Welcome to The Profits form guide for 7 May 2016 at Flemington. The Bool is over and done with for another year and we came out the other end ahead which is always good! Onto Flemington today and also looking over at Morphetville, there are a number of strong races to bet into and i’m seeing value runners everywhere. No Quaddie at Flemington as there are two unpredictable races I simply can’t preview and get correct. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 – Supido for 4 units @ $1.70 to win.
Other Best Bets
Flemington Race 2 – Zabisco 1.5 units @ $4.50 to win
Flemington Race 8 – Mr Backchat for 1 unit @ $18. Whistlebaby for 1 unit @ $8.50
Best Value Bets
Flemington Race 4 – Auld Burns for 0.25 units @ $101/$17
Morphetville Race 7 – Miss Seton Sands for 0.5 units @ $41/$12 Each-Way
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 2 – 1800m – @FlemingtonVRC HCP
1. Second Bullet: Goes well at this track and first up form is decent enough. Never missed a place in this class. Good barrier and small field. Only issue is if this is a touch too short for his best, but I don’t think it is.
3. Zabisco: Strong return to form last start with a more than brave run 3rd to Turnitaround who has since won. Going the right way and looks suited at track and distance if finds his best here.
5. Good Value: A few poor runs in a row, bounced back the last two starts with solid efforts failing 2L short both times. Going the right way about things but has to improve again.
6. Cooldini: Over the jumps and further last prep to find his very best. Hard to see the win here off the first up run.
7. Imperial Lass: Won first and second up last prep including a F&M race. Best seen 2000-2400m. Needs to find alot more than first up.
8. 51kg. Rib Eye: Huge step up in class. Failed to win first up as favourite but was a nice enough run.
Comments: I really liked what I saw from Zabisco last start as a run heading into this today. It was a solid run from a back position to come home strongly off a strong tempo spotting the winner 4L coming into the straight. Even if they crawl up front, Zabisco has the turn of foot over these distances to come home strongly as well which is an added bonus. Back Weir Drink Beer.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Zabisco 1.5 units @ $4.50
Flemington Race 3 – 1200m – VRC Betty Cummings
1. Reemah: Close 2nd to Pride of Dubai in Group 1 class as a 2YO. Since then won a Maiden and failed to place in 4 other races. Returns from a really long spell. Stable believes the market has her wrong and suggest she is a much better chance than it suggests. 2kg claim obviously helps. Get back run on.
2. Grey Street: Tough run last start when having pretty much every chance and couldn’t match it with a few good types. Failed to fire down the straight in the past a big worry today.
3. Fleur Fatale: Very solid run first up this prep with a close 2nd to Miss Vista. Looks to have promise and very well suited to extra distance.
4. Dance With Fontein: Jumped poorly last start and ran home well enough as good be expected for 4th. Can improve up to 1200m.
5. Conspicuous Maid: Maiden winner. Nice run 2nd to Heatherly two back and then up to BM-64 open grade last start a close 2nd. Back to 3FB-78 grade, certainly well in and can match motors with them.
6. Rebound: Maiden winner in nice time over 1300m. Missed the start a bit last start which could have cost her the race. This is much harder though.
8. Russian Empress: 6L winner in a maiden. Failed to fire the two runs after that though. Hard to rate.
9. Stratum Magic: FM-Maiden winner last start. Times were only average.
10. Lady Slevoir: 1400m winner in a maiden back to 1200m when couldn’t win 1200m maidens. Has to improve.
11. Euston Road: Not the worst going around but struggle to suggest a win based on last start 3rd.
12. Smokin’ Valentina: Nice enough in at the weights. had every possible last start and seems suited better by 1000m than 1200m on past runs.
Comments: Reemah is the class runner in the race and represents great value having proven herself in Group 1 class previously. A few too short at the front of the market for what they have achived too date.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Reemah E/W
Flemington Race 4 – 2000m – VRC EFI Condovrakis
1. Auld Burns: Could just be here for fitness between jumps races, but his runs this prep over the flat in similar grades have been really solid with a close 2nd three runs back over 1950m in higher BM rated race. Don’t simply dismiss.
2. Firehouse Rock: Continues to run as expected in similar grade races. Well back in grade here but even this looks a touch beyond him on what i’ve seen to date.
3. My Bantry Bay: Very nice run last start at Caulfield when 2nd to Raw Impulse. Up to 2000m no disadvantage and will be suited by the extra long straight just like back at home.
5. Houdini The Great: Nice interrupted run last start when 4th behidn Raw Impulse and My Bantry Bay. Going the right way this prep but keeps going up in grade. Never runs a bad race.
6. Sir Prospector: 3 length win in a nice 20 horse field over at Leapardstown over 2400m to finish last prep. Wasn’t even ridden out the final 25m, that’s how good the win was and the horse was backed in on the day big time. 2000m looks a more than suitable distance for him first up today and should have more than trained on, hard to beat.
7. The Bandit: Japanese import. Won two back at Sandown and last start went around favourite when never a chance from so far back. 2000m but going back from barrier 4.
8. Zayak: Hasn’t won all prep. Keeps running well but not getting the chooclates. Much harder today than last few starts. Not one to have for mine.
9. Bring Back: Last start 0.1L winner at BM-70 at Ararat. Massive improvement needed on best still.
10. Black Stardom: 4 runs 0 places in this class in the past. Last win was in a BM-64 this prep. Has to improve onwards and upwards to place.
12. The Terricks: Doesn’t win out of turn. Did win first up but hard to see a win here.
13. Spur On Gold: First decent run for a while last start in easier class. Has to improve again to measure up.
14. Yenhaab: Hasn’t won since 2014. Never measured up to this grade. A long time between wins.
Comments: I couldn’t take the price about My Bantry Bay today, or the price for The Bandit from the back. Even the price for Sir Prospector has no value first up either. I’m really keen on Auld Burns to run a blinder out the front at big odds. His last run on the flat was over 1950m when running 2nd in a BM-82, harder class than this. He will get the lead and he will be able to run it as he wants.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Auld Burns for 0.25 units @ $101/$17
Flemington Race 5 – 1000m – TAB/ATA Women Trainers Handicap
1. Admiral: Hasn’t won first up the last two preps. Generally speaking they continue to start this horse in the hardest race they can find it seems. Best runs have been 1200-1600m in the past… not convinced over the 1000m personally in this class at the weights.
2. Le Bonsir: 8 runs for 0 wins at this track. 2 wins from 8 first up in the past and hasn’t won first up the past 3 preps. His very best has been seen over this distance though but at Moonee Valley.
3. Hard Romp: Always runs well over the distance and has a very good record at this track, having won twice down the straight and placed 3 more times. Beat Ball of Muscle last prep down the straight.
5. Beau Rada: Continues to run well this prep. Got a win three back and just missed two back. No disgrace last start 6th either.
6. Bullpit: Another who continues tor un well this prep and get wins every 2-3 runs. Going well.
7. Supido: The horse to beat today. First up win was very good. Finds himself up in class but down to 54kg from 60kg last start when ran a sub 1.09.
8. Illustrious Lad: Had his chance to beat Supdio last start but was clearly beaten on the day.. 2kg worse off.
9. Nozomi: Freedman Stable runner. Best run last prep was over 2500m. Not 1000m.
10. Klishina: Continues to run well over these distances. Never won at track though. Has to improve to measure up in this class.
11. Zupacharged: Looked a good type last prep but just didn’t continue to improve.. hasn’t won this prep.
12. Solar Duchess: First time down the straight. Place at best.
13. Face Forward: Horrible first up. Take on even though runs well down the straight.
Comments: Supido is the real deal and the $1.70 best around currently is more than good enough for me to be having a nice strong play here. I wouldn’t bet anything below $1.65 though which is worth remembering.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Supido for 4 units @ $1.70 to win.
Flemington Race 7 – 2800m – Singapore Turf Club Trophy
2. De Little Engine: Improved run second up when 3L off the win over 2000m. Step up to 2800m key here with a small field. Expect him to have every chance today and looks well suited.
3. Like A Carousel: Horrible all prep. Hard to suggest here.
4. Lucky Lucky Lucky: Two strong runs in a row suggest he is on the right path. Good jockey booking today and maps well from barrier 4. Hasn’t won in a long time the only issue.
5. Angelology: Very strong win two back over 1800m and then went on to dominate a hurdle after that. 2800m the horse is more than well suited.. issue is never measured up to this level in the past. I think he is flying though.
6. High Church: The obvious horse to beat. Two wins in a row before finding a few too good last start at course over 2530. Step up to 2800m no issues but has to measure up to this class.
7. Pop ‘N’ Scotch: Found nothing all three urns this prep. A few weeks between runs. Never measured up to this class.
9. Paradanza: Every chance and well beaten last start. Hard to see the improvement on runs to date in this class.
10. Oerter: Hasn’t measured up to this level of class ever with 3 runs for 0 places. Hasn’t won in a very long time (2014).
12. Barwon: BM-64 win last start. Huge step up in class and I doubt it will happen.
13. Kawabata: Not the worst runner based on two back run, but clearly has to improve to place.
Comments: Not many chances here makes it a fairly decent market to bet into. De Little Engine is the top pick.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: De Little Engine to win.
Flemington Race 8 – 1400m – Chairman’s Club
1. Del Prado: Goes back from the good barrier as always. First up run wasn’t terrible either over the unsuitable 1200m. Up to 1400m looks much better suited. Runs in past at this track have resulted in strong runs and a win.
2. Mr Backchat: Goes well at this class. Been up a long time this prep. Very average run last start. Previous runs more than good enough to run well here. Will be going forward.
3. Cloudscape: Very best runs overseas have been 2000m+. Have to take him on here based on distance alone.
4. Whistle Baby: Going well this prep in similar or better company. Well back in class here to BM-90 over this course and distance. Two back ran 2nd in FM-GP3 class at course and distance. Maps nicely enough.
5. Chivalry: Old mate Chivalry for the new Stable. Expect a much better run up to 1400m but even so find it hard to suggest he can win this. Needs the run.
6. The New Boy: Big win over the distance last start at Caulfield on a day when it suited. Going well and looks the main leader today.
7. Here to There: Had every chance on speed last start when found The New Boy far too good. Hard to have.
8. Running Bull: Looked a good horse two preps back but failed to show that class this prep or even last prep. Take him on.
9. Staviva: Thought he was a very good eye-catching 4th last start at Flemington. Up in distance an advantage again here. Can win.
10. Dig A Pony: Always runs well but best is on wetter than this. Has the ability.
11. Duibio: Looked the real deal down the straight opening this prep but gone backwards since. Up in distance a disadvantage for me. Barrier helps.
12. Scherzoso: First up for 6 months. Best runs over further.
13. Big Buddie: Old mate looks outclassed, just missed last start!
Comments: Surprised by the price being bet for Mr Backchat today in this race. Won two back at Oakbank and started $6 2nd favourite in a much harder race than this last start. Top pick on value but Whistle Baby would be the top pick in the race to win and is also overs.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Mr Backchat for 1 unit @ $18. Whistlebaby for 1 unit @ $8.50.
Morphetville Race 7 – 1200m – Robert Sangster Stakes
1. Griante: Drawn well in barrier 3.. G1 win in the Galaxy two runs back. Expect the track to be wetter than last start when well beaten at Randwick in G2 company. Has to find her very best to measure up. Obviously a good type.
2. Miss Promiscuity: Continues to run well this prep with two wins in a row. Has the ability to improve again but obviously a bad draw will make it tough to get the right spot in run. The dryer the better.
3. Sheidel: Just got the win over Girl Guide last start at Caulfield. Girl Guide failed since. Up in distance and weight here, but a nice barrier should help her chances. Will go forward and try lead them all the way.
4. Precious Gem: Continues to run well in city class but best runs have been over 1400m not 1200m recently. Does go well over this distance but best over further. I have to take on.
5. Wawail: Stable saved her for this. Never won in Group class before and this is obviously a step up again. Has to improve.
6. Sultry Feeling: Nice win two back at Rosehill in Group 3 class. Too far back last start at Randwick when 7th. Has to improve again to measure up. Barriers okay.
7. Pittsburgh Flyer: Massive disappointment last start at Cualfield. Can’t trust on last two runs.
8. Tycoon Tara: Saved for this when entered at the bool. Never measured up to this class in the past but has placed in similar.
9. Sabatini: Mares grade 2nd last start when having every possible chance. Goes well at this grade in the past but has to find very best again.
10. Tuscan Sling: WFA-G3 fav last start but well beaten. Has to improve to measure up. Good barrier.
11. Scarlet Billows: Very strong win last start at Caulfield. Win rates well but back to 1200m not sure it’s the 100% best idea.
12. I Love It: FM-GP3 winner last start. Beaten in similar previous run. Massive improvement needed on those runs for mine. Is Group 1 placed.
13. Miss Seton Sands: Just ignore the last start run at Sandown where ran well below expectations and rate on previous run. Very best runs this prep have been on speed and expect from barrier 4 that they will be more aggressive with her out of the gates to get a good position. Rates well, looks overs. Group 1 class 1L 2nd on record.
14. Vezalay: Not the worst runs this prep but continues to find a few too good. Horrible barrier.
15. Runway Star: One run last prep was horrible. First up won in Listed grade and disappointing last start. Can improve.
16. Private Secretary: Always flashes home and just finds a way not to win. This has been the target all along. Barrier hurts.
17. Badawiya: Well beaten last start in FM-GP1 class. Previous run was average at best. Hard to see in open grade.
18. Don’t Doubt Mamma: Stole the win last start at Morphetville. Going through the grades. Best will be over further.
19. Petits Filous: Massive disappointment last start at Randwick. Was outclassed. Goes okay from the barrier. Has to improve and find very best.
20. Tempt Me Not: Strong win from on speed last start at Randwick, stealing the win. Can run well against but barrier hurts.
21. Super Cash: Every chance last start at Morphetville. Very best can win good race at Flemington but not this.
22. Jalan Jalan: Just missed when 2nd to Miss Promiscuity last start. Barrier only fair. Has to improve to run well.
23. Secretmensbusiness: Not in this class.
Comments: The price on offer for Miss Seton Sands is insane today. This is a horse that is proven on times. We just forgive last start and she measures up here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Miss Seton Sands for 0.5 units @ $41/$12 Each-Way
