Welcome to The Profits form guide for 14 March 2016 at Moonee Valley. Super Saturday was a nightmare for everyone involved and us included. It’s hard to take a day of such heavy losses when nothing goes right, but you have to take it on the chin and move on. Looking around at results from other services and the general public and it did seem to simply be a day when form didn’t hold up and first up runners excelled at prices that were not value. We look at the Moonee Valley card today and while it isn’t the classiest fields you will ever see, there are four bets that stand out. All we need to do is land one and we are in front for the day, but I’d like to see at least two get home based on my ratings of these runners in their races. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Melbourne Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 – Giddyup for 2.25 units @ $6/$2.25 Each-Way
I’m convinced Giddyup is the real deal. As long as she jumps well today she will position on the speed and be allowed to stride out like last start. Looks the ideal type to progress to the 1600m and will take an awful good horse to beat today. Rates VERY well at the odds available.
Next Best Melbourne Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Thames Court for 1.5 units @ $6/$2.25 Each-Way
Thames Court should be find the lead and be very hard to get past based on previous preps runs. Very happy to take the price on offer against these runners.
Other Melbourne Bets
Moonee Valley Race 8 – Harbour Grey for 1 unit @ $6/$2.15 Each-Way
Moonee Valley Race 1 – Valtimor for 1 unit @ $7.50/$2.20 Each-Way
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 8, 13
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 8, 11, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 9, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 4, 7, 9, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1200m – City Jeep Plate
1. Groote Eylandt: Racing style has seen this bloke have a few unlucky runs. Should have broken his maiden by now on previous runs and if he gets the right run, will be in the finish again.
2. Montana: Very strong run last start at Ballarat when had a few things go wrong, but overall was a nice run heading into this today. Looks a good type. Will be far back is the issue.
3. Same Nonno: Laing yard runner. First up run was fine but well beaten. Others preferred on current form.
5. Sangre Caliente: Moody stable runner. Just missed in a maiden as a 2YO. Two runs this prep have been fair but well off the mark. Hard to see the improvement required and barrier is awkward.
6. Tan Tat Charger: First prep was okay but nothing to shout about. Ran an okay second in a maiden. Moody should have him firing here today.
7. Valtimor: 0.1L off Golden Spin in maiden grade last prep.. a horse that went onto run 0.1L 2nd in a Group 3. Best runs in past over this distance and looks very well rated from barrier 2 going forward.
8. Nom De La Danse: NZ import. Two runs to date were fair at best. Happy to take on.
9. Time Commands: Beaten as favourite last start at Pakenham but ran nicely enough. Going the right way and will probably be ridden quieter.
10. Ameristralia: Another day, another Hawkes runner that is yet to prove herself but goes around at a short price. Sure, she went well last prep in maiden class but didn’t get a win. First up run did a lot wrong as well. Couldn’t take that price.
11. Lady Slevior: Yet to get within 2.8L of a win in four runs to date. Struggle to suggest on last start run.
Comments: The market has this one wrong as always. Valtimor is the clear value in the race and well worth a bet today. Maps very well and has the right jockey and form lines against a group of non winners. Ran 5th in a 3YO race at course for a reason!
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Valtimor for 1 unit @ $7.50/$2.20 Each-Way
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1000m – City Jeep Patriot Plate
1. Pearl Congenial: Disappointing run first up when showed very little. Previous prep was a stop class 2YO. Better than last start.
2. Pearl of the plain: Almost snuck home a win at Kyneton first up at big odds from out the front in plain time. On speed again today.
4. Flying Jess: Well backed only run of last prep and pulled up shin sore. Obviously a good type and has had time to recover. Respect.
5. Gretna: Well backed Waller runner. Went on speed and pulled up poorly with a failed run. Much better than first up run.
6. Let ‘Em Howl: Never seen on track. Market only guide.
7. Miss Missile: One barrier trial which didn’t tell me a lot. Market your guide.
8. Moqla: Well backed first up runner for Hayes yard. Good type on breeding. Never seen. Market your guide.
9. My Aim Is True: Not as well backed as other Hayes yard runner. Never seen. Market your guide.
10. Platinum Magic: Nice enough trial heading into this. Laing yard.. have some decent 2YO types… don’t be put off by the price if you want to bet her.
11. Wazamba: Trial winner. O’Shea runner. Have to suggest she is a nice type on what we have seen so far.
12. Jennifer Lynn: Weir runner. First time on track. Breeding suggests needs further. Drifter.
Comments: How can I recommend a bet here? It’s still a joke that we have unseen runners racing for such high prize money.
Confidence 20%
Strategy: Wazamba each-Way
Moonee Valley Race 3 – City Jeep Compass Handicap
1. Dynamic Day: 2YO winner in top class race at Flemington over 1400m. Since then failed to measure up in 3YO grade. This prep went close last start when had every chance at the bool over 1300m. Up to 1600m probably ideal but it’s a long way back to that form she showed at her peak… does have the highest peak of all here.
2. Miss Wilson: Did a lot wrong last start at Caulfield when over raced and still ran very well. Well back in grade here and will start clear favourite from a positive barrier.
3. Sistine Spirit: Nice type who measured up at higher levels. First up run was horrible.
4. Alittle Loose: Nice maiden win last prep and then just wasn’t suited by the strong tempo over 2000m. Has ability.
5. Belsapphire: Maiden winner last start. Well beaten previous start in maiden behind Catch A Fire. Has to improve but is looking for the extra distance.
6. Giddyup: 8 length winner last start at Bendigo. The time was sound as well. Hard to ignore.
8. Campanula: Running well this prep in easier class and finally broke through for a win. Big step up again.
9. Jezzabba: Hawkes stable so expect them to back it as always. Did alot wrong last start and blocked for runs.
10. Royal Applause: Going well this prep and has to be considered on current form lines. Will get back from bad barrier.
11. Triple Effort: Strong maiden victory third up this prep. Much harder here but obviously had class.
12. Artesian: O’Shea runner. Won an average maiden. Not convinced she is good enough.
13. Mount Omei: Couldn’t win a maiden.
14. Abolish: Can run well but best left to place betting on this girl for mine. Too big a step again.
Comments: I’m convinced Giddyup is the real deal. As long as she jumps well today she will position on the speed and be allowed to stride out like last start. Looks the ideal type to progress to the 1600m and will take an awful good horse to beat today. Rates VERY well at the odds available.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Giddyup for 2.25 units @ $6/$2.25 Each-Way.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – City Jeep Wrangler Handicap
1. Global Assault: Done stuff wrong the last three starts so hard to get a gauge of how he is going. Barrier 14 doesn’t help his chances of a trouble free run.
3. Surge Ahead: His going qutie well this prep with strong 2nds at MV and Flemington over this distance. Two of last three runs were not great, but back to dryer tracks and a course he runs well on today. Would love to see them ride him forward again for once but I suspect they ride him cold again from the barrier.
4. Diamondcowboy: Country grade up to city grade today. Goes okay at distance but 76 runs to date you know just how good he is and it’s not this good for mine.
5. Barwon: Nice enough maiden win first up this prep. Could be anything so has to be considered straight up into this grade.
6. Tom Puss: Last win on heavy. Never won on good track. Has chances all runs this prep and just hasn’t delivered.
7. Turf Crusher: Started favourite the last two starts and been beaten 2.8 and 3.5 lengths. Better than this but struggle to suggest after those runs.
8. Figlio: The stable were very confident he would get the win last start at Terang and that’s just what happened as favourite. 59kg doesn’t look a great weight today but from barrier 5 you can expect him to sit just off the speed and to be hitting the line strongly among runners.
9. Evil Lil: Nice enough win last start at Bendigo coming off a solid Ballarat and Pakenham run. Going more than well enough this prep. Barrier issue to get a good spot in run.
10. Absolutelycertain: Four runs this prep and after winning a R-58 hasn’t been within 2.8L of a win even as favourite last start. Will run well enough but has to improve in this class.
11. Keepcalmandcarryon: 9 of last 10 runs in R-58 grade. Well beaten by diamondcowboy last start. Hard to have.
12. Sir Sagamore: Good run 2nd to Hattori Hanzo in 3YO grade and takes step up to open class. Going the right way. Tricky barrier.
14. Prescience: Import that looks to be wanting further.. just missed in a maiden first up over 1600m and should have won well.
Comments: Another wide open race. I couldn’t have the favourite at the price here up into open grade coming off 3YO form from a tricky barrier. Slight lean to Surge Ahead but I’m not betting here.
Confidence 55%
Strategy: Surge Ahead E/W
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1200m – City Jeep Cherokee Handicap
2. Danuki: Every possible chance last start at Sale and was very disappointing. I don’t think it was the fact it was a 1000m race either. Well up in the weights today back down to 3YO class.
3. Land of Freedom: Very nice win last start at Sandown when went around big odds and was well backed in late. Has ability. Good barrier.
4. Turbo Miss: Two wins in a row in open class then last start to harder class in 3yo grade just missed at course and distance running wide during race. Barrier hurts chances today but clearly a horse with top ability.
5. Dane Thunder: Just missed first up in CL1 class. Measured up okay last prep in this grade. On first up run has to improve but going the right way.
6. Pearl Star: Looked a very nice type two preps back when winning in 2YO listed grade. Last prep best run was over further in much harder class. Has ability but barrier certainly hurts chances again today and never won first up or at distance.
7. Rich Charm: First up off a prep where he got a maiden win and that’s it. Hard to have for mine.
8. Thames Court: The horse in the race with the most talent on everything I’ve seen of it to date. I have a high opinion of Thames Court and her best runs were over 1200-1400m and on speed. Should land in the lead and even if she doesn’t she will get a very good run into this. If she has returned close to her best she is hard to beat.
9. Always: Maiden win first up then well beaten last start. Have to ignore the last start run but maiden win wasn’t good enough for mine to consider here.
10. Nadawaat: 2YO winner first prep ever. Since then not been within 3.3L of a win. Has ability but haven’t seen it in a long time.
13. Labuan Star: 3L maiden winner. Last start heat stress got him. 2nd to Petitis Filous as a 2YO.
14. Scatter Blast: Easy maiden win then progressed nicely enough for a 3rd to Cool Snitzel at Sandown even though he was well beaten. Has ability.
15. Roseberry Street: Maiden only winner. Can’t have here.
Comments: Thames Court should be find the lead and be very hard to get past based on previous preps runs. Very happy to take the price on offer.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 8, 13
Strategy: Thames Court for 1.5 units @ $6/$2.25 Each-Way
Moonee Valley Race 6 – City Jeep Grand Cherokee Handicap
1. Rose of Texas: Got a win at the Bool at big odds five runs back then hasn’t shown very much since. Hard to suggest.
2. Heavy: Massive disappointment last start. Couldn’t back him with stolen money at the price today.
4. Super Haze: Huge maiden win first up. Failed to measure up last start at Sandown. Up in distance obviously suits him better.
5. Three Points: Awkward barrier but should get a nice enough spot. Strong runs the last two starts and based on those runs should measure up.
6. Forever True: Went around favourite last start and didn’t run badly but found two too good. Has ability but has to improve again.
7. London Fog: Beat home Forever True last start only just. Has ability but surely has to improve. Does have a consistent record of running top 3.
8. Choux Diva: Back in class today after running very well at course and distance. Disappointing barrier but going well enough to consider.
9. Miss Hissy: Going okay this prep. Won two back but no excuse last start. Has to improve.
10. Remorse: Hard to see the win here today. 12 runs for 0 wins at distance.
11. Choix De Maia: Ran very well last start at Pakenham. Back in class here. Has ability and nice barrier.
12. Faraja: 6 length win in R-58 grade. Can’t overlook today based on that run.
13. Shiny Lass: Going okay this prep and has gone nicely close the last two starts. Has to improve on those runs though.
14. Fionn Mccool: One i’m happy to take on here. Not good enough.
15. Lyrical Son: 4L winner last start over 1600m. Never run this distance. Has to improve.
Comments: Wide open race.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 8, 11, 12
Strategy: Choux Diva E/W
Moonee Valley Race 7 – City Jeep Grand SRT Handicap
1. Magnus Slipper: Just ignore last start at Caulfield. Previous run at Sandown was more than good enough. Record reads 0 placing from 2 at distance and 0 placings from 5 at distance, but she is much better than those suggest. Clear chance.
2. No Excuses Bec: Two runs this prep and showed very little on either occasion. Best runs in past have been over this distance and 3 weeks between runs is ideal. Won in F&M grade so suggests if back to her best then she can run well here.
3. Quicksilver Lass: Doesn’t win out of turn or even in turn it seems. Best runs have been in the country or interstate. Hard to have.
4. Pindan Pearl: Going the right way this prep. Last start wide and stuck on strongly enough to suggest she can run well here up to 2000m. Don’t dismiss her.
5. Tears of Joy: Six runs this prep already so will be coming to the end of prep soon. Won 2 of last three races and placed in all of her last 4. Back in class today and barrier one, will get the lead and looks to be hard to beat if at her best.
6. Winta Chiller: Certainly doesn’t win out of turn. Back in class here but hasn’t been running well enough for mine to suggest especially up to 2000m.
7. Domino Vitale: A nice type, she has been running well over the 1400-1600m distances. First time ever over 2000m coming off her two worst runs this prep.
8. Durbrovnik: Went back in class to get a win last start at Sale. Up in class again here and I’d suggest she still has to improve on that run.
9. Jennio: Continues to be well backed as she goes through the grades slowly. Started single figures the last 7 runs and favourite 3 times, but only won 1 of them, well enough beaten the other 6 times that she was never a threat to win. Poor barrier hurts chances. Has to improve onwards.
10. Miss Maggiebeel: Very well backed last start and they just ran it along way too fast and she did way too much work that she was never a chance. Suggest on previous runs that she is much better over 1600m or will need a slower 2040m today. Won’t get it.
11. Rather Heroic: Last start winner in harder company. Still well enough weighted all things considered today. Likes the pace tough also. Suited.
12. Dynamic Balance: Hard to have on current form.
Comments: Certainly one of the harder races of the day with five key winning chances and more outside of that.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 9, 11
Strategy: Back Tears of Joy and Magnus Slipper
Moonee Valley Race 8 – City Jeep Renegade Handicap
3. Walk This Way: Surprised a few last start at Pakenham when midfield from an awkward barrier and won very well. Again has drawn an awkward barrier but equal class and not that badly in at weights after claim. Have to respect and will be finishing off the race well.
4. Harbour Grey: Hasn’t missed a place in five runs this prep. Back in class here after a freshen up and back in distance to 1200m. Nice enough barrier to get a good spot in running as long as he doesn’t jump poorly. Placed in BM-90 class this prep for a reason. Rates highly.
5. Jetello: Two runs to date and hasn’t been within 3.3L of the winner this prep. Last prep went okay in similar class but best was on a softer track.
6. Mywordsaidthebird: Old mate is a good type. Much better run last start at the bool winning well in easier class. Has to improve but his best is good enough to run well from the barrier.
7. Magicus: Waller runner with a large amount of ability. Gone through the grades and measured up. Last start beaten fairly at Sandown by a good type in Fast Cash in a nicely rated race. Wide barrier an issue as will be pushing forward but expect them to try and lead.
8. Costa Plenty: Two runs this prep have been less than up to par to measure up to this level. Take on.
9. Mick’s Hustler: Continues to run well this prep without getting a win on the board. On two back run has the ability to win.
10. Found My Way: CL1 winner two back, went around near favourite last start at Pakenham and was fairly beaten. Has to improve on that effort.
11. Mawahibb: Disappointing run first up at course and distance when 2L 3rd. Measured up to the top level in 2 and 3YO grades. Expect a much better run today and maps well.
12. Caprese: Ran well last start at course and distance beating home Mawahibb. Poor barrier hurts his chances here though.
14. Emperor’s Chariot: BM-64 grade winner and failed to fire last two starts in this grade. Hard to have.
15. Tycoon Tony: CL1 winner and couldn’t win in BM-64 grade the last three starts. Has ability but not here today.
Comments: Quite a few chances on paper but only three key standouts. At the prices and from mapping I’m very happy to take the price on Harbour Grey.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 4, 7, 9, 11
Strategy: Harbour Grey for 1 unit @ $6/$2.15 Each-Way
