Welcome to The Profits form guide for 11 June 2016 at Flemington and Morphetville. First of all, i’m skipping Eagle Farm today – I have no faith in just how the track will play the first time they use the surface and I really feel there will be a bias emerge and most likely the rail or some part of the ground will chop up and we just don’t have enough info on it. So yes, there are great fields up there, but I will be picking and choosing and putting any plays for there up on twitter throughout the day based on how it is playing. Last week we landed our best bet at Sandown and also Rosehill… a nice handy $10 winner and $3 winner if you got them at the drift prices. Hopefully we can get a few winners on the board with limited bets on the card today. Really hoping for some positives results today. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Morphetville
Best Bet: Morphetville Race 7 – Super Fun for 3 units @ $3.60 to Win
Flemington
Best Bet: Flemington Race 4 – Mihany for 1.5 units @ $6.50/$2.20 Each-Way
Best Value: Flemington Race 5 – Golden Mane for 0.75 units @$13/$3.50 Each-Way
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 8, 14
Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 12, 14
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 10
Leg Four: 4, 11, 8, 12, 16
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Morphetville Race 7 – 1000m – UBet Handicap
A clear standout in this race for me today is Super Fun. From barrier 5, he will have no issue getting a spot on speed. Most likely we will see him get a sit 1 off the rail with Living Large on his inside and Montre and Alabama Missile most likely crossing over. Either way, I doubt Neilson will get caught in a speed battle. This will give him every opportunity to settle Super Fun, get a good spot, get out early in the straight and beat them all home. Up 2kg today, he is very well weighted again this group of horses.
Comments: Very confident today.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Super Fun for 3 units @ $3.60 to win
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – Trevor Clarke Handicap
1. Reemah: Continues to run well this prep without winning. Same class again today and down in weights with a claim from Dylan Dunn. Up to 1400m looks ideal based on what we have seen to date and a win really wouldn’t shock from the barrier.
2. Payroll: First up run over 1200m at Flemington was obviously better than the books suggest. Blocked for runs, her very best last prep came over the 1400m+ distance when a very close 2nd to Miss Gunpowder in 3YO Group 2 class. Finds herself with a suitable long straight from a very good barrier.
3. Lopartega: 2000m back to 1400m here today and I can’t blame them. She didn’t see out the 2000m last start, but was a very strong BM-64 win two back at Bendigo over the 1600m in a very nice time. Maps to be on speed and in the perfect position for the race. Looks a nice type.
4. Themis: Randwick winner heading into this today. Wide barrier but will push forward as you expect from a waterhouse runner. Best is good enough.
5. Elegant Queen: Bit of a surprise winner last start at Sale just getting the win. Step up in class again here but obviously has ability. Won’t get away with such an easy time out front today.
6. Euro Angel: Untapped potential. 3L slow away in maiden first run in last prep but still won with class. Next start in harder than this blocked for runs and layed in when a very good 3rd. If she comes back as good as she was last prep, she will be hard to hold out in a fast run race.
7. Penny Shares: Won 3 of her last 4 races going through the grades. Won with ease last start at Pakenham on the dirt. Much harder here back to the turf and up to 1400m, but clearly has some ability coming back to her grade also.
8. Via Napoli: Maiden only winner. Placed in similar grades up in Sydney. Looking for a nice good 4 to soft 5 track and should get that here. Has ability.
9. Bedrock Dreams: Improved onwards last start with a nice 2nd to Elegant Queen from off the speed. Can improve again.
10. Lady Selkirk: Easy grade win last start. Well beaten 2nd on Heavy two back over 1400m in similar grade to this. Others preferred.
11. Stormsabrewing: Looked a nice win first up in maiden class when doing a lot wrong. Should have come on from that today.. win wouldn’t shock.
12. Avenue Whisper: Big maiden win on a wet track. Back to dryer today and well up in class. Weir.
13. Jocasta: Very good run last start at Caulfield in similar grade when a close 3rd just beaten at the line. Good barrier here should run well.
14. Red Silhouette: Couldn’t win a BM-58 last start and didn’t have too many excuses. Has to improve.
Comments: A very even race on paper. It’s not often I lean towards a Hawkes stable runner in a race like this, but with 53kg, Euro Angel looks to be well placed here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Euro Angel to win
Flemington Race 4 – 1800m – Ken Cox Handicap
1. Leveraction: A bit of a shock last start when old mate Leveraction handled the wet track to beat a very good field all things considered. 1400m up to 1800m today… ran Angelology to 0.4L four runs back… 3kg claim helps.. will lead and if the rail plays well will be hard to get past.
2. Chestnut Charlie: Over-raced lasts tart in similar grade and was wide but still got home well and got the win. Time was obviously good also. Equal class and not badly weighted today either. Maps to get a sit midfield and should get a nice enough run if lasts the 1800m.
3. Mihany: Very solid win last start at course over 1600m. That run suggested there would be no issues with the 1800m step up here today and the track should be ideal. Maps to sit forward with Leveraction. Looks very well in here.
4. Master Reset: First up run was nice enough when beaten favourite running 2nd.. but three runs since has yet to fire a shot. Back to a dryer track today should obviously suit him better, but even on that it’s hard to suggest him here.
5. Time to Test: Nice enough type this horse. Well down in the weights today compared with Amarela when beaten 0.5L at course and distance last start. Can improve onwards here from a well suited barrier.
6. Amarela: Got the splits at the right times and flew home for a very nice win over the 1800m last start. Equal weight today up in class… clearly has top class ability.
7. Holy Cow: Shocked when found a win two runs back at Sandown. Up in class last start not bad for 3rd over 2000m. Back to 1800m and back in class.. looks okay at the weights but has to improve again.
8. Qadir: Map out the back. Four runs this prep and not gone close on any occasion. Hard to suggest.
9. The Rumour File: Not the worst horse going around here and ran well last start, but i’d be shocked to see a win based on current form.
10. Firehouse Rock: Old mate hasn’t found his form this prep. Can’t have.
11. Fabriano: Old old mate, not in this grade when can’t win BM-58 this prep.
Comments: This is a race with only 3-4 main winning chances. There are quite a few form lines to choose from when deciding your winner here, but I have to go with the Hayes runner in Mihany. He has won 3 of his last 4 with 4L, 2L and 1L wins, while the run at Caulfield was simply a forgive run with something going wrong on the day. 3 weeks between runs, the word is the horse has trained on a treat also and will be very hard to beat off that last start win. The horse that ran 2nd to Mihany last start came out and won in city class next start also. Most importantly, speed will be genuine here.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Mihany for 1.5 units @ $6.50/$2.20 Each-Way
Flemington Race 5 – 2500m – Young Members’ Ball Handicap
1. Hawkspur: Ahhh. He hasn’t won since 2014 but his best last prep was good enough to win this… that being said, his runs this prep have been well below his best.. but he has been going close to places. Probably his easiest assignment all prep.
2. Crafty Cruiser: Sandwich king! Crafty is second up here.. never placed second up ever… always takes a few runs to get to his best. Looks okay in at the weights and last start wasn’t bad either over the 1600m actually… but do feel he needs the run.
3. Second Bullet: Two runs this prep and beaten 0.6L and 0.2L those two times. Turnitaround has come out and won since and is a big form horse. Up to the 2500m is a bit of a questionmark here though for mine straight up from 2000m, having never won at the distance… but he does always run well and is well enough weighted… will be on speed with another setting it up.
4. Sense of Occasion: Three runs this prep and failed to get close to a place. Huge ask here off the last few runs. Wouldn’t be here if McEvoy didn’t think he could win, but i’m doubting it.
5. Falago: Very hard horse to catch. Won five runs back and hasn’t been close since including last start in Adelaide. Has to improve.
6. Master of Arts: Big win two back at the Bool on the heavy track.. last start on Soft just simply too far back when finished off nicely but never a chance to run down the Queens horse with the tempo they ran it at and the bias. Will get the speed on today, but does have to improve up in this class.
8. Araldo Junior: Only one really good win on record since being imported. Three runs this prep have been fine, but to step up here and beat all these horses home is a bit of an ask.
9. Golden Mane: I really liked his last start effort when 1.8L off Bold Sniper. Finished 0.5L off Master of Arts that day and finds himself well in at the weights with a claim. Most importantly, back to a firmer track should be suitable and the 2500m is ideal.
11. San Padre: Found little all this prep. Hard to have.
Comments: Master of Arts looks unders in this race today. Second Bullet is a question at the distance for mine… Golden Mane is really the standout at the price here and worth a bet on the E/W.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Golden Mane for 0.75 units @$13/$3.50 Each-Way
Flemington Race 6 – 2000m – Craftsman Handicap
1. Sohool: BM-64 win by a strong 3L and then 1L last start over 2200m. Loks well suited back to his own class here but really question over back to turf today.
2. Torelli: Nice enough win over 1600m last start in BM-64 grade. Will be going forward from inside barrier. Has every chance here.. well bred.
3. Four By Four: Returned this prep and went bang and bang for two wins in a row. Another stepping up in class but sound times on record.
4. Praecereus: BM-64 winner last start. Previous runs not close to a win a concern certainly when was favourite those two runs. Has to improve onwards again.. bad barrier hurts.
5. Prince of Babylon: CL1 winner at big odds before failing to get close over 2000m from on speed. Last start the same happened back to 1600m… hard to suggest on recent runs.
6. Kilmacurragh: Maiden winner last prep… beat Howard Be Thy Name. First up didn’t lead in easier company and was very poor. Hard to ignore the run… best goes close though.
7. Miss Cooper: Looked a good type last prep. Last two runs suggest she has to improve onwards again up to the 2000m and i’m not convinced she is wanting it. Best is good enough to run well but it’s hard to rate her here especially from barrier.
8. Whoop Whoop: Very nice runs leading into this including a VERY good 3rd in 3YO grade. Up to 2000m will see more improvement. Rates as a winner.
9. Iron Boss: Has his chances all four runs this prep in similar grades and failed to fire. Others preferred.
11. Sadia: Maiden winner last start on a Heavy track and only just won. Hard to suggest the step up here back to dryer.
13. Mapping: Maiden win then BM-58… much harder here today though.. but four back behind Whoop Whoop did run okay.
14. She’s Got Speed: Ignore last start when issues behind the gate as favourite in 3F-GP3… back to 2000m ideal here especially with 0.1L 2nd to Tavi Bay two back over this distance.
15. Cry If I Want To: Couldn’t place in BM-64 last start. Looks to improve with distance but hard to have on current form lines.
16. Vanilla Gold: Maiden winner last start. Has some ability but can’t suggest.
17. Napoleon’s War: Maiden winner last start at Pakenham and the times were quite good… even so has to improve.
18. Dreaded: Maiden winner last start. Only fairly in here. Not for me.
19. Fashion Day: On her best form she actually would run okay here, but hasn’t shown that recently.
20. Gee One Express: Couldn’t win a maiden!
Comments: She’s Got Speed is the standout for me on the ratings in a very open race.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 8, 14
Strategy: She’s Got Speed E/W
Flemington Race 7 – 1400m – Rod Johnson Handicap
1. Heart Testa: Been a while between drinks for old mate. That was over 1200m as well. Goes fine over the 1400m but never won over it. Top weight an issue… will be ridden with a sit for luck.
2. Jacquinot Bay: Will be allowed to roll them along today you would expect. His more than capable of winning this over this distance if at top fitness which is being suggested. Keeps going and going.
3. Jimando: Very strong win last start at course and distance from on speed. Very strong form line out of the 4 back race also. Nicely in here, but would prefer it firmer.
4. Iggimacool: First up run was horrible. Expect much better today than last start, but really hard to suggest her on what we saw.
5. She’s Clean: Waller stable runner down from up north. her best measures up here, but hasn’t shown a glimmer all prep.
6. Petrology: Doesn’t handle a soft track it seems based on last two runs on soft… so forgive last start. Needs the rain to miss and for it to firm up to a Good 4-3 track. Two back run was more than good enough to suggest he can win this and I really think he looks suited back to 1400m.
7. Guest of Honour: Two back run at Caulfield behind Charmed Harmony was very good! Another who is most likely looking for a dryer track today… back to 1400m will have him running well at weights.
8. Eximius: Doesn’t win out of turn. 2000m back to 1400m first up… and doesn’t have a great first up record.
9. By The Grace: Horrible run first up. Needs further but even 1400m isn’t enough.
10. Freshwater Storm: Hard horse to catch. Best seen on firmer tracks. Wasn’t terrible 1.9L 6th last start behind Petrology but finds himself equally in at weights after claims.
11. Luckyi’mbarefoot: Best runs in past on wetter tracks than this. Hasn’t found much two runs this prep. Have to oppose here.
12. Whistle Baby: Huge form lines this prep but failed to win recently. 0.8L 4th and 0.1L 2nd over 1400m and 1200m recently in similar classes. Map midfield.
13. Del Prado: Disappointing run last start at Sandown. Three runs this prep and failed to get close.
14. The New Boy: Two runs in a row at course and distance has run very well just missing both times. Up in weight here the only issue. Respect.
15. Tiny’s Legacy: Takes a few runs to find his best most preps. Never won at track or in this class… prefers wetter.
Comments: It’s been a long time since i’ve tipped him, but The New Boy looks well rated here.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 12, 14
Strategy: The New Boy E/W
Flemington Race 8 – 1000m – Jezabeel Handicap
1. Reldas: Missed the start last prep in Group 1 class and rattled home for 5th. Won at Listed grade and only run at Flemington was 1400m 2nd to Malaguerra. Very best runs have been at the 1200m distance is the BIG issue here along with the top weight and first up run for him.
2. Alberto Magic: Group 3 winner first up this prep then failed to fire the next two starts. Was lame two runs back and then pulled up poorly next start. Struggle to suggest injured horses.
3. General Truce: Old mate hasn’t shown alot the past few preps but last prep did run a cracker for 2nd over 1200m. 1000m at his older age looks a touch too short to find his best.
4. Hard Romp: Two runs to start this prep have obviously been very good with a 3rd to Bullpit and then 5th behind Supido. On speed today down to 54kg after claims looks well suited.
5. Straturbo: QLD form lines. Very good 2L listed win last start at Doomben in a hot time. Handles all surfaces. This is a big chance today.
6. Bullpit: Mr Consistent, he won four runs back and since has been in the finish on all occasions. 1000m is his very best distance and never runs a bad race at course and distance.
7. Vibrant Rouge: Wasn’t the same horse the last two preps. Did get a win deep two preps back into runs.. but only run last start was poor. Been off 8 months.
8. Lonrockstar: Not given a chance last start. Previous runs suggest he is going well enough this prep to figure as a factor, but up in class hurts chances here.
9. Our Nkwazi: Three runs this prep and found nothing. Hard to suggest back to the 1000m here.
10. Olivier: Consistently producing results this prep. Won two in a row and going up in classa gain. Still very well weighted and should find space to run into it. Never placed at track.
11. African Pulse: Should be retired on runs this prep. Pass.
Comments: Wide open race with several chances. For mine, Straturbo is flying and has the proven form lines in the race. Alberto Magic coming off lameness issues is big unders.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 10
Strategy: Straturbo E/W
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – Comic Court Handicap
1. Volcanic Ash: I have a fair bias for this horse… not really a run firs tup to judge him on really when blocked for runs. Won over this distance last prep 3rd up in harder company. Weight makes it tough.
2. Here to There: Every chance on speed the last two starts and found a few too good. Down in class here and up in weight. Has the claimer onboard but barrier 14… won’t find an easy lead.
3. Temps Voleur: Good run 4th three back but last two runs very average. Up to 1400m ideal but still has to improve onwards. Last win over 2000m.
4. Andrassy: Very nice run two back in Mares grade blocked for runs defeated 1.1L. Ignore last start when disappointing over in Adelaide and rate on two previous runs. Very well in here and should be suited up to 1400m.
5. Aurum Spirit: Good form lines coming into this. Well beaten last start the only concern.. back to 1400m also.
6. Caprese: Won two back at Sandown the last start lost a plate and got further back than expected. Up to 1400m is a query for me… needs to jump with them.
7. Kinselmac Manner: BM-70 winner two back in the country and ran well at big odds last start 2nd to the rat. Has to improve onwards but is going the right way about things off that first up run!
8. Spiritof Endeavour: Over to Adelaide to win a BM-64 and then close 2nd in Open grade.. back to BM-75 and close 2nd again. Going well enough to suggest a good run.
9. Coram: Horrible run last start at Sandown coming off a very good run at Caulfield. 4 runs 0 wins at this track. 12 runs 0 wins at this class. Best runs back over this distance is a positive.
10. Bradman: Been running well in similar class. Horrible barrier today but will be going back anyway. Last start blocked for runs at critical stages which cost him. Will go well here.
11. Must Be Mink: Weir runner. Won last start in an okay race. Can go on with it today but others may be more progressive in this grade?
12. Alleyoop: Hasn’t got close to a win all prep even though went around short priced each time. Done a lot wrong. Has ability clearly.
13. Elite Tiger: Got the win last start at the rat over Kinselmac Manner. Has to improve on that run again to win this though.
14. Face Forward: Hasn’t measured up this prep to the levels needed to win this.
15. Baby Don’t Cry: A few good runs this prep. Up in class again here but 1400m will suit.
16. All About Rhythm: Maps well to get a strong position forward from barrier 1. Well in at the weights, maps well and times are very sound based on runs this prep. Clearly has the ability.
Comments: Two standouts on form in Andrassy and All About Rhythm.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 11, 8, 12, 16
Strategy: Back Andrassy and All About Rhythm.
