Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington and Rosehill on 12 September 2015. We continue to put in the extra effort and have been rewarded well once again last week with our best bet winning painlessly while our next best was money back + a little extra and the 2nd pick in that race was a $20+ winner which was very nice. If you were also following us on Twitter, you would have been pushed into a $65 winner, safe to say it was a good day at Moonee Valley last week. Enough about the past, we have a Flemington track today that looks like it will be playing very fair for all – i walked it on Wednesday and the Rosehill rail as always should give front runners every chance. At this stage in the year, I like to bet 2-3 horses in a race to secure a shorter price with higher confidence. Fingers crossed for another strong performance for our followers and we will continue to work extra hard to find the winners. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 – Three horse play – Boban/Fawkner/Rising Romance to win.
Back Boban for 1.3 units, Fawkner for 1.1 units and Rising Romance for 0.5 units. Odds of $2.20 on this bet at time of publishing (Top Fixed Tote prices – higher betfair)
Sydney Best Bet
Rosehill Race 5 – Bounding to win
Huge win first up in Melbourne smashing a quality field. Could go backwards from that performance and still be well in here today expecting Catkins to not be at 100% just like last prep as confirmed by the trainer.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 – Disposition to win
Disposition is the horse that maps beautifully in this race today. Proven in Group 1 races and the price is hard to pass up knowing the horse will be at least 3 lengths clear of the 2nd favourite entering the straight.
Melbourne Best Value
Flemington Race 2 – Prizum Each-Way
Hasn’t won in a long time but has been running consistently this prep. Today everything is in his favour and if he is going to ever win again, today is it and the double figure odds are very handy. 2 units to place 1 unit to win is also a betting option.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 7, 8, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 9, 15
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 8, 9, 11, 19
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1100m – Cap D’Antibes Stakes
Gear Changes: Lycia – Winkers First Time & Blinkers Off, Parcel – Tongue Tie Off
1. Thurlow: Ignore the fact she went around first up pulling up lame. A month between runs, G3 winner as a 2YO and measured up behind some good horses, handles the straight.
2. Petits Filous: Looks a very very good type over the sprint distances. Has to handle the straight today but if she does, looks a straight forward victory today even against these good types.
3. Strykum: Easy kill first up at Moonee Valley when well backed and was allowed to control tempo. 2nd placed runner failed next start in harder company.
4. My Poppette: Very good horse as proven first prep but best run was clearly the 1400m run… needs further to find best.
5. The Grey Flash: Winner in 2YO-G3 company over in Adelaide and 2nd to Last Bullet also. Obviously has ability but this is a step up for sure today.
6. Serenade: Could be value today. Proved to be a very good 2Yo including 2L defeat in the golden slipper which is nothing to sneeze at. Looks the type that will appreciate a straight track honestly.
7. Miss Idyllic: Very easy and strong win first up at Geelong… but didn’t beat much obviously. Going great guns by all reports at home and only run down the straight was a very good 4th as a 2YO in a GP3.
8. Take Pride: Not the worst run first up all things considered. Will be suited back down the straight on runs last prep and could be a bit of E/W value if you want to go that way.
9. Lycia: Never run a bad race yet but clearly looks the 2nd raters of the O’Shea stable too date. Have to take on here.
10. Payroll: Very good first prep and unlucky not to get a city win. Have to respect.
11. Nadawaat: Stable suggests she is going well enough at home to contest. Went around favourite only run down straight and failed to get close to the winner. Have to improve sharply from that run.
12. Parcel: First run off breathing issues. Have to take on.
13. Grey Street: hard to suggest on last start run.
14. Super Cash: Well beaten last start on heavy. Not sure i could recommend even a place here.
15. Hela Flyer: All you can do is space a field and he did that first up. Can run a decent race.
Comments: Petits Filous is the real deal and is the only way i could go in the betting here today. Serenade looks slight value but i was looking for closer to $16 to be putting money on, we may still get that drift and i’d be happy to back both if that occurred. Thurlow at $61+ also slight value if can reproduce top figures.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Petits Filous to win.
Flemington Race 2 – 2500m – Sofitel Girls’ Day Out Handicap
Gear Changes: None
1. Crafty Cruiser: Just ignore the fact old mate went around with big weight last start and expect him to be rock hard fit today. Last 6 runs suggest he is more than good enough to be in the finish at course and distance against this lot and the trend has been that he bounces back from a bad run.
2. Ruscello: Clear front runner today, looked to have his chance last start at Caulfield but it was a pretty decent run all things considered compared to previous run. Will be leading around the turn… repeat of Group 3 run two years back would obviously see him in this.
3. Reigning: Disappointing that he hasn’t struck a win the last four runs considering the way he beat Bagman five runs back at Rosehill. Always there or there abouts but keeps being too well weighted to get the win. May be his race today but certainly needs everything to go his way.
4. Danchai: Looked to return to form last start after two very poor runs. Ran nice enough last start at Caulfield and looks well enough weighted today to put in another good run if returns to best form seen this prep.
5. Sir Mako: Showed alot of potential up in Sydney and was well backed two back when just failed to produce first run in VIC, but returned to form last start with a very good win over 2500m. A step up again today but all signs suggest he can measure up on the dry surface.
6. At First Sight: Lost a plate last start which can make you forgive his run slightly, but did he really get the 2500m? Back to Flemington should suit better, but jury is out for mine at this distance in this class.
7. Kareeming: Loomed up last start and just missed 2nd to Sir Mako. Meets 0.5kg worse at the weights but 1kg better against Crafty Cruiser. 6 runs and yet to win at track with 3 places is a concern though.
8. Turner Bayou: Obviously his best runs last prep were over further distances and on wetter tracks… too firm for him today for mine.
9. Albonetti: Is 2500m her best distance? I’ve been taking this girl i have a high opinion of all prep due to how she has mapped in races and we have been correct all prep… now she gets Dunn onboard and a long Flemington straight, is she going to be suited? I can’t exactly see a huge tempo being set infront and she hasn’t exactly impressed me this prep. Win wouldn’t shock but i also can’t justify her favourite quote.
10. Prizum: Old mate just keeps running absolute blinders and i think today may just be his day back up to the 2500m distance with a spot on speed off a slow tempo. D Oliver takes the ride and he is very well weighted here.
11. Sir Laszlo: BM-78 winner but up to this today after that run two back behind Sir Mako, i struggle to suggest the win.
Comments: It’s been 2 years 11 months and 5 days between drinks for the owners of Prizum, but today is the day he becomes a winner again. He has been super consistent all prep with 8 runs all inside the top 5… he is rock hard fit and flew home last start at MV… weighted perfectly in a group of consistent runners and is a great price on the E/W.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Prizum E/W
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – Exford Plate
Gear Changes: Odyssey Moon – Winkers Again & Blinkers Off, Ragazzo Del Corsa – Visor First Time & Blinkers Off, Bon Aurum – Tongue Tie First Time
1. Odyssey Moon: Did alot wrong first up yet still found the line strongly for 3rd. Up to 1400m looks ideal and he is primed today. Looks well suited here.
2. Prince of Brooklyn: Very disappointing run first up when off the speed and failed to find the line. Did have an excuse or two but i couldn’t back him 2nd up today off that in this class.
3. Gold Busker: Did alot wrong overracing all race first up at Moonee Valley… decent form out of state but hard to measure up after that first run.
4. Manhattan Blues: Disappointing run first up. Well beaten at the top level last prep but did run a respectable fourth in the Blue Diamond from well back. Need to see the run today after that first up effort.
5. El Greco: Old mate has alot of talent but he has reached his peak for this prep and won’t be improving without a spell. Happy to take him on.. consistent and will run well but won’t win.
6. Ragazzo Del Corsa: Decent type of horse but has proved by last two runs, is a few lengths behind this grade.
7. Snoopy: Three runs for three wins to date. Beaten everything put infront of him and well bred type for this distance. Think he has a big figure and could be value coming into this. Maps perfectly.
8. Lizard Island: Ran well enough as a 2YO but came back a step below this class based on first two runs this prep. Up to 1400m obviously turn him on a bit more but not this much.
9. More Than Most: Maiden only winner… decent enough form first prep and did handle this track. First up run was okay and stable really like him as a horse, but barrier the big issue here. On trial for the Guineas here.
10. Luchador: Heavy 3Y-MDN winner last start. Took a long time to break through and hard to see him measuring up to these.
11. Patch Adams: Patchy has been putting in some respectable runs this prep but surely can’t see him placing in this grade.
12. Bon Aurum: Four runs this prep… only a win in maiden and toughest feat today.. no thanks.
13. Red Alto: Goes well enough on dryer tracks. Has the ability on what we have seen this prep but i’d be willing to pass him by here.
15. Sovereign Nation: Won on protest first up. Really wants the 1400m but has to find much more here. Hard to see the instant improvement to Group class level required.
16. Tulsa: Fairly easy kill 2nd up over an average bunch at Pakenham. Poor barrier ruins any chance for mine.
17. War Legend: Failed in 2Yo class as a 2Yo.. won a 4 runner maiden first up. Hard to rate.
18. Ragnaar: Well respected NZ import. They never win first up in Aus though… a rule i live by with NZ imports! Has been backed.
19. Assertive Star: Very good run from the back last start at Sandown. Has to improve again to place.
20. Deadly Shadow: Couldn’t win a maiden from out the front off a slow enough tempo.
Comments: Odyssey Moon and Snoopy are the two standouts for me today. I just can’t risk the price being bet for Snoopy today though while i’m very happy with the draw Odyssey Moon has been given to take him with confidence e/w today. Will love the Flemington track and has the right jockey onboard.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Odyssey Moon E/W
Flemington Race 4 – 1200m – Danehill Stakes
Gear Changes: Headwater – Winkers First Time, Danuki – Winkers Off & Blinkers on & Tongue Tie on, Brockhoff – Tongue Tie Again
1. Headwater: Very poor run first up at Rosehill last start. Well beaten in the Golden Slipper but did stick on all things considered for 5th. Would have preferred a much better run coming into this run today but obviously a horse with ability.
2. Ready for Victory: A fair thing licked last start at Caulfield first up when ran to form which suggests he is a very good type. Only win last prep was very very good at course down the straight. D Oliver onboard.
3. Black Vanquish: Very good win 2nd up last prep at Flemington down the straight over this distance and proved to be a force to fear going forward. Still won ending prep at Caulfield even having been galloped on… obviously classy but has to prove just how good he is to beat all these.
4. Last Bullet: Won two in a row and continues to do everything right after returning with a fair win first up in a small field. Obviously needs to find best to beat these and i’m thinking this is just a few lengths beyond him.
5. Well Sprung: Surprise winner last start at Moonee Valley at big odds from out the front when rail was certainly suiting them. Much harder here but looks handy enough.
6. Kinglike: Well bred type who impressed last prep. Like to see the first run back to see if he is the real deal, has been supported.
7. Danuki: Every chance last start but just beaten by a better horse on the day. Hard to have here.
8. Raphael’s Cat: Has been firm in the markets which is certainly a surprise to me. Her first prep was only fair and then first up yep she ran okay time and won from out the front but didn’t beat much at all. Need to show more here.
9. Brockhoff: Maiden win first up with ease as favourite as expected. Have to find much more to place today… has the stable to do it though and the yard think enough of him to duel nominate for Guineas and Cox Plate.
10. Puritan: Have to say it was a very good win first up against what really is the trend of the track at Pakenham… one to watch outside the box.
11. Boston Light: Did alot wrong first up. Was well backed that day as well. Hard to have.
12. Reemah: Got the easy kill first up at Geelong… obviously has quality 0.2L 2nd in the Blue Diamond.
Comments: I have to admit i feel this is a fair nightmare of a race. Ready for Victory does get the tick, but with not a load of confidence considering how much potential there is in this race with horses like Black Vanquish, Puritan and Reemah to name just a few.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Ready for Victory to win.
Flemington Race 5 – 1400m – The Sofitel
Gear Changes: Guest of Honour – Winkers Off, Bull Point – Lugging Bit Off & Standard Bit On & Blinkers Off, Akavoroun – Visor Off, Disposition – Cross Over Noseband First Time, Mister Milton – Pacifiers Off.
1. Leebaz: WFA-G2 winner last prep over 1800m and close in Group 3 class. Will be the clear leader today. Best runs on dry track and has a decent first up record.
2. Akzar: 1 win from 8 first up runs. Didn’t get a win last prep and best runs over much further than this in the past. Happy to take on.
3. Guest of Honour: Disappointing three runs last prep. Couldn’t have today on what i’ve seen.
4. Jacquinot Bay: Huge run first up. Consistent type and will run very well again today at a course that he generally likes. Speed will be solid for him and he should have no real issues getting over today.
5. Richie’s Vibe: Had every chance 2nd up and well beaten. Did end with Rich Enuff and others though so have to believe he can run a fair race.
6. Bull Point: Moved stables and first up dead last. Hard to have.
7. Akavoroun: Didn’t find very much last prep but spring is clearly the key for this horse with 6 winsf rom 14 starts including running down the cleaner on record! Nice barrier today and first up record is good enough… best runs on wetter the issue.
8. Disposition: Very good horse. Two runs last prep 2nd to Wandjina then disappointing 4th to Watermans Bay. Rates very well and maps a dream.
9. Yesterday’s Song: Bossy onboard… blocked for runs last start which got him beat. Good win two back…. 1400m key distance… good horse.
10. Mighty Like: Nice run 2nd two back then failed hard last start. Need to improve to win this today based on first two songs.
11. Zebrinz: Ran home very well last start behind Charmed Harmony from too far back. Eye-catching run. Looks well in here.
12. Mister Milton: Hasn’t won since 2013 and won’t be changing that today.
13. Sir Andrew: Goes in the sack after failing to win any run this prep to date.
14. Pressing: To find best needs it wetter. Even then didn’t find much last start when well backed.
Comments: Leebaz, Jacquinot Bay, Disposition and Zebrinz are the four standouts while i think Yesterday’s Song is a excuse horse and i can’t take the $4s on offer. Leebaz has shown his best over further than this and while i think he is a massive chance, i can’t trust the horse here. Jacquinot Bay most likely won’t get the pace wanted today for mine and does need the run. Zebrinz looks the big value in the race, will measure up and dryer track today the key. Disposition is the horse that maps beautifully and is proven in group 1 class and looks a massive price all things considered.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Disposition to win.
Flemington Race 6 – 1200m – Bobbie Lewis
Gear Changes: Sterling City – Lugging Bit First Time
1. Lucky Hussler: Massive last prep when winning a WFA-G1 at Moonee Valley. Previous prep won a Group 3 and 2nd in Group 1… also ran 1L behind Dissident in a WFA-G1… serious horse and he looks the real deal. While i dislike the jockey choice, it’s fairly hard to do something wrong on this type of horse in a straight race… but bossy could find a way from this barrier.
2. Sterling City: Looks like he wants the run. Very poor last prep the issue but he has the ability to obviously measure up here.
3. Amorino: Take it on and it wins, back it and it loses! First up and back to 1200m, take it on in this.
4. Rich Enuff: No disgrace first up at Caulfield on a wet surface. Back to firmer track today will be much better suited, but he has been taken on in the markets the past 24 hours. Loves the straight.
5. Under The Louvre: He ran a shocker first up and it was no real surprise off that trial he put in. Loves the straight and measures up well around Lucky Hussler, but i really feel he needs the run.
6. Riziz: Continues to run well and in career best form it appears. Beat Alpine Eagle two back and won well since. Have to respect and Kah doesn’t come over on a Saturday to lose a race.
7. Gregers: Did too much work first run in at MV. Never won down straight a huge concern…. stable suggests going very well.
8. Setinum: Not the worst run last start in WFA-G1 3L 11th to Boban. Back to 1200m and down the straight will suit. Can win.
9. Jabali: Finished off last prep with a huge win in 3Y-GP2 at Doomben. 1200m first up today, take one.
10. Worthy Cause: Measured up to the top class last prep but just didn’t take the extra step. Best seen over further.
11. Churchill Dancer: Weighted very well again today. Huge win last start at Moonee Valley and looks well in from the barrier. Yard has huge opinion of him. Has won down the straight more than once before.
12. Il Cavallo: Couldn’t touch him even if he has a good record at track.. His last two runs he had every chance.
13. Kaepernick: Hawkes runner first up today. Toughest test too date.
Comments: Rich Enuff will be leading and be hard to run down off the weights. Lucky Hussler top weight but tricky barrier today. Churchill Dancer has been very well backed and all value appears to be gone at the $7 price. Gregers and Riziz have to both be respected in the market also while Setinum can repeat two back run to win. Slight lean back to dryer surface that Rich Enuff can return to glory.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 7, 8, 11
Strategy: Rich Enuff to win. Smaller bet Riziz to win.
Flemington Race 7 – 1600m – Makybe Diva
Gear Changes: Our Ivanhowe – Blinkers First Time & Glue On Shoes First Time & Noseroll Off, Alpine Eagle – Noseroll First Time.
1. Fawkner: Sensational record in this type of race and over this distance.. also runs best at this track in my opinion! Handles all conditions as well…. the ultimate horse really. Will be pushing over from a wide barrier but shouldn’t have too much trouble getting a perfect position in running. Yard is confident.
2. Happy Trails: Two runs in this prep and third up is generally when he is ready to fire. Goes very well at this track and key is back to dryer track which is what he loves. Barrier helps and will get a nice run.
3. Boban: The horse to beat. Slowly run race last start at Caulfield and yes he got all the luck in running but even so had to put in some very solid sectionals on not ideal ground for his liking to get the win. Barrier helps again and will get a charmed run.
4. Dandino: Needs further to be competitive and i’m happy to take him on in this grade.
5. Smokin’ Joey: Scratched before race last start. Previous run breathing issues. Has the ability to run well but not sure he is a WFA-G1 horse honestly.
6. Weary: Massive run at Caulfield last start when missed the start, went out the back and tried to come around the field for 4th. Expect a very solid run again today but best seen on wetter tracks like last start.
7. Prince of Penzance: Flashed home when it was all said and done. Needs further to find his very best. Likes this track.
9. Entirely Platinum: Close but just missed last start. 1600m as good for the horse as 1400m but never won or placed at track is a concern. Can run well.
10. Mongolian Khan: This blokes an absolute bull. Yes he will be primed for the 1600m but it isn’t his ideal and i’ll let him go around without my money on today.
11. Volkstok’n’barrell: Ran well enough first up over the unsuitable 1400m needing the run. 1600m not much better for mine from a horrible barrier. Take on.
12. Magicool: Not a wet tracker… back to Good track today you have to forgive at least for the first up run and over 1600m today.. but really it would shock if he got top 2.
13. Hi World: Had his chances first up at Caulfield on the suitable wetter surface…. wasn’t good enough. Poor barrier, take on for mine.
14. Alpine Eagle: Is he the real deal? I’m not sold sorry. Up to WFA-G1 grade and this is his first attempt. Super green first up this prep over 1400m in Adelaide and never a chance. Back to dryer surface suits but he will be giving them loads of lengths and i can’t see it.
15. Rising Romance: Sensational run first up when alot went wrong 3-wide the trip and got shuffled back then blocked for runs and still hit the line like a speed demon. Closer to the speed today from barrier 1 and back to a dryer surface and up in distance… suited!
16. Gust of Wind: Needs further does hold mate Gust of Wind.
17. Awesome Rock: Struggle to see the required improvement to win this.
Comments: Several key chances in this race but three rate well enough for me to consider them the standouts in Fawkner, Boban and Rising Romance. Think the price on Rising Romance is huge but i’m happy to back all three and hope for a win from one of them.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 9, 15
Strategy: Back Boban for 1.3 units, Fawkner for 1.1 units and Rising Romance for 0.5 units. Odds of $2.20 on this bet at time of publishing (Top Fixed Tote prices – higher betfair)
Flemington Race 8 – 1400m – Let’s Elope
Gear Changes: No Gear Changes
1. Cosmic Endeavour: Had every chance first up when declared by Gai as the ‘best mare in Australia’. Up to 1400m today looks more suitable and back to a dryer track might just be the key. Barrier is better today and should be more on speed than last start.
2. May’s Dream: Old mate flew home first up at Caulfield last start. Could get a better position in running today but never won at Flemington a bit of an issue… but has a good record at this distance.
4. Miss Rose de Lago: Sensational all her runs this prep in similar grades and completed the brilliance at Caulfield with a start to finish demolition job with a brilliant ride from Katie M. Back to Flemington where she still always runs well, back 400m today is the only issue.
5. Amicus: Very nice win first up at Randwick and seems to be back to her best on that win. Wide barrier a concern but has the ability to measure up.
6. Noble Protector: Very classy runner and unlucky not to be winning over Amanpour in the GP1 last prep.. bias and wet ground did her in. Firm track today and 1400m looks ideal for mine. Rates very well.
7. Fenway: Very very good horse and clearly best over further distances than 1400m. Happy to take her on here today.
8. Madam Gangster: Gun ride last start at Caulfield for a very good win over a talented horse in Hazard. Has to take the extra step today up to 1400m doesn’t look an issue and horse has won 5 of last 6 races!
9. Platinum Rocker: Strong 2nd at Caulfield last start but this is a step up in class again. Has to improve.
10. Loved Up: Well beaten last start. Hard to have here for mine.
11. Tawteen: Risk pushing her out to 1400m and this is a stab in the dark for the stable. I like the horse but i can’t take her in this.
12. Precious Gem: Always there or there abouts and hitting the line strongly. Long time between drinks.
13. Lady Cumquat: Measured up in the city last prep but never got a win. Hasn’t won since in NZ is a concern. Not in this class from that barrier for mine.
14. Maastricht: Shown the ability last few preps to suggest she was handy, but last win was a BM-64 and first up run didn’t inspire.
15. Vezalay: Very good run last start at Caulfield when did alot wrong especially final 100m. Back to dryer surface today and perfect barrier you have to respect her.
16. Niminypiminy: Looks a very good type in the making based on previous three runs. Much harder today though.
18. Amarela: Nice enough win last start at Pakenham but this is beyond her best.
Comments: Several key chances in this race today. Certainly no walk in the park to separate them so it all comes down to value again. Cosmic Endeavour should appreciate the track conditions today and also the distance increase… WFA-G1 winner over 1300m, hard to ignore that! Miss Rose De Lago is certainly a massive price on offer today for a horse that will be there in a finish if there is a fast tempo. Amicus has to be included in the Quaddie but not sure the price is as justified it is short. Noble Protector is clearly one of the horses to beat, but i think the $3.80 is well under correct odds first up. Do like the horse but this is a classy field. Think Vezalay can run a monster again and so can Madam Gangster. Expecting a strong tempo and Cosmic Endeavour has the class to sit just off them up to 1400m today and run past them all on previous runs.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 15
Strategy: Cosmic Endeavour E/W. Smaller bet Miss Rose de Lago to win.
Flemington Race 9 – 1700m – Spring is the Season Handicap
Gear Changes: Mutual Regard – Lugging Bit First Time & Standard Bit Off & Winkers Off, Garud – Cheekers Off, Count of Limonade – Blinkers Off
1. Taiyoo: Disappointing run last start at Caulfield, clearly not a wet tracker we know for the future now. Very good run first up but may have also just been flat from that 2nd up also. Stays at 1700m which should suit today… don’t dismiss him easily.
2. Extra Zero: Always runs very well. Missed a place last start though which is rare. Goes very well at this track.
3. Mutual Regard: Went around single figures in the Melbourne Cup last year. Never won at distance and needs further.
4. Escado: Poor run first up. Needs several runs to get into prep i’d reckon and further required.
5. Set Square: Certainly a handy type and first up run missed start and hit line hard to just miss. Much harder today but up to 1400m gives her more of a chance and back to dryer surface ideal.
6. Bondeiger: Showed nothing first up which is a bit of a concern. Last prep went through the grades and was a close 2nd in the main race in Spring for the 3YO stayers. Clearly wants further to find best.
7. Like a Carousel: Just simply needs further.
8. Observational: Very interesting horse. One run in Australia for a very good win at Bendigo at this distace in listed class. Word is the horse is FLYING as well. Was $4.30 favourite against Snow Sky three preps back over in UK. Barrier the only issue and will be going back.
9. Diametric: He continues to run well but just can’t get a win. Back to 1700m and rock hard fit, you have to believe he can go close but this barrier takes away most hopes i’d suggest.
11. Iggimacool: McCat :> she has run 2nd solidly three times in a row… so yes she will be in the finish again but this does look a step up again today for mine! Have to respect.
13. De Little Engine: Finished off last prep with a win over 2600m. Best runs over further than this, have to take him on at this distance.
14. Don Doremo: He’s a decent horse but not over this distance, he needs 2000m+ to find his best.
15. Garud: Not the worst first up record but needs further to find his very best and prefer a few runs in.
19. He or She: Looks like he will get a run today. Ran nicely enough first up 5th to Charmed Harmony. Up in distance and back to dryer track! Suited.
20. Abbasso: Every chance for us last start but just not good enough. Take on here from barrier.
Comments: Tough race to end the day but let’s give it a shot. I think Taiyoo can cause a shock heading onwards to a Caulfield Cup bid. He has proved his worth on the dry surface at this track in the past over similar distances from positive barriers and i’m expecting that to occur again today.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 8, 9, 11, 19
Strategy: Taiyoo E/W
Rosehill Race 2 – 2000m – Kingston Town
1. Silverball: Last prep measured up with a strong win at Flemington and then finished off with a good win at Rosehill. Two runs this prep and continues to improve with each run. Step to 2000m looks ideal if we believe he is being aimed at a race like the Caulfield Cup then this should be a big performance jump. Only concern is Rail in the +2 and Silverball being a horse to sit closer to the rear.
2. Foundry: First prep in Australia proved to be a very handy type. Last prep was very disappointing but first up run had a bit of potential in the run and suggested he was clearly wanting further. Maps to get a dream run and could even be 1 back the rail.
3. Kingdoms: Well backed favourite first run this prep up at Doomben and just missed the win. Hasn’t won in more than a year a slight concern but have to believe the step up to 2000m will suit. Tricky barrier.
4. Havana Cooler: Very poor run last start in the Wyong Cup. Previous run flashed home over the 1800m and may just be wanting a dryer track based on previous records which will occur. Out the back a concern.
5. Maurus: Big first up win in BM-75 when wide no cover on speed at Canterbury with a big weight. Good barrier and maps as leader. Has to improve to hold off all of these but do believe he has alot of talent.
6. King Kinshasa: Won very well in much easier class first up in Aus for Waterhouse stable when sat on speed and won with ease. Time was solid and showed ability over in the UK.
7. Skyline Blush: Strong 1600m win last start at Wyong coming off two wins in city as well on heavy tracks. Never won on a good track certainly a concern but does have ability.
8. Temps Voleur: Big win two back at WHP and then won last start but lost it on protest to Shenzhou Steeds who has since run very well again. Good weight again today and expect to see him on speed. Could surprise.
Comments: There’s no doubt in my mind that this is a race with alot of class. Silverball is clearly the horse to beat and and loves this track based on previous runs. A small field will give Silverball every possible chance to win and there looks to be enough speed out the front to ensure a steady tempo. I’d be tempted to also have a small bet on Foundry at the price based on potential top ratings.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Silverball to win. Much smaller bet on Foundry also.
Rosehill Race 5 – 1200m – Sheraco Stakes
1. Bounding: Massive win first up at Caulfield beating Guineas 2nd placed Rich Enuff with ease. Back to a firmer track shouldn’t be much of an issue but certainly did find her best on the Soft5/6 surface. Good barrier to get a sit just off the leaders. Clearly the horse to beat. Same turn of foot on the opposite feet?
2. Catkins: Feels like she has been around forever, but Catkins is just a 6YO and yet to measure up to G1 companmy.. is this her prep for that? Failed to get a win up in QLD which is certainly a concern coming into this after her freshen up… a bit too much racing with a lack of a full spell?
3. Slightly Sweet: Progressed nicely through the grades last prep to win a G3 at Randwick to finish it all off over the 1400m. 1200m certainly not the ideal distance for her IMO… can and will run well but finds one too good.
4. Peeping: Well backed favourite in a small 6 horse field first up off a very nice trial and only just got the cash on what appeared a biased rail, so it was a good run in good time. Has ability but will need to find much more than that first up run.
5. Echo Gal: Expected to push forward today. Significantly good win three runs back at Randwick in fast time on a Good 4 track leading all the way and winning super well. Just beaten two runs back by Amicus late and then last start at Wyong ran poorly on softer ground. Back to dryer ground here and maps as leader but won’t get it easy that’s for sure. Repeat of 3 back would be competitive.
6. Fine Mist: First up today after a decent enough prep which included BM-80 wins at course. Others preferred on class factors.
7. Mihiri: Hawkes stable runner who trialled well enough but first up run wide no cover fell out of it very quickly. Dryer surface and Easier run should help today, but need to improve significantly to beat all of these.
8. Fiftyshadesofgrey: Finished off nicely enough first run in after a freshen up and did win at course and distance three runs back, but best recently been on wetter surfaces and in easier class. Big test.
9. Supara: Promised alot but failed to deliver on the track. Had no run last start at course and went to the line untested coming off a few good trials. Think she has the ability to run very well today even from the poor barrier and looks the knockout chance.
Comments: Boundings clearly the horse to beat here. That win first up was massive and the field beaten was very classy. Catkins certainly deserves to be 2nd favourite in the market but i couldn’t touch at the price based on previous two runs. Supara is the massive value in the race not tested first up giving us a big price today.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Bounding to win. Much smaller bet Supara to win.
Rosehill Race 6 – 1400m – Golden Rose Stakes
1. Press Statement: No disgrace at all first up off two decent trials when sat just off the speed and hit the line strongly, but was no match for Exosphere coming over the top. Back to dryer track today but not sure that is what he WANTS, but he does have a 2Y-SW win to his name at Doomben on a Good track which does give confidence. Step up to 1400m the key.
2. Exosphere: Golden Slipper 2nd favourite, two strong trials and jumped a huge $5.50 first up coming over the top of the field with a very dominant win. Step up to 1400m should be no issue, but does have to prove he can handle the step up in distance and still have this same turn of foot. A good ride would see him not on the rail.
3. Gold Symphony: Beaten everything thrown at him the last two starts and only Jalan Jalan has got the better of him this prep out of 36 horses. Distance step up should be no issue, but i do think he is a step below the top group in this race.
4. Rageese: Easy kill as a short priced favourite in a maiden last start. Hit the line well enough first up with this a goal race. Last prep 0.8L 2nd to Pride of Dubai a very good run for a 150k priz emoney in the Sires as well hard to ignore… has talent to win this. Tricky barrier.
5. Shards: Hasn’t done much wrong in the past for us to think he isn’t high enough quality to measure up. Ran a close 2nd to Press Statement three runs back, wona fter that and then won last start also with strong wins… very tough type but can he tough out the full 1400m today is the real issue.
6. Sebring Sun: Hit the line nicely when further back than expected. Obviously a decent run but has to improve again today to beat all of these home and can’t afford to jump poorly.
7. Let’s Make It Rain: Last win on heavy. Next two runs were decent but well beaten two back and last start in easier company couldn’t get a win..
8. Holler: Looks the lesser chance of the O’Shea horses, but we know how that can go sometimes! Did win a good race as a 2Yo but hasn’t won since – last start run wasn’t good enough to suggest a win here.
9. Speak Fondly: Good enough win first up but certainly took it to the next level with a very strong win on speed last start at Randwick over the 1200m. Step up to 1400m looks ideal today and certainly a top class horse on first two runs this prep.
Comments: Four horses stand out in this race. Rageese is the clear value in the race at $18+ odds. Proved with the 2nd last prep to Pride of Dubai that talent is in his blood, but we really don’t have any real track of exactly how well he is going. Press Statement has been well backed all week to a point where i’m actually wanting to take him on at the prices. I’m confident Exosphere has him covered majority of the runs they both get here and the price just isn’t value. Speak Fondly was a massive run last start and maps as the leader on a rail you have to expect to be suiting the leaders. Exosphere is the X factor in the race… clearly the best horse in the race but runs at Rosehill can undo even the very best horses. I have to side with Speak Fondly on the Each-Way at a very reasonable price!
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Speak Fondly E/W
Rosehill Race 7 – 1300m – Theo Marks Stakes
1. Famous Seamus: He hasn’t won in a long time and only ever once first up from 10 first up runs, but he always pus in his all and has been competing against the very best in previous preps compared to this field first up which is certainly a few steps below. You don’t win $1.1million in prize money for being a second rater, have to show him the respect he deserves even out the back.
2. Messene: Loves to tease punters and was very hard to rate last prep after a very good first up run but fails after that. Best run to date this prep was certainly last start when behind the leaders and ran home very well for 3rd behind Royal Descent and Pornichet who are clearly Group 1 horses. Dryer track suits and will be on speed from positive barrier.. handles a very fast tempo. Will be peaking.
3. Strawberry Boy: Old mate has always been hard to catch but won his last two runs of last prep up at Doomben. Two okay trials but going off last few preps the 1300m may just be a little too short and he is wanting the 1600m.
4. Amanpour: Group 1 winner over Catkins and Noble Protector over 1600m last prep thanks to a nice leaders rail bias at Randwick. Proved to be a handy type with a 2nd to Catkins in the Emancipation and all that jazz, but this defiantly isn’t her best distance so have to consider if effective enough on this.
5. Ninth Legion: Painful horse to follow. Won first up last prep but then ran 2nd the three times after that. Trial was only fair but is certainly suited by first up distance and rails run suits.
6. Heart Testa: Very nice run first up at double figure odds coming off good trials. Will be taking a sit off the speed today… best runs in the past over 1200m and not sure what to make of the distance chosen… has the ability to run well and first up showed that.
7. Aomen: A long time between drinks. Will be sitting closer to the speed today than first up and more suited by runs over further than first up. Has ability to run well based on last preps Liverpool result.
8. Winx: Surprisingly hasn’t accepted for the Caulfield Cup has to throw up a few concerns for this run first up. Very talented type with the Guineas and Oaks win up north when she didn’t exactly have to beat much… but she is top class material. Certainly needs further to find best but can win at this distance.
9. Decision Time: Horrible run last start when well beaten by some classier animals. Won a Group 3 previous start and may just have not been suited by 1000m? Hard to back here on that last run.
10. Boss Lane: Every chance last start to beat Decision time but simply couldn’t get past. Have to take on having seen that run and thinking others better here.
11. Nostradamus: Bookies took the short priced favourite on first up and got it all. Well beaten and had a great ride. Can’t see the improvement needed to beat this lot.
12. Vashka: Untapped potential in this one folks. Tough run to the line 3rd behind Decision Time and Boss Lane but i think has the most upside going forward… just not sure this is the race for him.
13. Sons of John: Best runs have been over much further as in 1600m+.. certainly a good Hawksbury Cup win to finish last prep and the runs coming in have been good trials… just can’t suggest he is good enough to beat all of these in this class over this distance… but geez he is weighted well enough to cause a shock.
15. Turbulent Jet: One of those in the race i’m very happy to take on at the ratings.
Comments: I’m shocked to see Winx a $4.20 favourite in this race and Vashka the second favourite… yes the weights do help both runners but i think they are both being over-rated by the market. Winx will need to have improved again over the break to win at this dsitance in this race for mine while Vashka needs another run to measure up to these for me. Messene gets the dream run today and rates the best coming into this off that last start huge run behind Group 1 horses and is a great E/W price.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Messene E/W
