Welcome to our ‘mini’ preview of the race we really want to bet into at Moonee Valley on Friday night 18 November 2016. This weekend is all about picking and choosing the races we want to preview and bet into as the grade of races continues to diminish with the Spring carnival coming to an end. We will be looking towards metro races in three states tomorrow to find out eight races to look at. I’m actually quite confident tonight in the fact that we very much have the right horses in the three races tonight and i’m especially keen in the 955m race in terms of the price. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Labuan Star – 2.5 units @ $3.20. In Fairness – 0.40 units @ $21
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Military – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $16/$3.60
Best Value Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 – Spanner Head – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.40
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 955m – Inglis 55 Second Challenge Heat 6
The key standout in this race at the prices is a horse i’ve rated quite well in the past in Military. The first up run didn’t show us a lot but the second up step back to 955m saw a very good run last start when not ridden out the final 100m behind Miss Vista where he would have gone close to winning. With the claim of Ben Allen, he is ideally setup to take a sit off the hot tempo out front and to come over the top late. The firmer the better.
Comments: This market has the race all wrong in terms of the prices on offer. Another Diamond is a horse that has shown it’s best runs in the past on soft tracks and after a 30’C day yesterday and winds expected all throughout the day, this will be a genuine Good 3 track for the race with the rail not being the 100% best place to be. I’m expecting Military to have every possible chance from out the back to get past this lot when it matters.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Military – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $16/$3.60
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 2040m – Marcus Oldham Equine Management Handicap
Spanner Head is the value in the market here based on everything I saw last start as well as previous runs. She is very much a tough unit that form barrier 2 will get a strong position in running and will appreciate a strong final 600m which is how I see it being run.
Comments: This is a real strange race when you look at the formlines of the favourites in the race. The bookies have gone up based on trainer names and horse potential rather than what has been shown on the track this time in.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Spanner Head – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.40
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1200m – Marcus Oldham Agriculture Handicap
Labuan Star won very well first up at Kyneton sitting just off the speed runners in what was a genuinely strong contest. He had to run down the leader that put a gap on them with 400m to go and got there well in the straight strongly. Big gap to third on the day. Looks the IDEAL type to win at Moonee Valley off that run and loves a firm track. The main competitior on my ratings is the top weight In Fairness. The horse has always run well first up in the past and there is no reason to suggest that won’t happen here. In Fairness looks the likely leader and should have improved significantly in the break pasted on the procession between preps last year.
Comments: Two clear standouts in this race on my ratings and i’m happy to back both.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Labuan Star – 2.5 units @ $3.20. In Fairness – 0.40 units @ $21
