Welcome to The Profits preview for Flemington on 17 December 2016. It was good to get the runs on the board last night with our Best bet of the day Goathland bolting in, but we really need to step up our efforts coming to the end of the year and land more than just one bet every week. We return to Flemington where there are a few decent bets on the card today and we look to get some momentum heading into the Christmas break. As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 – Mihany – 2.75 units @ $3.50 to win. Loyalty Man – 1.25 units @ $7.00 to win.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 3 – Miss Wonderland – 3 units @ $1.95
Best Value Bet
Flemington Race 5 – Puccini – 1 unit Each-Way @ $5.50/$2.05
Other Value Bet
Flemington Race 6 – Grane – 0.25 units Each-Way @ $51/$10.4
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 12, 13
Leg Two: 6, 10, 11, 13, 15
Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 9
Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1100m – Christmas Season Plate
1. American Genius: Ran nicely down the Flemington straight to open his account in third and then in the 2YO classic went around favourite and found another two too good. Stable have a big opinion of him, but he really hasn’t measured up to it by blowing fields away.
2. Dr Homer: First starter for the Bodey stable.. only had 1 winner in the past 12 months… Brian Higgins onboard… 1 win at this track in the past 12 months.
3. King’s Authority: First starter for the Price stable and another Snitzel colt. Blinkers on. Well in, in the betting today.
4. Quick Spin: Trialed nicely enough 0.5L 2nd behind Join IN at Stony Creek. Was a fair lead in run… but no money in the market for this colt just yet.
5. Regal Embrace: Another Hayes runner that has been on the drift. First run to date.
6. Totten: Very well backed Godolphin runner who won his last start trial over 900m on a Soft 5 track. Has to be respected and has been well backed after markets opened.
7. Aspen Angel: Meech takes the ride for the first Americain bred runner. Attracted a few bets at the opening price and is one to keep an eye on.
8. Baduzzi: Foxwedge filly that is well bred for a stable that continues to have horses go around at under the odds on reputation alone. $12 into $8 in early markets.
9. French Skyline: Two heavy track trials leading in back in September and didn’t look overly impressive. Dryer track and a few months between the trials… on the drift.
Comments: Wide open race. No form lines to take to the bank. American Genius will certainly run a fine race at very least and handles the straight. But an inside barrier isn’t ideal. Totten looks the one to take here off the trials.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Totten to win.
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – Beachside Handicap
1. Hijack Hussy: Three runs in this prep. Showed her best run last start in the Port Fairy Cup and i’d expect her to improve significantly onwards from that run off a strong tempo. Will be getting back and running on… the claim of Mertens will be critical to her chances. Can come over the top of them late.
2. Mossbeat: Solid win three back over Judges (who beat Hijack Hussy last prep) at Cranbourne. Horrible in G3 company two back at Sandown on what had to be a forgive run and was much better from out the back wide no cover the trip at Pakenham when 3rd. Martin remains onboard and she gets in well at the weights.
3. Lady Selkirk: Ignore first up when just there for a run around and up to 1400m today where she will be much better suited in blinkers, we can expect a strong run from the Lady today with 54kg. Respect and expect a very strong run.
4. Fellin the Love: Two solid runs leading into last start but she really failed to finish off with the slow tempo put on out front. Looking for a more genuine test today and finds herself well enough in at the weights.
5. Labdien: Waller runner first up today. Never won at this distance in the past but goes okay first up on good tracks… On last prep form I find it hard to be on first up here.
6. Jacqui’s Joy: Last prep failed to get close to a win but found her best over similar distances in the past. Two runs in this prep.. only average first up but last start wasn’t too bad behind Cheeky Babe. I have to take on.
7. La Speciale: Not terrible first up but didn’t exactly impress. Huge step up in class again here and only up 100m. On previous best runs yes she is a chance but i’m not convinced on the first up run even with the speed on.
8. Darcy’s Law: Two runs this prep and has failed to place on both occasions. Up to 1400m but not much difference than last start. Struggle to suggest only a week and a bit between runs.
9. Tycoon Beauty: Huge step up in class after placing the last two starts at BM-64 grade races. Can’t see this.
10. Gold Fontein: Maiden winner last start at Wang in a solid enough time. Looked good first up also. Obviously going well but this is a massive step up in class. May be a good place price.
Comments: At the prices, I’d have to lean towards Lady Selkirk on the each-way here.. Mossbeat will certainly run well and Feelin the Love looks to be overs also.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Lady Selkirk E/W
Flemington Race 3 – 1100m – ISCA Handicap
1. Miss Wonderland: Not a terrible barrier today but would have preferred one slightly wider down the straight. G3 third behind Spright and Super Too. Clearly a horse with ability and goes very well down the straight. Rates to be hard to beat.
2. Ponte Roma: Solid win last start at Moonee Vallley just getting the win. Step up in class again and first time down the straight.
3. Divertente: Two wins in a row going through the grades… led last start at Pakenham and was run down late in what was a very fast run race. Certainly has ability… firs time down the straight though and the last start run showed a few flaws.
4. Sister Kitty Mac: Maiden win and BM-64 win to back that up at Werribee in what looked an average time from on speed. Short turn around and has to improve lengths.
5. Balayage: Never in it wide all the way last start at Moonee Valley. Boxed on nicely enough. First up win was only fair. Has to improve.
6. Millinery: Hayes stable runner that won well in maiden company first up at Geelong. Two weeks between runs.. handled the straight fine last prep and looks a type that shouldn’t have too much of an issues backing up on it here. Good type.
7. Siren’s Reward: Every chance in my humble opinion last start with the dream run and just missed. First time down the straight and up in class. Has to improve onwards again.
8. Airino: Maiden horse. 985m 2nd last start in a maiden. Hard to suggest to win this and money hasn’t come.
9. Not Approved: Maiden 2nd at Moe first up. Quite a few weeks between runs and this is a bit of a throw at the stumps.
10. Toorak Rose: Heavy 10 maiden winner in her first prep but failed on a Good track the next start and on heavy the last start. Hard horse to get a guide on but does have ability.
11. Dimoshot: Maiden. Horrible last prep… trial wasn’t great heading into this. Not for me.
Comments: While there is a load of ‘potential’ in this race, the majority of the field are unproven at this level. Miss Wonderland looks the real deal and has the runs on the board and looks a very good bet today.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Miss Wonderland – 3 units @ $1.95
Flemington Race 4 – 1400m – Planet Ruler Handicap
1. Snitzson: Very awkward barrier today from the direct outside for a horse that is expected to sit midfield. Will need a very good ride from Dylan Dunn to get a gun spot throughout without being caught 3-wide the trip. Clearly a top class horse on the last start quality win and times.
2. Ballet Master: Wide barrier but will be pushing forward to lead. Nice run 2nd last start 1.8L behind Snitzson at Pakenham and previous run was also solid. Will run nicely here.
3. Sassoon: Very good win first up at Bendigo from out the back in a very strong prize money race. Missed the start significantly and still won well on what was a very fast run race. Clearly a classy horse. Big chance.
4. Set the Bar High: Slowly run and won 1400m win first up at the bool. Big step up in grade and class from a nice barrier.
5. Soho Ruby: Two starts for two wins this prep including a win last start at Sandown over a nice type in Sweet Varden even when ran wide and was against her own pattern. Has to improve onwards and upwards but does have some ability.
6. Styleman: Expect him to sit closer to the speed today after a fair run 3rd to Wise Hero last start. Strong 1200m win three back at Pakenham… failed to fire here two back.
7. Widgee Turf: Easy maiden win last prep. First up this prep out the back and didn’t exactly run on. Has to improve.
8. Gruosi: Took three starts but finally got the win last start at Wangaratta from on speed. Nice barrier and will certainly be running well, but this is another step up in class and looks slightly beyond him for mine at this stage.
9. La Volt: Average maiden win first up and failed to show top class ability since. Hard to suggest here for mine.
10. What a Shock: Horrible last start at course over 1200m. 2L off Wise Hero at previous start. Better around a bend today but certainly has to find lengths on the last start run.
11. Atlantic Express: Maiden winner two back before being well beaten last start at Pakenham behind Snitzson. Hard to suggest.
12. Monajet: Maiden winner this prep on heavy… been running in open grade since and not running badly at all from off the speed. Jumping well today I wouldn’t be surprised to see her run a cracking race at the weights.
Comments: This is a wide open race. Snitzson maps for a horrible run and I couldn’t jump in at the odds even with the stable confidence. Sassoon is the most interesting runner but I just can’t take the price on offer when there is better value around. Monajet is the horse I have my eye on from a positive barrier today back to 3YO grade down a long straight.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Monajet E/W
Flemington Race 5 – 2500m – Skipton Handicap
1. Puccini: Ran a very strong 2nd behind Pilote D’essai at Pakenham when did a lot wrong and had to do a load of work… huge run. Back in class here and similar weight is suitable. Expect him to be forward again today and hard to hold out.
2. Lord van Percy: Every chance last start and just simply well beaten on the day by Puccini and a few others. Clearly has to find another level he hasn’t shown to date.
3. Boom Time: Continues to run well and win but this is a big step up in grade and also up in distance. I’m not convinced this is what his looking for today and I have to take him on at the price.
4. Hale Soriano: WFA runner imported from France with his best at 3000m+. Goes on all surfaces and while last start wasn’t great at all, up to 2500m suits significantly today with the Mertens claim also. Well weighted.
5. Shamkiyr: Another Weir stayer in the race. Wasn’t terrible 7th two back at Flemington but last start every chance and just not good enough. Unknown really up to the 2500m.
6. Cinnamon Carter: Never seems to run a poor race but 2500m is short of her very best at this level. Hard to have and needs further and lesser class.
7. Crafty Cruiser: Old mate goes well at course and distance but hasn’t won since late 2015 on a soft track here in easier grade. His best is behind him.
8. Thunder Teddington: Very disappointing up to the 2500m last start coming off what looked a good run the run prior. Can we forgive and back again today? I’m not sure of that.
9. Four Carat: 3200m and 3000m back to 2500m today a bit of a worry, but did run Kinema to 0.3L three runs back at this course over 2800m. Certainly has ability but has to show it here. Newitt jumps on and off Thunder Ted.
10. Arianne: Very hard horse to catch and hasn’t won since late 2015. Won 1 from 20 on good tracks. Hard to suggest at this distance.
11. Prestbury Park: Showed large improvement last start over 2400m in MUCH easier grade than the previous two runs. Clearly has to find much more again to place here.
12. Amortise: Couldn’t win in BM-58 grade last start at Sale. Hard to suggest a place here.
13. Welcome Stryker: BM-70 winner last start at Bendigo. Huge step up in class here. Does look actually an okay chance to run well here but at the weights i’d prefer others.
Comments: The markets certainly have the chances right, but there are also one or two at bigger odds that have to be considered. Puccini is a huge price today off that last start run and will run very well. Hale Soriano is one that can improve big time here at odds and can run well while Four Carat also looks over the odds if runs up to three back. Puccini has been there or there abouts all prep and will run well again here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Puccini – 1 unit Each-Way @ $5.50/$2.05
Flemington Race 6 – 1100m – Fiesta Star Handicap
1. General Truce: Hasn’t won since a surprise soft track win here 6 months back in what was a similar type of race. Recent form not good enough.
2. Beau Rada: Ran very well first up from out the back at Moonee Valley to get within 1.4L of the win. 6 runs 0 places at track in the past but was 1.4L off Supido last time down the straight and 3L off Malaguerra the run before.
3. Grane: Horrid first up. 1.8L 2nd to Malaguerra last prep over 1000m at course on record. Clearly for mine needs the run today but more than a month and a half between runs, expect better here.
4. Odyssey Moon: Huge last prep especially down the straight when measuring up to this level and beyond. Goes well first up but certainly a query on the ground with 0 wins from 10 starts on Good tracks.
5. Shakespearean Lass: Very strong win first up at huge odds. Time was sound and bodes well for 2nd up. Has won down the straight in the past and while she comes in very well at the weights, there has to be a query over the jockey down the straight.
6. Bullpit: Seems to always run well down the straight. Four runs in this prep and well beaten on all occasions though. Hard to have for mine.
7. Decision Time: Had about 20 runs last prep and failed to break through. First up today and while he goes well first up and is a Group 3 winner, it’s hard from the barrier to suggest him here.
8. Lonrockstar: Goes nicely at Flemington on past efforts. Also goes well first up, but he is getting on in years. Has to be at his best.
9. Zupacharged: Finished off last prep being beaten by horses in this race and around horses in this race. 6 runs for 0 wins at track but does go well down the straight. Never won first up or in this class.
11. Danuki: Three runs for three wins in a row. Huge step up in class today though and well out of his normal grade. Unplaced only other run at track in the past.. clearly going the right way about things this prep though.
12. Runsati: Nice enough run 2nd up at Moonee Valley when run down late in the piece. Solid enough run and should run better here today. Goes well down the straight off a strong tempo and a win wouldn’t be a total shock.
13. Sunday Escape: Showed big improvement last start at Moonee Valley. Has won at course and distance previously. Off the last start run you have to expect a good run.
14. I’m Ablaze: Old mate goes well but this is far beyond him especially 2nd up. take on.
Comments: Wide open race down the straight. Shakespearean Lass on form is the horse to beat. I think Grane has the X Factor of all the runners here on best runs in the past down the straight and at $51 is worth a stab in the dark.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 12, 13
Strategy: Grane – 0.25 units Each-Way @ $51/$10.4
Flemington Race 7 – 2000m – Tauto Handicap
1. Doctor Care: Two runs this prep and both were horrible. Last prep beat a classy horse in Real Love over 2000m. Clearly has to improve on previous runs.
2. Honorius: Ran quite well two back at Kyneton but that isn’t exactly a form race I want to be following onwards. Well beaten last start. Hard to suggest here.
3. Dance of Heroes: Waller runner that was actually not bad two back at Rosehill but the other three runs this prep were average at best. Mixes his form lines. Tough at the weights i’d have thought.
4. Loving Home: Nice enough win last start at Traralgon but only beat home Use The Lot that day. Previous runs this prep was well beaten by some types that wouldn’t be going close here. Has to improve.
6. Encosta Line: Three back won well at Sandown over 1800m and wasn’t terrible two back when beaten 1L by Boom time. Last start back to 1600m failed to fire and up to 2000m helps again. Has to improve to win but will go well.
7. London Fog: Wodonga 2nd last start off a Geelong win. Been going well through the grades over the lower distances and steps up to a more appropriate distance. Has to measure up to the highest level today though.
8. Sir Laszlo: Three runst his prep and not gone close. Hard to suggest up in grade when 8 runs for 1 placing in this.
9. Temps Voleur: Horrible last start at Traralgon. Two back nice enough 2nd to Encosta Line. Has ability but never placed at track and has to improve.
10. Gallic Chieftain: Clearly the form horse of the race. Ran well leading into last start and improved onwards to score at Pakenham over Goathland who has come out and blown away a field since in higehr class. Very well in at the weights and clearly the one to beat. Only negative is the barrier.
11. Flying Light: Goes well over this distance based on previous preps runs. Beaten favourite the last two starts heading into this over shorter but continues to improve on each run. Have to respect his ability – can run well today.
12. Gilchrist: Gilly looks well suited third up and over a suitable 2000m distance. I’m just not convinced third up that he will be peaking and his best will be over the 2500m range… but he will enjoy the good track.
13. Prima: I really liked his run last start at Pakenham when claimed in the straight but just kept on finding to the line. Would appreciate a slower tempo today and gets in well at the weights.
14. Zadon: Griffiths runner that hasn’t won in the last two preps. Well beaten last start at bendigo 2.3L 3rd but up in distance today. Has to improve at class.
15. Payroll: CL1 7L winner over 1400m then well beaten 2.4L 4th last start over 1600m. Hard to suggest over the 2000m.
16. Get The Picture: Ran home nicely enough from too far back last start at Pakenham, but has to improve onwards and upwards again even at the weights. Nolen jumps off.
17. King of England: Loves to run poorly when fancied and even worse when not… Not in this grade.
Comments: Gallic Chieftain at the opening price was a steal, but at the $2.7 and under there isn’t a strong play here with the horse rated between $2.2 and $2.6 depending on scratchings.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 6, 10, 11, 13, 15
Strategy: Gallic Chieftain to win.
Flemington Race 8 – 1600m – Chanteclair Handicap
1. Kenjorwood: Old mate continues to run well, but he was no match for Mihany last start at Pakenham and I can’t see that changing today.
2. Burning Front: Ran a bold race last start over 1400m at Pakenham when found his way to the front a little too early. Never won at track in the past a big concern from 7 starts when you consider the horse has won 11 of 39! Goes well at this distance and will run well today.
3. Mihany: Big win last start at Pakenham over this distance in a fast time. Bayliss keeps the ride and even though he is up in weight here, he is still very well in. Hard to beat.
4. Leica Day: Two wins over much further before a fail at Ararat last start. Back to 1600m today… not for mine.
5. Loophole: Well beaten first up behind Mihany and even though he is much better in at the weights, he will need to find a length or two at the minimum to measure up.
6. Kourkam: Nice enough run first up behind Loyalty Man 4th at Wodonga. Stays at the same distance and probably needs further.
7. Loyalty Man: Ran well 2nd behind Boom Time at Flemington two back and then scored last start at Wodonga over 1600m beating London Fog. Goes well at this distance and goes well at this track also. Nice barrier. Looks a key threat.
8. Artie’s Shore: Well beaten first up at the bool. Up to 1600m where better suited by 4 runs at this track for 0 places and 4 runs in this class for 0 places makes it hard to back him.
9. Un de Sceaux: Ran very well the past two starts off solid tempos on both occasions. Nicely weighted here today and looks one of the key chances.
10. Tucano: Looks better suited over further than this on past preps runs. Failed to fire first up and needs to show much more today to place.
11. Manhattan Boss: Been off a fair while before the first up win over 1500m. Last prep best was seen 2000m+ so he does look outclassed here but can run a nice race.
Comments: Only really four ‘key’ chances on my form with 1-2 outside of that with the potential to win. The two clear standouts on my ratings are Mihany and Loyalty Man and we can bet both for a very nice price.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 9
Strategy: Mihany – 2.75 units @ $3.50 to win. Loyalty Man – 1.25 units @ $7.00 to win.
Flemington Race 9 – 1100m – Scamanda Handicap
1. Stellar Collision: Dead last first up this prep at Moonee Valley when well backed $2.50 favourite in harder class than this. One run down the straight in the past for a 3.3L 3rd when 2nd favourite that day. Just have to forgive first up run and take on trust.
3. Angry Gee: Ran well first up at Pakenham when fairly beaten by Tykiato over the 1000m. Can improve 2nd up today but doesn’t look to have the class as other runners here today for mine.
4. Bon Rocket: His very best is more than good enough having won here in the past. Clearly best has been over further in the past 1400m+… but he can run well here at the distance. Others preferred though for the win.
5. Danger Close: Has won at course in the past and goes well down the straight when in form. Horrible first up is the issue but we do know he has the ability.
6. Roman Fizz: Two wins in the last two starts at Pakenham and Moonee Valley. Good rides both starts and not far up in class today. Have to respect.
7. Domesday Warrior: Not the best horse first up, nor over this distance having had the majority of his wins at 1300m+. Tough ask in this class.
10. Wolf Cry: Strong maiden winner after placing in G2 behind Exosphere (beaten 6L) as a 2YO. Last prep wasn’t terrible then 3.7L 5th in Group races and 4.2L 5th behind Press Statement.. but clearly has to have trained on.. has the ability
11. Good Offa: Runs well enough at this track. Last prep got a win in easier grade at Pakenham not beating a lot. Goes okay first up but clearly has to find his best to win this.
14. What a Hoot: Well beaten the past two starts in easier grade of race. Couldn’t win a BM-58 three back as favourite. Hard to suggest.
15. My Survivor: BM-58 winner two back. Well beaten last start though in BM-58 grade. No.
Comments: This is one of the poorest fields of the day. Stellar Collision on the horses best form is clearly the horse to beat here while Wolf Cry living up to it’s potential would run well here also. Roman Fizz is over the odds again running well this prep and Bon Rocket is the other class runner here. At the prices and from the barrier, Stellar Collision has to be backed.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 10
Strategy: Stellar Collision to win.
