Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on the 4 October 2015. Yesterday could have been anything, but a few noses were the difference between a great day and a just good day. Our Best Bet in Melbourne was out over $5s and was nosed out of the win while Terravista was our best up North and got a win for us. No Quaddies but did land some okay odds. Onwards and upwarsd until tomorrow! As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 – Foundry to win
Strong run 0.5L 3rd to Silverball last start at Rosehill. Had the time and prep to train very well in-between races. Looks reall in and a great price.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 – Rising Romance E/W
Super runs to date this prep. Looks to be well weighted to go one better today and great price being offered.
Melbourne Best E/W
Flemington Race 2 – Well Sighted E/W
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 10, 16
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 7, 9, 11, 16
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 10, 12, 15, 17, 18
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – Maribyong Trial Stakes
As a rule, i will never tip or bet into a race where the form just isn’t established, especially when we haven’t seen some of the horses on the course.
Confidence 0%
Strategy: Sit it out
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – Poseidon Stakes
1. Stoker: Stuck on strongly but did think he had every possible chance last start at Caulfield. First time at Flemington and up in distance a throw at the stumps.
2. Top Me Up: He won with ease last start in maiden company at Geelong and looked to appreciate the extra distance as we were hoping. Maps as clear leader.
3. One for One: Gone through the grades this prep measuring up, but this is the next step and back to 1400m today probably suits. Has to improve to measure up to VIC best.
4. Iceflow: 5 length maiden win last start a bit of a surprise considering he was beaten 16L, 11L and 7.5L the three runs before that. Have to respect.
5. Mr Optimistic: Found very little first up at Pakenham. Prefer others here.
6. Well Sighted: Strong run home late last start at Caulfield 4th to Bassett. Form race and has turned out well since form wise.
7. Flying Light: Maiden winner first up only just as a short priced favourite. Ran well last prep at course over 1600m.
8. Faatinah: Maiden winner beaten by Mr Individual first up.. up to 1400m looks ideal and stable are keen on him.
10. Deadly Shadow: Couldn’t win a maiden.
11. Dynamic Day: Won a strong 2YO race at course and distance last prep… but first up run showed nothing.
Comments: Several good types here but Well Sighted the stand out on form.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Well Sighted to win.
Flemington Race 3 – 1200m – Gilgai Stakes
1. Chautauqua: Huge win last start. Goes well at course and distance. Should simply just win.
2. Delectation: Last in a field of 6 first up. Back to firmer track should suit but certainly isn’t up to this grade of winning.
3. Charlie Boy: Super run first up behind Fell Swoop. Will run well again today but won’t be beating home Chautauqua. Looks a good place price.
4. Churchill Dancer: Group 2 winner last start at course and distance. Going from strength to strength this campaign, but has to improve again to measure up.
5. Thermal Current: Every chance last start at Caulfield but well beaten. Others preferred.
6. Knoydart: Quality horse at his best an ran a 0.8L 2nd in WFA-G1 company last prep, but quality wise this is a step up.
7. We’re Gonna Rock: Still running at Caulfield from last week, will finish close to last.
8. Royal Rapture: Open class horse down in tassy. First up run wasn’t bad blocked for runs.
9. Earthly Tiger: BM-60 winner… yeah no.
10. Scarlet Billows: Not this class.
Comments: Obviously Chautauqua will win. You are looking for a place bet here and the four options are Delectation, Charlie boy, Churchill Dancer and Knoydart. For mine, Charlie Boy is proven at course and distance in the past and his first up run was impressive to my eye… down in weight today looks well in.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Charlie Boy to place.
Flemington Race 4 – 1800m – UCI Stakes
1. Celtic Tiger: Strong win last start in Adelaide in this class and similar distance. Horrible barrier today the main issue.
2. Kentucky Flyer: Too far back last start at Caulfield but finished off nicely. Won two back over slightly shorter on speed. Clearly has ability.. but barrier is rough also.
3. Ayers Rock: Just missed last start over in Adelaide. Won well in maiden class three back. Maps on speed.
4. Scadden’s Run: R-58 winner and then ran 3rd in a 3YO race… not sure how good it was then if he could make that jump!
5. Extra Choice: Disappointing run last start at Caulfield after two wins in a row. Has to improve.
6. Etymology: Proved himself a good type the last two runs and has the scope to improve again today up in class again.
7. Red Alto: Big jump in class last start and didn’t measure up very well. Well up in distance should suit but does need to improve.
8. Alkaashef: Maiden only winner, hasn’t gone close this prep over 1200 or 1400m. Can’t suggest on two runs to date.
9. Tivaci: Did alot wrong last start at Pakenham when 2nd. Has scope for massive improvement and bred to get the distance.
10. More Than Perfect: Could be a forgive run last start as was vetted at the barriers before last start. Looked good run two back.
11. Pay Up Bro: Strong form coming into this. Too far back last start finished off well enough to suggest he can run well again today.
12. Iron Boss: Easy Maiden win last start at Geelong. Needs to make the next step today to be going around in the Guineas next week.
13. Invincible Knight: Two runs this prep both poor. Hard to have.
14. Colosseum King: Strong win first up in a good time in maiden class. Will measure up.
15. Overstay: First two runs on prep well beaten. Last start well back in class got a easy win.
16. Zapurbly: Well beaten last start at Caulfield in a classy race. Barrier today could see her settle further forward.
17. Assertive Star: Surprised to see him not get a start… but he hasn’t won ar ace yet. One of the better finishes last start behind Tarzino.
18. Deputy Dan: Couldn’t win a maiden yet!
Comments: This race is a bit of a crap shout for mine. Yes, there are some good horses, but expect a surprise to be thrown up.
Confidence 40%
Strategy: Colosseum King Each-Way
Flemington Race 5 – 1600m – Edward Manifold Stakes
1. My Poppette: Wide barrier. Failed to get close to them from the back last start at Caulfield and well beaten over 1100m. Shown ability last prep to win this.
2. Air Apparent: Only won by 1 length last start in a FM-Maiden as a $1.30 favourite. Well beaten two back over this distance in easier company. Hard to have for mine.
3. The Grey Flash: First up well beaten at course over shorter distance. Won a 2YO-G3 well two back last prep in Adelaide.
4. Don’t Doubt Mamma: Very strong win last start at caulfield over 1400m. Step up to 1600m looks very ideal today and barrier 5 gives her a perfect run. Every chance today!
5. Pearl Star: Led last start at Caulfield surprisingly and the times set weren’t break neck speeds. Has ability but not on speed.
6. Bengal Cat: Proved her worth last prep at course winning over 1400m in top level and then a strong 4th over 1600m. Barrier today should give her an easier run first up and looks well suited.
7. Sailing By: Went close from out the front last start at Caulfield and run down by a good type. Continues to improve each run in this prep.
8. Lazumba: Safe to say this is one we want to take on based on first two runs this prep.
9. Badawiya: 7 length winner in her maiden three back. Last start won nicely enough at Pakenham. Has to improve.
10. Parallel Lines: Went okay in a 2YO class in easier races this prep but failed to make the grade last start. Not for me.
11. Sacred Eye: Huge run last start at Caulfield. Looks a very good horse. Barrier could do her in trapped on the rail.
12. Born Magic: Solid enough run last start finishing 2L off them, but no match for the best of them. No thanks.
13. Thames Court: Huge run last start when doing ALOT wrong.
14. Dulverton: Big maiden win last start. Looks to have ability.
15. Beachley: Couldn’t win a maiden.
16. Meru: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Comments: Wide open race. Don’t Doubt Mamma comes into this with the best form lines from this prep and is hard to bet around while Sacred Eye showed the potential also. Thames Court the untapped potential and maps to have every chance out the front… but not sure i can take her here.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Don’t Doubt Mamma to win. Also bet Sacred Eye.
Flemington Race 6 – 2500m – The Bart Cummings
1. Our Ivanhowe: First run back looked to be a good run. Needs to find much more today to measure up and off 60kg is up against it, but he is a Group 1 winner in Germany for a reason over this distance.
2. Precedence: Old mate… two runs this prep shown very little for mine. Not here at weights.
3. Hawkspur: One win in the last 4 years or so, doesn’t win out of turn and hasn’t measured up over this distance in a long time.
4. Crafty Cruiser: Consistent type but this is a step above what he is measuring up in.
5. Foundry: Ran quite well last start at Rosehill behind Silverball. Up to this distance looks very suitable today and the further the better. Take on at your own risk!
6. La Amistad: Flying at home. Hawkes very happy with how she is going. Best over further… best found over 3200m.
7. Let’s Make Adeal: Ran home okay last start. Suited by distance, but not sure she is good enough.
8. Like A Carousel: The further the better, but judging on first two runs this prep i’d rather be on others.
9. Sonntag: Not peaking. Needs more runs.
10. Bold Sniper: Very nice run last start at Caulfield. Will continue to improve further up in distance and could run well today heading towards a Caulfield Cup.
11. Cafe Society: Shown little the first two runs this prep. Struggle to suggest here.
12. Kapour: Ran well out the front last start at Caulfield in easier class than this over 2000m. Better over further but wants it wetter to measure up to these.
13. Maygrove: Can’t win on last start.
14. Renew: Can’t win on last start.
15. De Little Engine: Never won 2nd up in past, better later into preps and first up run only fair.
16. Wexford Town: Easy enough win over in Adelaide over 2500m. has to improve but good signs.
17. At First Sight: Good run last start but this is much harder.
18. Mister Impatience: Can’t see it here.
Comments: Our Ivanhowe, Foundry and Bold Sniper are the three standouts for mine. The issue with Our Ivanhowe is he will be out the back with the top weight, that’s just too much wrok to do for mine. I’m not convinced yet fully that Bold Sniper is top class i can’t take those short odds, which gives us Foundry as the top pick, ticks all the boxes from the barrier.
Confidence 80%
Quddie Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 10, 16
Strategy: Foundry to win.
Flemington Race 7 – 2000m – Turnbull Stakes
1. Happy Trails: Ran home nicely enough last start over the 1600m and more suited today over the 2000m being preped for the Melbourne Cup so still wants much further. Have to respect but top weight looks tough.
2. Protectionist: Expect a much improved run today back to dryer tracks.
3. Hartnell: Ignore first run when found a few better, but was no disgrace that day, was a good race. Barrier only issue.
4. Preferment: Good win last start beating Magic Hurricane who has since come out and won a Group 1 yesterday. Respect.
5. Volkstok’n’barrell: Well beaten last start at Caulfield but stayed on strongly. I feel he needs further to find his best.
6. Magicool: Not going well enough.
7. Dandino: Very strong run 8th last start at Caulfield from the back. Not often they stay on so well behind The Cleaner. Will have it easier today and have a long enough time to wind up down the straight.
8. Who Shot The Barman: Ran a nice race for 5th last start at Randwick behind Prefermeent. Has to improve on that run obviously.
9. Rising Romance: Huge run firs tup and then even better last start when got unlucky. Barrier not the best today but will get forward.
10. Weary: Continues to get too far back. Up in distance again today.. on the Two and Three back runs if gets a little further forward, could go okay.
11. Amralah: Strong win last start over in Adelaide from on speed. Looks the speed in the race today. Been well backed big time today. Has to measure up to this grade first to be considered a top class horse.
12. Extra Zero: Going very well by all reports. Goes well at track and distance.
13. Set Square: Every chance last start. Best over further.
14. Gust of Wind: Big run first up behind Fawkner missing by 1.8L. Up in distance suitable heading to much harder races.
15. Alpine Eagle: Never got close last start at course over 1600m when beaten by Fawkner and a five others. A few better runs out of that to follow for mine.
16. Royal Descent: Huge run 2nd to Kermadec last start at Randwick and Complacent form holds up. Looks well weighted.
Comments: Three standouts for me here with Rising Romance, Royal Descent and Dandino.
Confidence 75%
Quddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 7, 9, 11, 16
Strategy: Rising Romance E/W. Smaller bet Dandino.
Flemington Race 8 – 1400m – Blazer Stakes
1. Hazard: Rough barrier for this girl who is very talented. Two runs this prep very good but will need all the favours here.
2. Madam Gangster: Hard to explain last start when reared and slow out and didn’t go well. Did win well first up. Has ability and loves this track… barrier a shocker.
3. Tycoon Tara: Out the front today… first two runs not shown a great deal. Has to improve here but does have ability.
4. Girl Guide: Continues to run well without winning. Last start race was setup to swoopers and they got there.
5. Atlantis Dream: First up run out the back and blocked for runs.. finished off STRONGLY. Respct here can win.
6. Girl In Flight: Hasn’t won in two preps. Have to take on today.
7. Jessy Belle: Out hte back again last start and finished off well but just 3rd. Going well this prep and measures up.
8. Minnie Downs: Finished off last prep with a win. Not the best runner first up and never won at track.
9. Lucky Lago: Got a win in much easier company two back but then well beaten last start. Others preferred.
10. Manageress: Strong win last start at Flemington. Back in distance big time a sure issue.
11. Lilly Dazzler: One to not consider for mine, others preferred.
12. La Passe: Happy to take her on based on last three runs, tough task.
14. Cathy’s Mark: Couldn’t get within closer than 3L last start at Geelong. No thanks at distance.
15. Satya: Very strong run 6th last start at Caulfield. Can improve on that.
Comments: Wide open race, almost all the field can win. Satya top pick for me thinking can sit much closer to speed today from barrier.
Confidence 20%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 15
Strategy: Satya E/W
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – Paris Lane Stakes
1. Guest of Honour: Looking for further and a few more runs to peak. No thanks.
2. Turn Me Loose: Very good winner over in NZ last prep over 1600m as a 3YO. First up this prep in harder class was only fair. Has to improve on first up run.
6. Tall Ship: Ignore first up run and rate on best runs previous preps. Surprised they stay at 1400m. I can’t have but like the horse.
7. Scream Machine: Old mate doesn’t win out of turn. Struggle to suggest even though good 2nd up run.
8. Gamblin’ Guru: Over from Adelaide. Best over further last prep.
9. Setinum: Going okay but won’t measure up to this grade.
10. Yesterday’s Songs: Flying and unlucky not to get a run last week. Goes well at track and has good record.
11. Worthy Cause: Well beaten last start at Flemington coming down from QLD. Up to 1400m ideal but has to improve.
12. Ulmann: Fan home .nicely first up at Caulfield behind Fell Swoop. Good barrier today will get a nice run.
13. Trade Commissioner: Not in this.
14. Chivalry: Trialled well, but didn’t show us much last start if i’m honest. Not for me.
15. Lord Aspen: Talented type that measured up last prep. Good win first up also. Has ability.
17. October Date: Big go for this bloke today first up. Showed ability last prep but has to prove it in the city here.
18. Sir Andrew: Slashing run last start but barrier 20 will mean he sits too far back again today i’d say. Hard to be confident.
20. Orient Line: Couldn’t win last start at Pakenham. No thanks.
Comments: Hard way to finish the day. Turn Me Loose the class in the race at distance while Sir Andrew is certainly the value.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 10, 12, 15, 17, 18
Strategy: Turn Me Loose E/W.
