Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on 1 August 2015. Our most confident bet of the year in Volcanic Ash secured a very easy victory for us last week at Caulfield and the day was capped off with Miss Rose De Lago winning the last with a few other winners throughout the day. We make our way back to Moonee Valley to start the new year hopefully with a bang. It’s a fairly interesting card all things considered with a fair few speculation tips on the card. I can see a fair bit of value and hope we can land a big fish. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 – Tawteen to win
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 – Il Cavallo to win
Melbourne Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 9 – Red Fella on the Each-Way
Melbourne More Value Bet
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Leveraction on the Each-Way
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 11, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1000m – United Refrigeration Handicap
Haybah: This filly is proven quality over the 1000m distance having run Thurlow and Fontition to 0.5L and 0.3L last prep before winning a 1050 2F-LR race. She will be on speed today from a positive barrier 3.. only concern is the stable isn’t jumping out of the stands suggesting she can win this.
The Big Dance: Trained the house down and was a huge local tipup on the day when winning very well the feature at Bendigo for her only run last prep. Expect her to have trained on well and will be on speed today from barrier 2. Hard to beat if a repeat of last start.
Grisbi’s Run: Won two in a row this prep then found out big time last start by the heavy track. Back to dryer should see a better run today but still has to improve to measure up.
Petits Filous: Hard to dispute what she did first up on the heavy track out the front with a 6 length victory. Clearly has class. Continue to back her.
Maternal: Got the win first up this prep over 1200m then failed on the heavy last start. Back to 1000m looks an interesting move today.. not sure she is top class material just yet.
Classy Chanel: Decent maiden win first up but this is much harder from what i’ve seen to date. Trainer agrees, hard field to beat.
Deja Blue: Struck through for the maiden win last start with a fair bit of ease. Looks to have class but has to take a big step today to measure up. Like to see it a few more runs in.
Stream Ahead: 900m winner last start maiden win last prep. Massive improvement needed to beat all these.
Comments: Petits Filous looks the real deal on paper, but can you really take the 6L victory on Heavy as gospel winning $40k compared to The Big Dance who struck a 170k win first up with a 2.3L win on a Good track in very fast time… the prices just look wrong to me especially from the barriers.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: The Big Dance to win.
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1000m – 1Print Handicap
Bantam: Very average last prep compared to previous prep when won at course and distance as a 2YO. Didn’t measure up to the best of the best and also had breathing issues. Does have to find his best.
Pure Justice: Heavy track 2YO winner and then back to Soft track as favourite but well beaten by a fair time in Abu Dhabi. Obviously needs to improve on that run to beat this lot.
Equinova: Took a few runs this prep to find his best and certainly needed to find a heavy track. Going to be no where near that today but it’s hard to ignore the win last start and to consider if it was simply the horse hitting form? Keep an eye on him.
Top Me Up: Leader with good speed out of the barriers from barrier 1. You know we had a huge opinion of this horse in it’s first prep but the Hawkes stable pulled the plug knowing he was just a little short of the Blue Diamond win. By all reports he is training very well and should be very hard to get past over the 1000m today especially if not challenged for the lead.
Demonstrate: Going well enough this prep to suggest he is a chance. Won a maiden with ease but well beaten last start by a very smart type in Jalan Jalan at Flemington… no disgrace that run though at all, just think he isn’t top top class as proven.
Destiny’s Reward: Ran well enough first prep to suggest he has a few wins in them. From what i saw I have to suggest there are a few better in this race today.
Attack The Line: Impressive trial win, very hard to miss really… but putting it all together on track is another kettle of fish. Looks unders.
Him Name Jim: Will be pushing forward from wide out. Maiden only winner nad measured up only to that grade, failing in harder. Have to take on today.
Star Planet: Equal weight today with Demonstrate after defeating the horse by 0.5L last start yet double the price! Good barrier and will take a sit 3 back the rails or so and have last crack at them. Needs luck.
Comments: I don’t see a great deal of pace in this race and i’m expecting Top Me Up to get the lead with not too much trouble, stack them up and have the ability to grind out a win as long as Attack The Line isn’t a Group 1 superstar in the making.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Top Me Up to win.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1000m – Melbourne Signage Concepts Handicap
Hard Romp: 8 Starts fro 0 wins at this track! One of many that will be pushing forward and has the ability to win a tough battle with the speed on. Expect Katie will sit just outside the leader of just off the back of the leaders. Will get his chance.
Sea Lord: Got away with murder out front two runs back at course over the 1200m… won’t get that today with the top weight in this. Obviously have to respect having won 5 from 10 at track.
Our Nkwazi: Continues to run very well. Last start down the Flemington straight surprised with a 3rd! Last win was at course this prep and last start showed 1000m was enough.
Mr Make Believe: Three runs to date this prep and failed to place in all three. Showed very little last start. Has won at track previously and 1000m is his distance on previous preps.
Il Cavallo: Very nice win last start at Flemington and you would expect to see him go on with that form today. Barrier 3 is ideal and will just get either out the front or just off the back of the leaders and should have no excuses on the run he gets today.
Sweet Emily: How good is she? Last prep she won 4 of 7 runs but majority were in easier grade. The testing material today and best runs have been further into preps.
Pistolier: Took 4 runs to find a win this prep but back in class beat an average bunch over in Adelaide. Big step up in class today the issue.
Comments: Hard Romp has had every chance in the past at this track and hasn’t been able to find a win which is a massive concern. Il Cavallo looks well suited today by the track and the price on offer at $3+ looks more than appropriate.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Il Cavallo to win.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1600m – Mitchelton Wines Handicap
Hula Lua: I think shes a very good type over distances and this has been proven in the past even though she is lightly raced for a 7YO! First up she ran very well when having no luck and then last start had breathing issues. Has won twice in the past at this grade and won 2 from 3 attempts at this track. Will get back in the run but from barrier 5 shouldn’t be right out the back and should have her chances if the tempo is run as expected.
Spirit of Heaven: Thought she ran very well at Flemington last start when no chance from the positionin in running dead last. Finished within 2 lengths of the win and steps well back in class here up to the 1600m which is where she won her last race by a long distance. Wide barrier means you can expect to see her out the back again unless if they decide to be more handy which hasn’t been advised.
To Be Honest: Very disappointing run last start and absolutely no excuse for it off two decent runs apart from the fact she may have just had enough after two solid runs. This is a step up in class again today make no mistake… barrier 3 sees her map very well but last start is certainly concerning coming into this.
Dig A Pony: Sat out the back with Spirit of Heaven last start at Flemington and hit the line well. Think she is getting back to the class we saw more than a year ago which saw her winning races… but my huge concern is her on this track. Best runs clearly been with a long wind up down the straight. Horses for courses.
Aliyana: Four runs this prep and failed to place in all 4 runs. Doesn’t look like the same horse we saw last prep… needs a few more runs to find form it appears?
First Bloom: No disgrace all runs this prep but did have every possible two back when missed behind Every Faith. Last start run also had every possible on a track that should have suited… back to dryer a concern on current form.
Shadow of the Mist: Looks the leader today. Going just okay if i’m honest and even though she ran well here out the front last start, this race on paper looks significantly harder.
Savannah Moon: Went around big odds last start at Bendigo and won very well in an average form race. The writing was on the wall from the three back run at Flemington. This looks much harder though and will need to take the next step up.
Domino Vitale: Very interesting runner today. Took a long time to find that maiden win but once she found it she has gone through the grades well this prep including a nice 3rd in 3YOF class last start behind Herstory. Looked to be wanting extra distance when hitting the line last start and should be suited to a wider barrier today I feel getting every chance off the rail.
Takeover: Looks outclassed today at the weights on current form. Can place but can’t see a win in her in this grade.
Comments: Very tough race on paper. Hula Lua, Spirit of Heaven, To Be Honest, Dig a Pony, First Bloom, Domino Vitale and even Shadow of the Mist to an extent rate as winning chances… very few that can’t win in this one and that doesn’t figure out as a profitable betting race on my books.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Two horse play. Hula Lua & Domino Vitale equal stakes to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 2040m – Jockey Celebration Day Handicap
Bagman: Huge win last start at Flemington.. it was a bit of the horse running to an absolute peak being ridden further forward than previous starts and a bit of Oliver getting him over the line. One run for one win at this course in the past and barrier 1 looks ideal to sit midfield the rail and get the last shot at them. has to be considered on current form as a leading chance.
Diametric: There was a tip-up for him last start at Caulfield and he didn’t disappoint finding the line strongly to finish just 2 lengths off the win. Get the feeling he needs another run today to bring him on though.
Lord Durante: Just ignore the fact he went around last start and rate on two previous runs. Best seen on soft to good which we should get today. Loves the track and generally runs well even if he doesn’t win. Rates nicely at weights.
At First Sight: Hasn’t won a race since his maiden in 2009… yep he is a 9YO now… still… has won $874,000 in prize money so can’t exactly laugh at that. Looked a good thing beat a few times last prep and up to 2000m will certainly see improvement.. but suspect he wants a few more runs to find best and a wider track.
Hioctdane: Consistent type. Won 4 in a row before well beaten at Caulfield by Lord Durante and then finding one too good last start in Adelaide. Has the ability and will roll forward.
Our Voodoo Prince: One time Caulfield Cup favourite… it’s been a long time between drinks for this once very talented galloper. They have tried everything and just keep finding a few too good. To be fair a 2nd to Pornichet
isn’t terrible form in Group 3 company this prep, but has been well beaten the last 2 runs. Back to a firmer track may have him better in.
Honourable Aussie: Old mate loves to pop up wit a win out of the blue and while he was running well last prep he just couldn’t get a win. Rolled forward to lead last start and got the win well at the bool. Has ability.
Venture On: Though he ran on very well last start all things considered. Never looked a winning chance for mine with the others swooping but did run well. Can run well again.
Distant Dreams: Massive step up in class for this girl who is just simply outclassed here. Place at best.
Ruary Mac: Shouldn’t even be on this track, it’s an insult. Couldn’t win BM-50’s this prep.
Comments: Team Waller vs Team Weir if the betting is anything to go by! Distant Dreams will make sure the speed is on out the front and Bagman will be the one to beat.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Bagman to win.
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1200m – Ranvet Handicap
Mighty Like: Start of last prep looked a very good type winning two open grade races over 1200m and 1400m but then fell away later into his prep. Very good first up record so hard to ignore today and maps okay enough.. no issues with ground.
Nearest To Pin: Hasn’t won the last two preps but has been running consistently well in higher grade all prep including a second last start and two back at track and distance. Either way hasn’t been close to the win on any of those occasions though which is a worry with top weight today.
The Thief: Not the worst first up run you will see down the straight last start but I was expecting alot better on the wet track which should have suited. Have to take the thief on today.
Supreme Warrior: Last win was on heavy up in Sydney over 1400m.. so alot against that today. Ran well enough two back at course and distance when blocked for runs but failed hard next start. Oliver onboard, has ability to win.
Tawteen: Very good type.. 3F-GP3 placed behind earthquake and Eloping.. 3F-LR winner by 3.5L at course and distance going all the way… won here last prep in F&M grade as a short priced favourite but was disappointing the next two runs… has the ability well above the rest of these on her best day and stable are keen on her chances. Won 3 from 4 at track.
Mr Good Cat: Continues to run well without going close. Place chance on previous form.
Red Corner: Did alot wrong over-racing last start down the straight but did beat Rich Jack the previous run which is okay form lines. Consider.
Snippetee Bee: Goes okay first up… has won in open class in Tassy and has okay form over distance and even won well at Seymour last prep, but failed to measure up to top level. Has ability.
Flash of Doubt: Won four runs back then shown nothing since. Hard to have.
Valiant Warrior: Tassy runner who didn’t disappoint first up down the straight when losing a plate and doing alot wrong. Obviously has to show more than that effort today to be measuring up, but you have to consider him a chance.
Neverending Valley: Looks outclassed on form so far this prep and in the past.
Comments: Very happy to be backing Tawteen at the price today. Rates very well in this class at the weights and stable is confident.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 10
Strategy: Tawteen to win
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1600m – Jeep Handicap
Instrumentalist: Best runs over further. First up run clearly showed needs another run.
Streets Away: Not the worst run home all things considered last start at Flemington behind Charmed Harmony, but still has to keep improving which generally occurs 2nd up with this horse. Goes well at this track… best over further in the past though.
Ruscello: Long way back to this today returning from injury. Expect he needs the run and is wanting further.
Count of Limonade: A long time between drinks for this bloke, but he isn’t the worst at all going around today… but last prep and this prep hasn’t been within 4L of a victory… needs further for sure.
Digitalism: 6 weeks between runs but 8 weeks if you consider the fact he never got a run last start in the straight! Was a moral beaten that day. Back to 1600m today a huge concern for mine.. believe his best is over further than this and may just see him lose it.
Sino Eagle: Thought her last two runs were improved and she continues to get fitter into this prep. Step up to 1600m is an unknown though that doesn’t look to be what is required for this girl to get a breakthrough.
Freshwater Storm: Very good run last start at Flemington and will be fitter for the run. gets a more suitable ground today but 7 runs fro 1 place at this track… his best is at Caulfield and never gives us alot here.
Lake Sententia: Shown nothing all prep and doesn’t expect different today.
Vizhaka: Ran home nicely enough last start behind Charmed Harmony but that is expected off that pace. Up to 1600m suits certainly.. best runs on fast tempos deeper into preps than this.
Pin Your Hopes: Shown nothing all prep after a good 2nd up run.. hard to suggest even with a break between runs.
Raposo: Hard to speak poorly of him… but $2.20 favourite first time up in open grade after winning in 3YO company… yes the runs were good and impressive, but is there enough speed in this race today? I couldn’t take the odds.
Leveraction: Finally back up in distance after three runs this prep. Expect them to be pushing forward with no weight today to steal the race. Don’t be surprised if it happens!
Comments: On paper this is a very average field with many a runner just going around for fitness today it appears. That is a concern for the $2.2 faovurite Raposo that will have horses falling back onto him if he doesn’t go around them. So you have the favourite almost certain to be going 5-6 wide. Leveraction is the value in the race at $71/$15 best price around currently with 51kg after claims… I can see a stack them up then just go from 800m out kind of run and it could work here especially if the rail is on.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 11, 12
Strategy: Leveraction Each-Way (I’ll most likely be 2 units place 1 unit win)
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1200m – Sweeney Estate Agents Handicap
Bishops Castle: Found absolutely nothing last start at Flemington out the front when weighted so well in class that should have suited based on previous run at the course and distance. Up to 61kg today but still well in back in this class. Handles and enjoys this track well enough and will be on speed with Charles in Charge from the gate.
Charles in Charge: Will push forward, will try and lead, if not will sit outside the leader. Last 7 runs have all been places or a 4th and he is super consistent and well placed by the trainer. Well in again today although Bishop’s Castle with speed inside of him is a bit of a concern for getting the best run possible. Back to 1200m ideal.
Le Remas: Thought he ran better last start than all previous runs… but no, not winning this.
Morant: Impossible horse to catch. Will probably pop up with a blinding run today when i’m not on. Quaddie but that’s it!
Handsome Tycoon: Very disappointing run down the straight at Flemington last start… especially considering there was no issues in the past down the straight. Repeat of two back run goes well here.
Monkstone: Sold on but not forgotten, his last prep was very solid with some good runs! Never won first up in 4 preps and can’t see that changing first up here. Can run well though.
Kraftwerk: Good type that hasn’t shown us his best on the track i’d suggest. Barrier is horrible but he is consistent and up to 1200m today looks suited.
Grand Emperor: Beaten favourite all the last 3 runs.. hasn’t won for a year and a half as well! Continues to run well without looking a winning chance. Good barrier, hard to suggest he can’t win.
Lockroy: Very good type and down from Sydney to Melbourne for a reason. First up run had alot of merit at Flemington and looks well suited if sits midfield.
Grand Orator: Hard to see the improvement required based on last three runs. One to take on it seems.
Sir Mask: Very good run last start at Caulfield backing up off the three back win at Bendigo form wise. Has the ratings to run well.
Tiger’s Cub: Improved run last start at Pakenham out the front when winning. Up in class again today but has to be considered a minor chance.
La Venta: Showed nothing at all first up! First run at track and only measured up once previously in this class. May need a few runs to find best.
So Does He: Big win last start at Bendigo in much easier grade. Previous run at Flemington wasn’t bad at all when just simply too far back. Horrible barrier today though hurts chances… has clear ability and can measure up if gets a perfect ride.
Wilscot: Started single figures his last 6 runs.. won 3 of those but failed to place the last 2. First up today and goes okay first up but never measured up to this grade.
Jetello: Only beat Trustam last start.. clearly not a good form line to bring into this.. has been running okay though if you go back over form including 2nd to Pilly’s Wish. Very minor contender.
Rein In The Tiger: R-58 winner two back then couldn’t place in BM-64 last start.. no thanks.
Comments: The most open race of the day. Any horse could win this pretty much! Morant is a huge price at $41s if runs up to peak but honestly you just can’t take it. Lockroy is slight unders at the $6s but looks a good chance today and Charles in Charge is mega consistent as we know. Sir Mask looks a tough of overs also… as i said open race!
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, 14
Strategy: Charles in Charge E/W
Moonee Valley Race 9 – William Hill Handicap
Crafty Cruiser: Ran very well i thought last start behind Bagman and looks well suited back up to 2500m today. Always runs consistently well at Moonee Valley but doesn’t exactly win here with 1 from 15! Doesn’t map the best but you know he has the ability.
Multilateral: last prep won a listed race (as favourite) at Randwick. This prep has run dead last, 11L and 15L 2nd last. Hard to have.
Danchai: Won the cup over in Ipswich and then since then failed since with 5.5L 3rd, 2L 6th and 9L 5th. First time at track today and should appreciate a track that isn’t firm or heavy you would imagine. Barrier helps.
Cooldini: Close 2nd to Crafty two back then found nothing last start at Flemington. Only one peak run this prep is hard to follow into this race today form wise.
Reigning: Continues to run well this prep after beating Bagman. Track conditions look ideal and barrier 3 should see him hopefully not out the back today. Has the ability but 2500m does look a test.. but did get the 2350 last start.
Sir Mako: Beat Reigning two back but then failed hard last start at Canterbury. Hard to trust on that form. Looks to be wanting 2500m on NZ runs.
Kareeming: Very poor last start at Flemington over 1600m… no surprise just went for the run. Back to 2500m today and looks well suited as expected – beat home Crafty Cruiser two back.
Secessio: Think you probably just ignore last start and look to two back run. Has the ability to run very well today at his best.. but have to remember 0 wins from track to date and barrier is horrible.
Doctor Care: Continues to find a way to win. Had a very good prep to date and the 2500m looks ideal… question is if he has enough class to measure up.
Westsouthwest: Very poor run at Flemington last start compared to easier previous runs at Caulfield and MV. Clearly wants sting out and won’t get as much as wanted today.
Artistic Lass: Consistent type in mares grade but this is open class BM-96 today and looks a very tough ask. Place at best for mine.
Zazparella: Well beaten last start. Okay win on heavy two back… not going to be wet today though. Pass.
Red Fella: You have to respect the run two back 5th to De Little Engine at Flemington and ignore last start when it was too wet. Maps very well today from barrier 6 and looks a massive chance at big odds.
Thubiaan: Old mate just here for a run around today. Can still run well at this distance but can’t see a win.
Stand to Gain: Another jumper just here for a run between jumps to keep up the fitness.
Gold to Go: Gains a run. 4 runs for 0 places at track. Last start ran fairly at the Bool but that was a heavy track. Did run 2nd three preps ago over 2400m to Epingle in Group 3 company in Tassy but hasn’t found that form since.
Comments: Wide open race to end the day, Sir Mako looks a false 2nd favourite on my ratings while Reigning will need a hell of a ride to win as favourite. Red Fella maps perfectly to run a huge race at massive odds.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 13
Strategy: Red Fella E/W
