Welcome to The Profits form guide for 25 April 2016 at Flemington. Saturday turned out as expected to be a very tough day as it looked on paper. Our Vidia at big odds went close but just missed a place while Grey Street had every possible chance with the ride and just wasn’t good enough. Onwards and upwards we look at Flemington today. I’ve only previewed the races i’m confident in getting results in and those are the Quaddie legs. Confidence overall for these 4 races is higher than the whole of the card on Saturday. Hopefully we can get a few results our way. Looking forward to a very good day of racing. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 – Nevis for 2 units @ $3.70 to win.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 – Illustrious Lad for 1 unit @ $8/$2.60 Each-Way
Best Value Bet
Flemington Race 6 – Mujadale for 0.5 units @ $41/$8.76 Each-Way
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 8, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 7
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 11, 15
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 5 – 2800m – VRC St Leger
1. Etymology: Obviously an improved run last start on what he had shown all prep, but he was still far off a win. Yes he looks a nice type on what he showed last prep but his form this prep has been no where near what we have seen so far. Barrier a huge disadvantage.
2. Hardern: Maps a dream today just off the leader, could even sit outside him. First time up to this distance. Never won over anything above 1600m in the past. Last few runs have been good if he can get the distance.
3. Cool Chap: Obviously a horse with ability and has the right breeding to measure up to this race and class. 3YO class winner over 2000m and ran a nice 2nd in this grade over 2400m. Will get the distance. Expected to lead and shouldn’t have to put a strong tempo on.
4. Bullish Stock: Seems to get the 2400m based on runs this prep, but just how good is he? Tavistock bred so hard to ignore them in a race like this. Has to improve.
5. Skulduggery: Maiden only winner. Well beaten last start over 2400m at Sandown. Hard to suggest.
6. Tuff Bickie: Given a tough ride last start at Sandown and came through the race well for mine. Wasn’t disgraced and looks to have the potential progression.
7. Joueur: Took 10 starts to win a race which was a $1.90 favourite 53kg over 2600m in 3Y+CL1 grade at Gosford in a 5 horse race. Not exactly the form you want heading into this, but he will stay all day at least.
8. Sarimanok: Maiden winner over 2000m but three runs since make it hard to see him measuring up for a place.
9. Laser Sight: Yet to place in 6 starts to date. Hard to see.
11. Cracklin’ Rosie: 15 starts for 4 places 0 wins. Failed to measure up in similar grade last start. Will stay but hard to have.
12. Meru: Ran a nice enough race 3rd last start at Sandown over the 2400m. Will enjoy the extra distance and is only five up so i’d be expecting a bit more improvement onwards again today. Can run well.
13. Fiefdom: Couldn’t win a maiden last start over 2460m or over 2200m the previous start, nosed out both times. Shows a lack of a will to win. Should stay no issues, just class is the big issue.
14. Wintonia: Beaten 13L last start at Caulfield over 2000m. BM-64 6th the run before. Did beat Menu over 2000m in a maiden.
Comments: The prices today suggest what we are all feeling, this is a low rating St Leger with a lack of form. Etymology won’t be measuring up to a Group 1 race this prep on current form, but this is well down from that. Cool Chap looks suited here and the odds are correct.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 12
Strategy: Cool Chap to win. Small bet also on Tuff Bickie.
Flemington Race 6 – 2530m – ANZAC Cup
1. Big Memory: Loves to tease you. Hasn’t won since 2014 and has won second a number of times. Beaten 0.1L last two starts infact! Top weight for reason and always runs well at this distance and also this track.
2. Swacadelic: Very disappointing run last start over 2400m. Three back beat Signoff over 2400m at MV. Expect a much improved run here.
3. Mujadale: Two runs since his win here in January have been well below the mark. Looks the leader today with no one finally expected to take him on. Goes well at track and at distance but will need to be over-whipped to win.
4. Tuscan Fire: Doesn’t win often. Last win over 1700m. Personally feel he just doesn’t get this distance with a strong tempo.
7. Don Doremo: Looking for further! Runs to date below expectation to win this.
8. High Church: Done everything right going through the grades over this distance. Will run well again and maps well from a good barrier.
9. At First Sight: Old mate is back to his best distance range. Always needs a few runs before he finds his best and that probably is today. Decently weighted.
10. Word of Mouth: Well backed the last three starts and got no closer than 5.3L in all runs. Unknown over distance.
11. Red Fella: Long time between drinks or even placings. Not bad run 3rd to High Church two back but well beaten last start.
12. Tintaglia: Hard to ignore this talented mare. Has gone through the grades with her last four runs being over 2400m range with 1.3L, 3.8L and 6L wins. Obviously her hardest test to date and would really enjoy rain that isn’t due.
13. Paradanza: Always looked a nice type but well beaten at this level three runs back. Think this is beyond her.
14. Choix de Maia: Well beaten two and three back by Tintaglia. Hard to see the improvement but will stay.
15. Hucknall: Goes well over the hurdles so does stay. Outclassed here.
16. Aagas: Hard to suggest a place on previous runs. Last win was R-58.
Comments: There isn’t a lot of class in this race when Big Memory is favourite. I have to go with the value runner here in a horse I absolutely hate in Mujadale. He is well weighted here and is the only leader on paper. The last two starts he had uncontested leads he won and ran 2nd to the very talented Tall Ship. He has won 2 from 4 starts at this track. For the record, I think Big Memory is around the right price today.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 8, 12
Strategy: Mujadale for 0.5 units @ $41/$8.76 Each-Way
Flemington Race 7 – 1700m – FLT LT Peter Armytage Handicap
1. Nevis: Expected from the wide gate to be pushed out early and try and cross and take up the lead all the way. Very good wins the last two in a row at Bendigo in a quick time leading all the way and then last start at Sandown getting more of a easier time and winning with ease. Up in weights… still progressing well and hard to beat here.
2. Guest of Honour: Every chance last start well beaten by Nevis. Can improve 3rd run in today but has to find lengths.
3. Zabisco: Two runs this prep with a year off and failed to fire. Needs more runs on what i’ve seen to date.
4. Atlantis Dream: Continues to be backed but finds a few too good at every run. Beaten 2.5L last start but did run on well. Barrier hurts chances big time.
5. Hans Holbein: Another Hickmott trained horse. 1.8L winner of 3Y-GP3 over Storm the Stars over 2400m. Did win over 2000m on soft. Better over further for mine on form.
6. Backbone: Hasn’t won since 2014 over 2500m. Hard to see measuring up based on two runs to date this prep.
7. Petrology: Frustrating horse to back. Was a nicely improved run last start at Sandown. If they decide to fit further forward today from barrier 6 then a win wouldn’t be a total shock on best runs to date.
9. Cooldini: Beaten $1.40 favourite over hurdles to finish last prep. Never placed first up says a lot. Needs further.
10. Zanteca: Best runs over much further. Needs the run.
11. Minnie Downs: Well beaten first up over shorter. Goes much better over this distance but 5 runs for 0 wins at this class on record. Has to improve.
12. Inspector: Going the right way about things this prep but continues to not go close. Has ability up in distance always helps. Will be a long way back.
13. Extra Noble: Yet to measure up to this grade in the past even when starting favourite once. First up run showed nothing at all. Tough to see the win.
14. Sasenkile: Always showed ability but failed to measure up all of last prep. Can forgive and suggest a much better run this time in, but needs further.
15. Turnitaround: Always seems to run a nice race at Flemington and over these distances, but never won at this grade for a reason.
Comments: Nevis is the proven quality coming into this race today. The wide barrier should be no disadvantage to him getting over and getting the lead and controlling the tempo to suit.
Confidence 80%
Qauddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 7
Strategy: Nevis for 2 units @ $3.70 to win.
Flemington Race 8 – 1200m – Phillip Schuler Handicap
1. LuckyI’mBareFoot: Tough weight today. Best runs in past have been over slightly further. First up form is okay. Never placed from 7 starts at track.
2. We’ve Got This: Finished last prep with 2 wins in a row including one at course and distance in harder class. Well weighted with claims.
3. Illustrious Lad: Gone to the next level this prep I’d suggest with strong runs winning two of his last three including a huge win in Adelaide last start. Will be ridden for luck as expected but down the straight in the past has always run well.
4. Decircles: Old mate hasn’t gone close to a win the past two preps. hard to have here.
5. Sweet As Bro: Two runs this prep have been okay but nothing to write home about. Just not genuine Open/Listed class. Back to BM-84 obviously helps chances but never won at Flemington an issue. Did handle the straight though.
6. Chivalry: Hard horse to catch. Hasn’t won since 2014 for good reason. Couldn’t have him first up for new stable from barrier at the weight.
7. Supido: Hard to ignore this bloke here. Missed the carnival due to injury set backs which is obviously something to keep in your mind when backing him today, but his times are more than sound and suggest he is the real deal.
8. Zupacharged: Every chance all runs this prep and failed to fire a win. Back in class but not really.
9. Rich Jack: Consistent type who handles the straight. Last prep measured up to slightly below this.
11. Murt The Flirt: Win over Wild Rain on record 5 back but since then shown very little. Hard to suggest here.
12. Staviva: Awkward barrier for his pattern. 4 runs 0 places at track a big negative but 4 starts 6 wins at distance. First up ran well but last start very average.
14. Alias: Goes okay first up but generally in easier races or wetter races. Not for mine.
15. Duibio: Old mate looked a superstar at start of prep running so well over the 1200m but last few runs have been disappointing. Back to Straight track should help his chances.
18. Face Forward: Nice horse on previous preps runs but has been a long time between drinks and was only fair at best first up.
19. King’s Command: Won three in a row before failing on the soft last start at Bendigo well beaten fairly. Needs to improve. Has won at track obviously but not over this distance.
20. Tansy: 5 runs for 0 wins at track but always goes close down the straight it seems. Going okay this prep but not good enough to win this.
Comment: I’m convinced Illustrious Lad is the real deal coming off the last start ratings that were sensational. The barrier while considered a negative, should see him get a spot where he won’t find any troubles. I think Supido is unders based on the setbacks this prep.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 11, 15
Strategy:Illustrious Lad for 1 unit @ $8/$2.60 Each-Way
