Welcome to The Profits form guide for 18 March 2016 at Moonee Valley. Due to time restrictions this week and the focus on Golden Slipper day, there won’t be any in-depth analysis posted for the three races of the bets below, but I can ensure you that the same amount of time has been put into making the decisions on these bets and i’m looking forward to a great evening of racing from Moonee Valley. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 – French Emotion for 2.75 units @ $2.20 to win
I’m convinced this horse is Group class. On form to date, the very best run this prep was over the 1200m and the stable obviously agrees, pulling the horse back to 1200m. Stays in the same class as the easy last start win and maps perfectly from a middle barrier. Can sit forward or sit out the back and win.
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 – Palentino for 2.25 units @ $1.80 to win
Group 1 winner last start. The only question here is if the horse can stay a strong 2000m. On everything I have seen to date, the answer is yes. There are no absolute world beaters here and on paper there are really just 2 chances to potentially beat Palentino. I’m very happy to take the $1.80 back in this class knowing where the horse is heading and the ratings the horse has to deliver today at equal weights with the rest of the field.
Best Each-Way Bet
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Miss Seton Sands for 1.25 units @$5/$2 Each-Way
The bookies just haven’t caught on to how good this horse really is with the price they are betting today. Don’t expect her to go back to last like last start at Flemington. That was a very strange ride but it worked. If anything, last start showed that not only can she tough out a win from on speed off a tough tempo as proven in New Zealand, but if she does find herself in a position where she needs to drift to worse than midfield, that she has the closing ability and sectionals to sprint with the best of them.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
