Welcome to The Profits form guide for 20 February 2016 at Flemington. Back at HQ and back to regular time slots with no 30 minute gaps. Still just looking to Flemington but I do note a nice card or two up north! Two clear standouts on the card that are both double bet plays while two other decent bets as well. Expecting the track to play fair and give everyone a chance. We are with the Grey in the big one. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 – Palentino for 3.5 units to win @ $4.00. Top Me Up for 0.5 units @ $26 to win.
Palentino is a very talented Weir runner. Was huge last start when never got a run at them. Up to 1400m looks ideal here to put them away. Top Me Up is in the same boat, going exactly the same way and is big overs.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 – Pemberley for 2 units @ $3.40 to win. Falago for 1.1 units @ $6.00 to win.
Two clear standouts in this race. Pemberley and Falago’s last runs were both for wins and both look well weighted here and map well enough all things considered. Happy with the prices.
Other Bets
Flemington Race 1 – All Cerise for 1.25 units @ $3.20. Marli Magic @ $5.60 for 0.75 units.
Flemington Race 5 – Don’t Doubt Mamma for 1 unit to place @ $3.20
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 4, 8, 9, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 10, 12, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 7, 9, 14
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
1. All Cerise: Very good win last start to make it three in a row. Equal class and equal weight at course and distance of the last win with 3 weeks between runs. Others potentially taking her on for the speed run today.
2. Dig A Pony: Two runs this prep have been okay without threatening to win. Weeks between runs, could have improved onwards. Dunn keeps ride. Would like it to rain.
3. Secret Toy Bizness: Happy to take this girl on. Outclassed on previous form.
4. Vital Importance: Nice enough type. Well weighted here today but has to improve significantly on last few runs and i’m not sure she has much improvement in her.
5. Written: Bounced back to form last start at Caulfield over 1400m. Has won at track previously and step up to 1600m and this class no issues having won in both. Respect.
6. Marli Magic: Never far off a win. Just missed last start from out the back from a wide barrier at Caulfield.. was a very good run and looks well weighted compared to Written today with Payne’s claim.
7. Blendwell: Looked a nice type last prep not missing a place but has come back in very average form. Will turn a corner soon but not this run.
8. Pindan Pearl: Did a lot wrong first up but finished off solidly. Going the right way off that run but think she needs another run to show her best to win in this grade. Can place.
Comments: All Cerise and Marli Magic are the two standouts on my ratings at the prices available. Key chances to take them down are Written, Pindan Pearl and Dig A Pony.. but I think our two have them covered here for fitness and at the weights. Happy to take the $2+ for either runner of ours to win.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: All Cerise for 1.25 units @ $3.20. Marli Magic @ $5.60 for 0.75 units.
Flemington Race 2
1. Jackson: Looked a very nice type winning first up at Sandown but failed to deliver the next start at Randwick. Will need to be at his best today but looks suited by the track.
2. Havildar: Very green his only run to date but ran nicely for 2nd when did a lot wrong. Suited by a short sprint distance like this.
3. Weatherly: Hype horse first run in and ran well against the pattern of the day. Expect he will be much better suited down the straight today. Go well here.
4. Wimborne: Showed nothing first run ever. Have to find a lot more here today.
5. Battle Order: First ever run. Nice enough trial heading in. Money came in early market.
6. Happy Halloween: Decent enough trial win. Interesting breeding.
7. Shaq: First run. Market only guide.
8. Want To Rock: Very strong win first ever run down the straight. No disgrace against her pattern from off the speed last start at Caulfield. Much better suited here.
9. Pearl Congenial: No disgrace either run last prep. Both solid. Been nominated a few times and not gone around telling me she wasn’t tip top shape which is a concern heading here for mine.
10. Call me Tess: Maiden win over 900m in a decent first race win. Drifter in markets an issue.
11. Brittany: Very well backed her first ever run at Moonee Valley but was no match for the winner. Has to improve on that.
12. Queen Magdalene: Did a lot wrong over-racing first up but still ran very well 1.5L 4th. Wasn’t the best form race around though so does have to improve even if runs perfectly.
13. Ramensky: Out the back last start when never really a chance. Have to find another 2 gears to win this.
14. Pop: Big drifter. Showed very little only run last prep. Damien Oliver onboard.
15. Plenty to Like: Two runs and had chances both times and couldn’t get closer than 3.5L.
16. Conscious: First up runner here. Market only guide.
17. Clockwork Orange: Well backed Hayes runner. Bred very well and a nice work about her.
18. Overstep: Very strong trial win. Looked very handy. Been well backed. Just needs to get a run.
Comments: Wide open race. No bet race every single time.
Confidence 40%
Strategy: Weatherly to win.
Flemington Race 3
1. Afleet Esprit: Went through the grades last prep and got a win over 1100m at Caulfield. Has won previously at course. Important claim down to 59.5kg. Has won first up in past… has to be at her best here but does have a good strike rate.
2. Rose of Falvelon: Tony McEvoy runner who stays over in Melbourne for the run today. Ran very well 2nd to Aunty Mo over the 950 at Moonee Valley… Aunty Mo won very well last night in harder company. This horse looks really well suited over the distance and looks to be back to her best.
3. Japhils: Progressed nicely through the grades last prep with a 3YOF win on the record and even 3YO-LR win but best runs were over further. Only run at course was quite good on a heavy track down the straight. Has ability.
4. Sweet Emily: Disappointing first up when failed, but didn’t handle the soft by all reports. Very nice type on previous preps runs and goes fine at Flemington. Will be fitter and will enjoy track conditions. Can run well.
5. Pretty Possum: Finished last prep with a few issues but she is a consistent type that always puts in nice runs. First run ever down straight a big issue in this grade. Happy to take her on here.
8. Estaminet: Last start winner at Moonee Valley in harder class over the 955m. Did it very easy in the end. J Mac onboard and well weighted here.
9. Scratchy Lass: Adelaide runner who is first up after 3 months off. Much harder run than she has seen ever. Has to improve but can obviously run well.
Comments: Estaminet looks a nice type that keeps going through the grades. I’m not convinced the last start win was in anywhere near as good a race as this one is today though so justifying a bet at the $2.20 first time down straight is questionable. Japhils looks the other horse at unders in the race needing further in my opinion. Afleet Esprit is the class runner here for mine, but certainly doesn’t win out of turn with just 1 from her last 8 the last two preps.. will have to be at her best at these weights. Two value runners in this race are Rose of Falvelon and Sweet Emily. Both have the ratings at the weights to win and both have decent jockeys onboard.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Rose of Falvelon and Sweet Emily.
Flemington Race 4
1. Falago: Three length win last start at Caulfield just 7 days ago. Obviously flying and when Weir sends them straight back out you have to take note.
2. Golden Mane: Mixes his form up so is very hard to catch. Has never got the job done yet at this distance and his best runs have come in the past at shorter straight tracks. Has to improve.
3. Renew: Hasn’t placed in over 10 runs. Needs further. Here for the run.
4. Pin Your Hopes: 3 runs at this distance in the past and yet to place. Not in this class here on runs this prep.
5. Azurite: Well backed last start off a good run at Moonee Valley. Best runs in past over further so should be suited up to 2000m. A long time between drinks though.
6. Pop ‘n’ Scotch: On previous runs I have to believe he wants further than this. Never placed first up.
7. Word of Mouth: Coming off two ‘forgive’ runs and up to his right distance today, it’s hard to discount this talented stayer. He has never measured up to this level in the past, but he did run a bold 3rd in Open class last prep. Certainly over the odds.
8. Mr Journeyman: Had every chance last start at Caulfield but just not good enough. Looks to be suited in this race against to have his chances… just not sure hs is going well enough to improve the length required.
9. Tuff Host: Very disappointing run last start at Caulfield. Much better weighted here, but up in class again to a race class he has never competed in. Questions over if he is a true 2000m horse on last start and if he really just wants a strong 1600m.
10. Scelto: Colac Cup last start improved significantly to just miss being beaten by Ancient King. Back in class so to speak here, but has had 10 runs for 0 wins at this track for a reason. Is going well enough to consider a big chance.
11. Pemberley: Very disappointing run two back at Sandown letting us down, but he bounced back very well for a good win last start at Flemington. Up in class and distance here but stays at same weight. Has to be considered.
Comments: A few winning chances in this race but i’m clear on where my sights are set. I’m taking on Golden Mane at the weights due to the horses recent inconsistency. The same can also be said for Tuff Host up in this class for the first time ever.. the horse just can’t be trusted on what we saw last start and i’m happy to bet around. Scelto does look the overs in the race after the Colac Cup run, but my eyes are set on two runners here in Pemberley and Falago.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Pemberley for 2 units @ $3.40 to win. Falago for 1.1 units @ $6.00 to win.
Flemington Race 5
1. Jameka: Both preps we have seen her very best runs have come deeper into preps with 4th up the earliest wins. Goes well at this track and distance but very best over further.
2. Perfect Reflection: 5 runs for 5 wins. Settled in well over in Victoria and looks very well suited here. Best runs have been around these distances and she will be very hard to beat.
3. Sacred Eye: Looked a very nice type her first prep and will have trained on being a High Chap filly. Seemed to be looking for 2000m+ to find her very best.
4. Don’t Doubt Mamma: Certainly in the right distance for her abilities to be shown. McEvoy stable is flying at the moment and this girl is certainly one you wanted to follow out of the Spring campaign. Looks very well suited.
5. Italy: Hasn’t won in her last 8 runs a big concern. Every chance first up, did pull up with breathing issues, but hard to just forgive in this class.
6. Alaskan Rose: Looked a very nice type winning her first two runs but just didn’t make the top level grade. Not a terrible first up run this prep but has to improve clearly.
7. Egypt: Very nice win last start at Sandown. Much harder here.
Comments: Two clear standouts over this distance have to be Perfect Reflrection and Don’t Doubt Mamma. I would have to give the edge to Don’t Doubt Mamma based on track winning experience and knowing her very best distance last prep was the 1400m so she is getting what she wants while Perfect Reflection stretched out over 1800m winning on a heavy track and has a change of jockey today. The value in this race for mine is with Don’t Doubt Mamma at the place price (2 places paid).
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Don’t Doubt Mamma for 1 unit to place @ $3.20
Flemington Race 6
1. Gold Symphony: Horrible both runs this prep. Breathing issues last start. Find it impossible to suggest a bet here.
2. Bon Aurum: Very nice run first up at Caulfield when simply never got a shot at them and was flying. Looks well suited up to the 1400m and primed ready to win.
3. Sovereign Nation: Hayes stable have a big opinion of him. Ran nicely enough first up but looking for 1600m to find his very best. Has to improve.
4. Palentino: Never got a shot at them last start at Caulfield and was absolutely flying. Perfect barrier today and expect them to sit slightly further forward than last start. Speed will be on which suits.
5. Ready for Victory: Every chance last start at Caulfield and simply not good enough. Really felt like he was wanting 1600m on that run and i think the 1400m will see him ridden out and run well again but just won’t have the turn of foot required the final 200m to keep going with the best of them.
6. River Wild: Waterhouse runner sent down to take this one on. This is a much harder test than he has ever seen previously.
7. Lizard Island: Looks to have trained on nicely coming back well, but his very best runs last prep were 1600m+… not saying he can’t win over 1400m but i’d want to see the run first today.
8. Top Me Up: Absolutely screwed up the start last start and ran on very well for 5th. Was 7 wide in the straight making up ground on them late when he is most effective from on the pace where he should position today. Big odds on offer today.
9. Vostok: Had every chance last start at Caulfield and found a few too good. Nice type of horse but clearly has to improve on that run up to the 1400m. Can do so.
10. Patch Adams: First up run found very little and i couldn’t be on him off that. Needs a few runs into prep before i’d trust.
11. Tulsa: Very disappointing run first up on speed. He was 3-wide but that was no excuse on the day. Need to improve significantly.
12. Tivaci: Very nice win first up at Pakenham. Didn’t beat much that day but is certainly going the right way up in distance.
Comments: VERY keen to be betting into this race today. Palentino is a massive price on a horse with unlimited potential. Very happy to be backing him here off what i saw first up at the price. Top Me Up is hugely under-rated by the market. I’ve let the horse go around the last two runs and have been very impressed with what i’ve seen.. can run well and can win.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg One: 4, 8, 9, 12
Strategy: Palentino for 3.5 units to win @ $4.00. Top Me Up for 0.5 units @ $26 to win.
Flemington Race 7
1. Chautauqua: The World’s Best Sprinter, he has been very well backed all week and is now the favourite. Say what you want about the 0.1L 2nd to Delectation, he was in the worst ground on a soft track that isn’t his best surface. Goes huge over the 1000m and goes huge on a dry track. Conditions are ideal in a small field where he should have no excuses.
2. Terravista: Old mate Terravista hasn’t lived up to his trainer’s claims. Last two preps have seen a total of 1 win and 0 seconds from 6 runs. Previous two preps saw 5 wins from 7 runs. Safe to say he has either gone backwards, or simply needs to regain his mofo. Very much argue the 1000m is too short for him here.. the price to place certainly looked value until we got into the under 8 runners. Take on for mine first up 1000m.
3. Delectation: Nice win here last prep over Chautauqua… proved to everyone that he is the real deal. That being said, first up today over 1000m, on previous form lines I have to believe he wants this run today. Others preferred.
4. Va Pensiero: Nice enough type but his very best has been in easier races than this.
5. Exosphere: The Real Deal . Com. Failed heavily in the Spring at his only run down the straight which is a MASSIVE issue today taking on the very best of them. 3YO up into open class as a 3YO… by the letter of the law, you have to take him on against the very best especially down the straight. I’ll be looking deeper into his prep for something like the TJ Smith around a bend or Newmarket if he does handle this today. Go check out the Godolphin recent record in Melbourne in Group races and it’s hard to take the $2.70.
6. Japonisme: Won very well in the Coolmore which was a great result for racing as he is a gelding! Will have absolutely no issues with the 1000m and looks rock hard fit. Big class jump here from age to open class. Think he has the ability to make the jump.
Comments: Chautauqua is Australia’s and probably the world’s best sprinter in my opinion and while the mail I have on Exosphere is hard to ignore, I can’t take a 3YO taking on this class of race at the price when the horses only run was a fail down the straight.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6
Strategy: Chautauqua to win.
Flemington Race 8
1. Charmed Harmony: You know i love him! Won 5 of his last 7 races with two very solid runs in Group 1 and Group 3 filling those defeats. Very strong first up record and very strong record over 1400m. Clearly his best runs have been in tracks with a bit of give, so i’ll question just how well a Race 8 track will suit him on a sunny day with no rain with this weight. Can win on a good track but is just not as good as on a track with a little give!
2. Amorino: Very disappointing run last start at Caulfield when well beaten 4th. 7 days between runs. Clearly has the ability on everything we know, but tough to see the big improvement on first two runs at weights.
3. Puccini: Old mate is back and you just never know when he is going to fire. Never won first up or at the distance or at the track a concern. Best over further but 1400m isn’t too short. Group 1 winner.
4. Kenjorwood: Another horse that I love and you know why, he just keeps on trying and running well. This is his class level on last preps runs but i think he has the ability to place in a strong group race at his best. Goes okay first up but better into preps. Never won at this distance… wnats 1800-2000m to find his best.
5. Observational: Was huge word around this guy was absolutely flying last prep but was pulled out of the Caulfield Cup campaign. If he returns in any similar shape you have to believe he is a live chance. May just be a tad too short for him even this.
6. Digitalism: Another horse we consistently win on. Best runs are clearly 2000m+ the issue.
7. Zabisco: Group 3 winner in a very low Group 3 race at Sandown. This is his true level but that’s on 2014 form. Two runs last prep well beaten. Struggle to suggest without inside word. Money hasn’t come either.
8. Gracious Prospect: Disappointing this prep in all runs to date managing just third at best. Similar class to last start, doing a lot wrong. Has to improve.
9. Mighty Like: Blocked for runs last start but was never winning IMO. Got the perfectly setup race tow back and will find it hard to get again.
10. Dan Zephyr: Continues to race well and continues to win. Well weighted again here and won at track previously also. This is his distance… respect.
11. Underestimation: Had his chances last start at Caulfield but fell out of it disappointingly. Didn’t measure up to the class simply. Hard to have for mine.
12. Zupacharged: Five runs this prep, two as short odds and hasn’t won any of them. May have gone backwards the last two runs. Barrier hurts.
14. Chile Express: Hard to have on previous four runs and the previous 10 to that!
15. Divan: Very best runs in the past have been well over this distance range with 2000-2400m the right distances. Need to be at the top of his game to win this. Payne hasn’t won in over 55 rides and has just 2 wins for the year is a bit of an issue.
16. Flying Casino: Couldn’t suggest him for a place.
Comments: Going wide in the Quaddie, but I really think there are two main chances in Charmed Harmony and Dan Zephyr
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 10, 12, 15
Strategy: Dan Zephyr Each-Way.
Flemington Race 9
1. Jimando: Finished last prep with two wins. Goes well first up as well, won last prep first up in easier grade. Best runs in the past still probably mean he has to produce a near peak at the weights to win. Can but it’s tough!
2. Hard Stride: Never runs a dull race. Was a good 7th all things considered last start. Easier this and up in weight.
3. Yesterday’s Songs: Always looked a very good type and did win an Open class two preps back… Group 3 placed. Up to 1200m helps looking for 1400m to find his best and probably not down the straight.
4. Henwood: Meow! Good to have Henny back. Didn’t win last prep and hasn’t won in 11 runs. Goes okay first up and has won once from 14 starts at this track while twice in this class. Hard to see the win without significantly off-season improvement that is hard to believe as a 7YO.
5. Lonrockstar: Had his chances last start down the straight and found Onerous just simply too good. Can run well but hard to see turning the tables.
6. Zebrinz: First up today. Never placed first up in the past and never won in this distance range. Needs the run.
7. Rough Justice: Always runs well down the side and is never far off. Certainly hasn’t gone on with it to the extent hoped as a 3YO. Has to improve on last two runs, but clearly back in class does help here at weights. Expect him to be in the finish.
8. Sweet As Bro: Never placed at track, never won first up. Best runs over 1400m+ in past.
9. Onerous: He won and won well last start down the straight. Looks to be very well weighted up to this class today. Has clear ability and proved it last start. Few weeks between runs ideal.
11. Flow Meter: Not the worst run ever last start 4th at Morphetville to Sirbible. Previous runs all solid but no wins this prep. Has to improve.
13. Tansy: Gets his chances but doesn’t take them. Won like 1 of his last 20 and none from 3 runs this prep. Well up in class here.
14. We’ve Got This: Good win last start at Caulfield but this will be harder. 3 runs 0 wins from Flemington a concern. Going well enough.
Comments: Onerous clearly the standout in the race.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 7, 9, 14
Strategy: Onerous to win.
