Welcome to The Profits form guide for 2 October 2016 for Turnbull Stakes day at Flemington. We got the weekend back on track with a nice 9 unit profit yesterday at Caulfield with some strong results going our way. We continue onwards with strong confidence again today with some big bets early on in the card before the rain comes. As always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 – Under The Louvre – 5 units @ $2.80
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 2 – Inside Agent – 2 units Each-Way – $6.50/$2.20
Other Bets
Flemington Race 3 – Kent – 1.5 units @ $10. Larrikin – 0.5 units @ $81
Other Bets
Flemington Race 6 – Peeking Duck – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $13/$4.20
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 2, 5, 7
Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 9, 13
Leg Three: 2, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 17
Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – Maribyrnong Trial Stakes
No preview.
Comments: 2YO race with unseen runners. Good luck.
Confidence 0%
Strategy: Explicitly E/W
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – Poseidon Stakes
1. Trenchant: No support first up over the unsuitable 1200m but did under perform on that day also. Not 100% sure he is fully screwed down just yet but it is a month between runs and up to 1400m back to Flemington.
3. Peacock: J mac gets the ride today which suggests this is the top pick from the stable? Disappointing run first up well beaten in easier company. Should be better suited back to a longer straight at Flemington and I doubt they will push for the lead today if they don’t have to.
4. Simply Invincible: Maiden winner after 7 attempts… got it on a heavy track. Never placed on Good. Hard to place here.
5. Styleman: 6.5L winner at Pakenham last start after competing in 2YO races the previous prep. Looks a handy type. Maps well.
6. Magnarock: Awkward barrier. Maiden win on a heavy track. Should be fine on a Good track. Looks to be wanting the 1400m but is hard to suggest a win over this lot on what i’ve seen to date.
7. Northern Lion: Won well two back as a maiden on a soft track. Very disappointing last start up in grade. Has been well fancied both attempts in this grade.
8. Ribbon of Choice: Maiden winner in slow time last start at Bendigo on a soft track. Needs to improve.
9. Lucky Beau: Two runs for two seconds in maiden company heading into this. First dry track he will face today.
10. Inside Agent: Huge run from the back last start after missing the start 4L and only beating defeated 2.4L. Up to 1400m will certainly help the way he hit the line. I’d imagine he will be further forward in racing today. Looks the one to beat on form.
12. Zunbaqa: 4th behind Detective last start, but that form wasn’t franked last night with Detective failing at Moonee Valley. Had every chance that day on speed in a slowly run race. Needs to improve again here to beat all these home.
13. Outback Rain: Maiden winner. First up ran very well 2nd to Exocet – beaten 2.3 Lengths. Going well enough to consider.
14. Petition:
Comments: On form there really aren’t many top chances in this race. I have Styleman the clear danger today to our top pick in Inside Agent who, while having a lot to prove today, showed me more than enough first up to be confident of an improved performance good enough to beat this field.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Inside Agent – 2 units Each-Way – $6.50/$2.20
Flemington Race 3 – 1800m – UCI Stakes
1. Throssell: Huge run from the back last start when not suited by the tempo and still almost got the win. Nicer barrier today for a more forward position and will appreciate the track condition again. Only query is the 1800m.
4. Kent: Typical Godolphin runner that is most likely screaming for more ground. 2YO winner over 1550m and will have no dramas with the distance today. Good type.
5. Lord Macau: Every possible chance the past two runs down here and they are going for a third shot. While up to 1800m, I can’t see it making the difference against this lot.
6. Rocketeer: Beaten fairly by two very good types the past two starts with Hey Doc franking the form last night with an impressive win. Awkward barrier.. will be running on.
7. Highlad: Gelded. Oliver onboard for this NZ horse. Won in this class previously. Straight up to 1800m and wants it on breeding. Have to respect the booking. Barrier is horrible.
8. Odeon: Outside barrier today. Up in distance again suits but it’s a struggle o find the extra lengths required to measure up here from the barrier based on last few runs in this grade.
9. Captain Duffy: Not going well enough.
10. All Out of Love: Forgive run last start when never got cover in Adelaide. Previous prep looked a nice type running close 3rd to Trenchant. Has to improve and barrier 16 doesn’t help his chances here.
11. Missile Boom: Maiden winner heading into this. Question on breeding if the straight step up to 1800m is the wisest move but i’ll take the trainers word for it! Clearly needs to improve lengths.
12. Wimborne: Short backup got the win last start at Geelong over 1535m after being fairly beaten the previous start. Needs further which he gets today but will need to improve to place here.
13. Beach Life: Maiden winner at Mornington from the back. Was a very nice run and will take improvement up in distance. Will be a long way back is the issue today.
14. Positive Carry: Maiden winner at Sale in similar distances. Clearly needs to find lengths but has talent.
15. Larrikin: Huge forgive run last start when should have been battling Hey Doc for the win. Step up in distance looks ideal and he is a dead set massive price today. Keen to play again.
16. Eureka Street: Smashed last start on speed where the favourite won from. Up in distance but hard to suggest.
17. Wine Bush: Blinkers first time. Couldn’t win a maiden over 1600m last start.
19. Captain Rhett: Ran 2nd in a maiden last start over 1738. Struggle to suggest here.
20. Khartoum: Not here.
Comments: Several runners with 0 chance straight of the bat which helps, but it doesn’t for those looking for a good run. Kent is our clear top pick here while Larrikin is the massive value in the race.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Kent – 1.5 units @ $10. Larrikin 0.5 units @ $81.
Flemington Race 4 – 1200m – Gilgai Stakes
1. Under the Louvre: Was weighted out of the race last start down the straight when ran a very fair 4th. Will be fitter for the run today and gets in much better at the weights today with a 6kg turn around on Faatinah.
2. The Quarterback: Group 1 winner down the straight last prep beating Black Heart Bart and Chautauqua… then went on to run well but fail to win after that. Best runs have been a few runs into the prep recently and looks well enough weighted.
3. Stratum Star: Went backwards at the end of last prep going on too far with the runs. WFA-1 placed horse. Best runs over further.
4. Faatinah: Hard to take anything poor out of last start where he went start to finish and just kept running. Up 4kg today and Under The Louvre down 2kg shows you how tough the weighting is today for him to do it again. Will be there in the finish.
5. Generalife: Loves to run a solid race without going close. Will continue that today with a placing at best.
6. Durendal: Only soft first up behind Faatinah. Poorly weighted today. No chance.
7. We’ve Got This: Jumped poorly last start but finished off very well for 3rd behind Faatinah. Not very well in at the weights but will run well.
8. Spy Decoder: First up today and has never won first up… 8 runs 0 places in this class. Best over further.
9. Saint Valorem: Going well enough through the grades but this is a massive step up in class first time at Flemington down the straight.
Comments: Under The Louve is one of our favourites horses and most will remember last start I declared him as the worst weighted horse of the day. He finds himself 3-6kg better off against most those runners, with 6kg against the winner the important stat. Very keen to have a nice big bet today.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Under The Louvre – 5 units @ $2.80
Flemington Race 5 – 2500m – The Bart Cummings
1. Almoonqith: Not suited last start off a slow speed at Caulfield. Up to 2500m today which is more his distance range and looks well suited from a good barrier. Good track condition is important.
2. Excess Knowledge: Two runs this prep and very poor on both occasions. Another who will fancy the extra distance today and goes well at track.
3. Almandin: Very good form lines as a horse. Not suited two runs back off a slow tempo and last start got it run to suit. Up in class here but clearly has the ability to run well again.
4. Pentathion: NZ import. Two runs heading into prep have been average at best. Last prep showed this distance is suitable.. Group 2 placed over 3200m.
5. Shimrano: Certainly asked to do a lot last start and fell out of it very quickly. Have to believe he can run better if ridden better, but a return to his best is needed here.
6. Swacadelic: Three runs this prep and hasn’t gone close on any occasion. Struggle to suggest the win even with the step up in distance.
7. Zanteca: Horrible last start with the pace far too slow behind Jameka. This is the race for her to stand up and be counted.
8. Aloft: Too far back off a slow pace first up behind Killarney Kid. Up to 2500m will see an improved run.
9. Lucques: Loves a staying test and got it last start with a win at course and distance.
10. Dandy Gent: Nice enough run 2nd to Raw Impulse last start at Morphetville, but was beaten 4.8 Lengths. Going well enough to suggest he can go nicely here up in distance.
12. Vengeur Masque: Import from France/UK. Some very decent runs over this distance including WFA-G3 runs. Respect his class and looked to have improvement to come last start when 0.2L 2nd over 2200m.
Comments: Wide open race here today. Almandin looks unders for mine having everything to prove here. Almoonqith is the class runner and worth an E/W play at the odds.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Almoonqith E/W
Flemington Race 6 – 1600m – TAB Edward Manifold Stakes
1. Chipanda: Awkward barrier today. Smashed by Foxplay last start in an average form race for mine. Has to improve here with the extra distance to record a solid win.
2. Exocet: Had the race run to suit and looked the goods winning it at Caulfield beating 13 other runners home with ease from the back. Will be coming home strong and late again here.
3. Serenly Discreet: Only a fair win two back in Adelaide and then last start ridden for luck and found none untested to the line. Has to still prove itself here, but does have some ability the way it finished off compared to others infront.
4. Smart As You Think: Looks an okay enough type and ran well 2nd at Morphetville last start in similar grade. Would love the rain to come to enhance chances I imagine.
5. Eleonora: Nice type that has some good runs on the board from over in NZ. First up won well in a maiden and looking for the step up here.
6. Bella Sorellastra: Easy enough win last start in a small field at Sale. Huge jump in class this one.
7. Peeking Duck: The unlucky runner of the Exocet race. This horse looks to have a massive amount of ability and i’m keen for a big run today.
8. Gogo Grace: Adelaide runner. Maiden winner and defeated fairly by Benz last start. Big jump in distance straight away. Respect.
9. Whyyouask: Could have run better last start from a more forward position when missing the start. Good barrier today will need a bit of luck in running.
10. Waterloo Sunset: Maiden winner in an only average time at Pakenham. Have to take on.
11. Fromparis Withlove: Corstens runner that is yet to win a race. Best as a 2YO looked good enough to be a smart type, but i’m yet to see it.
12. Another Bullseye: Maiden win at Geelong after running last behind Leotie at Caulfield. Needs another run for me to consider.
13. Bettyrae Ruby: Fair enough maiden win doing stuff wrong last start. Distance should help but does need time this horse.
14. Classic Diva: Heavy track win last start for this High Chap filly. Good form behind Legless Veuve previous start. Respect here up to 1600m.
15. Sognani: Maiden winner. Well beaten last start behind Exocet. Hard to suggest.
16. Vainglorious: Maiden. Well beaten last start with no real excuses at Caulfield. Needs to improve.
17. Von Richter: Yet to win a race and hard to consider on runs to date.
18. Ceylon: Only run to date was a fair 2nd in a maiden. Need to find lengths.
19. Kamili: Never gone close yet. Take on.
Comments: I have this race down to three key chances. Peeking Duck is the clear value in the race while Exocet is the one hardest to beat.. but will be a long way back.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 7
Strategy: Peeking Duck – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $13/$4.20
Flemington Race 7 – 2000m – Turnbull Stakes
1. Preferment: Two runs this prep and has failed to fire on both occasions. Goes very well at this track and also this distance, but i’m not sure he has come up this prep as well as last for this distance.
2. Tarzino: Three runs this prep and failed to show anything in all three runs. Everyone is suggesting something big today, but I just can’t have him. Show me something and i’ll back you next start.
3. Happy Trails: Old mate seems to find his feet at this track and distance. He always takes a few runs to really get going but he should be fit enough to go well here.
4. Hartnell: Clearly the horse to beat. Not just a wet tracker despite what everyone is saying. 10-25mm of rain on the radar certainly doesn’t hurt his chances though. Clear top pick here on form.
5. The United States: WFA-G1 winner over 2000m last prep and 2nd in the big one. First up was a nice run 6th putting the writing on the wall for a nice run today. Should have trained on and looks the top hope for the stable going towards cups.
6. Our Ivanhowe: WFA-G1 winner at Doomben last prep over this distance. First up run was nice enough when 5th behind Palentino. Will take a lot from that run and is expected to perform very well here.
7. Set Square: Every chance last start at Caulfield over the 2000m and was simply fairly beaten. Wanting a tougher test today and should get it.
8. Tally: Every chance the first two runs this prep and i’m not convinced he has come up the same horse as we saw last prep in 3YO grade. Needs to show something today to place.
9. Jameka: Huge win last start at Caulfield over 2000m putting the writing on the wall for a Caulfield Cup victory. Will appreciate any rain that comes and will have every possible from out the front in a race lacking in significant speed.
10. Sofia Rosa: Hasn’t come up this prep for mine in comparison to two previous runs. Big step up from 3YO fillies grade to this. Needs to show alot more today.
11. De Little Engine: Good horse but not this grade. Needs further.
12. Second Bullet: Dismiss last start. Needs a much stronger tempo. I liked what I saw first up… very interesting to see just how well he goes here.
13. Raw Impulse: Huge win last start at Morphetville on a wet track. Will appreciate any rain that comes and it’s on the radar.
Comments: This is probably the best line-up i’ve seen in a race for several months and i’m excited to see it take place. Hartnell is certainly the horse to beat and the rain will come for the horse as well. Hartnell and Jameka map to have every chance on the speed while the big chances from the back will be hoping a Second Bullet pushes the tempo.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 9, 13
Strategy: Hartnell to win.
Flemington Race 8 – 1400m – Blazer Stakes
2. Catch A Fire: Ran very well first up to win at MV, but last start looked the goods but failed to finish off in a slowly run 1400m race. May have been ridden too far forward last start.. no risk of that from barrier 18. Will be saved for a late run which is how she is best suited.
4. Coronation Shallan: Race Plates first time. Very average last prep when best run was 2.3L off a win in similar grade. Is a 1600m M-GP3 winner over Azkadellia which is strong form. Can go forward.. never won first up or at track certainly issues.
5. Antelucan: Godolphin runner. First up run was nice but should have won if good enough with that weight. Last start showed little at Caulfield in easier grade. Can’t have.
6. Vibrant Rouge: She is a big fat tease. Strong win two back at Caulfield but back to 1200m last start failed to fire. May really just be wanting a Good surface and 1400m. If gets that, look on.
8. Every Faith: Nice enough type and ran very well first up, well above expectations. Up in distance will help her.. big chance from barrier.
9. Metaphorical: Big run first up behind Don’t Doubt Mamma and blocked for run at a critical stage. Better barrier today for a closer run an Dunn onboard. Big shot.
10. Mangaeress: Came with a nice run from off the speed first up and just missed in the Don’t Doubt Mamma race. 2nd to Lucia Valentina last run of previous prep. Hard to say bad things about. Consistent type.
11. Telopea: Ran nicely last start 3L off in Group 1 company. I liked the run. Step back in class here and well suited from barrier 3.
12. French Emotion: Improved run last start at Caulfield. Step up in class here. Has to improve and really wants the rain not to come.
14. Rockolicious: Nice enough run last three starts but never really threatened for the win. Will run well again today but I can’t have her beating everyone here.
16. NiminyPiminy: Continues to run well this prep without getting a win on the board. Last two starts had every possible but found a few too good. Has to improve.
17. Majestic Lass: Blinkers first time. Good horse on her day but does find a way to throw away races as seen last start. Can run well.
19. Well out of grade.
Comments: Wide open race. I could suggest 6-7 horses with genuine winning chances here.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 17
Strategy: Telopea to win. Smaller bet on Metaphorical also.
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – Paris Lane Handicap
1. Hopfgarten: Listed class winner coming down from QLD. This guy is certainly hard to catch, but his best is more than good enough to put this field away. Goes well first up.
2. Lidari: Went well enough in the Autumn in this grade. Previous prep only run was a win in this grade. Short of his very best distance but should run well.
3. Auvray: Stepping back to 1400m after a prep where he went up to 3200m and showed nothing. Struggle to suggest.
4. Federal: Run well both times this prep in Group company. Stays at 1400m and looks well suited here today with J Mac onboard. Barrier only issue.
5. Akavoroun: Loves it wet and could be the one best suited by a strong downpour if it comes before the race. Coming off a lame run is an issue but long enough between runs.
6. Desert Jeuney: Best seen over further… not the best first up, distance or track stats. Hard to have against this lot today.
7. Tashbeeh: Every chance last start when fairly beaten. Wasn’t suited by the wet track IMO. May get the same here. Has to improve.
8. Yesterday’s Songs: Will be another suited by late rain if it comes. Good first up run and up to 1400m looks ideal here. Big chance.
9. Santa Ana Lane: Continues to run well without winning. Can improve onwards and upwards again today but is questionable over the distance to measure up to this grade.
10. Dan Zephyr: Horrible run second up from on speed. Previous run had every possible chance to run down Redzel. Is he good enough?
11. Ulmann: Talented horse that has shown his very best runs on dry tracks this prep. Can run well again and if the rain misses before the race he is a clear top chance.
12. Le Bonsir: Another solid run last start with a second behind Rokkii but was well beaten. Up in weight doesn’t help today.
13. Zin Zan Eddie: Hasn’t won in two preps and last three runs left a lot to be desired. Best is still short of winning this.
14. The Viriginian: Backed into a crazy price last start and while he ran well, he was never a shot. Won’t like any rain. Will like the distance today.
15. Turdor: On speed runner. Hasn’t come up well enough this prep based on three runs to date.
16. Gracious Prospect: Failed to place in 8 runs. Can’t suggest on current form.
Comments: Wide open race to finish the day. Happy to stick with Akavoroun back to this class especially if the rain comes.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11
Strategy: Akavoroun E/W
