Welcome to The Profits form guide for 18 February 2016 at Moonee Valley. We are back after striking on Wednesday which turned out to be a blessing in disguise as we wouldn’t have had a great day with quiite a few upset results, the punting gods were kind! The fields at Moonee Valley look very nice for this time of year with the feature race a must watch. Our best of the day is short but sweet in the first and the price listed below will be higher at the jump. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – Miss Maggiebeel for 2.5 units @ $1.67 to place
Current odds on this market are set to 126%+ (370%+ on place markets) so the price i’ve had to list for Fixed is simply unfair, we know it will be closer to $1.75 in the morning and could even be $1.80 at BF on the day. On paper there are five chances in the race and Miss Maggiebeel went around as favourite in a harder race last start for a reason…. she simply wasn’t suited by the tempo. This will be run more to suit and the place price is the standout.
Moonee Valley Race 2 – Nevis for 0.75 units @ $7.5/$2.10 Each-Way
A competitive race on paper, Siegestor has been doing good things this prep in similar grades while Spreadeagled does look a nice type on the way up. One simply cannot ignore the runs of the Williams horses on Wednesday and you go in confident that Nevis is tip top and ready to go. This is a horse that went around $5.50 in a Group 1 back in Ireland in 2012… won a 3YO listed race by 9 lengths and is two runs for two wins over 1600m including his last prep run.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – Fab Fevola for 0.75 units @ $7/$2.25 Each-Way
We held fire last start and did not back Fabby for a few reasons, but the main reason was the weight. Today he comes into this down 3.5kg while Aunty Mo remains at the same weight and is third favourite in the race. I’m not worried about a few runners well fancied in the market, but I certainly respect the ability of Take Pride. It will be interesting to see if she has the ability to keep up. Let him roll Ollie.
Mooneey Valley Race 6 – Back Mujadale and Signoff
While i’m not putting bet amounts again this race so they won’t be offical plays, this is the main race of the day and I do think the price on offer for Mujadale looks over the odds… the horse will be ridden accordingly and will be hard to get past ensuring a strong tempo. That tempo will also suit Signoff who we know saw out a very strong tempoed Melbourne Cup behind Protectionist with the very best runs around this distance.
