Welcome to The Profits form guide for 16 January 2016 at Flemington. Back at the home of racing in Victoria, Flemington. There are several key races down the straight today giving us some solid racing on the card. A word of warning, the majority of this card looks very hard so bet with caution and stick to just a few races for the day. Confidence is high on our best of the day and there is a bit of value around that we hope to catch! As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 – Second Bullet for 3 units @ $4.50. Back Allergic for 1 unit @ $5.50
Second Bullet’s last start win was huge and is the stand out coming into this race. We are backing Allergic as the main danger as well. Very keen on this play.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 2 – Iteration for 1.5 units @ $5.50/$2.00 Each-Way.
French import with runs on the board. Expected to come back even better this prep and the key today is the Good track condition that is required.
Best Value Bet
Flemington Race 5 – Smart Dart for 0.75 units @ $16/$4.75
I have a big opinion of this horse. The most open race of the day, I’ll be waiting until race time to back the horse as I can’t see them backing Smart Dart in. Will be well suited to the tempo and straight track.
Big Value Bet
Flemington Race 3 – Liquido for 0.25 units @ $85/$14
Showed enough class and relevant sectionals for me to be playing here at the huge odds on offer. Win wouldn’t shock me and I think the horse has claims over a place for sure here.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 7, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 8, 9, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
1. Hey Doc: Won a fairly strong 2Y-SWP race over in Adelaide first up. Highest prize money winner for a reason.
2. Bringaroo: Did so much wrong when very well backed first up at Moonee Valley over racing and hanging out. Put it all together last start though at Geelong on a softer track and absolutely killed them. Hard to measure up times due to 1130m race.
3. Moshway: First up run down the straight was solid enough but certainly wasn’t good enough. Well beaten next start from out the back at Flemington. Has to improve to place.
4. Dot Painting: Solid hit out first up at Caulfield when 2.8L 3rd behind a very good type in Hell of an Effort. Didn’t show me enough to suggest the improvement needed here.
5. Lessyd: Well backed last start at Geelong off two decent enough runs. Beaten 4.3L by Bringaroo and hard to see the turn around here.
6. Unresolved: Unseen market drifter. D Oliver onboard though.
7. Climate: Well backed favourite first up at Caulfield. May not have handled the track but breeding suggested she should. Another Smerdon favourite goes under. Respect enough at weights.
8. Sprung Dancing: Unwanted first up at Flemington and ran accordingly. Has to improve.
9. Queen Magdalene: Well backed Hayes first starter. Unseen at the track. Market tells the story.
Comments: Bringaroo looks the real deal to me and is the on top runner to beat.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Bringaroo to win.
Flemington Race 2
1. Whistle Baby: Out the back last start after a slow jump and never got close. Did run on okay enough and has to be considered again today back to Flemington where she has a nice record. Won in harder company two back. Good barrier.
2. Dig A Pony: Goes okay first up. Back to form last prep finally getting a win back on the board. Has nice form in the past at this track. Best runs in past on slower tracks but did win last run on a good track off a hot tempo. Barrier 3, wouldn’t be shcoked if they do much for a midfield position… need to be at her best to win this first up.
3. Vital Importance: WA horse. Two places in FM-LR class before a 6th in Group 3 company last time out. Has obvious ability on runs.. this is about the ride grade you would imagine, but we have found in the past it takes a very good WA runner to measure up to the hard task presented by the handicapper on them over here. Barrier sucks.
4. Iteration: French import… she hurt our pocket last prep when unlucky to not win first up at course and distance blocked for runs and then getting run down the next start on a soft track. I think she is best suited to a firmer track on form lines and she gets that here. Her best run last prep was over this distance first up in harder company, so a step back here from a good barrier with a lack of tempo in the race should see her have every possible chance on speed.
5. Miss Softhands: Toughed it out first up at Sandown when raced wide just off the speed. D Oliver takes the ride back.. first run at track and last start in this class didn’t measure up.. but i think she is certainly going the right way to run well.
6. Blendwell: Never won on a Good track previously. Never won first up and never raced in this class. Was consistent last prep never missing a place from 7 runs. Two of three wins were on heavy.
7. Written: Looks the leader but did go back last start at Caulfield from a wide barrier. Will be on speed you would imagine and will be able to run the race to suit.
8. Boundary: Ignore last start and rate on previous best runs. Has the ability to run well but obviously has to improve to be winning this.
9. Ginali: Maiden win over 1500m on record but best runs last prep were over 2400m. Didn’t win first up last prep and obviously looking for further on form.
10. Domino Vitale: Going well enough on two runs this prep. Up in distance suits but best will come over 1600m based on last prep.
Comments: Mapping plays a big part in betting here today for me. I think Iteration will have come back better than we saw last prep and is the class runner of the field. Most importantly, Written is the only other speed runner in the race and there is a strong possiblity we get the speed we desire.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Iteration for 1.5 units @ $5.50/$2.00 Each-Way.
Flemington Race 3
1. Chamarel: Weir runner. Had been campaigning up north in Sydney as a Godolphin runner – sold for 75k. 3.8L 3rd to Vancouver on his record. Won a CL2 last start… obviously this is harder.
2. Tyrannize: Good win first up beating a nice horse in Zurprising. Then went to FLemington and won well down the straight. Huge forgive run last start at Caulfield when got too far back and over raced. Much better suited here.
3. Twisting Typhoon: Ran on well from the back at MV last start for 3rd behind Rocky Boomboa. Can improve but does need to prove himself here.
4. Lahqa: No disgrace last start at Flemington when found 2 too good down the straight. Up in class but based on previous runs looks well suited to this.
5. Pattern: Hickmott runner. Bred for distance but will get there in time obviously. Very strong maiden win first up. Much harder this but looks to have a load of ability.
6. Recalcitrata: Maiden winner two back. Beaten favourite last start at Sandown when they ran it slow out front. May want a hotter tempo today.
7. Artie’s Party: Well back in class here. Two back run at Ballarat was quite good but last start did alot wrong at MV when running last. Has to find his best but is up to this.
9. Niccoco: Maiden only winner. Has been backed in his last three starts. Simply too far back last start at Caulfield when given no chance. Looking for further and gets it today. Barrier 5 key.
10. Apocalyptic Fun: Surprise maiden winner two back. Well beaten in CL1 last start on the soft ground.
11. Chiatorio: Maiden winner on soft ground. Decent enough win on times but clearly has to improve here. Nice barrier.
12. Liquido: I think this girl has a lot more talent that she is letting on to most people. Just ignore the last start run and pushed back to 1400m here, I think she will find a good enough spot and be a winning hope.
13. Shining Star: Maiden winner on heavy. Two runs since have shown very little. No thanks.
Comments: A few key chances in this race with claims. Niccoco has every claim in the world today off a 100% forget run at Caulfield last start and should run really well after that 3rd down the straight… finding himself 3kg better off against Tyrannize for the run. Very happy with the price on offer today and i’ll be backing him. Liquido is a huge price in this. I have a big opinion of the horses ability even if the market doesn’t rate her.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Niccoco for 0.75 units @ $6.00. Liquido for 0.25 units @ $85/$14
Flemington Race 4
1. Renew: Has run a place (3rd) once in his last 12 runs (two preps). Should be going well here in the off season, but he certainly needs to turn around the last five runs form.
2. Leica Day: Continues to go through the grades this prep. Ground out the win last start at Moonee Valley. His fight told me he will have no issues getting the 2500m here.
3. Danjeu: He simply didn’t get the 2800m last start at Flemington. Disappointingly close loss there. Back to 2500m and he should be better suited to get the distance. Going more than well enough and this on paper looks a much easier race than last start. Will need a good ride to get in from the barrier… C Williams.
4. Quick Strike: Waller runner down from Sydney after having a consistent campaign not finishing outside the top 5 in his seven runs. Only win was in much easier but did go close in Listed grade two back. Clearly has ability but just needs to measure up here going the wrong way.
5. Lucques: Had his chances last start at course over 2800m and well enough beaten in third. Similar weight today while Danjeu goes up 3.5kg.
6. Purple Smile: A disappointingly hard to catch animal. Always runs a good race, but just seems to find a few too good. Hard to have him in this race.
7. Treasure Map: Been going around in country grade. This looks a step beyond him.
8. Ferro Nero: Nice enough win in much easier last start at Sandown. Going the right way this prep but straight up to 2500m and up into open class… could place but not convinced he can win.
9. Nippinski: Couldn’t win R-58 races this prep. Last win over 1200m. Get in the sea.
10. Dream Diamond: Couldn’t place in a R-58 race his last five runs in them.
Comments: 8 horse race when you take out the two horses that shouldn’t be allowed to run at the bottom of the weights. I think we also just have to take on numbers 6 and below as well in this class here with their ratings suggesting they aren’t very well weighted against a few other progressive types showing more ability. I think we have to take on Renew on all his runs this prep also. That leaves us with Leica Day, Danjeu, Quick Strike and Lucques. I can understand the want for Lecia Day, but this is another big step up today and the price isn’t much value at all. Quick Strike could be the real deal here but i don’t see the odds needed. Lucques hit the line well enough last start at course and is weighted to win. Looks the play if betting here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Lucques E/W
Flemington Race 5
1. Boomwaa: Not the most convincing run last start at MV in similar company. Back to Flemington where his best runs have come in the past two preps. Has the ability but is top weight for a reason.
2. Kirani: Running well this prep. Good win three back. Failed tow back then last start on speed never really a chance. 3kg claim. Never placed at track from 2 runs.
3. Bel Seal: Found nothing first up from a nice spot in running. Failed to place both runs at track and won just once from 13 runs in this class.
4. Liminal: Continues to run well without winning. Big drifter last start. First time down the straight.
5. Judges: Money came for him last start at MV but was beaten by a very good type in Sirbible. Should run well today.
6. Master Sommerlier: Blocked for runs last start at Sandown and fairly unlucky not to get the win on the run he had. First time down the straight but he was a nice 1200m horse over in HK and should measure up here off the previous runs. Two back 1L off Duke of Brunswick.
7. Cyclone Andy: Average run first up. Has won at track previously… but that was a long time ago! Not on previous prep form.
9. Sir Mask: Not the worst run 3rd at MV last start when ran wide. First time down the straight.
10. Smart Dart: Very good horse on the way up through the grades. Has a strong sprint and just keeps on going. Really think he will enjoy the track today. Big chance.
11. Star Stealer: Slowly away last start at MV when very well backed favourite and failed to win. Was green. Down the straight has very good form lines from previous prep then 3rd and 3rd in 3Yo grade.
12. Barcode: Continues to run well. Last start was horrible though and a forgive. Rate on two back runs. May have issues on pulling up badly last two starts.
13. Bawcatme: Ran well enough 3rd at MV last start. Much harder this and down straight first time.
14. Dan Zephyr: Proven to be a very nice type this and last prep. Good runs in Open class and jump back in class needed. Only issue is if the horse is best over the 1200m rather than 1400m.
15. Duibio: Good horse in previous preps including a very strong 3YO win at course over 1400m. First up run was average at best and best runs over further.
16. Samartested: Nice enough horse two preps back but last prep was horrible. Best runs over further. D Oliver onboard.
17. Not A Happy Camper: 4 runs for 1 place at track in the past and that was over further. Never won from 11 starts in this grade.
18. Lord Da Vinci: Goes well first up. Never gone ‘close’ at this track in the past and best runs over further.
19. Rock ‘N’ Gold: Nice enough runs this prep. Should have gone very close first up behind Sirbible at MV over 1200m and wasn’t disgraced behind Volcanic Ash last start. Can run a bold race.
20. Bascule: May have found his form again with a strong run second at Sandown last start. Goes well at this track. Respect.
Comments: Wide open race… probably one of the hardest for the day. I have such a high opinion of Smart Dart that I need to have a bet on here at the value price on offer. There are certainly several dangers in the race. I don’t expect them to back Smart Dart in either, may drift price wise.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Smart Dart for 0.75 units @ $16/$4.75
Flemington Race 6
1. Gold Symphony: Proved to be the real deal last prep with Group 3 wins and a very respectable 2YO 2nd to Jalan Jalan down the straight. Looks very well suited here.
2. Rocky Boomboa: Ran into the race and won well last start at MV. D Oliver keeps the ride. First time down the straight.
3. The Big Dance: Had every possible last start at course and similar distance but found a few too good. Respect her ability and will run better second up back to 1100m.
4. Hellbent: Oozes class this runner. Didn’t run very well in 3Y-GP1 class when 7L 8th to Japonisme over the Spring Carnival on the soft track. Got beaten a very short priced favourite as well the next start at Randwick. Despite all that, the horse has trained on by all reports and has to be respected… personally $2.50 looks a bit stinky to me.
5. Bitburg: Just missed last start at Rosehill in easier company. Was 1.5L off Hellbent at Randwick previous start and no excuses that day.
6. Grogans Anvil: Maiden only winner. Huge jump in class.
7. Apriano: Maiden only winner. Very average run last start at MV. Couldn’t have.
8. Tokyo Tycoon: Nice enough win first up in a maiden at Ballarat and then rather disappointing last start at MV behind Rocky. Needs to improve a lot.
9. Geoff: Did a lot wrong first up at Pakenham but still got the win fairly easy.. slow time run.
10. Dream on Monty: Couldn’t win a maiden heading into this (probably should have won last start to be fair). Previous prep runs not good enough to be a clear chance her on form.
11. Black Envy: Non-winner. No thanks.
12. Mossin’ Around: Ran very well last start at course behind Magna Rossabeating home The Big Dance. Down 2.5kg today also… weighted to win!
13. Maddie Moo Moo: Probably ignore last start and rate on previous runs. Still has to improve to be considered a chance.
14. Beyond Purple: Maiden winner. Time was okay but not anything to blow us away.
15. Poppi Rox: No thanks on form.
Comments: A few key chances here. Hellbent is a chance but well under the odds. My eyes have shifted to Mossin’ Around who is weighted to win and looks good value.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 12
Strategy: Mossin’ Around E/W
Flemington Race 7
1. Dances on Stars: Hard to ignore this talented bloke who doesn’t win out of turn. He ran VERY well 2nd in similar class at Randwick last start and looks to be going the right way. Goes well over 1400m and should be well suited here.
2. Tried and Tired: Ran nicely down the straight last start at course and step up to 1400m is ideal. Ready to win today.
3. Decircles: Old mates best distance is shorter than this but he does always run well at this track.
4. Kareeming: Best runs last prep over 2000m. Never won first up or at this track. Should run well but needs the run.
5. General Groove: Ran very well last start at Caulfield and should have finished closer. Two runs this prep have both been good. Has a win on his record at course and distance from the past but is yet to measure up to this grade fully.
6. Noela’s Choice: Went around big odds last start at course over 1200m and flew home for a respectable 5th. Up to 1400m and looks very well suited. Big chance.
7. Sarajevo: Frustrating horse. Had his chances the last two starts and hasn’t been able to get the win. Smaller group to get past today and should have every chance.
8. Zupacharged: Impossible to ignore him the last two runs flying home. Sectional star. Jump well today from the good barrier and he will be very hard to hold out. Up to 1400m is key!
9. Tudor: Looks out of class here. Take on.
Comments: While some have Zupacharged as their bet of the day, I’m happy to sit this race out confidence wise. I’m not as sold as they are.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 7, 8
Strategy: Dances on Stars and Zupacharged to win.
Flemington Race 8
2. Star Rolling: Every chance on speed last start at Caulfield over 1600m and not good enough. Up to 2000m.. but best runs recently have been over lesser distances than this.
3. Faust: Two runs this prep and found very little. Up to 2000m obviously well received for this runner wanting further, but best runs are later into preps than this.
4. Metaphorical: Big run last start at Caulfield and step up to 2000m looks a bit unknown here. Think from the previous two runs that it’s quite clear she has been trained on this prep for the further distances and wants this here. Big chance.
5. Oregon Spirit: Every chance last start at course and distance behind Second Bullet. Not here for mine.
6. Sabor A Triunfo: Not the worst return to the track this prep i have to admit with a good 2nd first up and then strong enough 4th second up with top weight. Down to 54kg and looks well suited here.
7. Inspector: Had every possible chance last start at Flemington when well beaten by Second Bullet. Has to improve.
8. Second Bullet: Looks very well weighted here today after a very strong win last start at course and distance even losing a plate. Suited.
9. Golden Mane: Did a few things wrong last start but still ran well. Has to improve for this.
10. Allergic: Had his chances from out the back last start and couldn’t close the gap on Second Bullet. Needs less speed on here.
11. Warrior King: Went around a short priced favourite last start at Caulfield and was well beaten. Huge jump in class here again… not for mine.
12. Rebel Rising: Decent enough run last start but looks outclassed up to this grade.
Comments: Very confident in the form line of Seocnd Bullet here. I think Allergic may get a better run today and is the main threat. Happy to back both runners.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 8, 9, 10, 11
Strategy: Back Second Bullet for 3 units @ $4.50. Back Allergic for 1 unit @ $5.50
Flemington Race 9
1. Grane: First run down straight last start and ran very poorly. Could have come to end of prep? Poorly weighted for mine… need to find his very best.
2. Rough Justice: Consistent type who never runs poorly at Flemington down the straight. 1000m is by far his best distance and stats prove it. Obvious and key chance.
3. Nadeem Lass: Not the greatest runner first up, but goes well over these distances having gone close at this track in the past in similar company many times. Best runs last prep though sadly were over further.
4. Danger Close: Had his chances last start and just not good enough. Down in the weights but has to improve and get lucky to win for mine.
5. Belesron: Unlucky 2nd last start at course and distance when blocked for a run at a critical stage costing him the win. Well weighted compared to Rough Justice here and looks the one to beat.
6. Pink Perfection: Won in the past down the straight but previous run was poor. First up run at Caulfield won very well in easier company.
7. Tansy: Making his way through the grades like most others here. First up run was strong 2nd but others better weighted.
8. Bullpit: Doesn’t win out of turn. Never run well down straight. Not for mine on current form.
9. Fab Fevola: Just ignore last start run when didn’t get tactics right onboard. Similar weight… don’t dismiss.
10. Sentfromthestars: Well beaten last start at Caulfield and up in class and weight. Decent run but needs huge improvement.
11. Single Days: 2 runs 0 places here in past. Alot wrong last start at Mornington.. has to improve.
Comments: Only way to approach this outside of dropping my wallet on Fabby here is to back both Belesron and Rough Justice to win.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 9
Strategy: Rough Justice @ $3.20 to win. Also back Belesron @ $5.4 to win.
