Welcome to The Profits form guide for 9 July 2016 from Flemington. It’s been a few tough weeks on the punt for us. We have a very confident best bet on the cards today while we are also quite confident that we will be landing another best bet today as well with what’s on the cards. Overall, this looks a solid day all around and that’s represented by how many units we are betting. Fingers crossed as always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 2 – Euro Angel for 5 units @ $2.10
Next Best Bets
Flemington Race 4 – Trenchant for 1.5 units @ $3.50 to win.
Flemington Race 8 – Odyssey Moon for 1 unit @ $3.90. Prince of Brooklyn for 0.5 units @ $8.00
Best Value Bet
Flemington Race 9 – Sea Spray for 0.5 units @ $19/$4.90 Each-Way
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 2, 3, 7
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1600m – Silver Bowl Series Final
1. Jerilderie Letter: Nice enough run first up when a close 4th with top weight at Caulfield a week ago. Short backup and up to 1600m is obviously ideal for this horse. Gets top weight again today but does look well suited. Has been backed.
2. War Legend: Had his chances last time out at course and distance when well beaten 5th behind Lady Selkirk. better weighted today and barrier doesn’t help.
3. Hand From Above: Expected to push forward to be on speed. Comes into this off a strong win at Warwick Farm in much easier class with 61.5kg on a soft track… down in weight and looks the type to measure up on what has been shown to date. Sound sectionals.
4. Moss ‘n’ Dale: Two runs this prep for three wins. Gone around a good price each race. Up to 1500m on heavy last start won well again. Step up in class again obviously and has to improve, but does look sharp.
5. Lady Selkirk: Strong win last start at course and distance. Beat Hursley who has won since. Weighted well again and barrier 1 will mean she gets the right run, held up for the final 300-400m. Expect to be in it in the finish and in the right position on the track.
6. Savatone: Easy enough win in much easier grade on Heavy 8 at Bendigo last start. Significant improvement required at the weights to get the win. Minor chance.
7. Ragazzo Del Corsa: Doesn’t go well on the wetter track surfaces. Best runs early in prep good enough to measure up, but i can’t see it.
8. Sir Sagamore: Will be rock hard fit after last start when simply ridden to do far too much. Handled the track no issues and down in weight is a positive. Better barrier today the key to a better run.
9. Galaxy Raider: Huge run last start at course and distance when 4th to lady Selkirk when flashing late. Held up for a long time. Down in weight also today. Hard to ignore on form.
10. Sirfontein: Maiden winner. Hard to suggest.
Comments: Very happy to take the form lines with improvement in Lady Selkirk and Galaxy Raider today. Getting the right prices to back both.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back both Lady Selkirk and Galaxy Raider to win equal amounts.
Flemington Race 2 – 1600m – Rivette Series Final
1. Euro Angel: Inside barrier not exactly ideal today for a horse going back, but shouldn’t be much of an issue. Top weight for a reason, it was a huge win last start at course over 1400m in a very nice time. Obviously had the book thrown at her weight wise today, but even with that, it’s hard to see her losing based on last start run and her jump out.
2. Daniela Rosa: Nice strong win last start at Sale when beating an okay type in Effortless Power. Doesn’t look well enough in at the weights based on going well up in class here though. Has to improve but enjoys the wet tracks.
3. Payroll: Gains significant weight on Euro Angel for the 3.45L defeat two back and did over-race that day. Well beaten last start though.
4. Georgie’s Luce: Did a lot of work last start at course and distance in similar grade. Fell out of it late but wasn’t a terrible run considering work done. Won’t get it any easier today though.
5. Elegant Queen: Well beaten last start at course over 1100m. Back up to 1600m off a strange placing last start. Goes okay over these distances but well beaten three back by Euro Angel.
6. Avenue Whisper: Well beaten very quickly in the straight last start. Didn’t seem to get the distance. Better weighted than two back run when 2nd to Euro Angel. Has to improve alot.
7. Effortless Power: Beaten last start by Daniela Rosa. Has ability but has to find another gear to be in the finish here.
8. Reigning In Paris: Two runs this prep and well beaten in both. Can’t suggest.
9. Celestial Jewel: Hasn’t found enough all runs this prep to even suggest a place. Take on.
Comments: It’s a big weight to carry, but as long as Euro Angel gets a clear run today I can’t see them beating her. She is a class act and has lengths on this field at her best.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Euro Angel for 5 units @ $2.10
Flemington Race 3 – 2000m – VRC-CRV Cup Tour Trophy
1. Killarney Kid: Been up a long time this prep. Weir runner that won four in a row in easier grades than this. Fairly beaten as favourite two back at Flemington and then beaten last start also. No excuses here today. Can run well.
2. Survived: Good win in easier grade three runs back. Stays at the 2000m which i don’t think suits him compared to the longer distances. Weighted okay enough but has to improve again to run well behind this grade of runner.
3. Sandhill Chief: Good win two back over Killarney Kid in easier grade. Well beaten last start in harder grade race. Has to improve onwards again.
4. Magic Consol: Nice run last start in easier grade when 3rd at course over a lesser distance. Goes well at this distance and on this ground. Toughest test to date.
6. Straight Jacket: Beaten favourite last time out with a low weight behind Sandhill Chief. No excuses. Needs to reproduce best to have a chance.
7. It’sall AboutHarry: Nice run 4th behind Magic Consol last start. Best runs in past have probably been over this distance but it’s a struggle to suggest the progression.
9. Jimivag: Huge step up in class. Hard to even consider for a place.
10. The Terricks: Well beaten last few starts in much easier. Take on.
11. Turf Crusher: Nice enough horse but couldn’t win in BM-64 grade last two starts.
Comments: This is very much one of the lowest rated $100k+ races you will see in a while. We have a field of country cup horses competing for a cup at Flemington in a high stakes race at a staying distance. Hard to be overly confident about any runner here, but Killarney Kid gets the tick.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Killarney Kid to win.
Flemington Race 4 – 1600m – Taj Rossi Series Final
1. Moshway: Ran well last start at course over 1400m, but the jury is out if he really wants the extra distance today. Best is probably over the 1200m distance from what i’ve seen.
2. Trenchant: Showed strong improvement with the longer straight last start and extra 200m to let down. Looks a very good type and can win again here.
3. Cliff Hanger: Very nice win two back at Sale, but last start was disappointing from a decent enough position in running. Has to improve.
4. Captain Duffy: 1200m up to 1600m is certainly a tough ask. Won well enough over in Adelaide but this is certainly the testing material. Could be value.
5. Cobbmore: Maiden winner in decent style. Went around favourite last start when slow away and over raced throughout. Has to improve.
6. Fast ‘n’ Rolling: Nice enough run 3rd last start but well beaten by Trenchant. Hard to see the turn around needed.
7. Vee Eight: Two wins in last two runs in much easier grade on heavy tracks over much shorter. Struggle to suggest it here.
8. All Out of Love: Maiden winner. Well beaten last start. Struggle to see the improvement required.
9. Bouffon: Well beaten on heavy in a maiden. No thanks.
10. Cha Chang: Beaten a long way last start in a maiden. Can’t see it.
11. Futura: No money for him last start and well beaten. Expect similar.
13. Stornaway: Well beaten last start. Struggle to suggest on two runs to date.
14. The Perfect Crop: No excuses last start. Take on.
Comments: The win of Trenchant last start was legit. There is no reason to jump off today and the price on offer is more than good enough.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Trenchant for 1.5 units @ $3.50 to win.
Flemington Race 5 – 1200m – All Victorian Sprint Series Final
1. Reldas: Not suited at this track from past two runs and not going well enough just yet if solely basing off last two starts….. but I would suggest up to 1200m is ideal today and if he is to peak it is here.
2. Alberto Magic: Ignore last start, the horse does put in average runs every now and then…. but even on that, has to improve on past two runs to measure up.
3. Voodoo Lad: Fairly beat Duke of Brunswick in a good race last start at Moonee Valley. Duke has come out and won since franking the form. Only issue is first time down the straight and you really can’t take Moonee Valley form to the bank on this track.
4. Majestic Duke: Best runs are over further. Goes okay at Flemington but those best runs were over 1600m+. Needs further to find best.
5. Smackdown: I thought his run last start wasn’t too bad at all blocked for runs and did alot wrong. Won in Open class two preps back… issue is doesn’t have a win on this track.. but he is a sneaky chance here.
6. Magnus Reign: Disappointing run two back when a huge drifter then fairly beaten last start. Hard to see the required improvement… has won down the straight. Doesn’t like it wet.
7. Our Nkwazi: Fair time between wins. Not the worst run last start 4th but well beaten. Has to find lengths.
9. Rich Jack: Goes well down the Flemington straight. Nice enough 6th last start but clearly needs to find more.
10. Ruettiger: Very strong finish last start to run 3rd to Odyssey Moon. Can go one better up to 1200m today if good enough.
Comments: Voodoo Lad first time down the straight is under the odds solely based off a MV run. Happy to side with Ruettiger while Reldas is the big value and can improve here.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Ruettiger to win. Also a smaller bet on Reldas.
Flemington Race 6 – 2600m – Banjo Paterson Series Final
1. Bold Sniper: Wasn’t allowed to lead last start and over raced. Wasn’t disgraced last start but was fairly beaten. Won’t be allowed an easy lead at all here either which makes it hard. Will need to find best.
2. Master of Arts: Too strong and too good last start when never really in doubt a long way out winning well at Flemington. Up in weight here the only negative. Maps well.
3. Araldo Junior: Led all the way and won well last start at course and similar distance with a very low weight. Well up in weight here but will appreciate the going and also bias.
5. Tremec: Old mate hasn’t shown anything this prep. Was well backed last start though for a strange reason. Take on.
6. River’s Lane: Winning two back in easier grade. Found little last start. Hard to see even at his best.
7. Wells: Ran a ripper of a race for 3rd last start behind Master of Arts. Well enough weighted. Will need a special ride to win.
9. Carbon Cut: Couldn’t place in BM-58 grade last two starts.
10. Kuakata: Couldn’t win BM-58’s the last two starts.
Comments: This is a race that will have tempo setup by Araldo Junior. It will be run to suit the likes of Master of Arts and Wells. Hard for me to be betting here with both favourites too short on my ratings. Wells is the only overs in the race, but i’m not liking the place price on offer either.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 7
Strategy: Master of Arts to win.
Flemington Race 7 – 1600m – VRC-CRV Winter Championship Series Final
1. Jacquinot Bay: Very comfortable win last start over the 1400m. Up to 1600m which is a huge help to him. I really don’t think he was suited to find his best last start with the slow pace, but he had the class to hold them all off with the top weight anyway. Suited here again but will need to make sure he gets an on speed spot.
2. Kenjorwood: Nice enough win two back over Onpicalo, but well beaten last start without any real excuses. Up in weight again today and barrier hurts.
3. Chance to Dance: Not suited last start at Moonee Valley when a good enough run 5th. Better suited to a longer straight and looks ready to run well.
4. Iggimacool: Got the win last start in mares grade and takes a step up here. Has to improve at the weights but will love the extra 200m.
5. Rugged Cross: Well and fairly beaten last start. Hard to see the required improvement based on current form.
6. Rhythm to Spare: Every possible chance the last four runs. Take on.
7. Onpicalo: Nice enough run last start at Moonee Valley when controlled the pace and won well. Up in weight and has to improve back to this track but has to be considered.
8. Petrology: Well beaten last time out. Hard to see the form turn around even at the weights.
9. Minnie Downs: Good win last start but it had been a while between runs. Loves the sting out and gets it again. Win wouldn’t be a total shock.
10. By The Grace: Beaten twice in a row this prep by Jacquinot Bay. Suited up in distance here and loves the track and the sting out, but has to find the extra gear.
11. Fast and Free: Good run 2nd up at Moonee Valley when ran on well for 2nd to Onpicalo. Won since at Bendigo but didn’t beat much that day.. likes these conditions and won previously here.
12. Zebrinz: Continues to be well backed but just doesn’t get the wins. Every chance last two runs. Hard to suggest today.
13. Del Prado: Horrible last start when wide and over raced and didn’t appreciate the run on the slow tempo. Questionable up to 1600m for mine and hard to back off that last run either.
14. War Story: Looks well out of place on previous two runs in this high grade but he could find more today third up.
Comments: Nice and wide open race as expected. Jacquinot Bay has done nothing wrong this prep and will measure up well again here at the weight given.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10
Strategy: Jacquinot Bay to win.
Flemington Race 8 – 1200m – A.R. Creswick Series Final
1. Odyssey Moon: Hard to argue with the fact that he is now finally low flying and loves the straight track at Flemington. Most importantly, he is wanting the sting out and finally getting it. Two very strong runs in a row.. including a Open class win last start… back to 3YO grade… very hard to beat.
2. Prince of Brooklyn: Huge run from last to just get nosed out of the win at Moonee Valley first up. Looks to have found the form we saw as a very talented 2YO. The wetter the track the better for this bloke. Very well suited and looks a key threat.
3. We’re Sure: Untapped potential. Very easy win first up when slow away but still won well in a very hot time. Huge step up in class is the only real issue but has measured up in 3YO grade in the past. No dramas with track condition. First time down straight.
4. Sooboog: The boogey man… ran so well in a 3Y-Group2 and then two runs since been less than great. Best seen on dryer. Unders for mine.
5. Nat’s The Boss: Ran well enough last few runs. Poorly in at weights from last start though. Has to improve.
6. Lord Von Costa: Well backed today after a strong run behind Speith which has him well in here. Up to 1200m should be ideal… hasn’t won outside of a maiden the issue.
7. Tango Rock: 3YO winner two back over further. Well beaten last start over 1500m on heavy failing to handle the track. Back to 1200m questionable.
8. Chase The Horizon: Every chance and well beaten last start. Hard to suggest on what we have seen to date.
9. Well Sighted: Looked a nice type last prep. Fairly beaten all runs this prep.
10. Crystal Dreamer: CL1 winner and good 3YB-70 winner but then well beaten and no reason behind it that last start run. Win wouldn’t shock here at all on previous runs.
11. El Dorado Mine: Maiden only winner. No thanks.
12. I Boogi: Missed the start by a huge amount and was a moral beaten. Obviously a good type but really even in this grade?
13. Sound Works: Going through the grades slowly. Big step up in class here. Wants it wetter.
14. Little Indian: Well beaten last start. Take on.
Comments: Another race on the card where there are several chances to win the race on paper, but two clear standouts on my ratings.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10
Strategy: Odyssey Moon for 1 unit @ $3.90. Prince of Brooklyn for 0.5 units @ $8.00
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – Leilani Series Final
1. She’s Clean: Stable believe she is going really well and not far off a win. Strong 3rd behind Jacquinot Bay and back in class here. Good barrier.
2. Vibrant Rouge: Good run considering the position she got to in running last start. Up in class an issue but going well.
3. A Lotta Love: Strong win last start flying home. Up to 1400m should be ideal and looks suited by all factors.
4. Forgeress: Good win two back. Dryer surface last start found a few too good. Needs to improve again.
5. Telopea: Every chance and found a few too good the last two starts. Has to improve again.
6. Nadeem Lass: Hasn’t been close all prep to a win. Hard to have.
7. Niminypiminy: Well beaten last start when well backed. Frustrating type and up against it here.
8. Sea Spray: Ran home well last start. Well weighted again and better suited back to Flemington. Big chance.
9. To Be Honest: Good horse on her day but never gone close in this class in the past. Not good enough first up.
10. Young Nicola: Well beaten first up in much easier. Struggle to suggest.
11. Belaruski: Couldn’t get a win in FMB-64 last start.
Comments: Tough one to finish the day. Sea Spray looks well over the correct odds and from the barrier will be well positioned to finish it off well and come over the top.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8
Strategy: Sea Spray for 0.5 units @ $19/$4.90 Each-Way
