Welcome to The Profits form guide for 5 March 2016 at Flemington and Randwick. It’s finally Autumn and the very best runners are taking to the tracks. We are presented by top quality races all around Australia and with that in mind we have looked towards the Sydney races along with our normal look down in Melbourne. There is a good level of confidence in our bets and I’m expecting a solid Quaddie Dividend down in Melbourne which we hope to get a piece of. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Sydney Bet
Randwick Race 8 – Ball of Muscle for 4 units at $2.05 to place.
Very keen to be on Ball of Muscle to place here. Huge value in the price. Horse has never missed a place in 17 runs and he looks absolutely suited here to lead and win this race.
Best Melbourne Bet
Flemington Race 3 – Miss Seton for 1.75 units @ $5.50/$1.90 Each-Way
Very talented runner over from New Zealand having won two of last four runs, with the other two runs being Group 3 placed and Group 1 placed. Instead of going to the top level, they have nominated a proven horse down into this grade today.
Next Best Melbourne Bet
Flemington Race 1 – Top Me Up for 2 units @ $3.30 to Win
Maps as the only leader in the race.. but if something takes him on, he has no issues with taking a sit. That being said, i’m pretty confident he will get the race run his own way out front and with Data Point heading up to Randwick, he is the clear top pick here and i’m confident in him winning this coming off his very strong run in harder company.
Next Best Sydney Bet
Randwick Race 7 – Tulsa for 2 units @ $4.40 to place
Press Statement should be winning. On ratings the other places are up for grabs and Tulsa is top pick for me in this regard. I personally think Tulsa has the ability to beat Press Statement if he gets caught wide from the barrier also, but i’m more than happy to play the safer play in the place bet at very nice odds.
Best Value Bet
Flemington Race 9 – Tuff Host for 0.5 units @ $41/$11 Each-Way
This race will be setup with a very strong early tempo and they won’t stop the whole way around. There are only a few horses in this race that are well suited to this occurring and Tuff Host is one of those based on the run at Moonee Valley three runs back when toughing out a race run along early and run along late. Happy to have a small E/W bet on knowing that even if the pace is medium to strong that the horses best is still good enough.
Melbourne Quaddie
One of those days when I have to go very wide in a few legs of the Quaddie. I think if the favourite gets rolled in Leg Two then there will be a lot of value put into the pools and there is enough chances at big odds in the other legs to pay off.
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14, 15
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 6, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 6, 7, 8, 12, 15, 17
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1400m – Saintly Handicap
1. Top Me Up: He looks very well rated here coming back in class. He ran a very bold 7th in the CS Hayes just 2.7L off the winners who all came from the back and he led off a strong tempo. Today, there is no speed in the race and Dunn will be allowed to control the tempo and run it as wanted. Well enough weighted as well.
2. Sea of Tranquility: First up. Trial was sound. Last prep failed to get a win in BM-64 grade and while he ran well over 1800m on a heavy 8 at course, he failed over 1600m the next start. Looks well short of his best.
3. Palace Tycoon: A nice enough type out of the Moody stable. Maiden win over 2000m and then BM-64 win over 2200m. First up 1400m today… did run okay over 1600m last prep in maiden grade…. and previous prep over 1200m 3L 6th in a race at Caulfield… but i can’t see it at this distance.
4. Lazumba: Maiden winner last start at Werribee in a slow time as a short priced favourite by 3 lengths. Didn’t beat much that day. Ran 2nd two preps back in the G2 VRC Sires to jameka which has to be respected as a form line. Will be going back from the wide gate.
5. Sistine Spirit: Nice enough run first up over 1200m when held up for runs at Moonee Valley finishing 5th in much easier grade. Previous prep won a solid BM-64 beating a horse that measured up at higher levels in Patch Adams. Shown some ability but clearly has to improve.
7. Overstay: Maiden only winner over slightly further. Struggle to suggest after the first up run.
8. Song One: Maiden winner last start at Sale. Only just won in a three way go. Looks an okay type but not here for mine.
9. Dawn of Hope: Maiden winner last prep. Failed to go on with it over further. Looks a nice enough type over this distance. Win wouldn’t be out of the question but others preferred. Place.
10. Tuff Bickie: Maiden winner first up after a freshen up over 1600m. Has to improve significantly again.
Comments: Top Me Up is the clear top pick on paper with two threats that still need to improve on their previous form. This is Top Me Up’s race to lose based on the horses runs this prep and the fact that he maps to be the clear race leader and to control the tempo.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Top Me Up for 2 units @ $3.30 to win.
Flemington Race 2 – 1000m – 3AW 693 News Talk Sport Stakes
1. Sword of Light: Looked a very good type her first two wins this prep. Wide barrier and too far forward with early work last start at Caulfield in a fast run race over 1100m. Back to 1000m where she clearly looks the best. Sit, roll, win.
2. Derryn: Trialled well in private for the stable. Expected to sprint well fresh.
3. Happy Halloween: Found sweet F all first up down the straight. Hard to see the improvement.
4. The Seductress: Two good runs to start her prep then last start down the back from a wider barrier at Caulfield and disappointed. Can improve and run much better today, but still has to improve to beat the No.1
5. Emphatically: Continues to run well this prep. Had every chance when well beaten 2nd to Sword of Light two runs back. Last start blocked for runs at Caulfield and never had a chance. Has the ability to win this.
6. Thyme for Roses: Well respected filly. Very poor first run this prep at Caulfield. Much better than that. Have to respect on class, but others preferred.
7. Selenia: Done nothing wrong this prep running bold 4ths both runs in top class. One of the key chances and much better weighted here.
8. Queen Magdalene: Needs further is the opinion of the stable. Did enough first up to suggest she has ability to measure up to this class.
9. Alter Call: Unseen 2YO. D Oliver takes ride. Moody stable. Has been backed.
10. Blushing Moment: Unsupported in the market. Looks a nice enough bred type. Unseen.
11. Creativity: Average breeding. Never seen before. Has been well backed.
12. Dezuri: Okay breeding. Big drifter. Unseen.
13. Legless Veuve: Unseen. Big drifter.
14. None At All: Was an okay enough trial. Not sure I could take her in this class first up though.
15. River Goddesss: Drifter. Trial was average at best.
16. Vitriolic Attack: Backed into single figures. Looks a nice enough type.
Comments: Wide open race. Clear top pick for mine is Sword of Light on form to date. Place price is more than backable.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Sword of Light to place.
Flemington Race 3 – 1100m – Mrs Mac’s Family Bakery Sprint
1. Afleet Esprit: I thought she ran very well last start at course over 1000m. Won 4 times in the past in similar grades to this, she is proven and never missed a place second up.
2. Nadeem Lass: Every chance her first two runs this prep. Seems to need a few runs to find her very best. Back in class here.
3. Scarlet Billows: Went to the next level last prep a few runs into prep. Won in similar grade over 1400m. 1100m probably just a little too short to find her very best here.
4. Miss Steele: Loves to run a solid race without winning. Hasn’t won in nearly two years yet run 3rd or 4th in 6 of her last 9 races. Struggle to suggest the win.
5. Hijack Hussy: A very big chance here today on her very best form last prep where she won a 3F-LR race over 1400m here… previous to that a 3YO in Gold Coast and ran a close 2nd in 3Y-GP3. Looks the clear value pick.
6. Exclusive Lass: Well beaten last prep by Scarlet BIllows in this grade. Never won first up and never placed at this track certainly an issue, but she certainly showed last prep she has ability.
7. Japhils: Had her chances first up but well beaten. Would need to see another run before having any confidence to beat this lot.
8. Celeritas: Well priced last start at Moonee Valley in much easier race and got the best of them. Big step up in class here, not convinced she can win but can place.
9. Miss Seton Sands: Amazing price on offer today. Last 5 runs have been: Open class winner, Group 1 2nd, Listed winner, Group 3 3rd (0.2L and lost more than that at the start of race), Listed 3rd. Placed 8 of last 9 runs in this class or better. Form around her has more than measured up also. Big opinion.
10. Estaminet: Knuckled at the start but still won fairly well beating an average bunch of runners. Much harder task here today that’s for sure. Race was run to suit with a lack of tempo early and allowed to slowly work into it over the final 400m with a clear final 200m burst. Slower final 400m than the Group 1 race runners apart from the 1 horse who failed.. but did have a fast final 200m better than all but Chautauqua’s… but they went a lot faster also in the Group 1. I think this horse is good, but has quite a bit more improvement required before I consider her a Group winning horse which makes it hard to really consider her here at the price.
11. Scratchy Lass: Did nothing wrong first up 2nd to Estaminet. Form previous preps very average compared to top levels which makes me question the Estaminet form a lot.
Comments: I’m very keen to bet around Estaminet here. Miss Seton Sands and Hijack Hussy are the two runners that stand out based on recent runs or potential. While I won’t be surprised when they truck load Hijack Hussey into single figures, Miss Seton Sands is the horse I want to be on here heavily.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Miss Seton Sands for 1.75 units @ $5.50/$1.90 Each-Way.
Flemington Race 4 – 2600m – 3AW Roy Higgens Quality
2. Real Love: Last win for this talented girl was over 1400m. That being said, runs very well in top quality races over these distances and just missed last start at Moonee Valley when had every possible chance. Can clearly win.
3. Like a Carousel: Horrible last prep. Can’t judge on first up run. Better over 3200m.
4. Assign: 2400m Open class winner in Ireland. Looked a good type first two runs this prep and won last start over 2000m in Listed grade. Step up here against Real Love for sure but you have to believe the 2600m will be no issues. Looks top shelf but he won’t have it all his own way today out the front.
5. Black Jag: Very solid and classy win two back at Caulfield. Last start just got the wrong ride at Moonee Valley. Tactics will be corrected and can expect a better ride.
6. Vilanova: Should be going forward again. Been a few lengths below them the last three runs and I can’t see the turn around in form this fast.
8. Wales: Ignore last start run in Group 3 company when went around as 2nd favourite and got injured in the race. A month between runs and has recovered by all reports. Ran Junoob to 0.8L in Listed company four runs back. Personally feel his best is 2000m but he should get the 2600m also.
9. Dandy Gent: Nice enough horse going through the grades. Five runs in lesser grade and yet to win this prep.
10. Dane Hussler: Best runs haved been over 3000m+ in lesser grade. Struggle to suggest in this for a win.
Comments: Expect a true staying test from the 1000m onwards with Black Jag in the race. Black Jag is the value runner with the recent form on the board outside of Real Love and Assign who deserve to be clear favourites. I personally feel Assign couldn’t have had a better run if you ran it again last start and it will be much tougher today with a rival that can beat the horse just a length or two off in Real Love.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Real Love to win.
Flemington Race 5 – 1400m – TAB Rewards Stakes
1. Leebaz: Will be on speed with Burning Front today, but don’t expect him to try and push the tempo along. Goes well at this distance but yet to place at thist rack. First up run was fine when 4L 5th to Winx in WFA-G2. Back in class but top weight.
2. Puccini: Fairly disappointing run first up at Flemington over the 1400m. Stays at course and distance and a high weight again going up in class. Best runs in past over further.
3. Red Bomber: I like this bloke as you know. Has some good wins in the past on record. A little disappointed by the first up run in WFA-G1 class but he was never expected to go well. Previous prep runs were disappointing also. Clearly has to improve.. does have the ability on past results.
4. Burning Front: Absolutely controlled the race at Caulfield last start and smoked a fairly average Group 3 field. This is clearly much harder today, but that doesn’t mean much when you are in the form he is. Just keeps going well and keeps improving. Back to 1400m if anything gives me a bit more confidence today at Flemington. Issue is he is 5 runs for 0 wins at track but only missed a place once. Placed his last 8 runs in this grade. Leader on mapping
5. Big Memory: Hasn’t won since 2014 for a reason. He just always runs well but fails to win. D Oliver back onboard. Best recent run last prep was first up WFA-G2 4th at Caulfield. Runs well over all distances 1400m+.
6. Dan Zephyr: Maps a dream today. Will most likely be sitting right off Burning Front and Leebaz today and get carried into it. The faster they go the better his chances on the past two runs for mine. Not convinced the speed will be to suit today.
7. Mighty Like: Every chance last two starts. Hard to see the improvement required based on those runs.
8. Zebrinz: Always had a lot of talent… but doesn’t win often. First up showed nothing.
9. Henwood: 15 runs 1 win at track. 16 runs 1 win at this class. Hasn’t won since 2014. First up was very poor.
10. General Groove: Unlucky last start when 0.5L off Dan Zephyr. Suited by Flemington and has won here in the past. Has the ability to surprise.
Comments: A very hard match on paper. It will all depend just how hard they go out front. On my mapping it’s going to be a medium tempo at best, but Leebaz and Dan Zephyr could be sent out with other ideas. Burning Front is the horse to beat. I think General Groove is the value runner of the race.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Burning Front to win.
Flemington Race 6 – 1000m – ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap
1. Lumosty: Group 2 winner over 1000m. Last start WFA-G1 2.5L 6th at course over 1200m. Very best runs in the past have been over 1000-1100m for mine so looks ideally suited here over this distance.
2. Miss Promiscuity: Top run last prep 2.8L WFA-G3 win over 1100m on a strangely wet day. FM-LR 2nd at Caulfield last prep was a nice run… Just hasn’t proven to be top class… doesn’t have to be to win this but i think Lumosty is top class.
3. Malaguerra: One of the better preps you will see last prep. Beat Reldas at course over 1400m. 1000m looks a bit too short first up for mine to be suggesting a win good enough to beat all these… but certainly has to be considered for the Quaddie.
4. Headwater: Strong time run first up and he was more than up for the fight. Clearly looks like his very best runs are over the 1000m distance as proven last prep also by his 1.3L 4th in WFA-G1 class behind Buffering. Good horse.
5. Tawteen: She is a nice type but her very best runs has been at other tracks with 4 runs for 1 place here. Only win in this grade was in lesser class IMO over 950m at her track Moonee Valley.
6. Thermal Current: Wasn’t the worst horse going around last prep but certainly went backwards on the previous prep which saw him win a Group 3 and run 5th in Group 1 class to Flamberge and 2nd to Politeness in Listed grade. 6 runs 1 place at track a concern.
7. General Jackson: 2 runs 0 places at track. Last prep won at Cranbourne and it wasn’t that good a run. Happy to bet around.
8. Grane: He never runs a bad race, but 2 runs at track in the past and yet to place. This is his hardest test to date.
10. Cashed: Very nice run two back at MV when very wide. End of last prep on heavy never suited. Best runs have been later into runs and 3 runs at track for 0 places.
11. Bullpit: Just going from strength to strength this prep. Too fast on speed last start but he still ran it out well and just missed. Equal weights today with Headwater.
12. Beau Rada: Unlucky last start at MV blocked for runs. Massive jump in class here. Hard to see the improvement with 0 places from 4 starts at track.
Comments: Lumosty top pick in a race with about 5-6 chances. Happy to take it back to three for the Quaddie.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 11
Strategy: Lumosty to win.
Flemington Race 7 – 1600m – Australian Guineas
1. Mahuta: Six wins from his last six runs and just continues to go around at bigger odds than he should be. Two wins over 1600m in that time and while the soft 5 wins wasn’t his very best, his good 3 run in the Sandown Guineas was more than good enough to measure up here, especially considering he took a sit that day. Barrier no drama. Should be leading.
2. Tarzino: This bloke is the real deal, but the concern as last prep is simply just how good he is over this distance. Speed will be on which he will enjoy but I’m not convinced he will be close enough to the leaders who are the favourites today to grind them all down.
3. Vanbrugh: Very poor run first up in the Hobartville. Group 1 winner last prep. Won over 1600m so is certainly no issues over this distance… will be getting back and running on. Not the ideal lead in.
4. Ready for Victory: 2L 3rd in the Caulfield Guineas last prep to Press Statement is hard to ignore. I’d be ignoring the last start run when raced wide and sustained too big a run. Will sit midfield form barrier 5 and be ridden between runners. Has the ability to win.
5. Xtravagant: Looked a Superstar over in New Zealand with a 8.5 length G1 victory and then coming into this another 8L victory. Run before that was very disappointing. Run before that over 1400m was a 0.8L winner. Had big issues with his flights that must have had an effect on him for mine. He is a good horse, a very good horse, but there is no way I’m betting him at the price with the flight issues and having just been in Australia for 2 days.
6. Bon Aurum: Looked a nice type last prep when won twice in city including a Group 3 race, but I’m not convinced for this today based on the two lead in races. Happy to bet around.
7. Sovereign Nation: Ran quite well for 4th in the Caulfield Guineas last prep. Two strong lead in runs. Last start in the CS Hayes got back to second last in running and jockey decided to take him through the field. Was an interrupted run and he is a clear chance to improve off that here. Will be suited by a strong tempo also.
8. Tivaci: Lucky to win last start on protest. Clearly was outstayed by the eventual winner and there is no way I could back him today knowing the distance increase and also tempo increase. Pass.
9. Palentino: Tough run last start at course over 1400m. Lost on protest as we know. Can improve onwards and step up to 1600m past on his final 100m is clearly appreciated. Barrier will have him in an awkward position in running is an issue.
10. River Wild: Ignore last start run when jumped 4L off them when expected on speed. Nice type and can improve.
11. Snoopy: Ran well enough last start for 3rd in the Autumn Stakes. Tough Field. One I’m happy to bet around on form.
12. Tulsa: Proved last prep on sectionals to be a very good horse but patterns have always been against. Tough run first up and then last start well off them at the 600m came home so strongly and just missed. Up to 1600m third up fit and ideal. Will be going back from barrier…
13. Jameka: Heavy 9 Crown Oaks winner last prep. Best runs were clearly over further than the 1600m on offer today as proved by the first up run. Bigger aims this prep.
14. Perfect Reflection: Probably a moral beaten first up with the way she was ridden. Loves a strong tempo and will enjoy the step up to 1600m. Beat Delicacy in the Group 1 Kingston Town on a Heavy 8. Clearly one of the chances. Will be going back from the barrier.
15. Risque: Sensational win firs tup over 1200m. Three weeks between runs and up to the perfect distance for her in 1600m. Won the G1 Guineas over in NZ last prep. Clearly a top class horse.
16. Sailing By: Hasn’t won since her maiden win last prep. Has run well for seconds and thirds and fourths but just continues to fall a bit short. First up run was quite nice running home well 2nd to Mahuta suggesting she will be happy with the step up to 1600m. Can map well from barrier.
Comments: The Quaddie selections here say it all. This is a WIDE OPEN RACE! I simply have to bet around Xtravagant today based on the first up run in AUS in top class off flight issues.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14, 15
Strategy: Back Risque and Perfect Reflection
Flemington Race 8 – 1400m – Frances Tressady Stakes
1. Wawail: I’m not convinced she is most effective over the 1400m. Yes, she was a good run last start at Caulfield and she should have been beaten 1L not 2.5L, but back to Flemington over a longer straight I can see her hitting a short price in play and having the field come at her late. Barrier doesn’t help.
2. Jessy Belle: Did a lot wrong first up in terms of over racing and we can probably forgive the first up run which wasn’t terrible but wasn’t convincing. Has to improve but does run well here and had nice runs over 1400m last prep. Best later into preps.
3. Nautical: Last start managed to beat I Love It down in Hobart with a very strong run over 1200m. I Love It went on next start to win a Group 3 race. 1 win from 13 runs in the past over this distance a concern but does go well and is in top form based on first up run.
4. My Sister Lil: Ran past Wawail last start at Caulfield when 0.4L off Azkadellia. Group 3 placed 2nd to Real Love over in WA and could have won that day with more luck. Awkward barrier so will need a good ride to get a better spot in running. Should be well suited to the longer straight today.
5. Shakespearean Lass: Every chance last start at Caulfield over the 1200m and well beaten. Best runs in past are over 1000m. Disadvantaged by step up to 1400m I believe.
6. Abidewithme: A very good horse based on NZ and AUS form. Been competing in Group 3-1 company including a FM-Group 2 win over 2000m. Won first up in AUS last prep in mares grade at Caulfield and ran 2L 8th in a Group 1 next start. Will be out the back and running on. Best is good enough.
7. Vital Importance: Doesn’t win out of turn this ex WA galloper. Measured up to this class over there over 1400m+. Had every chance last two runs at course over 1600m and simply not good enough.
8. Whistle Baby: Would love to own her but she certainly is up to her neck in it today. 1 win from 14 starts in this grade and 1 place on top of that. Just simply outclassed on current form.
9. Choose: Not the worst run last start at Caulfield but certainly has to improve on that run. Much better the previous run at Caulfield. Has to improve heavily.
10. Mossbeat: Hasn’t won since 2014 but seems to always run well. Have to bet around. If she wins, so be it. Place bet at best.
11. Boundary: Never won in this class before. Going quite well this prep overall and form lines are solid, but clearly has to go to the next level here. Weighted nicely enough to consider.
12. Into The Mist: MB-75 winner last prep over in Adelaide and R-62 winner. Best run in past was over 1600m. Hard to suggest based on first up run.
13. Abohar: 1300m winner over FMB-70. Hard to see the step up.
Comments: Wide open race with many chances. My Sister Lil looks a great price on the last start run and quick backup.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 6, 11
Strategy: My Sister Lil E/W
Flemington Race 9 – 1800m – Antler Luggage Trophy
2. Bass Strait: Fairly disappointing the last two runs coming off a very strong run at Caulfield three runs back and also four runs back. Back in class again. 6 runs 0 places at Flemington. Will be a long way back.
3. Don Doremo: Needs further based on previous runs.
4. Great Esteem: Snowden runner. Down from nice enough runs up in Sydney but hasn’t blown us away. Has to improve on last start run.
5. Metaphorical: Doesn’t win out of turn and certainly a hard horse to catch. 0.4L off Signoff tow back at Caulfield. 3 runs 0 places at track. Wide last start at course over 2000m after being slowly away. Has to be considered.
6. Nevis: Big weight first up this prep and got a very average ride if I’m honest that cost him any chances. Just ignore the fact he went around. Up to 1800m is ideal. Certainly good enough to win this today.
7. Falago: Every chance last start at Flemington and just failed to put it together. Might not have stayed the 2000m at the speed set with the weight. Step back to 1800m. Have to respect.
8. Divan: Proved to be a very nice type last prep with strong wins and a close 2nd in Group 3 company over 2400m before finishing the prep with a nice win at course over 2000m. First up very strong 2nd over 1400m. Well weighted and maps nicely.
10. Abbasso: Not much you can say about the last three runs. Had his chances every start and was very well backed last start when failed hard. This is a harder race.
11. Berisha: Nice enough run first up. Will find his best over similar distances this prep but i get the feeling he needs the run here.
12. Himalaya Dream: Massive improvement last start at Rosehill when very well backed. Well suited here again today.
14. Pin Your Hopes: In the past has shown enough ability to measure up to this grade, but hasn’t won in three preps and shown very little to suggest it occurring this prep.
15. Spreadeagled: Obviously a good type and he has been very well placed all prep with 4 wins from 5 starts in AUS. Easy enough win with the dream run last start at MV with a medium tempo set. Toughest ask to date but did get a good barrier again. Needs to stay.
16. Tom Melbourne: Only knows one way to run them around and that’s very fast! Will be pushing on to try and go with the speed and no doubt between him and Himalaya Dream it will be a tough strong tempo. Prefer over further in this class.
17. Tuff Host: Suited here. Three runs back had a similar tempo speed at Moonee Valley when beat a very talented group of runners. Hasn’t had it the last two starts to suit and at the weights with the right run not leading just off the speed, he will be coming over the top of them late.
18. Rich River: Breathing issues last start is certainly an issue. Going well enough this prep to suggest has the ability to run well but has to improve onwards here to measure up.
19. Transfer Allowance: Okay win on a wet track last start. Not getting it wet enough here. Take on.
21. Dodging Bullets: Every chance last start at MV when 2nd to Spreadeagled. Looking for further but has to improve and poor barrier hurts.
Comments: The pace on this race is going to be dangerous with Himalaya Dream and Tom Melbourne expected to run it at a very solid clip from the get go! Divan looks a nice enough price for those wanting the shorts on a horse that will stay and will be suited, but the horse that stands out for me is an ex-best bet in Tuff Host who will be well suited by the tempo here.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 6, 7, 8, 12, 15, 17
Strategy: Tuff Host for 0.5 units @ $41/$11 Each-Way
Randwick Race 5 – 1500m – Canterbury Stakes
1. Criterion: Has won in the past over this distance and two preps back when last ran over 1500m was 0.1L 2nd to Real Impact over 1500m. Clearly trained this prep and last prep for further is the issue and I’m not convinced he has the turn of foot in his legs.
2. Kermadec: Flying at home is the word from the Waller stable. Blinkers on to help him sprint fresh. A little short of his best distance, but you have to remember this is a true 1600m horse, so 1300m is not short of his best distance at all. Can win.
3. Our Boy Malachi: Hard to ignore his last start run when it looked like he had gone to the very next level. Got a nice enough tempo and put them to the sword in a few strides. Much harder here but clearly looks good enough.
4. Ecuador: Never measured up to the very top level in terms of getting a win but does always run well.
5. Happy Clapper: Very nice horse. Won 6 of his last 7 runs going through the grades finishing with a 20 horse Group 2 race at course over 1600m. Has to improve to measure up to this.
6. They went around at a fast clip and she just was too good for them first up. Very clear to me she has to go to another level to back up on that performance her first time in WFA-G1 company. Unders.
7. Disappointing run last start 5th behind Mahuta in 3Y-GP2 class. Back up to WFA-G1 class here, does have a WFA-G2 win but Churchill Dancer ran 2nd which isn’t exactly top level class form. Others preferred.
Comments: Mapping is clear in the fact that Ecuador and Our Boy Malachi will sit on the speed setting up a decent enough clip out the front. Based on the first run this prep it’s very hard to oppose Our Boy Malachi here over the 1300m while I feel Kermadec is the key chance to knock him off. Our Boy Malachi is the classiest runner here today who is at his ideal distance.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Our Boy Malachi to win.
Randwick Race 7 – 1600m – Randwick Guineas
1. Press Statement: Clear favourite very well backed. Not the most ideal barrier today drawing the outside, but that didn’t matter in the Caulfield Guineas, going forward and simply too good. First up run this prep won very easy at Rosehill but didn’t beat much there. Will have to work to get over and a good spot without being caught 3-wide.
2. Etymology: Very best run last prep was over 2000m-2500m. First up well beaten over the 1400m and I’m not convinced he can win over this distance in this class.
3. Dal Cielo: Every chance first up over 1400m and was very poor. Better when ridden to lead with a smashing clip put on out the front for mine. Has to return to best to measure up.
4. Shards: A nice enough horse on his best day, he hasn’t won for a long time since a 1300m easy race win. Can run well but his best just isn’t good enough.
5. Le Romain: A surprise packet last start, ran very well for 2nd to Press Statement. Can run okay but can’t see him improving to win.
6. Man of Choice: He looked an okay type last prep but clearly his very best distances were 1800m+ and in lesser class when tested. Didn’t show very much first up for mine.
7. Montaigne: Thought his run last start when 3rd to Press Statement was quite good actually. Barrier 3, would need to push further forward today early to have any chance.
8. Tulsa: Really impressed with his tough run 2nd up last start at Flemington when just missed. Barrier 6, looks very well suited here to get a position midfield at worst for a very good run. Up to 1600m is ideal here. Massive price being bet, especially to place!
9. Gold Ambition: Went around last prep in similar grades and just didn’t measure up to the very best of them. Two runs this prep were okay but others much preferred on what we have seen so far.
10. Balmain Boy: Horrible two runs in this prep. Take on.
11. Mackintosh: NZ import. Won as a 3YO over there but can’t suggest on that he can win this.
12. Data Point: Given up the ‘easy’ money R1 Flemington to have a shot at the big time. I’d be shocked if he really is good enough but he does have ability to run well.
13. Stay With Me: Thought she had every possible chance the last two starts and simply not good enough. Won a Group 1 last prep in 3F grade over 1600m… but I’m not convinced she is going as well this prep.
Comments: Press Statement should be winning. On ratings the other places are up for grabs and Tulsa is top pick for me in this regard. I personally think Tulsa has the ability to beat Press Statement if he gets caught wide from the barrier also, but I’m more than happy to play the safer play in the place bet at very nice odds.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Tulsa for 2 units @ $4.40 to place.
Randwick Race 8 – 1000m – Hyland Race Colours Challenge
1. Ball of Muscle: 17 runs in his career and he has NEVER missed a place. 0.4L off Buffering last prep in WFA-G1 at Moonee Valley. Very best runs have always been over the 1000m distance. Will get the lead with ease today based on my mapping speeds from barrier 1 and word is he is flying at home. Clearly the horse to beat for mine and if the rail is playing as good as expected, then there will be no excuses.
2. Lord of the Sky: Coming back off an injury. Didn’t run in Oakleigh plate due to infection which meant he couldn’t stand/run! Hard to back him off that info and expect him to not have the early tempo required. Prefer it wetter.
3. Shiraz: Very disappointing end to last start. Clearly proved to be a nice type, but finds himself giving weight to Ball of Muscle today after a defeat last prep. Barrier is slightly awkward.
4. Boss Lane: Never run in this grade in 27 runs. Had every chance last start in a Group 3 class so hard to see the step up here.
6. Felines: Always looked a nice type and on the wet track last start went to another level. Have to improve onwards again… but on last start run we have to respect the horse.
7. Rule The River: Every chance last start at Gosford when fairly beaten by Howmuchdoyouloveme. Back to dryer track is suited but hard to see her measuring up.
8. Kinglike: Nice enough win first run in 3Y-Gp2 at Flemington then failed hard at Caulfield in Group 2 grade the next start. Boss doesn’t take the ride today says a lot. Awkward barrier.
9. Speak Fondly: Last prep 4 runs for 3 wins including a 3F-GP1 win over 1600m. Only run over 1000m found two too good for herself. Won over 1200m but best runs were 1400m+.
10. English: Certainly proved to be a nice type as a 2YO but missed the Spring. Certainly word around is that she is flying, but this is a big step up over a distance that she will handle.
11. Ottoman: Loves to run well but seems to find one too good normally. Only win the last two preps was by 0.1L.
Comments: Very keen to be on Ball of Muscle to place here. Huge value in the price. Horse has never missed a place in 17 runs and he looks absolutely suited here.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Ball of Muscle for 4 units at $2.05 to place.
