Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on 8 August 2015. Moonee Valley was Death Valley last week with the rail on the new surface playing well and truly off. A big * goes on that track for the next race day there for mine, you shouldn’t have a rail perform that poorly on a new surface. We move to Flemington today where we have a ground with a little bit of give in it. Our favourite horse Charmed Harmony goes around, but there isn’t a chance I can bet into the horse today at the price. Henwood is the value in the race, but i’ll most likely just be watching. Our best bet of the day is very good value and i’ll be betting 1.3 units to place to 1 unit to win and expecting at least money back if we don’t get the win. Overall, this is a confident day all things considered for a Flemington card with four main standouts. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 – By The Grace Each-Way
Very keen on this horse today against this field. Will have every chance and i’ll be shocked if the horse misses and doesn’t get a place. Will be betting roughly 1 unit to win 1.3 units to place ratio so that if we only get the place, it’s still money back.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 9 – Iteration Each-Way
I have a large opinion of this horse and so does the Hayes stable. We got out money back + interest last start when our best running 2nd that day on the E/W and i think the horse can go one better with Dunn onboard controlling the race from out the front.
Melbourne Other Bet
Flemington Race 5 – Falago to win
Unlucky to miss being a Best Bet today, rates very well today at a very good price, just misses a 85% confidence rating as well. Two on-speed runners today will see the pace put on out front and set up the race to give Falago every chance to return to winning form.
Melbourne Value Bet
Flemington Race 4 – Yenhaab to place
Blinkers on today, ignore first two runs… up to suitable distance and will have every chance and no excuses today. If the horse is going to run well, it’s today and i think the $9+ (should get more on Betfair) is worth backing.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 8, 13
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 11, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1400m – Elizabeth Dunkley & Jason Lee Handicap
Gredington: Very disappointing last start at Caulfield when 2nd favourite, almost hard to believe that was his best? Have to forgive that run with a little more sting out of the ground today should run well.
Starsi: Out the front they didn’t set much of a pace at all last start over the 1400m at Caulfield when winning well. Much harder at Flemington today from wide barrier and only run on a wetter track was a fail (much wetter).
Gold Symphony: Ran well for 2nd to Jalan Jalan last start at course over 1200m. Really hit the line like a horse looking for 1200m and no issues with the track today at all. Will need a bit of luck and a good ride to not get caught 3-wide from the barrier.
Jacksay: Adelaide horse come over from the McEvoy stable after winning twice in 2YO company in a row on heavy and soft ground. The wetter the better.
Al Shameel: 2nd to Jacksay last start over in Adelaide. Have to improve past him today you would expect at the weights. Has ability.
Del Grappa: Just got the win first up at Pakenham in maiden company. This is much harder and unknown on the surface today compared to others up to this grade. Was a decent paying maiden.
Downhearted: Out the back at Geelong and ran on very well to score at big odds first up. Have to consider him a bit chance today on what we saw first up.
Red Alto: No luck first up at Caulfield when was doing his best work late and will appreciate the extra moisture in the ground today with a longer straight. Blinkers on big plus.
Bon Aurum: Failed to beat quite a few home first up then won well at Geelong beating an average bunch in a cheap maiden. Hard to see the big jump straight away.
Colonel Custer: Gawler maiden win last start on a heavy track, hard to see the transfer of form up in grade on dryer track just yet. Money will tell the story though and has been backed.
Most Wanted: Well backed first up runner today… have to be good to beat all these first run.
Dream on Monty: Hard to see him matching it fully with this lot even with the claim.
Comments: Open race to start the day. I’m happy to be sitting this one out and watching to get a feel for just how good quite a few of these will be.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Small bet on Red Alto and Downhearted.
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – Louis Polgar & Jason Vance Handicap
Extra Zero: Placed 12 of 14 runs last prep. Best clearly seen over further than this in the past and never won first up, but can run well today still.
Ihtsahymn: Likes to get out the back in his runs. Clearly found his best two preps back as a 3YO when running well in Listed and Group company over in WA. Last prep didn’t find his best until back over 2000m+. Couldn’t fully discount.
Desert Jeuney: Ran very well first up when a close 4th in similar grade down the 1100m straight. Last start was an average run but will improve significantly up to 1400m today. 1L 3rd to Trust in a Gust over 1600m in Group 1 last prep… hasn’t won since 2013… but going well enough to cause an upset.
Charmed Harmony: What else can we say about him? His best form and runs are seen on Good 4 to Soft 6 (Soft 5 is perfect) but finds his best when Katie Mallyon is riding. Sadler obviously knows what he is doing, but it’s certainly a concern the change of jockey today.
Dylan’s Promise: What the bloody hell do we make of this South African import? FM-GP2 winner over 2500m… last run was over 3000m… last win over 1900m and did run 2.5L 8th over 1450m last prep. Have to believe it wants further.
Happy as Hell: Never won first up or at track. Best runs over further than this and never won at this distance in the past.
Comments: The price on Charmed Harmony is simply too short today to be happy to back.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Charmed Harmony to win.
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – Melville Yates & Craig Dann Handicap
At The Weekend: Measured up down in Tasmania throughout her career to date and has won 4 from 5 at this distance in the past with a 1.8L 5th in FM-GP3 company. First up today and goes well first up, looks well weighted all things considered today.
Bet You She Rocks: First up found very little over 1200m. Back in class and up to 1400m is a bit better for her but would expect she needs a few more runs to measure up in this class today.
Letmedowngently: Best runs clearly over much further than this. Made her way through the grades and became a very good horse last prep.. but needs further.
Smokin’ Al: Very very very good win last start at Sale and two back run 3rd to Jessy Belle at course and distance in harder company was very strong. No real speed in the race today so don’t expect her to be out the back today from the barrier… hard to get past her!
Herstory: Very easy win last start at Flemington beating a decent bunch of horses in 3YOF class. Up to open grade today in MB-84 grade and looks well suited based on last run at the weights. Will be on speed again and be very hard to beat.
Leia: Going nicely this prep. 1L behind Smokin’ Al last start… barrier 1 today so if jumps well could be stalking the speed and every chance if good enough.
Northern Saint: Strong form lines last prep and looked to progress through the grades well. Ran well enough first up in F&M class weighted well but was no match. Has to improve today but up in distance should help.
Barley a Scent: Continues to run well and finally got the win last start at Bendigo. Magnus Slipper has come out and won since… has to improve but decent type.
Niminypiminy: Just missed her last two runs. Perfect barrier today if she jumps well for once. Meets Smokin’ Al 2kg better off today and Leia 1kg better off.
Comments: Very confusing race if i’m perfectly honest with you. Every single horse in this race has a chance of winning which is never a good sign when looking to bet. There isn’t much speed on paper, but that generally means something goes forward and nuts up front. HerStory does go up top pick. Smokin’ Al is under the correct odds but a big cance obviously… have NiminyPiminy a slightly better bet at weights and Leia a massive price on that form line. At The Weekend looks to be one at odds worth considering as well.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: HerStory to win. At The Weekend and Leia smaller bets (value in the race).
Flemington Race 4 – 1700m – Julie Aldridge & Cynthia Norton Handicap
Turner Bayou: Never placed first up in the past. Last prep ended with a strong win over 3200m… 1700m today… obviously has measured up over 2000m and 1700m isn’t too short, but clearly found best over further last prep.
Correggio: Found nothing two runs to date… best seen 2000m+ in the past. Hard to suggest on recent form.
Onpicalo: Looked to return to some form last start with a 2L 6th… wasn’t the best or worst run you will see over similar distance. Will be on speed today but never placed from 4 runs at track a concern. Track condition suits.
Vizhaka: Last win was at Bairnsdale! Two runs this prep and hasn’t exactly impressed. Needs to improve.
Abbasso: Very strong win last start at course and similar distance. Weighted fine today and expect to see him position just off the speed. Any rain helps. Would be more confident of his chances on a Soft 5 than Good 4 which is worth noting.
Tax Evader: Back to a heavy track to get a win last start at Geelong. Can run well today but does look a bit outclassed back on dryer ground today.
Shenzhou Steeds: Found very little first up on a heavy track over 1400m. Looking for 2000m+ to find his best but did run well 0.8L 3rd three preps back at course over 1800m.
Albonetti: Always needed the run first up and ran home nicely enough when never a chance out the back. Needs to improve again today but back in class and same weights is in well at the weights all things considered. Would love to see them sit more handy
By The Grace: Huge run last start at Flemington when out the back, blocked for a run and still ran a solid 6th. Look for an improved run again at weights today. Well in.
Yenhaab: Just simply ignore his first two runs this prep and rate on GB form. Blinkers on today should do the trick when he will sit on speed and have every chance if good enough. Looks a huge price.
Comments: Abbasso, Albonetti, By The Grace and Yenhaab are the four that stand out for me here. Yenhaab is a massive price and deserving of a spec bet at very least today. It’s no surprise to me that they are betting Abbasso as the favourite here, but if there is an upgrade to Good 4, he is definitely not the favourite in my books and the price currently bet is certainly not a price i could back at the weights. Albonetti is a slight bit of value but does need one more run for mine. By The Grace is the horse I want to be around today at hte prices.. in for a very good run today at the weights and will be hard to beat out as a best bet today.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: By The Grace Each-Way. Smaller bet on Yenhaab at big odds.
Flemington Race 5 – 2000m – Richard Beckmann & Mark Young Handicap
Commanding Time: Big weight today of 61kg. Will be on speed and pushing forward with Lightenuff. Has the ability if track is helping those on speed, but will need luck in running to beat all these home.
Falago: Every chance last start at Caulfield but Miss Rose De Lago was simply too good. Back to scene of the crime from two back, should get every chance today but 60kg does make it tricky to switch on.
Prizum: Hasn’t won since 2012. Ran quite well last two starts over 2500m and 2600m. Jump back to 2000m could do the trick if it’s an all out slog but not sure that will occur. Can run well.
Refulgent: On speed day when won last start from out the front at Caulfield in a race run 2.5 seconds slower than his previous race at Flemington, tells you he got all the favours on speed. Don’t expect to get that same luxury today.
Gingerboy: Barrier 1 last start at Caulfield but got back to 10th of 14 in running somehow. Barrier 9 so can’t see him getting a forward position… and that’s where he races best! Back in class but up in weight…. needs to improve to rate here.
Lightenuff: Shown nothing this prep. Can’t have.
Mutual Trust: Backed this bloke his first 5 runs then last start comes out and wins on a Friday on a Heavy 10.. always the way isn’t it. Back to 2000m and dryer track, struggle to suggest here.
Black Tomahawk: Just missed last start when 2nd to Bagman who has come out since and won well again. Open class down to this grade today and only up 4.5kg so well in at the weights. Tricky mapping from barrier 7 but should find himself midfield with every hope.
Hot Power: Improved run last start at Caulfield when flashed home from the back when it was all over. Up in distance a bonus and any rain will help on best recent runs. Can run well.
Heavy: Very poor ride last start at Caulfield when simply too far back.. flashed home unlucky. Smaller field today and barrier 3, there should be no excuses up from 3YO class to Bm-84 and back to 2000m off 54kg.
Comments: Yes, Refulgent won in Open class last start but had every favour to suit… won’t get that today. Falago was not disgraced last start, Miss Rose De Lago would be winning this race as well. Black Tomahawk has to be considered as well with Bagman’s two wins in a row in harder company while how do you look past the price on Heavy at the bottom of the weights today… but is 3YO company really the equivalent of these runners? The price says a lot really. My rule is simple, I won’t take a 3YO coming up into open class unless it’s a winner and Heavy’s profile is anything but that just yet having lost four in a row. Infact, just won 2 from 14 starts! I think we have to risk Black Tomahawk as well today based on the last start run being a large peak performance that doesn’t build into the other form this prep and i can’t see it being repeated. All roads point to Falago as the top pick here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Falago to win.
Flemington Race 6 – 1400m – Timothy Kelly & Kevin Viney Handicap
Del Prado: Good win at bendigo two runs back then failed last start on heavy has to be forgiven. Did win in this class and similar distance as said two back so has to be considered, but certainly a hard task with 61.5kg today!
Bel Seal: Continues to run well this prep but certainly doesn’t win out of turn with three seconds in a row and a third behind that. 60kg makes it tough back to dryer ground today, won’t be lacking fitness.
Grand Sai Wan: Ran well first up in much easier class on heavy. Last prep measured up in city grade over 1600m+ so should compete today but think he finds best over further in slightly weaker grade.
Cross of Gold: been going around on the synthetic the last few runs but hasn’t been able to match up at the grades. Really looks a throw at the stumps before a spell is considered.
Firehouse Rock: Seems to find his best runs early into his preps and proved that last prep with a close 3rd to ALpine Eagle and San Nicasio in his first two runs in 3Y-GP2 company. Never placed from 4 attempts at track but never runs badly here really either. Expect to be on speed and goes well at distance. Had the ultimate gear change (GELDING) as well which will help.
Marco Polo: Fish out of water! Very poor first run in VIC at Geelong last start… did win over in Adelaide in lesser company three back.. best seen on a firmer track than today.
Rainbow Storm: Never won first up at track or at distance in the past. Best seen over further. Think we just have to take him on here…. even if his first up run last prep was okay at distance.
So Does He: Easy win last start in much easier company at Horsham. Short turn around does look ideal and weighted okay. No reason why he can’t win this.
Bon Rocket: Found nothing last start. Very disappointing. Two previous runs were solid. Has to find his best to still beat these.
Cyclone Andy: Didn’t beat a classy field last start at Cranbourne but got the win. Much harder today.
Free of Doubt: Doesn’t win out of turn and on recent form this clearly isn’t his turn from the barrier.
Reach Out: Finished last prep with a run over 3000m. Needs further.
Liberty Island: 3YO grade up into open grade BM-78. Ran Raposo to 1.8L two runs back and then 4.3L 4th to Volcanic Ash last start. Barrier 1 should see them push forward on him but i’m not sure he has the speed to get further forward than midfield. Very hard to run past all of these from the run he will get.
Lord da Vinci: Will be out the back again today and need to run past a thousand horses to get the win. Hasn’t won in a long time due to pattern of racing and can’t see that changing today even up in distance.
This is the Show: Last four runs has clearly been outclassed. Happy to take him on here.
Spanish Love: On her day she can win this, but she doesn’t win often and is very hard to trust. Need to see a few runs in.
Bradman: Ran well last two runs but pattern sees him get back and won’t change today from horror barrier. Need luck to be in the finish.
Tee ‘n’ Tee: FMB-64 winner two back… failed last start on heavy an excuse but really hard to consider here.
Volontiers: A roughy from the clouds. Ran Volcanic Ash to 0.8L last start at Caulfield off bottom weight… but that was a leader biased day and was expected.
Comments: Two standouts for me here are So Does He and Firehouse Rock. Very happy to take on Liberty Island in this large field from that barrier today on my speedmap information.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 8, 13
Strategy: So Does He to win. Smaller bet Firehouse Rock
Flemington Race 7 – 1200m – Aurie’s Star Handicap
Trust in a Gust: One run last prep over 1200m for a 0.1L defeat to Red Bomber who proved to be a very handy type. Only one run at track in the past for a 2nd over 1600m… never been down the straight a huge concern giving the field 6kg today… but with 10 wins from 18 starts the price on offer today looks quite okay especially having only missed a place twice in 18 starts.
Le Bonsir: Goes okay enough first up… 7 starts at track for 0 wins but 5 places… always seems to find a few too good and this is a hard task first up when this isn’t his best track clearly.
Shiraz: Going from strength to strength with two wins in a row to kick off this prep both on heavy… looks a crazy price today considering the drop back to dryer tracks against this lot first time down the straight?
Decircles: Old mate loves to run a good race when not expected at Flemington and has won in past down the straight. Last two starts been off the speed and never a chance really. Expect him to be on speed with 54kg and giving a sight!
Pago Rock: Really liked his run last start when 2nd to Charmed Harmony at course over 1400m. This will have sharpened him up for a strong 1200m today with just 54kg, he looks well in when you consider the runs behind Lumosty middle of the prep.
Play Master: Continues to go from strength to strength this prep and last start sat off them and hit the line hard to win a fastly run 1200m race. Best seen when speed on, not so sure it will be today though.
Lonrockstar: Weighted nicely today… three runs at course and similar distance and never far off with a win in between. Will be having last shot at them.
Nadeem Lass: Doesn’t win out of turn. Goes well down the straight but seems to find one too good always. Can’t see the win today at weights on last two runs.
Smackdown: Two wins from two starts last prep in easier grade than this. Goes well down the straight, don’t forget it… ran 1.8L 5th to Tiger Tees in Group 3 two preps back… 3 wins 2 places from 5 first up runs… has the ratings to measure up.
Living On a Prayer: Half-way there! Two runs to date and only fair at best. Had to show a lot more last start to suggest a win here.
Zebrinz: Finished last prep with 3 wins in a row over much further. Never won first up, at course or at distance.
Audino: Goes well enough at track… best runs clearly seem later into preps but first up wasn’t terrible…
Comments: Start of by saying the price being bet for Shiraz is just stupid. Yes, it can win, yes there is no chance i’ll be taking that price and i’ll be laying it on Betfair. This is a horse that has proved itself at BM-75 to BM-90 grade. Today first time ever down the straight faces a Group 1 winner in Trust in a Gust, last start Listed winner at course and distance Play Master… Decircles last win course and distance Group 3, Pago Rock last win 1100m Caulfield Open grade, Le Bonsir last win Listed 1200m Moonee Valley… Smackdown last win Open 1200m.. Lonrockstar last win 1100m Flemington Open class. Now you know why we are laughing at the Shiraz price, let’s talk about who is winning it. Trust in a Gust can’t be ignored but giving the whole field 6kg you have to feel this is a massive test first up and first time ever down the straight… will be allowed to control tempo i feel out front which could play a big part in how he finishes off the race. Le Bonsir at the weights measures up as a key threat if he finds his best again today. Pago Rock is going well enough and the step back to 1200m today could just do the trick. Smackdown has the ability on last two preps to make the step up today at the weights while Lonrockstar has been consistent running down the straight all prep.. finally if the pace is on, Play Master can win here.
Confidence (85% on the lay of Shiraz, 70 on Trust in a Gust to win)
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9
Strategy: LAY Shiraz to win. Trust in a Gust is the top pick for those looking to BACK a horse.
Flemington Race 8 – 1000m – Nathan O’Mara & Terry Jolley Handicap
Churchill Dancer: First up today, Hayes stable talked highly of how well he is going at home and expect a big run today. Handles the straight and has won here in the past. Looks suited! Big price.
Tansy: Close but just missed last start at course and distance. Back in class as well today, looks well weighted all things considered. One of the top chances.
Klishina: Three runs this prep and not disgraced in any run. 5th in WFA-G3 last start when out the back and running on. Two and three runs back 3rd/4th in open grade at course and distances. Needs to find best but can win this!
Sir Berus: Looks well out of place in this field for mine today over 1000m. Take on first up.
Wonderbolt: Back to dryer ground today will that do the trick? Running well enough on thwe wet tracks…
Corsica Lad: Loves a short distance track… looked like he could be winning last start but lacked the final turn of foot required in easier grade at Caulfield.
Orient Line: Returns today.. best runs last prep were over the 1400m distance when even won at course beating a talented runner in Hi World. 1000m may just be a tad sharp today first up.
I Am the General: Hit the line well behind Supido last start. Previous run also good behind Tansy. Has to improve but Does get a few KGs on Tansy for two back run when blocked for a run.
Sunday Escape: Continues to run consistently well this prep. Hardest test for a while today and never won in class… first time down straight.
Antarctic Missile: Missed last start at Bendigo disappointingly. Pinky missed a win mid-week also since. Won previously down the straight.
Sentfromthestars: Very interesting runner today. Goes well enough at distance and won 2/2 first up in the past. Has the ratings to measure up.
Just for Starters: Ran well enough beating Corsica Lad last start at Caulfield but this is another level again today. Has to improve.
Beleeup: Massive price winner two preps back at course over 1100m. Found nothing last prep when last in 8 horse race. Hard to suggest but hard to ignore obviously.
Earthly Tiger: Ignore last start that ended last prep when lame… but on previous runs struggle to suggest here.
Comments: Three horse play here for me – think the market has the prices wrong on a few runners and happy to take the value of Churchill Dancer, Tansy and Klishina here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 11, 15
Strategy: Churchill Dancer, Tansy and Klishina to win… all equal stakes.
Flemington Race 9 – 2000m – Leanne Sanderson & Denis Hansen Handicap
Miss Mossman: Very disappointing first up run in Australia when fell out of it very fast! Up to 2000m obviously help and so will a little more sting out, but struggle to suggest based on that first up run.
Artistic Lass: Won two of last three in similar distances… did alot wrong last start costing her the win. Back to dryer ground not exactly ideal to find her best, but can still obviously handle and run well.
First Bloom: Similar class of race today and up to 2000m which should very much suit her today coming off a good win at Moonee Valley last start. Looks very well in here.
Hula Lua: Hard horse to catch! Ran nicely behind Every Faith first up then failed last two starts including behind First BLoom last start. Not sure what to make of her.
Lilly Dazzler: Obviously a very good win last start at Flemington jumping out of the ground to beat Iteration. Can run well again today based on that run.
Iteration: Disappointing 2nd last start at Flemington but the extra 200m today will obviously help. Barrier gives her every chance once again today and Dunn onboard for a more timed run than last start. Expect her to be very hard to beat and the stable are confident.
No Excuses Bec: Blocked for runs last start and had excuses (hehe). Has to find her best to measure up here.
Melaleuca: Blocked for runs and just forget she went around last start. Poorly weighted today though.
Boogielicious: Wouldn’t be taking the Pakenham and Sale form as holding up here today. Loves to not win the close ones this prep. Consistent type.
Kepy Woman: Ran home nicely enough last start when 3rd to Lilly dazzler and Iteration. Can run well again with extra 200m suiting.
Manageress: More forward last start at Caulfield but still no match for Refulgent with the slow pace set. Is 2000m the horses distance or does it need a step back to 1600m? Jury is out for me and if the horse is suited in open class as well as 3YO class. Tough race to win this!
Musica Royale: Every chance last two runs. Happy to take her on here today.
Avenue of Glory: Looks to be one to take on today if gets a run.
Comments: They are giving us a good price again today on Iteration and i can’t see a reason to jump off. Manageress is the false favourite for mine today in this. First Bloom looks the key threat.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12
Strategy: Iteration E/W
