Welcome to The Profits form guide for 23 July 2016 from Flemington and Canterbury Park. The rain has come all around the country and we can expect some soft tracks to be the flavour of the day. Keep an eye out ot see just how the wind is playing today at Flemington as the front runners could be severly disadvantaged if it’s strong coming from the west as expected. Our largest bet in a large while is on the cards today with a 6 unit outlay. As always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 – Voodoo Lad for 6 units @ $1.95 to win
Next Best Bets
Canterbury Park Race 5 – King’s Officer for 2 units @ $7/$2.15 Each-Way
Other Bets
Flemington Race 2 – Kenjorwood for 2 units @ $2.40
Flemington Race 3 – Firehouse Rock for 1.5 units @ $4.60
Best Value Bets
Flemington Race 9 – World of Hope for 0.75 units @ $8.50/$3 Each-Way
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 9
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 8, 11, 12
Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 6, 11, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Canterbury Park Race 5 – 1550m – #TheRaces Handicap
1. Slow Pace: 59kg after claims. First up off a spell. Last prep found his two best runs on Soft tracks over 1600m and 2000m. First up runs in the past haven’t produced a high point rating and I really feel at the weights he needs the run. Will be getting back from the position.
2. McCreery: Last prep ran a nice 2nd at Rosehill first up over 1400m on a Good track. Won next start in BM-78 grade on a Soft track at Gosford. First up this prep found several too good off a tough 1200m run on a Heavy 10. Had a soft trial in between. Certainly suited here but has to improve on very best to be winning. Will get back to midfield at very best.
3. Thunder Down Under: New Zealand import first up in Australia today. Has been here long enough to have had a trial last week on a Soft track to lead into this which is a positive. Won two in a row over 1600m heading into this on Good and Heavy tracks. Best runs have been over this distance range.
4. Magical Stance: Will be pushing forward from a wise barrier. Three runs this prep and has failed to get within closer than 2L of a win. Handles wet tracks… another tough test.
5. King’s Officer: Three runs this prep for three strong wins. It can’t be under estimated just how strong the heavy 10 win was at Rosehill 2nd up over 1400m. Since then has gone onwards and upwards with large weights on dryer tracks. Very well suited back to what should be a Heavy 8 track. From the more positive barrier today, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him sit a position or two further forward with many back markers inside of him. Most importantly, will be riding for an easy time 1 off the rail.
6. Lanciato: Two runs thos prep in Sydney after a freshen up since flying over from New Zealand where he was a 3YO winner. They continue to race him out of his age group which is fairly strange if you ask me. Breeding and previous runs suggest they are looking for dryer tracks to find the best out of him. Nice enough runs the last two starts but has to improve onwards and upwards here.
7. Gambler’s Blues: 51.5kg after claims here, looks to be the front runner on mapping and there is every chance they will attempt to push the tempo with this horse knowing it’s hard to chase down a horse with 51.5kg. Goes okay on wet and at distance, but up in class I can’t have him.
8. Got Unders: Will be fighting for the lead today from Gambler’s Blues. Weight and barrier will force him to work for the lead early on… previous three runs this prep haven’t been good enough to suggest a win or place.
9. Can Dominate: Been struggling to place in country grade races such as Taree and Port Macquarie. Not a terrible run in BM-55 last start but this is several classes higher.
Comments: There are only five real ‘winning’ chances on paper which always gives me confidence heading into a race where we are being offered $4+ the field which means each-way odds will be available. I’m a believer in King’s Officer.. I have been since we went large and best bet the horse three runs back when winning by 4L at big odds and I have been the past two runs. The tempo will be solid and the only thing that will be stopping King’s Officer from being in the finish today is a leaders bias on the track. Even then, I expect the horse to have more than enough in hand to overpower such a bias.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: King’s Officer for 2 units @ $7/$2.15 Each-Way
Flemington Race 1 – 1400m – Murray Cox Handicap
1. Back to the Bowler: Very good win last start at Sale from start to finish on a wet track. Will be suited here today but has certainly been a drifter in the betting.
2. Casta: Nice enough win in a Mildura maiden heading into this race today on a good surface. Time doesn’t exactly strike you as a top class win, but it was good. Hard stable to catch currently. Horse has potential.
3. Loch Oir: Nice enough win first up at the bool when well backed in a small field. Handled the wet conditions and looks well suited up to the 1400m here from the barrier.
4. Rock’n’rollrock: Good enough win last start beating an okay field. Unproven on wet tracks and a big step up from an awkward barrier.
5. So Si Bon: Chances gone at the start when a reasonable run 6th last start at Caulfield. Quick turn around and looks suited up to 1400m. Goes well at track and also on wet tracks.
6. Highballing: Third time lucky breaking through for the win last start at Pakenham on the Synthetic from out the back. Big improvement needed again to tackle this class of race but certainly is well thought of.
7. Odeon: Went around favourite only run in maiden grade on a soft track… went wide.. but no real excuse for mine just wasn’t good enough.
9. Stately Boy: Just missed first up at Pakenham over this distance on the Synthetic in maiden grade. Struggle to suggest.
10. Savvy Belle: Green but held on just last start over the 1400m at Pakenham beating Stately Boy. Has to improve.
11. Red Velvet Swing: Well backed both starts to date and hasn’t got within 4.4L of a win. Stable obviously think a lot of her pushing her into this today.
Comments: Three main horse I’d want to be bettering around here in So Si Bon, Loch Oir and Back To The Bowler. Loch Oir looks to have the most potential to come from the last start run for mine being 2nd up here today and should be well suited by the track and conditions from a very favourable barrier.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Loch Oir to win.
Flemington Race 2 – 1800m – Henry Bolte Handicap
1. Kenjorwood: Back to a dryer track today which i feel is where he finds his very best runs. First up run and win was very strong… unlucky two back… last start wide no cover and had to do a lot of work and was a really decent run all things considered. 3kg claim today key and maps to get a perfect run.
2. Onpicalo: Running well enough this prep. Got a win two back at Moonee Valley but rightfully beaten last start with a respectable third behind iggimacool and petrology. Will be pushing forward to try and lead and to set a solid tempo.
3. Rhythm to Spare: Been a while between drinks. Five runs this prep and failed to place on all five occasions. Not going well enough on last two starts.
4. Zebrinz: Very disappointing run last start… similar two previous runs as well. Up to 1800m and really not sure waht to make of the horse off the past few runs. Back to a good track is helpful.
5. Pin Your Hopes: Won three of his last four races… the wetter the better for this horse which obviously isn’t what will occur today. Only just held on the last two starts and this is by far his biggest test to date. Maps to get a midfield position and a nice run.
6. Electric Fusion: Will be out the back today. Three runs in this prep. Best on dryer tracks so will be suited back to Flemington today. Nice enough run last start when 5th at Caulfield… clearly has to improve on current form to be a winning hope though.
Comments: Drink Beer Back Weir. Kenjorwood is very well weighted and maps even better in a race that will be setup for his tough nature. Most importantly, I really think the extra 200m will be suitable for his grinding style.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Kenjorwood for 2 units @ $2.40
Flemington Race 3 – 2000m – K A Morrison Handicap
1. Straight Jacket: 2kg claim down to 57kg. Maps as clear leader in this race today. Hasn’t won since late 2015, but has been putting in some solid runs in open/listed grade. Last win was in this grade and with 57kg he finds himself very well in at the weights. Best performances recently have been around this distance and on this type of wet surface.
2. Firehouse Rock: Blocked for runs last start when probably should have won at Sale. Previous run 4th to Leveraction put the writing on the wall… really handling the soft tracks this time in and is well suited in this grade.
3. Diamond Duke: 1.5kg claim down to 55.5kg. Maps to sit on speed with Straight Jacket. Has a nice enough record over this distance range from the past. Four runs this prep and he hasn’t been close to a win sadly.
4. Name The Day: Consistent type. Never performed well above this grade and is just 1 win from 7 runs in this grade, but obviously put in claims on the last two runs including a 0.1L 2nd last start at course over 1600m. Questionable if the horse really wants to go 1600 straight up to 2000m, but I don’t expect the pace to be overly tough.
5. Our Positive Move: Measured up strongly overseas in France before being sold and shipped out here where he has shown no form since. Hard to suggest.
6. Calibrate: 1.5kg claim down to 53.5kg.Big step up in grade after a nice enough 2nd at Sandown on heavy last start. Has to improve but also has to be considered a chance.
7. Triple Gold: Nice win three back at Sale suggesting he has ability to win this prep… but last two starts saw him find one way too good and then four others better. Has ability and the right jockey but has to improve to measure up.
9. Bian Late: 2kg claim down to 54kg. Couldn’t plac ein BM-64 grade last start and failed the previous two starts to win in BM-58 grade. No thanks.
Comments: Straight Jacket, Firehouse Rock and Name The Day are the three standouts on my ratings. My stats suggest there is every chance Name the Day will find trouble getting in and could in turn be ridden 3-wide the trip or even 3-4 pairs back. I really don’t think the numbers suggest Name the Day is a $2.50 shot either… I have to take the horse on at the odds. I can’t trust Straight Jacket to last this straight today either with the weight based on the previous starts.. the horse will be there at the end, but there’s only one horse I want to be on. Firehouse Rock has put the writing on the wall.. this is a horse that has won in city grade in open class in the past… this is his easiest task all campaign for mine and we get the right price to find out what he is made of.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Firehouse Rock for 1.5 units @ $4.60
Flemington Race 4 – 1800m – Wilson Medic One Rising Stars Final
1. Yulong Baby: Close but no cigar last start at Caulfield over 1700m on a soft track when just missed flying home from the back. Down in class and up in weight here, certainly looks well suited first time at Flemington on a rain affected track.
2. Khutulun: Come back in ‘decent’ form this prep but certainly hasn’t blown anyone away with performances. I really feel she is crying out for a good track and doesn’t get it here. First up run on good was her best. Best runs in the past have all been on good tracks. Not today.
3. Daniela Rosa: Huge win last start flying home to claim Euro Angel and to street the rest of the field on championships day. Always a concern when a horse has had their ‘grand final’, but she was only second up that day suggesting there is a lot more improvement to come. Will love the soft track. Out of 3YO grade again.
4. Ma Jones: BM-70 winner beating an average group of horses three runs back at Bendigo. Beaten 0.3L two runs back at Moonee Valley in a similar grade of race on a soft track. Failed hard last start at Morphetville though and no explanation into why.
5. Melaleuca: Having her 35th run today… 10th run in this class and only placed once! 6 runs at track for 1 place… horse of limited ability and i’d struggle to suggest the win here.
6. Native Land: Frustrating horse to follow. Never won or placed in this grade of race in the past and never won at track. Goes well on wet or dry but last few runs suggest this is a step beyond.
7. Savannah Moon: Fairly beaten by some average types the past two starts. Hard to see a win here.
8. Winta Chiller: Nice enough type of horse that has always shown ability. 21 starts for 0 wins in this grade though.. last start run certainly had merit though… 51kg! Don’t dismiss.
10. Almaviv: Well beaten the past two strats in easier grade. BM-58 winner. Struggle to suggest a place.
Comments: As the market suggests Daniela Rosa and Yulong Baby are the two standouts. Winta Chiller is the value runner in the race. I believe Yulong Baby has the greater ‘turn of foot’ than Daniela Rosa and will be coming home hard, but Daniela Rosa may just have too much of a gap heading into the straight, better weighted overall.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Daniela Rosa to win
Flemington Race 5 – 1400m – TAB/ATA Trainers’ Trust Handicap
1. Deal With It: Weir runner. Won two in a row going through the grades. Got a long way back last start and had to run wide but built momentum and was simply too good. Loves it wet. Decent type but big step up again here.
2. Kinshachi: Goldolphin runner. Been running well heading into this and was no disgrace beaten last start in open age class. Back to this today up to 1400m and back to a dryer track is ideal. One of the chances.
3. Powderworks: First up after an average last prep which saw a win in R-62 grade and a 2nd in 3YB-70 grade. Beaten favourite in BM-64 grade as well over 1800m. 1400m ideal.
4. Codebreak: Well beaten last start at Sandown on a soft track which is a big concern. Two back run was decent. Has to improve.
5. Syrahbeel: Very nice win at Pakenham heading into this. Has taken a while to get wins on the board and to come into her own.. but won 3 from 4 and has to be respected.
6. Atomic Lokade: Awkward barrier will make it hard to get a positive spot in running without being 3-wide. Looks well enough suited in this class of previous runs.. but has to improve.
7. Four Sisters: Simply too far back last start and ran on well for a huge 2nd behind Deal With It. Well weighted again today and well suited at Flemington from a better barrier.
8. Just Stellar: Had her chance last start and just wasn’t good enough to run down Deal With It, letting Four Sisters run past. Will get a charmed run but has to find another length today.
9. Stylemaker: Had her chances last start when a respectable 9th behind Majestic Lass. Well beaten 5th to Deal With It two back.
10. Single Note: Nice enough run last start at Caulfield… lacks a load of early speed so up to 1400m should see her much better suited here. Wasn’t a terrible run but certainly didn’t finish off as you would hope with the run given… Finished within 1L of 6 runners with only the two favourites getting away out the front. Wet track could be a changer here.
11. Central Park Belle: Couldn’t win a maiden heading into this. Struggle to place.
Comments: Not overly thrilled to be playing here. Four Sisters is the top pick on all the ratings in a wide open race… Single Note the value.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Four Sisters to win. Smaller bet Single Note.
Flemington Race 6 – 1200m – Bruce Gadsden Handicap
1. Mighty Like: Gets in okay at the weights with 3kg claim and will be going back from the good barrier. Group 3 and Open races back to this BM-90 first up… never missed a place first up in the past. Best runs have been on dryer.
2. Voodoo Lad: Over-raced last start when found one simply too good on the day. No disgrace at all with the run and well back in grade here. Will be better suited today having the experience on the track.
3. Pyrrolic: Goes well enough at this track. Best runs in the past have been over further. Goes okay on soft. Only run last prep was breathing issues.
4. Smackdown: Ran very well two back behind some okay types then failed to find anything down the straight last start. Hard to suggest.
5. Kirani: Goes well first up.. never placed at thist rack from 3 starts… only won once in this grade in the past… has to be at his best.
6. Nicoscene: Found nothing first up which is a big concern. Not a great straight track runner either. Hard to have for mine.
7. Magnus Reign: Put in some very average runs since coming back this prep and even last prep was average. Couldn’t touch.
8. Rich Jack: Well beaten last two starts at Flemington down the straight. Best runs have been at Caulfield most recently. Not great on soft either.
9. Bon Rocket: Been running well all three runs this prep in easier grade but hasn’t won. Never placed in this class. Hard to have. Has to improve and needs further.
10. Villopoto: Hasn’t won since late 2015 in much easier grade. 7 runs 0 places in this grade in the past and never won on wet.
11. Sagabella: Struggle to suggest a place on form the last 6 runs.
Comments: Very keen on Voodoo Lad today. Ratings wise I have him closer to a $1.60 shot than the $1.95 being bet, as the bookies opened the horse at. My Quaddie is made up of those I feel are the dangers if he doesn’t win, but in reality, I have him winning by more than a length on ratings if all goes to plan.
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 9
Strategy: Voodoo Lad for 6 units @ $1.95 to win
Flemington Race 7 – 2500m – Bitalli Handicap
1. Au Revoir: Hasn’t run a decent race in 6 starts (since Feb 2015! Up to 2500 today should obviously be suitable but best has been seen on dryer and hasn’t shown anything this prep so far. Take note if money comes though.
2. Bold Sniper: Not suited by the tempo set last start but still ran home well for 2nd. Down in weights which is a positive with the claim also.. will be on speed again.. probably take a sit. Has to improve onwards again to be winning.
4. Araldo Junior: Allowed to roll two back at course and distance on a soft track and won with ease. Last start went along slow out front and paid the price. Very inconsistent horse and hard to catch. Need a similar good ride to be a chance.
5. Manalapan: Showed nothing both runs this prep. Open class winner in ireland in the past over 2400m+ but hasn’t shown enough for me and wants it dry.
6. Black Tomahawk: Big step up in class. Okay weight but not great really. Hasn’t won since 2015 and that was a decent win that day.. but the reality is the ride won the race that day. Has to improve.
7. Backbone: Hasn’t been a winner since 2014. Been running quite well actually but inconsistently. Has to improve.
9. Black Stardom: Three and Four back runs in easier company were good. No disgrace two back but last start well beaten off. Clearly has to improve.
10. Nassi: Couldn’t win a BM-64 last start.
Comments: This is a very low grade race overall and i’m amazed they are racing for 90k. I very much want to stay out of betting here.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6
Strategy: Back Bold Sniper
Flemington Race 8 – 1600m – Flemington Event Staff Handicap
1. Lord Durante: I’ve seen criminals more trustworthy than this bloke… he is one of the hardest horses to catch… especially when you consider he has actually won 8 times! Best runs in the past have been on soft tracks.. 9 runs for 2 places at track a big concern.. but this is his biggest drop back in class in a very long time. Maps well finding a spot on speed – potentially leading if given it easy. Hard to chase down if finds his best.
2. Refulgent: Just ignore the fact he went around last start at Bendigo on the Heavy. Two previous runs on Good tracks were sensational behind some good horses and form lines. Loves Flemington on past runs and handles soft tracks. Allen onboard a big plus for mine.
3. Royal Rapture: Disappointed followers last start when 7th at Caulfield coming off a good win the previous start beating Leveraction who had won in city previously. Handles wet tracks and can repeat a solid run again today here.
4. Cooldini: Hasn’t won in the last three preps. Starts a new prep today and has never placed in 6 first up runs. Last win was over 2600m. Never won on soft but has on heavy. Interestingly, last win was beating the Melbourne Cup winner Prince of Penzance!
5. Great Esteem: Won early on in this prep but we are now 6 months down the track and he is running like absolute rubbish. Hard to suggest here today.
6. Lucques: Pushed him along for some bold targets last prep and made his mark. Did win over 1800m early on last prep but even so his best was over 2500m+. Needs the run here i’d imagine.
8. Victory Downs: BM-90 winner last start over in Adelaide.. won an open grade race three back over there also…. only fail was two back… have to respect his horse and Dunn takes the ride.
9. Vizhaka: Hasn’t run well both races this prep. Last prep was running horrible then with 1.5 months between runs won very well at Bairnsdale on a Good track. Hard to suggest.
11. Volcanic Ash: Very disappointing run last start and had every chance to win two back at Morphetville. Up in grade again here and wetter surface.. I think we have to wait until he finds a Good track to see his very best again.
12. Jerilderie Letter: Well backed today into a very short priced favourite. I think he is 100% a false favourite at the prices that are simply wrong… You don’t go from 3YO grade up to BM-90 open grade against a classy field like this and start favourite. Price is wrong.
13. Award of Merit: Disappointing run last start at course and distance on soft. Previous run was a big win on a good track. Has to improve on last start effort and most likely takes a sit today instead.
15. Margin Trader: Needs further.
Comments: The most open race of the day. I couldn’t go anything but wide in this race quaddie wise. Very happy to take on Jerilderie Letter at the price also on lay markets. Lord Durante could be given this race out the front… hard horse to catch but looks well suited here.
Confidence 30%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 8, 11, 12
Strategy: Back both Spreadeagled and Lord Durante.
Flemington Race 9 – 1100m – VRC Recognition Handicap
1. Badajoz: Done nothing wrong really heading here today. Gone through the grades up in Sydney and measured up. This is certainly his toughest task to date, but he has the ability to measure up and run well. Handles wet tracks.
2. Prussian Vixen: Strong runs on wet tracks last prep. Never won first up a concern and first run down the straight. Has the ability to run well on everything i’ve seen.
3. Thelburg: Speedster who was at his limit last start. Back to 1200m is ideal for this talented front runner who has been well placed in the past. Concern is that his style is better suited to Pakenham or Moonee Valley rather than Flemington.
4. Manihi Mischief: Every chance last start when well beaten in easier grade as favourite. Form before that hard to contest with. First up today.
5. Runson: Breathing issues two back when 2.2L 7th at course in this class on soft. Previous two wins both been on Synthetic. Has the class.
6. Ability: hard horse to catch this bloke. Unlucky last start at similar distance in this class. Weighted nicely and as long as he handles the straight better than previous attempt should be just fine.
7. Vinnie Vega: BM-65 grade winner last start on heavy. Looks well outclassed in city grade today.
8. Hoplites: Finished off last prep competing over 1600-1800m. Looks well out of depth distance wise today.
9. Truculent: BM-70 win last start on synthetic… only had to beat 4 other runners. Solid enough win but really this is a step up big time.
10. Tyrannize: Consistent type. Has won at course down the straight beating a nice type in Antelucan. Pulled up poorly after first up fail at course over 1000m. Soft track an issue?
11. World of Hope: I have a lot of time for this filly who i think has a good future. First up run and win was good enough to measure up here. Found no luck at all of her past three runs and looks primed down the straight where she should find no excuses from the barrier.
12. Astro Castro: First time runner.
13. Ruth’s Boy: Looked a nice type winning a trial heading into this. Huge jump needed to measure up here though in the big time.
14. Schillie Billie: Couldn’t win maidens last prep.
Comments: World of Hope is the only runner at the odds I can consider in this open race to end the day. I think the horse is primed and ready for the straight and loves it wet. Race will be run to suit.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 6, 11, 13
Strategy: World of Hope for 0.75 units @ $8.50/$3 Each-Way
