Welcome to The Profits form guide for 30 January 2016 at Flemington. It’s always an interesting day of racing coming off such a heavy downpour during the week in Melbourne, but with such strong drainage in-place at Flemington, we are still going to get a relatively dry track thankfully. A tough card on offer but I feel we can work our way through it with a few solid bets on the card and one big value runner i’m keen on. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 – Camdus for 3.5 units @ $2.50
Progressive type making his way through the grades. Normally don’t like taking the ‘shorts’ on these, but when i do, my strike rate is strong because it’s when they are weighted and map well to win. Camdus will sit on the speed where there is every chance there will be a slow to medium speed with just one natural leader who I believe isn’t wanting to break any land speed records. Weights perfect and will get lengths on the main threats outside the leader who I think this guy has lengths on.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 2 – Back Zupacharged for 1.25 units @ $4.40. Back Lonrockstar for 1.25 units @ $4.40.
Happy to take on the favourite today that has been backed into favourite based on the yard name, not form. Yes, the horse is up and coming, but Zupacharged and Lonrockstar have the points on the board for mine and at the weights look very well in. I’ll take both of them to win and settle for the combined lower price.
Other Bet
Flemington Race 1 – Star Stealer for 2 units @ $2.65 to Place
Two class runners in this race. The first is the $1.80 favourite Supido and the second is Star Stealer. While I think our runner is value to win at the prices, the place price is where the true long term winning bet is for mine. Very happy with the price.
Best Value Bet
Flemington Race 3 – Ginali for 0.75 units @ $35/$8.50 Each-Way
Haven’t landed a big value bet in a while, but I haven’t been as confident as this one in quite a while in terms of serious winning chances. Go check out Ginali’s last start run and note how the horse never got a run. Much better weighted today and much better suited at the distance. Expect the horse to have trained on and found another gear as well today. Can win.
*IMPORTANT – The scratching of Yellen means totes and corporates will only pay 2 places. I WANT 3 places for my place component so will be advising you to bet at Betfair*
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 7, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
1. Just a Bullet: Hard runner to catch. Won by 3.8L last prep in a BM-78 at Benalla from on speed as an example. D Oliver onboard.. never won first up but never runs poorly.
2. Mr Walker: Won last start at the bool in lesser class quite well. Never placed in this class previously though a big concern.. has to improve.
3. It’s A Shame Billy: Consistent runner who has run top 3 the last 7 runs. Good win two back at Bendigo and not disgraced at Geelong last start. Step up again though the issue.
4. Ready Sunshine: Adelaide runner back in class here today and has a good record in this class place wise. Last two starts showed more than enough to suggest can win. Issue is the barrier with his get back style.
5. Star Stealer: Just simply ignore the last start run when pulled up lame at course and distance when very well backed that day. Previous runs have been very good and step back to 1100m ideal… 3YO form is top class.
6. Supido: Easy maiden win then break.. back for one race as a 3YO and killed them from off the pace on a soft track down the straight… very nice type.
7. Ticket to Toorak: Going well enough this prep to suggest he can measure up to these standards. First time down the straight and just 1 from 14 at this class. Has to improve still but has ability.
8. Lord da Vinci: Every chance last start at Geelong first up. Stays at distance. Best runs last prep over further.
9. Chiavari: Nice enough type got the win at Cranbourne last start in easier grade. This is MUCH harder.
10. This is the Show: Couldn’t win a BM-64 last start. No thanks.
11. Good Offa: Struggle to suggest a place at best.
Comments: Two clear standouts here for me with the short priced favourite Supido and Star Stealer. I can’t have a bar of the price of Supido especially with Williams onboard, but Star Stealer to place looks a nice way to start the day at $2.65!
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Star Stealer for 2 units @ $2.65 to place.
Flemington Race 2
1. Lonrockstar: Has won an Open race down the straight here last prep. First two runs were no disgrace and he is going the right way this prep towards a win. Back in class ideal.
2. Decircles: Three runs this prep and hasn’t impressed me. Back to 1200m obviously ideal today, but can’t have on form.
3. Havana: Will be going forward. Strange form lines horse. Didn’t have to beat much last prep and this looks harder back to a distance that isn’t his best.
4. Zupacharged: Very average last start at course over 1400m when looked to have every chance. Back to 1200m which is obviously ideal and finds himself much better weighted than Lonrockstar
5. Mister Milton: His last start run at Caulfield was actually quite decent. Back to the Flemington straight and 54kg against this lot, I wouldn’t be shocked if today is his day! Looks a touch of overs for a non-winner.
6. Onerous: Decent enough win first up at Sandown but form out of that race hasn’t been ‘great’. Big jump in class but has ability.
7. Not A Happy Camper: Ran well enough on speed down the straight last start but well beaten that day. Can go okay but same weight well up in class.. 1 place from 8 starts at these classes.
Comments: Onerous looks well under the odds today… couldn’t have him based on just ‘potential’ and am very happy to take him on with the second and third favourites.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Zupacharged for 1.25 units @ $4.40. Back Lonrockstar for 1.25 units @ $4.40.
Flemington Race 3
1. Noela’s Choice: Ran quite well first up over 1200m and disappointed up to 1400m last start when didn’t find too much to run on with. Up to 1600m… best runs in past haven’t been here though. Nice barrier gives chances with a good spot in run.
2. Miss Softhands: Three runs and three strong wins. Continues to go through the grades… first time today 1600m and D Oliver keeps the ride. While I think she has talent, the handicapper first time up to 1600m has her today.
3. All Cerise: Two runs in a row up in Sydney and comes down here to find a dryer track. Will be on speed leading them around and loves a strong tempo. Win wouldn’t surprise or shock on last few runs.
4. Vital Importance: Had her chances first up in Melbourne over the 1400m. Up to 1600m looks ideal to go well here but does have to improve.
7. Tidy Prophet: Three runs this prep over in Adelaide and yet to break through for a win. Going the right way but big step up here which I couldn’t trust on last starts form.
8. Darcy’s Law: Won an average race last start at Sandown with just 6 runners. Going the right way but this is a huge step-up in class today and I can’t see her covering the gap.
9. Ginali: I actually thought her first up run was very good as a return over the 1400m. Similar class and gains weight on that field from last start, she looks the overs in a much smaller field with the speed expected to be on. Can win.
Comments: I think there are a number of key chances in this today, but I just keep looking at the price on offer for Ginali and i’m very keen to be snapping it up on the E/W.
*IMPORTANT – The scratching of Yellen means totes and corporates will only pay 2 places. I WANT 3 places for my place component so will be advising you to bet at Betfair*
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Ginali for 0.75 units @ $35/$8.50 Each-Way.
Flemington Race 4
1. Star Rolling: Every possible chance last start and well beaten fairly at course and distance. Doesn’t mind sting out of the ground.
2. Real Love: First run for D Weir over here this prep. Two runs last prep didn’t find much over here but went home and won a Group 3 first up… last start run over 2400m 3rd to Delicacy and covered ground.
3. Second Bullet: Destroyed them last start at Flemington from on speed. Not poorly weighted here either today and looks a massive chance to back it up again today.
4. Bass Strait: getting back up to 2000m today is surely not a bad thing. beat Real Love home last run in WA and is down 4kg on that run today while Real Love is up 1kg.
5. Eximius: Can’t fault his form with a 2nd to Admiral and then just missed against GeeGees GoldenGirl down in Tasmania. Only issue is the distance today with his best runs in the past over less ground.
6. Arianne: Ran well from on speed over 2400m last start at Sandown but got ran down late by Bajour who hasn’t impressed since. Has to improve to measure up here.
9. Tashbeeh: Good win over Radical last start at Caulfield. Up to 2000m certainly a stretch with best runs over lesser distances this prep. Good horse and okay in at the weights.
Comments: Second Bullet looks very hard to beat here but they have certainly found the horse in the betting. Tashbeeh is an up and comer who i think you just have to take on today at the price on a track i feel doesn’t suit the horse to find it’s very best. Bass Strait has the 1 week backup after never getting a run at them off a slow tempo last start at Caulfield and looks a big price here. I think Real Love will find an awkward spot off them today and isn’t very well weighted first up in Melbourne.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Second Bullet to win. Also back Bass Strait to win.
Flemington Race 5
1. Heatherly: We smashed her in the betting last start in a much easier race at Moonee Valley and got the win with ease. Back to down the straight where we know she enjoys her racing, she is obviously a key chance here today. Can win.
2. Magna Rossa: Looked a type on the up when winning well two back at course and similar distance. Last start an ignore run wide during race 3rd to Golden Spin.
3. Alaskan Rose: Best runs in the past over 1300-1400m so 1100m may prove a little sharp. Not sure she is top class either.
4. Claudia Jean: Lightly raced Hayes stable runner who we haven’t seen in nearly a year. Won down the straight very well it’s first ever run in a decent clip. Has ability.
5. Safariann: 2YO winner at Moonee Valley in first prep… first up run at Geelong this prep did a lot wrong and ran poorly. Has to improve here.
7. Alucinari: Godolphin runner down from Sydney. Close 2nd as a 2YO in a nice grade race at MV. Back to 3YO grade looks well suited.
8. Love Days: Short priced favourite last start at MV and ran wide during race and just missed. Not sure the form out of that race is going to figure out very well either.
9. Labdien: Average 3YO form.. big step up in class. Waller stable though and transferred down here for a reason.
10. Make Her Own Whey: Maiden winner last start… can’t see her measuring up straight away to this grade on previous runs.
12. Single Note: Every chance the last two runs at Caulfield when well beaten. Step up again here.
13. Lake Como: Decent enough maiden winner first up. Last start very well beaten at Sandown in easier.
14. Almighty Girl: Maiden winner last start at Mornington. Times looked okay to be honest.. but this is a very good race.
15. Sky Dazzle: Average maiden winner last start. Did beat a good horse though in Magna Rossa and had 6 months between runs.
Comments: Not overly confident or wanting to be betting here today, but it’s hard to pass up Heatherly if going in on them here.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Heatherly to win.
Flemington Race 6
1. Duibio: Very very VERY impressive win last start at Flemington.. was dead last with 300m to go and Hall pulled him out into the clear and just went ZOOOOOOOOOM. The sectionals don’t lie either, 11.80 final 200m… next best in the race 12.38! Now, let’s be fair.. this race certainly does look a harder than those he beat last start, but it’s hard to ignore that last run considering he will be better suited up to 1400m today. Position in running only issue.
2. Gold Force: Every chance first up at Geelong on speed and was poor. Big price for a reason, not winning.
3. Harbour Grey: Well fancied horse that continues to run well. Up in class again i’d suggest here with the runners around him.. but did everything right last start in his win. Maps well on speed.
4. King’s Command: Two wins in a row being well backed both starts. Step up in class here but will be suited by the 1400m. Has to improve.
5. Mihany: Loves to run well but not win with three seconds in a row in this grade. No reason to suggest he can turn the tables on Harbour Grey on last few runs.
6. Ayers Rock: Needs to be slapped a lot with a whip to get the best out of him. Needs further also.
7. Pattern: Wide the whole trip last start at course in 3YB-78 and still won. It was a classy win, but they hardly ever measure up in my experience going from 3YO to open class. Maps much better today at the weights also looks well in. Shouldn’t be favourite though.
8. Metier: Finished off last prep proving he is a very nice type winning a 3YO race at Ballarat off a slow tempo as well. Good turn of foot.
10. Polar Vortex: BM-64 winner.. was setup for him. Can’t see it.
11. He’s A Moral: Going okay this prep. Needs to improve to place i’d suggest. Has the improvement in it though.
Comments: Pattern is a lay, as always, with a 3YO up to open grade. I’m not 100% convinced we will get the speed in the race i’m wanting for the swoopers to be the best favouried in the race, but i also think Duibio looks a great price today. I want to wait and watch on this one to see if they are making up ground from the back in the 1300m+ races and if they are, Duibio is a bet here at the $5s.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 7, 8
Strategy: Duibio Each-Way.
Flemington Race 7
1. The Quarterback: Goes okay first up but best runs the last few preps have been a few runs in. Top weight at the 1000m which is his best distance down the Flemington straight where he has won 3 of his last 4 races and 2 of last 2 at this class. Handles all track conditions.
2. Iconic: Doesn’t win out of turn and his last prep was very poor. Return to his best is obviously good enough to measure up.. but never won down the straight in the past.
3. Barbed: Another horse that hasn’t got a win for a while but doesn’t seem to ever go poorly. Last start down straight wasn’t great though.
4. Hard Stride: Disappointing runs all this prep – hasn’t got within 2.5L. Not for me here.
5. Wild Rain: Brave run 2nd at the Gold Coast last start off a brutal tempo set. Back to 1000m and is well in here. Loves all conditions and never runs poorly.
6. Yesterday’s Song: Goes okay first up and at this track and also distance. Has ability but last prep wasn’t the best we have seen from him.
7. The Monstar: Not convicned he is up to this grade especially down the straight. Take him on.
8. Headwater: Most interesting runner in the race. Ran Buffering to 1.3L in the WFA-G1 at Moonee Valley. Only run down the straight was poor though.
9. Straturbo: Average run last start at Gold Coast. Previous run was okay before that… only run at track didn’t place but has some ability.
10. Bullpit: Huge run last start at course and distance down the outside rail. Same weight here in similar class (slightly harder) so can’t see a reason why he can’t win.
11. Pink Perfection: Every chance 2nd to Bullpit last start and similar weights here.
Comments: Wide open race. The price on Bullpit to go back to back here is well over the correct odds while Wild Rain is in top form and is well in here also.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 8, 10
Strategy: Wild Rain to win. Smaller bet Bullpit.
Flemington Race 8
1. Thought Worthy: UK import who has been in Aus since 2013 and hasn’t won better than 5.8L off a win. Nope.
2. Chile Express: Three runs this prep and not gone close on any occasion. Well backed in class again.
3. Agent: Hawkes runner back in class here. Went close two and three back in similar grades and 1400m suited.
4. Dig A Pony: Prefer it to pour with rain. Ran okay enough last start. Going the right way.
5. Killarney Kid: NZ import with Weir stable. Went close a few runs last prep in harder company. First up goes okay and distance looks okay enough… will have to run a peak though first up over 1400m i’d say.
6. Auld Burns: Last win over the Hurdles. Needs further.
7. The New Boy: Old mate hasn’t been going too bad recently honestly! Got the win five back at Geelong and the runs since have included 1400m 3rd to Volcanic Ash two back. Clear leader on paper and if gets away with easy sections has to be considered at weights.
8. Bel Seal: Two runs this prep found very little. Struggle to suggest.. needs more rain.
9. Camdus: Very talented type on the way through the grades. I have a big opinion of him and while i’m not the type of person to back them as they keep going up and through, he rates perfectly at the weights today from barrier 3 to get a sit just off The New Boy.
10. Dan Zephyr: Very disappointing run down the straight last start. Previous runs much better in harder company. Don’t dismiss.
11. Marco Polo: Fish out of water! Never won in class from 5 starts. Adelaide runs recently not the worst form though.
12. Best Suggestion: Very well beaten last start at Sandown in easier class by 4.8L. Hard to have on that.
Comments: Camdus to mine the clear standout. Weight, mapping and speed + form all in his favour here.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 9, 10
Strategy: Camdus for 3.5 units @ $2.50 to win.
Flemington Race 9
1. Azurite: Irish import. Hard to be upset with th efirst up 4th at Moonee Valley over the unsuitable 1600m. Same class today but up to 1800m second up today. Open class winner over in Ireland.
2. Falago: Very disappointing the two runs this prep. Up to 1800m today where has never missed a place. Goes okay at track as well on previous runs including an Open class win over 2000m. Best runs further into prep… Weir runner so watch for the plunge. Nice barrier.
3. River’s Lane: Last win here at big odds in harder class over similar distance. Two back run went very close at Caulfield when 3rd. Ignore last start on the soft track. Looks the leader in the race.
4. Siegestor: Going well this prep. Back to BM-84 last start at MV and just got the win on the line. Average barrier here and up in weights big time. Has to improve onwards again 4th up.
5. Prix D’or: A long time between drinks this prep until getting a win two back at Sandown then following it up with a win in BM-78 the next start. Up to BM-84 throw at the stumps… going well enough so why not?
6. Capodecina: Love this horses name! Close 3rd last start when injured in race. Obviously recovered from that though going around today… doesn’t have a great record in this class but i think he is a blowout chance.
7. Hero Master: Shown very little this prep when it’s counted for me to be anywhere near him today.
8. Kincaple Chief: Going the right way this prep up in distance. Has ability but still does have to improve to be winning. On speed.
9. Pemberley: Super disappointing loss last start at Sandown. Up to 1800m here off that run is hard to have.
10. Seattelite: Ignore last start when on speed over 2400m.. winner came from the back. Back to 1800m more suited… but even so has to improve on previous form.
12. Saintly Manner: R-58 runner.
Comments: Nightmare of a race to finish the day. Not confident here at all. Wide in the Quaddie.
Confidence 30%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9
Strategy: Falago E/W
