Welcome to The Profits form guide for 2 January 2016 at Moonee Valley. Yesterday didn’t start the year in the fashion we were after with a few results not going our way. Onto Moonee Valley and we have our most confident bet for a very long time in the first race of the day as our best bet. Overall, there is quite a bit of confidence in these races and i’m confident of landing the Quaddie as well as a few good bets. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 1
Heatherly for 5 units @ $2.10 to win
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6
Leica Day for 2 units @ $3.45 to win. Ring da Belle for 1 unit @ $5.10 to win.
Other Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 2
Sadaqa for 1.5 units @ $6.50 to win. Siegestor for 1 unit @ $4.75 to win.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 8, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 7
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 4, 10, 12, 14, 17
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
1. Petite’s Reward: Obvious threat to the favourite. Down 0.5kg after beating Heatherly last start but finds herself still 1kg worse off from a poorer barrier. Has to improve onwards again but has ability.
2. Heatherly: Missed the jump last start and settled further back than expected. Well weighted today and 3rd up i’m thinking this is the perfect time to get involved from the perfect inside barrier in this small field.
3. Apriano: Maiden winner last start at Cranbourne. Time was much slower than I like to see leading straight into something this hard.
4. Bellomo: Two runs this prep not got within 2.3L of a win. Both runs had merit but he certainly has to improve today. Will be ridden quiet and have last shot at them.
5. Certain Ellie: 2YO winner in Adelaide. Last prep he didn’t get within 4L of a win. Obviously has ability on previous preps runs but he is 1 win 0 places from 9 runs.
6. Conspicuous Maid: Maiden winner… took two other runs this prep to break through. Has obvious ability but certainly needs to improve to be placing here.
7. Super Bryan: Looks fully fit after the last start R-58 win from start to finish with bias. Couldn’t win a maiden the previous three races though and looks under the odds to me getting just 1.5kg off Heatherly.
Comments: Most confident bet in a long time this one. Haven’t been on Heatherly any runs this prep and i’m keen to jump onboard today.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Heatherly for 5 units @ $2.10 to win
Moonee Valley Race 2
1. Trade Commissioner: Hard to explain last start at Wodonga. Previous run at Donald was obviously good enough to measure up here at the weights. Inconsistent and hasn’t won in a very long time.
2. Azurite: Irish import. Won an Open class 2410m race in Ireland at the end of 2014. Three runs for very poor displays in middle of 2015 and has been onsold. Mcevoy/Oliver combo has a good recent strike rate, but even i can’t be satisfied with this runner first up in Aus over the 1600m. Needs further.
3. Sadaqa: HUGE run last start at Flemington behind Tashbeeh with the top weight. Just kept finding and finding to the line ridden with a sit instead of leading. Tashbeeh went 1.3L off a win on Boxing Day at Caulfield in Listed grade after that run. Sadaqa stays in BM-84 grade and looks the likely leader outside of Marli Magic who will contest him for the lead. Looks well in here.
4. Orion: Did a few things wrong last start at Flemington. Poorly weighted here today compared to Sadaqa. Goes well at track. Has to improve.
6. Marli Magic: Had her chances on speed last start in similar company with a low weight and just simply wasn’t good enough. Jockey not notified so not sure where her weight will land on the day. Needs to run up to two back run to be any chance.
7. Siegestor: Comes out of the Duke of Brunswick form race at Pakenham two back. Last start ran fairly well in harder company 3rd to Precious Gem at Flemington over 1400m from out the back. Up to 1600m looks ideal and he is certainly going the right way this prep.
8. Tucanchoo: Well backed first up and showed very little in easier grade. Not very well weighted for mine up to this grade and i’m happy to take on.
Comments: Happy to be playing in this race. There are really only 3 main chances on my form without massive improvement and two stand out at the prices.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Sadaqa for 1.5 units @ $6.50 to win. Siegestor for 1 unit @ $4.75 to win.
Moonee Valley Race 3
2. Bet You She Rocks: Two strong runs in a row at course and similar distances with a 0.5L and 1L defeat. Down in grade again back to the FM grade, looks more than fairly weighted after the claim. Will find a position on or just off the speed. 8 runs 4 places no wins at track only concern but certainly back in grade enough here.
4. Zambezi Diamond: Fair win three back at MV in BM-64 grade. Last two runs in harder grades have been poor and hasn’t measured up. Has to improve for this.. big distance setup target – 0/2 from this distance in the past.
5. Young Nicola: Had every possible chance last start at Moonee Valley and My Obsession was simply too good. May be a nice place price today.
6. Sagacious Miss: Nice run 2nd last start at Sandown when beat home My Obsession that day. Going the right way and looks well weighted from the barrier.
7. Penny To Sell: Every possible chance the last two races after a strong run 0.5L 5th in mares grade three back. May need to go back down in distance to find her best
8. Primerio: Not the worst runner here today. Going well enough in easier grades with a win at Geelong. Last three runs have been fair but a few things wrong each run and hasn’t shown me enough to suggest the win.
9. Darcy’s Law: 4L winner from on speed off a slow time at Echuca last start. Not for mine.
Comments: Top pick in this race was scratched. While it certainly opens up the field a bit, Sagacious Miss and Bet You She Rocks are the clear top picks now.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Sagacious Miss and Bet You She Rocks
Moonee Valley Race 4
1. Bullpit: Very hard horse to follow. Won in Adelaide then a 4 horse race at Canterbury two back. Last start poor run in BM-85 grade at Rosehill running 2nd last. Goes okay at this track though and ran Tuscan Sling to 0.5L this prep over 950m.
4. Pathways: Won last prep first up. Perfect distance today for her and she made her way through the grades last prep and measured up in mares grade running a 0.2L 2nd. 3kg claimer onboard. Have to believe they will go back from the barrier or sit midfield at best.
5. Star Stealer: Weir runner who measured up as a 3YO with 0.5L off Rough Justice and 0.3L a different run off Husson Eagle over the 1000m/1100m distances. Firs tup only fair win over 970m in BM-70 grade. Obviously going to improve here with a month between runs and looks well suited.
6. Steel Trigger: Strong enough form this prep with consistent runs. Got the win last start over an average class of BM-70 grade and up in class again today. Has to improve. 3kg better off against Appalchian Annie for the four back run when 1.8L off her and blocked for a run.
7. Appalachian Annie: Continues to run well and continues to win this prep. Up in class again but well weighted again. Barrier 9 an obvious issue but will be pushing forward to get a spot. Could get caught 3-wide if not careful.
8. Bawcatme: Just ignore last start at Sandown and rate on previous runs. F&M 950m 0.1L 2nd two back at course is more than enough to tell you just how well she is going this prep. Looks to be under the radar here!
10. Young Tiers Jeuny: 0 wins 0 places first up in the past. 0 wins from 3 tries at track. 0 wins/places from 1 try at this distance. ALot against here needs the run. Has ability obviously.
11. Piccolo Miss: Every chance last start at MV and well beaten. Ran Star Stealer to 0.5L two back. Not for me.
12. Runsati: First up today. Last prep went through the grades to win a maiden and BM-64 and measured up in BM-70 but never made it this far. Take on.
Comments: Shocked by the price on Star Stealer today.. taking on trust that the Weir camp know the horse is as good as it appears. A few overs in the race but none more than Bawcatme and Steel Trigger.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Small bets on Bawcatme and Steel Trigger. Another approach i could entertain would be laying both Appalachian Annie and Star Stealer
Moonee Valley Race 5
1. Antelucan: Led last start down the Flemington straight and found one too good, getting past her late. Previous run at Sandown was a nice run 2nd to Indarra and sticking to the 1200m looks ideal. Barrier 1 so expect her to push for a forward position probably just off the speed. Has the ability on previous runs.
3. Charlie Garcon: Ran in 2YO grade last prep and was only fair, not the best. First up maiden failed hard but then last start just got the win at Sale. Issues with jumping well a big concern.
4. Artie’s Party: Close 4th at Balarat in this class last start over 1400m. Back to 1200m… hasn’t won since his maiden last prep.
5. Twisting Typhoon: Nice enough win first up at Sandown in Maiden class. Time wasn’t great but it was still a nice win. Take on trust.
7. Rocky Boomboa: Ran wide last start at course over 950m. Back up to 1200m looks better suited and will be trying to lead like a few others. Barrier a concern.
8. Tokyo Tycoon: Fair enough maiden win at Balarat last prep. Looks a nice type but that win was on soft track not good track. Looks to have ability.
9. Love Days: Won well first up at the bool and then went on with it last start in easier grade. Down in weights here and looks a very good type going forward. Respect.
12. Snitzel Music: Had to go back to FM grade to win a maiden. Hard to have on two runs this prep here. Has to improve.
13. Street Pride: Maiden winner and didn’t beat much that day. Has to improve.
Comments: Not overly impressed with this race. Love Days looks the real deal but this is a step up in grade again. Happy to bet around and go with Antelucan on the place if playing here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 8, 9
Strategy: Antelucan @ $2.00 to place.
Moonee Valley Race 6
1. Leica Day: Won three of his last four races including a 1800m race at Caulfield in this grade. Up in weight today but gets a claiming jockey onboard today. Wide barrier the only issue today but there isn’t a lot of pace in the race and he should have no issues getting a spot in running. Clearly good enough here.
2. Orator: Did a lot wrong last start at MV, but he still ran poorly. Hasn’t been going very well all runs this prep and i can’t see the required turn around in form here just yet.
3. Now’s The Time: Ran poorly last start at Sandown. Hard to forgive but that was really a poor run, but he has shown the ability in the past.
4. Use The Lot: Ran poorly last start at Caulfield coming off a good run behind Beau Brommel. The form hasn’t measured up out of that race. Not for mine here.
5. Ring Da Belle: Very strong run last start at Caulfield a close 2nd to Yulong Baby. Going the right way and looks ready to win.
6. Got You Double: Failed both runs we have seen this prep. Needs the run. Couldn’t be on him here even if he wins.
8. General James: Lame last start so probably a forgive. Two previous runs were average at best. Needs the run for mine coming off a lameness issue.
9. Jacks ‘N’ Kings: Winner over 3000m. Found nothing last prep. Needs further.
10. Above: BM-64 grade winner on heavy coming into this. Previous form is horrible. Hard to have here.
11. Rebel Rising: Had his chances all three runs this prep but found a few too good. Has to improve onwards again at the distance. Has the ability but never run in this grade.
12. Speed Gonzales: Very strong win last start at Sandown – bit of a surprise. 2nd placed horse came out and won a good race. Was a nice gap to 3rd also. Looks well weighted again from a positive barrier.
13. It’s A Gun: Maiden only winner up to this class today. Looks too hard a jump.
Comments: Two clear standouts here and i’m keen to be betting!
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 12
Strategy: Leica Day for 2 units @ $3.45 to win. Ring da Belle for 1 unit @ $5.10 to win.
Moonee Valley Race 7
2. Packing Empire: 3000m back to 2500m today. Ran 0.1L 2nd in this grade and distance three runs back. Going the right way form wise and will be rock hard fit ready for a staying war. Great barrier and even better weighted with the compressed scale.
3. Waxing: Poorly weighted today for mine based on previous runs. Hasn’t won since being in Australia. Has to improve.
4. Bajour: NZ import that measured up over 2000-2500m distances in Open grade. Last start ran very well at Flemington. Got pushed too far back and affected his run. Should go well today but barrier is the issue.
5. Bling Dynasty: Consistent type. Last two runs have been decent with a 2nd and a win. Up to 2500m should be suited you would expect, but he has never won in this grade previously.
6. Rocknet: Won an average BM-64 grade race last start at Sale. Big improvement needed to measure up to this. Never has in the past and I can’t see it here.
7. Spectacular Vision: Showed serious improvement last start at Sandown to win well. 2.5L 2nd behind Delicacy last prep and measured up at Sandown with the strong tempo on. Will be a long way back in running.
8. Kelkea: Looked every chance last start at Sandown. Continues to run ‘well’ but not here for mine.
11. Rangers Run: Bm-64 winner two back. Had every chance last start and well beaten by Bling Dynasty. Can’t see it here.
12. Slade De Cerisy: He goes okay but his last start run he should have won and was poor to the line. Never run this distance.
13. Vihanna Victory: Four runs this prep and shown nothing. Wants the distance but probably wants even further as well. Not for me.
15. Prince Kilkarlen: Couldn’t win a R-58…. shouldn’t be running here.
Comments: Four clear standouts here. Packing Empire is the top pick from Spectacular Vision.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 7
Strategy: Back both Packing Empire and Spectacular Vision to win.
Moonee Valley Race 8
2. Pin Your Hopes: Poor last prep honestly. Bad first up form. Has won in this class in previous preps. Not too well weighted for mine though. Will be going back from barrier.
3. Sirbible: Looks to be going forward from the barrier. Well back in class here today and looks very well weighted. Hard to beat.
4. Boomwaa: Will be going forward. Two runs to date haven’t been bad, but has to improve.
5. Word of Mouth: Never won over this distance. Never won first up. Surely not.
6. The Ruffian: Back from a Darwin prep. Needs further than this.
7. Bel Seal: First up today. Best runs in past have always been over 1400m+ though. Has ability but would be surprised first up here.
10. Judges: Did a great deal wrong last start at Ballarat. Good enough win previous start. Has shown ability.
11. Sir Mask: Very long last prep. Took a long time to find his very best runs though and never won in this grade. Need to see the run today.
12. Duibio: Proved to be a very good horse over further last prep. Can see him running well from barrier.
13. Clevadude: Two runs this prep has run well but yet to win. I can’t see the improvement needed straight away here.
14. Tykiato: Two strong runs heading into this. A win wouldn’t shock from strong barrier.
17. Badajoz: Ran nicely 2nd last start. Looks a nice type and you have to include in quaddie at very least.
Comments: Wide open race to finish the day. Sirbible the way to play on the E/W
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 4, 10, 12, 14, 17
Strategy: Sirbible E/W
