Welcome to The Profits form guide for 20 August 2016 from Moonee Valley. Everything went to plan last week for us at Caulfield landing our best bet of the day with ease and then Miss Rose de Lago as our best value of the day saluted at what ended up double figure odds if you took the late price! We return to our best stomping ground in Moonee Valley with high hopes with the rail back in the True. The rain has come and we are expecting a soft 6-7 track for most of the day with a bit of rain around throughout the day also. Keen on a few runners. As always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 – Pin Your Hopes for 2.25 units Each-Way @ $5.80/$2.00
Next Best Bets
Moonee Valley Race 3 – French Emotion for 3 units @ $3.20 to win
Best Value Bets
Moonee Valley Race 2 – Lahqa for 1 unit Each-Way @ $8/$2.75
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Leg One: 3, 4, 8
Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 9
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 13, 14
Leg Four: 1, 6, 8, 13, 15, 18
BSPIndex – UNDER 73.5 @ $2.00
A new type of bet from Betfair, you are essentially picking the total combined starting price of each runner for the 9 races on the card today at Moonee Valley. The line has been set at 73.5 for today and i’m keen on starting out on the Unders. I’ve got the BSP starting off with quite a few low numbers up until Race 6. At this stage i’ll either keep my bet on, hedge out or reverse my position to have a big bet on Overs, while most likely keeping my exposure on unders to $0. I’m expecting a few blowouts in the final three races of the day and we will be getting a very nice price at this time of the day. You can view the market here.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 2500m – Rangedale Plate
1. Au Revoir: Finally found his form last start at Flemington when winning well in a similar type of race over this distance. Will get the same track condition, but won’t be getting a picnic out infront today. Going well enough but does have to improve onwards again.
3. Black Tomahawk: Will be pushing further forward today from the inside barrier to most likely sit behind the leader. 0.1L 2nd last start behind Au Revoir and much better weighted today. Gave the leaders 7L last start and won’t be doing that today. Hard to beat.
5. Refectory: Last start win in much easier grade at Sandown on a Soft 6 after making a very early move. Significant improvement needed again for mine to be winning here. Looking to go to the hurdles next start.
6. Bayanova: Expect her to go back in the run today from the barrier. Goes well on Soft tracks and has been running okay.. but beaten 4.5L 2nd last start in easier grade… place chance at best.
7. Jimivag: Nice run third behind Killarney Kid three runs back at Flemington over 2000m, but two runs back and last start was fairly beaten and a win would be shocking here.
8. Celestial Sky: Couldn’t place this prep in BM-58 or 64 grade. Shouldn’t be here.
Comments: Certainly not the easiest way to start the day. If there is really solid support for Try Four then it would be worth considering the horse today, but overall, Black Tomahawk is the top pick at the current odds.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Black Tomahawk to win.
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1600m – SKM Recycling Handicap
2. Caprese: Continues to run well without winning recently. Up to 1600m first time a bit of a throw at the stumps. Too far back jumping badly last start and still ran well. Maps much better today… if he handles the distance then you have to think he is a good shot. Likes it wet also.
3. Lahqa: Huge disappointment last start at Flemington and it’s hard to understand exactly what happened last start. Back to a soft track again here where probably better suited and back up to 1600m. Trainer expects her to run well.
4. Miss Denni: First up this prep was very good 3rd in similar grade at Flemington when came from off the speed to just miss. Should be suited just fine here with the track condition… up to 1600m also.
5. Archean: Weir runner. First up over 1400m ran nicely enough from out the back for 4th. Best runs in the past have been more suited to 1600-2000m so is better here today. Goes okay enough on slow tracks also. Good barrier.
6. Steggler: Import over from the UK… won at 1600m and last start 0.8L off a win in 1600m before coming out here. Hasn’t run for nearly a year.
7. Distant Rock: Consistent type and you know exactly what you will get from him. Best runs have been on dryer.
8. The Thug: Hasn’t won in a very long time. Two runs this prep shown absolutely nothing. Has to improve significantly to place.
9. Grand Dreamer: Nice enough run first up on a wet surface at Sandown. Previous preps suggest step up in distance here will do him the world of good and he likes it wet. May be slightly outclassed is the only issue.
Comments: Another race that is not exactly oozing classy runners. I’m expecting Lahqa to be suited back to Moonee Valley today in a race where she should find the lead. Strong stats over the 1600m with 8 runs for 3 wins 4 places and has placed 8 out of last attempts in this type of class or better. Ignore last start.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Lahqa for 1 unit Each-Way @ $8/$2.75
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1200m – Dr Sheahan Plate
1. Vibrant Rouge: Improved run last start at Caulfield when sat on the speed and found the line well… never really a threat over the good type in Andrassy, but was a good run. Hates the wet though.
2. French Emotion: I’m convinced this girl is best kept over these sprint distances and the stable have started her here today. Clearly on last prep form has TOP ability and while I don’t think she LOVES a very wet track, she gets through it just fine and has had a decent enough trial heading in.
3. Rockolicious: Ran well first up from simply too far back in a race controlled by the leaders. Goes well on wet tracks and looks ideally placed.
4. Catch A Fire: Been running well at home heading into this. Probably better suited over slightly further but last prep did win her maiden over this distance by 4 lengths. Wet form not great the issue.
5. Celeritas: Ran much better last start at Caulfield back to a dryer track. Gets a wetter track again which makes it hard to consider here.
6. Refuse to Lose: Two wins in a row in much easier grades than this. Up in class again and not really well weighted for mine. Does get a good mapping on the speed but has to find a length or two at very least.
7. Prussian Vixen: Horrible run first up when pulled up lame. Very hard to back today off a lameness issue in a grade she has never won at at a track she has never won at.
8. Not A Happy Camper: Showed much improvement last start at Flemington when a good run 3rd behind Camdus. Back to a wetter track looks a big disadvantage.
9. Foreign Affair: Two solid runs coming into this today when no luck wide throughout the races. Goes well enough on wetter tracks and has ability. One to consider at odds.
10. Liten Prinsessa: Only run at track was a win back in late 2015. Best runs in the past have been on dryer surfaces. Struggle to see the improvement on this track rating.
Comments: A race filled with ‘second raters’ who aren’t producing runs that will see them advance onwards to F&M grade.. apart from our top pick of course. French Emotion comes into this race off a very solid prep that saw her 0.5L 2nd in F&M grade last prep. Her best runs were early in the prep over 1200m and her last win at course and distance showed her true class.. let’s hope for a clearer run today! Catch A Fire looks the main rival but is certainly an unknown on the surface.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: French Emotion for 3 units @ $3.20 to win
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1200m – Cleanaway Plate
1. Zamzam: Looked a nice type as a 2YO with placings behind Extreme Choice, a 2YO-LR win at course and distance on a wet track. Probably just ignore the G1 run over 1400m.. wasn’t suited by distance and had come to end of her prep. Expected to run well
2. Sweet Sherry: This girl has something to her that I like. Her 2Yo 1000m win early in 2015 was a ripper and I thought her 3.3L 6th to Samara Dancer was a great run also. No disgrace at all in the Slipper when running 7th from on speed either! Will get a lovely spot in run and should be closer to the speed than most expect. Can run well.
5. Motown Lil: Been racing all around including over in Adelaide but she still hasn’t been able to find a win. Change of jockey and still finds a wet track, has to go to the next level.
6. Princess of Queens: Maiden winner last start when first up on a soft track. Suited here. Not sure the times suggest she is good enough to win this though.
7. Tan Tat Beauty: Decent enough maiden win first up at Pakenham when well backed. Has to go to the next level today to beat all these.
8. Moonlover: Did a lot wrong but still won with authority first up at Moe in a maiden. Sent out to spell and comes back today in good spirits. Looks a blowout chance for mine from a good barrier.
9. Monkey Magic: Pakenham winner last start over the 1000m in average time. Didn’t do a lot wrong but i’m not convinced this is a top grade horse.
10. Plenty to Like: Nothing to really like about the first prep. Take on here.
11. Dezuri: Only run to date was very well beaten. Take on.
Comments: Two standouts on my ratings in Moonlover and Zamzam. Back both if betting.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Moonlover to win. Also back Zamzam
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1200m – Essendon Nissan McKenzie Stakes
1. Throssell: Looked a good type in his first prep for the Maher stable when winning a maiden and progressing to win a 1400m listed race very well at Flemington. Not sure he beat a great deal of class that day though is the only issue, but he maps well and will be hard to beat. Query over track.
3. Dam Ready: Good win here over 1000m last prep before beaten favourite to end the prep. Trialled very well leading into this and should have no issues with the track condition.
5. Baffert: Had a dream run last start at Geelong when just held out my horse Time to Sail who swooped from the back at a distance that really shouldn’t have suited. So how good is he? I’m not convinced he should be considered a top chance here based on that last start run based on times.
6. Deal Master: Maiden winner in fairly average time at Pakenham. It was a decent win but i’d struggle to back up here on a soft track.
7. Verstappen: Impressive win at Pakenham and the time was fairly sound all things considered. Another who is unknown on wet but looks to be the goods.
8. Ken’s Dream: Smashed an average bunch by over 9 lengths in a high paying race at Echuca on the heavy. Will enjoy the track condition again today and has been well backed.. but the bookies are willing to take him on.
9. Wimborne: Nothing first prep. Been nearly a year between runs. Don’t fully dismiss.
Comments: I find it hard to back against Ken’s Dream today, but I also couldn’t take the price. Throssell is the one at odds if you are looking for a larger bet.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Ken’s Dream to win.
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 2040m – Mayoral Charity Community Handicap
2. Bold Sniper: Back in distance here and should run well on the soft track … needs to try and lead today but will be hard with the horses in this. Well enough weighted to run well but probably finds one or two too good again.
3. Pin Your Hopes: Horrible tactics last start at Flemington to not lead and paid the price. Back to a softer track again today and looks well suited at the distance and so well weighted. Huge chance.
4. Tooleybuc Kid: Ran a ripper first up for 2nd behind Royal Rapture and he really looks to be in for a Group winning prep. Will be well back running on late is the only issue.
5. Rhythm to Spare: Had his chances every run this prep and simply not good enough. Take on.
6. Golden Mane: Ran a very good race 2nd to Killarney Kid. Stable like his chances here with the low weight again but i’m not convinced he finds his best on the slow tracks.
7. Wish Come True: Nothing shown first up. Hasn’t won since 2014. Best last prep was on soft tracks but still not good enough to suggest a win here.
8. Yulong Baby: Nice enough win last start at Flemington as favourite. Only just got it though. back to wetter tracks which isn’t ideal for this horse and well up in class. Not very well weighted.
9. Lucques: Nice enough run last start. needs more runs and to be put up over 2500m+.
10. Cooldini: Hasn’t won since 2014. Hasn’t won a race worth mentioning in two preps.
Comments: The compressed weight scale today has quite a few in this race not very well weighted. Pin Your Hopes will be very hard to beat today if he repeats the run of two back. He finds himself better weighted against Yulong Baby for defeating her three runs back. Tooleybuc Kid looks the only real danger on my ratings and he maps out the back today.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 8
Strategy: Pin Your Hopes for 2.25 units Each-Way @ $5.80/$2.00
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1500m – Westar Trucks Isuzu Handicap
2. Nevis: Proved to be a handy type last prep with a Listed grade win from out the front and followed that up with a open grade race win at Sandown. Two runs on soft tracks back in UK for wins… including a 3YO-LR 9L 2300m win. Should be well suited to the racing at this track today. Will be on speed most likely outside of Onpicalo.
3. Royal Rapture: Just continues to improve this horse. Good win two back at Flemington on a soft track and continues to improve, winning last start in open grade. Back to a wetter track and back to 1500m looks ideal. Maps to get a sit just off the winners if all goes to plan from the barrier.
4. Swacadelic: Goes okay enough first up but has never won over this distance and while he should be in for another good prep, this is just too short and too wet.
5. Onpicalo: Decided not to lead last start at Flemington costing him any real chance… Dee off and Mertens on.. will be leading from barrier 1 and looks suited soft track back to 1500m. Won at course three runs back over 1600m. Nicely weighted.
7. Zanteca: Likes all surfaces and all track types. 2nd up today and really looking for a longer distance than this today. Will be best suited over 2000+.
8. Master Zephyr: Last win was over 2000m+.. previous two were 2500m+. First up at a distance he has never placed at and never won first up. Needs the run but in for a good prep.
9. Pilote D’essai: Horrible barrier today for this very talented import. Nice run when wide last start at Flemington and expect he will be running wide again today to get around the field. Tough ask here… but trainer suggests they will try push forward and slot in, which could see him get caught 3-wide the trip. Likes it wet.
10. Majestic Duke: Finally hits a wet track which is where I feel he finds his best runs. That being said, he has been well off his best this prep and has to improve lengths again today.
11. Chill Party: Been off over a year. Looked a very good type winning a Group 2 race as a 3YO over Stratum Star at course… best runs over further. Needs the run.
12. Pemberley: Progressed nicely through the grades last prep as a Moody horse. Doesn’t really go very well on the soft tracks is my issue and this is his hardest test to date first up.
Comments: Pilote D’Essai is a massively short price for a horse that has a horrible barrier and openly is going to be ridden for luck in the early stages to get a spot midfield…will get caught 3-wide one in every two runs I reckon! Even with that, the horses to beat all map very well today with Onpicalo and Nevis on speed and Royal Rapture at worst will be inside of Pilote D’Essai. This isn’t really a race i’m overly confident to be betting into, but Royal Rapture gets the slight nod.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 9
Strategy: Royal Rapture to win.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1000m – 1Print Carlyon Stakes
1. Shiraz: Been off 4 months after a nice enough last prep…. didn’t get a win unlike the previous prep where he scored four.. but he was 0.8L 2nd in Group 1 class and 0.9L 4th in WFA-G2 class. His soft form is ‘okay’ but he did fail on the soft Randwick track to finish last prep like many did that day. Certainly the class of the race.
2. Passing Shot: NZ import. Listed sprint winner. Certainly has a lot of talent but best runs have been on dry tracks. Has clear ability but this is another step up for this horse to our Listed level.
3. Keen Array: Hugely disappointing last prep after his 3YO spring saw Listed wins and Group 2 2nd to Japonisme. If he is back to his best, he will be a force to be reckoned with, but we need to see him run here.
4. Iconic: Trialing like a beast coming into this and Riley has him going very well. Will be pushing forward i’d imagine from the wide gate.
5. Heatherly: Unknown on wet tracks. Group 1 3rd to finish last prep behind Flamberge at Caulfield. Now a 4YO, she is a classy sprinter and has won 2 of three at this track.
6. Well Sprung: Went through the grades last prep but didn’t get to this level. First up form is not great and this is a huge ask.
7. General Truce: The General put in a very good run three back at Flemington to take out a nice race. Last start in WFA-G3 class at Caulfield ran very well back to a dryer surface… gets back to soft today and will be hitting the line hard.
11. O’Malley: Went around favourite at Sandown last start and showed very little after a decent win the previous start at course and distance. Will be well back here and has to improve to better ratings than ever run from the wide barrier.
13. Atmospherical: Hard to ignore her first up run at Caulfield in WFA-G3 when 3rd to Wild Rain. Wet track form isn’t really that great though and has never run at this track.. last win in 2014 was at Flemington which says a lot. Awkward barrier today.
14. Viddora: Beat a strong field last start in Morphetville holding out Ocean Embers who has gone on to run well since. This is a massive step up in class though and the barrier makes it harder as well. Has to improve again.
15. Pretty Possum: Well beaten in much easier last start at Flemington. two back won well here on a soft track beating Jungle Edge in easier grade. Has to find another few lengths.
Comments: Wide Quaddie leg with several chances in the race. Several chances in the race. Heatherly gets the run of the race out the front, but the price isn’t any value. The only way I could consider playing is backing the value in Iconic.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 13, 14
Strategy: Iconic E/W
Moonee Valley Race 9 – 1200m – William Hill Handicap
1. Le Bonsir: Lovely run last start at Flemington when just kept sticking on strongly. Never won on a soft track but is Group 3 placed on soft so can’t exactly ignore that. Goes well at this track but very hard from barrier 14.
2. Sistine Demon: Best runs in the past have been over much further distances than this. Wide barrier hurts chances to get a spot on speed also. Likes this track. Hard to see a win here.
3. Hard Romp: If the real Hard Romp turned up he would be a massive chance, but his last two runs have left a lot to be desired and even the previous three runs which were fine, he was never a threat. Never won on soft.
4. Rough Justice: Nice enough type as proven the last two preps with good runs in this grade with wins. Never missed a place at this course from 3 starts and while he has never won on soft, he has always placed. Respect his ability and the key barrier 2 position today.
6. Shaf: Massive win last start at Flemington. Back to a wetter surface today which is a huge issue considering his best last start was on much dryer. Big chance but I couldn’t touch on soft 6 or worse.
7. Solsay: Old mate hasn’t run a race in a very long time. First up was horrible. Never shown best on wet either. Hard to suggest.
8. Magnus Reign: Ignore last start run for mine and rate on previous run.. was a very good run 2nd to Mighty Like. Yes, he has to improve again, but I like what he has shown this prep. Win wouldn’t shock.
10. Fast Cash: Well outclassed here on his previous preps. Last start wasn’t actually too bad, but clearly has to improve onwards again.
12. Rich Jack: Will be on speed today. Beaten 4L+ the past 3 runs. Struggle to suggest on soft.
13. Sebring Sun: Weir runner that has a 3YO Group 1 placing to Exosphere on the form lines and 3YO Group 3 placing to Shards also. Two runs this prep have been very average.. Weir is a genius.
15. Runsati: Very nice run 2nd behind Shaf last start at Flemington. Goes very well at this track and maps nicely from barrier 9 to be on speed. Last run on soft was in a similar grade of race 2nd to Odyssey Moon which is nice form. Big chance.
17. Just Magical: Two runs this prep and shown nothing. Take on.
18. Magicus: Wide barrier makes it tough. Huge step up in class again. I struggle to suggest as i KNOW Craig Williams will have this horse 3-wide the prep. No.
Comments: Runsati is a massive chance at the odds on offer today… maps well and will enjoy the track condition.. will get every chance in running.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 6, 8, 13, 15, 18
Strategy: RunSati E/W
