed at Royal Ascot last prep. Previous prep G1 winner at Randwick beating First Seal and Kermadec and ran a close 0.1L 2nd in the William Reid behind Flamberge beating home Japonisme. At his best he can measure up here for a strong run and maps to be on speed with Buffering.
10. English: Horrible first up when didn’t finish off with any great turn of foot. Last start at Randwick went home well from out the back when 4th. Any rain will help her chances here. Has to improve onwards on first two runs up to this class.
11. Capitalist: Gets in at a nice weight. No disgrace first up beaten by Russian Rev and Astern. Well backed today and maps to get a good spot most likely 1 out 1 back. Sydney form is holding up lately.
Comments: This is a wide open race. The Grey Flash will be getting very far back and needing luck from the barrier.. but he does very well like a bit of sting out of the ground. Buffering will get a MUCH easier time out front today and a return to his very best form would see him hard to get past if the rail plays fair. Holler has the ability to run well sitting outside Buffering and so does Capitalist and Fell Swoop just off them.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 8, 11
Strategy: Buffering E/W
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1200m – Yulong Park Handicap
1. Passing Shot: Ran very well two back at course and distance when was just passed in the final 50m. Last start was an ignore job and so was first up. On best from back home, he has more than enough class to run well here.
2. Santa Ana Lane: Has gone well most runs this prep without winning. 1200m today and rates well with the rain expected. Only issue is mapping from awkward barrier 10.
3. It is Written: Nice run first up when came home strongly from last behind Gun Case over the unsuitable 955m. Step up in distance and a bit of rain won’t hurt at all!
5. Redkirk Warrior: Trialled well coming into this. Sha Tin horse that was 0.1L 2nd to Thunder Fantasy in 2015. Not been seen for a long time. Hard to judge and needs further.
6. Rough Justice: As expected last start he ran a very game race 2nd to Chetwood. Katie Mallyon takes the ride today. Suited by this track but the rain is a BIG negative.
7. Fast Cash: Nice enough win here last start over 1200m when 3-wide no cover and still won with authority. Very good horse and handles wet tracks. Will be running on late.. might get too far back the only issue?
8. Taddei Tondo: Old mate Taddei ran a ripper two back behind Fast Cash before throwing the rider off last start at Caulfield. Never won on a soft track.
10. Majestic Duke: A long time between drinks and bar plates first time a concern. Never won first up but does like this distance range and wetter tracks. Has to have improved from last prep.
11. Sir Bacchus: Nice win first up over at Rosehill on a Soft 7 track. No disgrace the next start with a tough weight either and last start at course and distance held up for runs and then found the line well. Change of jockey important and good barrier has him well in this.
12. Handsome Tycoon: Just missed last start at Caulfield in easier company behind Murt the Flirt. Big distance to third and stable backing up here with confidence. Soft track surface the only concern.
13. Real Time: Horrible run first up. Hasn’t seen much of him for over a year. Hard to appreciate here.
14. Sandhill Flash: Close 2nd last start in a 50k race at Murray Bridge and looks well enough weighted going forward. Clearly has metro class ability but it’s been a very long time between wins.
15. Catch That Cat: Always seems to run well at this track. Didn’t show much first up or last prep.
Comments: Wide way to finish the day. Sir Bacchus is the one to clearly beat on form.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 7, 11, 12
Strategy: Back Sir Bacchus
