Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on 18 July 2015. Flemington has been frustrating the past two meetings for us with El Greco losing 0.1L at both meetings in our best bets. It’s a very fine line between profit and loss and one of those wins would have our figures looking a little more healthy. All we can do is adjust and in the long run you expect the results to fall your way eventually or at least even out. I’ve been quite sick all week with the flu that has been going around so the form has taken me two days of combined pain to get it written, but there has been no sacrifice on procedures in any way. Our Best Bet for the day is actually one of the most confident bets all year at this venue so hopefully we can turn the Flemington ‘Funk’ around heading into the 2nd half of the year. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 3 Iteration on the Each-Way
Hayes/Dab stable runner that was very impressive last start. Strong tempo 1400m race ridden with no cover due to a split field and continued to find and find and find to the line, fastest last 200m behind a form horse. Up in distance, ideal barrier and stable confirmed no concerns with soft track for the horse today either.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 Herstory to win
This is her race to win today. Has been running very well with a fair bit of bad luck in runs including last start when running into a potential superstar (my opinion) in Volcanic Ash. The quality of horse in this race is sub-standard compared to those she has been racing previously and everything is in her favour today.
Melbourne Best Each-Way
Flemington Race 4 Kaiser Sun on the Each-Way
Very consistent horse that loves the Flemington straight and runs well first up. Trainer suggests no issues or excuses today and everything suits in a race with 3 clear winning chances on my ratings.
Melbourne Best Value
Flemington Race 6 – Valiant Warrior on the Each-Way
Won 6 and placed once from 8 runs to date… this is his hardest test ever, but Admiral form should hold him in good company today and the soft track is ideal.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 8, 12, 14, 16
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 9, 11, 12, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 6, 10, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
A lack of form lines and the soft track today has me very happy to take a step back and just watch these go around today. Obviously I still like to give a pick and Abu Dhabi would be it.
Comments: First race at 11.55am… should be about 2 beers deep by now right?
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Abu Dhabi E/W
Flemington Race 2
Windjammer: First up run found very little at Sale. Hard to back on that run… clearly needs another run today and not sure he is going to make the grade off what looked such an exciting career to come when going well as a 3YO.
Written Up: Well back in class today after some very good runs in much harder quality. Last two runs down the straight were good and soft track today looks more than ideal at the weights. Rates to win.
Bishops Castle: Loves it wet. Last start down the straight ran nicely in harder company. Similar weight to Written Up today as well for that last start race similar finish. Both horses have upside on the wet… on my ratings Written Up just gets the nod over this guy.
Del Prado: Just snuck past Club Command to win a solidly run 1300m race at Bendigo last start. Has to be said that i’m not sure he won it more than Club Command losing it hanging in and going to the worse part of the track. This is a harder class again and back to 1200m not exactly ideal when i think the horse wants further on what i saw last start. Have to respect at very least today.
Arena Rock: Very consistent last prep with 2 wins a running top 5 in all 6 runs that prep. Best runs clearly over further so i’m happy to take her on first up here today.
Handsome Tycoon: Writing was on the wall first prep with strong 3YO runs then a BM-70 7L win on heavy… but start of this prep has certainly taken a long time to find his feet. Beat a good horse at Sale last start in I’m ABlaze and the soft track again will certainly suit… most importantly, runs well down the straight. Stable has taken their time with him and looks well in today.
Benchi Pegasus: Scratched from racing last week and held over to this race today. Won very well last start on Heavy beating home NiminyPiminy who has since franked that form big time. The wetter the better for this guy and clearly the Soft 6 should be more than ideal today to find form. 1200m also looks his dance. Rates well.
La Venta: $2.80 favourite last start at Sandown when beaten with low weight and no real excuse apart from being out the back. Previous form suggests goes very well at the 1200m but best runs have been 1400-1600m and on dryer tracks.
Lord Da Vinci: Ran home nicely at Caulfield last start but the ship had sailed out the front with the winner long gone! Will be hitting the line hard late but probably just misses again if his form is to go by. One that I think you just have to continue taking on and if he wins, so be it. Especially on soft.
Mio Dio: Consistent this prep getting within 1L at best but never looked ‘the winner’ in any race. Only ever won in past on Heavy so can’t see the soft win here.
Grand Gallop: Synthetic win from an on speed position last start, no shock really. Soft track today which has never suited the horse and up in class and 1200m. Take on.
Go De Orpen: BM-64 winner last start… previous start failed to place at Bendigo with every chance in BM-70. Has ability but not top class and need to be at these weights to measure up.
Olly I Am: SPEED HUMP WARNING. 12 runs this prep 0 wins (Last start 6th in BM-50). Beaten a combined 131.5 lengths.
Comments: Tough and wide open race to get the day started. Written Up and Bishops Castle are both worth considering at the top of the weights, but I feel based on raw potential ratings and class that Handsome Tycoon is the horse to beat down the straight today while Benchi Pegasus has the form lines to measure up at double figure odds.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Handsome Tycoon to win. Smaller bet Benchi Pegasus
Flemington Race 3
Distant Dreams: Old mate has been going around on the wet tracks as of late and just hasn’t been as suited as the runs last prep on the Good runs it appears… that being said she obviously won by 5 lengths first up on a heavy, so what would i know? Certainly in the right class to win in today and a soft track is presented.. early on in the day rail should give her every chance to lead all the way if good enough and barrier no issue with her clearly getting the lead.
Every Faith: Finished off okay from the back last start at Caulfield when never a chance behind Charmed Harmony. Typically see these types bounce back very well and with a softer track today looks well suited in this grade. Tricky barrier the big issue today to get a nice spot in running.
Special Miss: Struck through two runs back finally for a win after two average runs in harder company. Back up in class and softer track last start saw her go wide during the race but not finish off. Very hard horse to catch but certainly has the ability with three wins this prep at distance in similar class and weights.
To Be Honest: Very nice win two back at ballarat on the heavy then backed that up last start on the soft to win again over 1600m. Step up to 1800m suitable again today and soft track obviously suits on what we have seen so far. Gone to a new level this prep and rates well.
No Excuses Bec: Two runs to date on soft and never placed, but was not far off either time if we look closer into the detail. Out the back and ran home nicely enough for 3L 8th last start in much harder over lesser distance in a front runner won race at course. Best runs in past have been around this distance a few runs into prep.. looks to be hitting her peak and as long as no worse than a Soft 6, should be fine with the ground. Barrier 3 ideal for a good run and Katie back onboard very positive. Three runs this prep and not been close especially the last two runs… yet form says the horse wants the wet tracks… not won since 2013 says alot.
Let’s Be A Star: A very hard horse to catch, she went very close when 2nd two back behind Minnie Downs… well beaten by To be Honest last start…
Iteration: French import from the Hayes stable. Looking for further than first up 1400m distance… but was a very good run that day. Up to 1800m and 56kg back in this class looks really ideal. Barrier 1 today will see her position just off the speed for a gem of a run. Price looks very reasonable. Only concern is the soft track.
Lilly Dazzler: Last start was a decent enough run to measure up to this grade. Just think she finds a few too good here back on the soft ground where she has never won from 5 starts.
Melaleuca: Continues to run well this prep but hasn’t won the last 4 runs. Last start with 51kg looked to have very chance but couldn’t get closer than 1.8L. This looks a harder class for mine even if it is down in class.
Pass The Post: Every chance last two starts at Sale and 4th both starts. Did have an excuse run last start but none the previous. Can’t see the jump today.
Kept Woman: Need a career peak and then more and more again to measure up today… last start run was fair on a soft track though.. have to respect the horse has ability.
Comments: When looking at this race you have to consider what the limits are for each runner, and the Hayes import Iteration clearly has the highest level potential out of the rest of these. The next thing to consider is where they are going this prep… many horses are stepping up in class or similar class today at the same distances coming off nice runs in those classes while Iteration is down in class today up in distance from a very nice run around some very good mares. The draw is perfect and the only concern for me today is the soft track… we are getting the price to find out. Dabernig gave the horse his tick of approval in the stables weekly video and says soft track no issue.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Iteration Each-Way ($4.40/$2 currently being bet)
Flemington Race 4
Kaiser Sun: Had a great career in the making before an injury took a toll. Still came back and got a win on the board in Open class at MV last prep so it obviously didn’t have THAT much of an affect… but it was certainly telling the last two runs of the prep when pulled up lame in both races and also had breathing issues. I think the sting out today isn’t much of a disadvantage, if anything, it should help the horse today. Loves the straight, top weight.
Our Nkwazi: Hasn’t been seen at Flemington for a while and 1 run for 0 places. Obviously we all saw that win three runs back and hasn’t won since. No issues with two back run and simply out classed last start when out the back at Caulfield and didn’t run on.
The Thief: This is a horse with a huge amount of talent and the horse hasn’t seen a real wet surface like this sense that faithful day back in 2014 when he struck a win down the Flemington straight over a decent field by a big gap. Never won first up a massive issue, but he has the ability to measure up and form around Kaiser Sun in the past and other quality horses such as Magnus Reign is good enough to measure up.
Mr Make Believe: Disappointing first up and even last start on a heavy that should suit failed to place. Certainly takes a few runs to find his best into preps… 7 runs at track for 0 placings hard to consider on… even if there was a good 4th last prep.
Living On A Prayer: Bon Jovi Fan much? Failed to place last start at Open Class over in Canberra. Previous prep did place in open class at Doomben with 52.5kg… gets 57.5kg in this race which is similar to an open class QLD race sprint to be fair. The wetter the better.
King Buddy: Didn’t get a win last prep and only put in one decent run which was fresh first up in open class. 1000m may just be a little too sharp for him based on previous runs later in his career… but has measured up around horses in this type of class in the past if can find that form.
Il Cavallo: Absolute money muncher this horse. Beaten as favourite at 2 of his last 3 runs including first up at Ballarat when $2.40 favourite and failing to place with no excuses. Struggle to suggest here even down in weights.
It’s Poets Day: Finished off last prep real well with wins over this distance in BM-70 and 78 grade. First up got an easy kill but found very little two runs back in open class… last start back to easier than this ran a fair 3rd but was no match for Wild Rain on the soft track… think her best runs are clearly on a good track.
El Prado Gold: Adelaide horse that hasn’t won since 2013… yep you heard that correct. 17 runs in last 3 preps for 0 wins… quite a few 2nds and 3rds.. consistently in the money but finds one too good all the time including good types such as Eclair Big Bang and Dubawi Gold. This is his distance but best seen on Good tracks rather than soft.
Tansy: Nice enough win last start over the 1000m on a soft track at Ballarat. Previous runs do suggest he isn’t a winning chance, but the ratings of that run last start were good enough to consider a winning hope.
Comments: Over the 1000m trip class generally prevails. The E/W price on Kaiser Sun is more than appealing at $5/$1.85 in a very low rating race down the straight. The most surprising price for mine is the Bon Jovi named Living On a Prayer.. after all.. it’s half-way there! Bad jokes aside, the horse has run 2nd to Adebisi up at Doomben and won in open class on heavy track in the past with multiple placings.. the horse has the required ratings to measure up and $30+ looks well overs.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Kaiser Sun on the Each-Way. I’ll also have a smaller win bet on Living on a Prayer.
Flemington Race 5
Our Harmony: Continues to defy the bookies winning three of her last four in good fashion. Only fault was 3L 3rd at Moonee Valley on a soft track… but did handle a soft four runs back winning at this track so i’m not convinced it was the track that day. Up to 1400m certainly a query today, but she does have fitness on her side today. Herstory got the better of her last time they met over 1400m.
HerStory: Ran a very solid 2nd last start at Caulfield behind Volcanic Ash over the 1400m. Back to a wetter track today and expect her to have no issues in running from the mapping just off the speed. Looks very well rated here and is certainly due a win. Much better weighted than Our Harmony.
Lirabird: Meets Our Harmony 3.5kg better off today for 0.8L defeat last start at Caulfield. On breeding should be suited by step up today in distance and track condition should be no issue either.
Domino Vitale: Consistent type with 8 runs this prep and none outside the top 5 so far. Huge step up in class today though on last two runs and not quite sure she has the ability so far to beat this lot.
All About Rhythm: Done everything asked of her to date winning her maiden and then a BM-70… step up in distance and onto turf the obvious questions for this runner.
Amarela: Out the back last start at Caulfield and flew home to run a bold 2nd. Weighted super today compared to competition from that race obviously… but factors against today are clearly the barrier out wide and the distance increase to 1400m and of course the soft track. Not disputing she was blocked for a run two back, it’s just questionable if this surface is the best for the filly even if bred to get it.
She Can Shazam: Hard to dispute her form when you ignore last start run on heavy when didn’t handle the track. Continues to run well in this grade and step back to 1400m today from barrier 4 should be no issues. Horse just simply has to find it’s best and hope for luck in running and hope the gaps close for a few others to win.
Champagne Cocktail: Positioned perfectly last start just off the speed… the pace was obviously on when you look at the times, the winner and 2nd place horses are really good. Was a big run and the form out of that race will measure up going forward… looks a very nice type and well weighted back to 1400m here today. Will get a dream run on the rails, all about getting out in time and running on. Respect.
Dollars Not Sense: Maiden winner only on Pakenham Synthetic.. hard to make much more if it than say, horse won on that and has to make a huge step up to measure up here on that run.
But Perfect: Every chance so to speak first up at Caulfield… up to 1400m a step up straight away 2nd up… maiden only winner in past and while she has been ‘there abouts’ in city grade previously, it’s hard to see the win here based on first up sectionals.
Little Hottie: Maiden only winner, went around single figure quote over 1600m in first prep in 3F-GP2 both runs. $4.50 last start in easier company than this only run of prep over 1400m and failed to place. Struggle to suggest without seeing a run.
Miss Chaparral: Maiden winner. Can forgive last start run when out back and lost a plate on a track where you really need to be on speed. Softer ground will suit.
Taste of Money: Good win four back in much easier company but failed to measure up since. One to take on at the ratings.
Written at Dawn: Breathing issues first up then won a maiden quite well, massive step up required… but have to respect the horse from the in-form Maher stable.. but also have to remember the stable isn’t known for landing these types in these races.
Absolute Gem: Maiden only winner on Synthetic.. can’t give you much more than that apart from take the horse on in this grade.
Hi Spun: The maiden win two back was a long tiem coming, decent type, not this good enough though.
Comments: Herstory will be on speed and very hard to beat today. Rates to win. Champagne Cocktail at the weights looks very well placed also at $20+ currently and also has to be bet.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Herstory to win. Smaller bet Champagne Cocktail.
Flemington Race 6
Rough Justice: Consistent type that simply loves the Flemington straight. Back to the 1100m today is key as I don’t believe he gets the 1200m distance. No issues with the wetter track condition today or the weight. Rates to win and barrier helps.
Valiant Warrior: Very talented Tasmanian runner. First up today and sent over for the trip, he defeated Admiral over the 1200m last prep who is a horse that measured up to our top quality runners in the Autumn. Won 6 from 8 runs to date, both runs on soft tracks were wins. Very well in here as long as he handles the straight.
I Am The General: Had a good prep to date with 2 wins from 5 runs and been there or there abouts every other run. Big step up in class today though. Has won at track previously helps.
Lockroy: Down from Sydney… finally struck a win two runs back at Rosehill over the 1200m. Didn’t handle the heavy so sent down here to target a dryer track clearly. Has ability.
Supido: Lightly raced well fancied galloper. First run ever was 0.8L 2nd to Rough Justice at Caulfield… then beaten next start by Eloping. Easy kill in a maiden last prep and straight for a break… may be under-done today first up compared to say Rough Justice who is five up today and fit.
Lord Esprit: Further back than expected first up and just missed running 2nd to Rough Justice. Much better weighted today as well and fitter second up. Has to be respected.
All Aussie: Easy kill first up in 5 horse maiden. Struggle to suggest straight into this class even if looks a smart type.
Diamond Baroness: Lead and win by nearly 5 lengths first up in a well paying Geelong Synthetic maiden first up from out the front. Appeals on that run but happy to take on in this class down the straight first up. Could surprise though.
IOnlyThinkOfYou: Showed nothing first up at Pakenham. Previous prep won a maiden and measured up in similar class at MV. First time the straight and very hard horse to judge on form.
Harlem Star: Had to be sent back to a R-58 last start to win. Enough said on that today really.
Moment of Pride: Decent enough run last start at Pakenham in Bm-64 grade when 3rd to Spirit Cent running wide and blocked for runs. Certainly has ability and has to be considered.
Mossara Lad: Sent to R-58 grade and won well last start… but questionable having to go to a R-58 to win a race then straight into a 3YO race? Understand it’s taking advantage of ratings, but didn’t win first up in R-58.
Viking Ransom: Hard horse to catch. Looked a good type first prep winning well in Maiden company then did alot wrong next start running well. First up pulled up lame after run when favourite. At his best he can run well.
Bian Hard: Never seen him so impossible to know what to expect outside of market guide.
What a Hoot: Hard to suggest on last two runs… did show enough three back so back to 1200m should suit.. but can’t see him measuring up to beat all these home if i’m honest.
Comments: Wide open race with several key chances in the race at the top of the market. A few progressive types coming through the grades that could surprise with bold runs, but i’m happy to suggest this is a race where the higher weights have the points on the board. Valiant Warrior is a horse i’ve been watching for a while down south and they wouldn’t be sending him over under-done. Won 6 and placed once from 8 runs to date… this is his hardest test ever, but Admiral form should hold him in good company today and the soft track is ideal.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 11
Strategy: Valiant Warrior Each-Way
Flemington Race 7
Instrumentalist: Two average trials leading into this. Clearly needs the run today at this distance as found best last prep over 2400m. No thanks at weights.
Streets Away: Goes okay enough at this distance in the past including a win at this track two preps back.. been almost a year between runs and last prep failed to get within 7 lengths. While this is the trainer that can turn them around, I can’t see it at the weights.
Zuma Roc: Very poor last start at Caulfield first up over this distance. Previous prep only run was a very good win so no sure what to make of first up run. May just want it with less speed? I guess you have to forgive last start but even so i think others are preferred today.
Charmed Harmony: Very strong win, painless in the end last start at Caulfield on a Good 4 track…. which raced more like a soft 5 IMO. Will get a wet enough track again today and over the 1400m distance this is ideal. No issues with the barrier either, will be able to take his time to get to the front and just keep rolling.
LuckyI’mBareFoot: Returned to his best this prep it seems with a nice heavy track win three back and soft 6 win last start. This is MUCH harder class though and maps further back than i’d want to be to be a winning hope today.
Pago Rock: Every chance the last few runs but been well found out. Up to 1400m a throw at the stumps really… i can’t see it here.
Royal Island: Hard to rate the first two runs this prep when had every chance first up and was very poor last start. Has in the past had no issues on either of those surfaces so finding it hard to respect back to firmer today.
Text’n Hurley: Failed to win so far this prep and had 50 days off to freshen up. Two back run would see her measure up well enough here but very poor barrier today a massive issue.
Correggio: A long time between drinks and last win was over 1800m. Can’t see at this distance.
Electric Fusion: Last win two preps back was over 2000m. Last prep failed to place in 7 runs… struggle to suggest.
Club Command: Freshen up did the trick and with top weight ran very well at Bendigo in easier class over 1300m. No issues with surface today and has a very good record at the track. Nice barrier and off 51kg with claim looks well in… will sit close enough.
Vizhaka: Failed to measure up at the top level in the past. Last prep found nothing and previous prep best runs were over further. One i want to take on.
Albonetti: I have a very high opinion of this horse. The wetter the better for her… but do get the feeling will be suited with a run under her belt over slightly further say 1600-2000m like shown last prep.
Flyingconi: Looked to be ready to improve two back but then last start found nothing at all. Struggle to suggest on what we have seen this prep.
Khutulun: Eye-catching run last start at Caulfield when came home strong late from out the back. Will find best over further this prep…Maps well enouigh with D Oliver onboard though.
Free of Doubt: Just not going well enough this prep to suggest he is in for a win today. A few more runs required to back.
Comments: When all is said and done, i’m expecting we will get a Good 4 to Soft 5 track and Charmed Harmony looks well suited based on tempo and class around him. The $2.80 being bet is backable, but on my ratings I wouldn’t go anything below $2.55.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 8, 12, 14, 16
Strategy: Charmed Harmony to win.
Flemington Race 8
Count of Limonade: Safe to say he could very little last prep to suggest we should be paying attention today. Previous prep he did beat a form horse in Prince of Penzance on a soft at Moe in Open grade which has to be considered, but with just 1 win first up in the past, it’s hard to respect this horse over the 1600m today at this track off 61kg. The track condition is the main thing in his favour.
At First Sight: First up over 1400m actually wasn’t too bad from the back when ran on for 7th.. clearly beaten but not a terrible run at all. Up to 1600m but certainly wanting further on previous form… not sure if he wants the soft track but it shouldn’t be a disadvantage IMO. Consider a minor player if the tempo is as strong as we think it will be.
Lord of Brazil: Backing up after an only fair run at Flemington last week… a repeat of the two previous runs… stable obviously believes horse is going well enough to warrant the run back in class with the wet track. If he is going to get another career win in this class, conditions couldn’t get any better.
Henwood: He ran very well last start at Caulfield over the 1400m when 3rd to Charmed Harmony sticking on with that hot tempo out the front. Back in class 60kg and wetter track… has the ability to win in this type of condition but certainly doesn’t win out of turn and just 1 win from 13 at track says alot. Wide barrier may see him further back than expected or much closer.
Majestic Duke: Continues to put the wins together. Won 6 of his last 8 races so it’s amazing to think they bet $40+ two starts ago on a wet track which was ideal at Moonee Valley after a fail at this course the previous run when overracing not ridden out the front. Won last start beating a quality field here and goes up in weight as a result. Wins are on the board and can continue with that form today.
Kareeming: Won 2 and placed in 4 of his last 6 runs… so has been super consistent as of late. Very hard to understand this move today to step back from 2500m to 1600m though… you have to respect the horses class and ability to win… but i’m not sure here at all.
Lake Sententia: Four runs to date this prep and yet to get within 6.5L. Horse had a year and a half off for a reason and doesn’t look to be turning around the form any time soon… much better than the weights suggest today but form suggests we can’t be on.
River’s Lane: Last run at course and similar distance was a huge priced win in January.. been running and running since and yet to get a win since that day. This looks a slightly harder race on paper but the horse has gone close 3 of his 4 4 runs and wasn’t disgraced two back at track either. Never won on soft.
Clanga’s Glory: Turned the form around last start back to Flemington. Last win was at this course and distance in harder company actually with 1.5kg less onboard deep into a prep as well. The writing is on the wall for him today and from barrier 2 you can expect a slightly closer to the speed run. Most importantly, Soft track will see him finish it off.
Stratigraphy: Continues to jump poorly and getting out the back which will have him out the back today with all the early pace. Will need alot of luck to be in the finish today. Has been running okay enough but struggle to suggest personally with racing style in this race.
Abbasso: Been putting in consistent runs this prep and had to go back in grade to Sale to get a win on the board. Step up in class today and weighted accordingly today… certainly suited by the track condition and tempo expected today, only issue will be getting forward enough for a handy spot… the ride wins it for him if he is going to win it today IMO.
Actuariat: Won 2nd up this prep over 1400m at course in 3YO class this prep… then placed next 3 starts in 3YO and 3YO-LR races in Adelaide and Melbourne. Barrier will see him further back than i’d be wanting to be today on such a horse in this class today. Certainly has ability and is worth considering, but the $3.50 looks horrible unders to me.
Pepin Hoaks: Not even going to consider him here today based on last prep and two runs this prep.
Yenhaab: English import looking for 2000m+… failed on a soft track (WHAT?!?) first up at Sale… struggle to suggest…. but Quaddie blowout target
Godfrey: Not going to be winning this today based on last prep class and first up run.
Comments: I have to take on Actuariat from the barrier today in this open grade today. Generally speaking, time and time again we see 3YO’s take a step up, go around as favourite and more often than not, fail to get the victory. I’m expecting the same again today from the tricky gate. Henwood, Majestic Duke and Abbasso all have claims at the top of the market around the favourite while Clanga’s Glory at the $14s being bet certainly has the writing on the wall to go close today. Clanga’s Glory finds himself 5kg better off against Majestic Duke compared to two back run has to be considered as a major factor and with the price of $14/$3.75 on offer, clearly the best priced horse in the race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 9, 11, 12, 14
Strategy: Clanga’s Glory Each-Way
Flemington Race 9
Bagman: Huge run last start at course and distance when 2nd in a race where the winner was just off the pace. Smaller field today so won’t get so far back and will have conditions to suit. Looks well rated today and will have ever chance.
Crafty Cruiser: Never won at this distance is a big query for old Crafty. Very disappointing effort last start also it has to be said coming off a win. Rare to see him come back in distance and win so i have to take him on today.
Venture On: Too far back last start from the poor barrier compared to previous two starts. Huge questions over if the horse is wanting 2000m as well today for mine is the massive issue we have to consider for this class.
Freshwater Storm: Never placed at crack certainly a concern for this bloke who reserves his best runs for Caulfield and has gone around short priced here in the past failing. Best runs have been over shorter distances also for mine… did produce a very nice run last start on the soft track and conditions will suit today again.
Secessio: Blinkers on last start and went around a massive price on preferred softer ground for a very good 2nd. Those expecting the $200+ on offer last start will be fairly disappointed with $20s then. Goes well at this distance and return to form hard to argue with.
Trade Commissioner: Shown very little to suggest he can win this today the last four runs compared to others in the race. Did his best over 1400m at start of prep and 4th to Landlocked was still a step behind this also for mine. Never placed on a wet track.
Lightenuff: Expected leader today… been a long time between drinks for this bloke… this is obviously his distance and likes a soft track, but shown nothing too date this prep.
Diamonds At Noon: Questionable if this horse should be racing in city grade at the top level still. Did run 2nd to Lightenuff three preps back but all runs around that have been open class country grade.
Clemo: Missed the start, out the back and ridden with a bit of luck brilliantly to score an impressive win last start over the 1600m. Will he get the 2000m? Not sure.. but based on last start you would believe so. Will he get a wet track? No idea based on never meeting a wet track. Will he measure up? This is his hardest test to date. Quite a few questions to be answered today at the price.
Shikarpour: Never got a run last start at Flemington and was a very good eye-catching run all things considered. Most importantly today he gets a soft track and will have the opportunity to show what he can do.
Black Tomahawk: Every chance last two starts at the distance in similar company.. did get a win three back in easier company but jury is certainly out in this class.
Cuban Fighter: Maiden only winner from 15 starts. Not sure what else i can say… did run 2nd 3.3L to Authoritarian on a soft track three back over 2800m… clearly wanting it wet wet wet and distance.
Comments: The rage is all around Clemo today, but there are more questions that need to be answered for the run today than any previous race the horse has been in. It’s rare that they make this grade jump up in class on a surface they have never contested and for that reason i’ll take the horse on today. Bagman is the clear standout… he doesn’t win out of turn, but he will have every chance today based on mapping and surface condition.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 6, 10, 11
Strategy: Bagman to win.
